2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[SUPERBALLMAN]

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball ... -time-camp


Thanks Hands, this is what I wanted to hear! Nene used to throw down on people. If he can return to the player he was in Denver I think this team (if healthy) can compete with anyone.

[hands11]

http://www.csnwashington.com/basketball-washington-wizards/talk/nenes-health-rebounding-time-camp


Thanks Hands, this is what I wanted to hear! Nene used to throw down on people. If he can return to the player he was in Denver I think this team (if healthy) can compete with anyone.

There is clearly potential. I think their floor is higher but in order for a break out to happen, things are going to have to fall into place.

Clearly Nene is a big part of that.

Feels like Wall is going to be a pretty sure bet and unless something unseen happens, I see him playing 80 games and unleashing a can of whoop ass.

Beal just has to stay healthy, and since they rested him and he is training to strengthen his ankles, I feel pretty confident he plays more games this year. 75 games would be fine with me considering what he went through last year. I expect him to start the year nailing it from outside.

I think just those two and Okafor get you pretty far considering there is Webster, Trevor A, Al and Maynor, Temple and Glen. At a min Glen will shot from outside. No fear with him letting it go. Better then C Martin I think. So even without Nene I think they have something potent.

Gotta figure Nene is going to give you at least what he did last year. But if that's it, that's going to be painful to watch. He really couldn't get up much at all and as time went on, teams knew how to play him and he lost his mid range. But even as he was most of last year, he gives you something to stabilize the team. Even if its off the bench in limited minutes.

Wall, Beal, Webter, Nene, and Okafor, even with Nene injured was a very effective line up last year.

But Nene lighter and healed up 80-90%, that's going to make this machines whirl. Think Nene like he looked when he got him at the end of the previous season. If you have that, then anything Kevin and Ves give you is gravy and all the sudden the team looks pretty deep.

And that's not even talking about what Otto might contribute.

Its the most loaded team they have had in a long long time. Another big name FA obviously would be huge but if Nene recovers. Look out.

He and Okafor are only 30/31. That's not old. Actually, most deep playoff teams have at least a few players in that age range or even older. We have 3 players 30 or older. That isn't that many.

Everyone would love to have a MJ, Magic, LeBron in their prime, but unless you draft them ( Wall, Beal ) you're not likely to acquire them. But there are plenty of older players that are multiple AS's or HOF in the playoffs every year. PP, KG, Allen, Dirk, Duncan, Kidd, Nash, Kobe, Manu, Parker, Gasol, etc.

Nene is a step below most those names but he is a very solid big man.

[LyricalRico]

I like the way this team has shaken out. I like the young trio Wall, Beal, Porter as the foundation. I like the vets we have assembled around them with Nene, Okafor, Ariza, Harrington, Webster to stabilize the foundation while making it a playoff caliber team now, while the young trio grow and form into the future. In addition we have a group of young players like Seraphin, Booker, Singleton, Vesely, Rice, Maynor, which may yet yield another core piece or two for the future.

Beyond that, we have our future draft picks in tact, we have a bunch of expiring contracts providing flexibility, and the ability to pick and choose who we want to keep or if we want to add players via trades or free agency as we move forward.

Overall this team is in a pretty good place. Really we are just now reaching a point of full recovery from the big 3 overhaul / Arenas guns in the locker room recovery. IMO this is our 1 year since in terms of on the court. Next offseason will represent this franchises full recovery and return from the abyss, and when this team has the ability to start making major steps forward since Ted has taken over.

Couldn't have said it better. Nice to see someone acknowledging that the team has not only improved, but we're also well positioned to take another step forward. We could go into next summer as a playoff team with three under-25 starters in place, eight-figure cap room, and all of our draft picks. Really looking forward to seeing how it plays out.

[LyricalRico]

But Nene lighter and healed up 80-90%, that's going to make this machines whirl. Think Nene like he looked when he got him at the end of the previous season. If you have that, then anything Kevin and Ves give you is gravy and all the sudden the team looks pretty deep.

[doclinkin]

Looking at heat charts for Wiz players to find our most successful plays by which players.

Without accounting for fouls/free throws our best scoring options are:

Player/Shot......Points per shot
Tell R Corner 3FG: 1.75
Beal L Corner 3FG: 1.71
Riza R Corner 3FG: 1.54
Sera L Baseline 2FG: 1.33
Riza L Corner 3FG: 1.28
Tell Straightaway 3: 1.299
Nene (2012) top of key: 1.28
Nene in the paint: 1.2
Meka in the paint: 1.13
Beal L Baseline 2FG: 1.12
...

This all reads as gobbledygook, but visually it looks pretty pretty when scribbled on a napkin. But the upshot is offensively the best play would be a left-to-right pick & roll :

Nene sets the pick for John,
Beal and Tell post at the corners (57% and 58% from three)
KSera baseline left posts wide of the paint (hitting 66% on long 2's)

John and Nene are dangerous in the interior so defenders will collapse (60% for Nene underneath, 54.7 for John plus FT's usually) but both can hit from the top of the key if players collapse and give them the open shot (Nene in 2012 hit 64% from above the FT line, John hit 49% on jumpers from the R elbow. interestingly Seraphin hit 48% from John's favorite spot there, so that may be a useful pick and pop option if they work to develop it).

If I'm on the coaching staff I'd develop plays for the 2-man game between Beal and KSera along the left baseline especially working to catch the skip pass from Nene who runs offense well from the top of the key or rolling to the basket when John is trapped and Seraphin's man has to cover. Beal hits well from the left corner on in to the hoop so using the Big Guy(anese) to scrape his man free could also work.

On the opposite side Martell also should kill from the corner if his man collapses to cut off John's driving attack, or if they are caught looking he has good %'s all the way along the baseline if he cuts backdoor on penetration by either Nene or John.

Ariza duplicates the results of both Beal and Martell, with just slightly lesser efficiency so he makes the ideal back-up there.

I was surprised by Seraphin but his effectiveness on that baseline was a standout, albeit on no great volume of shots considering his minutes and all. Would be interesting to see if there was anything there, if only, you know, he would actually rebound the damn ball.

[dangermouse]

If there is one thing you can say about Seraphin, he definitely has 'the touch'. I'd just like to see him relax on the long twos and mix it up more inside. If he can become a threat on the pick and pop and the pick and roll, as well as in the post, that is a huge weapon for us off the bench. And rebound better of course.

[hands11]

PG -- Wall 36 -- Maynor 12 (sadly, I think the Maynor minutes will bite us...

SG -- Beal 32 -- Webster 16 (knowing Whit, he will get minutes in for Temple and not add any minutes in for Rice)

SF -- Webster 16 -- Porter 32 (I have to believe he will limit Porter's minutes - I think he would have limited Beal's minutes if he had a choice as a rookie) I think Ariza will get some minutes here...

PF -- Nene 8 -- Ariza/Booker/Harrington 40 (This is going to be weird - and is going to cause us to lose hair)

C -- Okafor 28 -- Nene 20 (And Seraphin will get minutes when Okafor and Nene miss a few inevitable games)

A lot will get decided this summer and into camp regarding the younger players.

Glen is real interesting. But he needs to improve his defense if Randy is going to give him steady minutes. They have Webster and Temple as other options. And don't count out Temple. I'm sure he is working on his skills over the summer. He finally made it. He is going to want to stay in the NBA.

The team finally has some decent depth with vets plus the two young studs in Wall and Beal. I won't be surprised if Randy starts the year like that. Specially with the tough schedule.

They could just roll like that. So Ves, Kevin, Otto, Singleton, Glen and Temple really have to step it up if they want to be a part of it this year. And of all of them, Booker is the one who could get plugged in off the bench easiest. You know he will rebound.

So it might work out like this.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Temple/Webster- Rice for Temple if Rice can play better D but even without, he can score.
Webster/Al/Trevor A
Al/Trevor A/Booker
Nene/Okafor

That's a solid vet rotation. Al is 6-9 and in his best shape in 5 years. Lost 30 lbs. Knee is fine. You want more D, put in Trevor A but hopefully Randy's scheme helps Al's D. And those vets have playoff experience. Trevor A played for a title team.

Ves and Kevin in the wings if you need more size or length. Kevin trimmed down to PF size this summer. He has better offense than Booker, he just needs to prove he can rebound. If he can, he could replace Booker. And if Ves gets it together, that just extra gravy.

Spread the floor. Ran 3s. Let Wall drive and give Nene and Okafor post room to operate. Booker for extra rebounding.

They can

rotate through PG/SG - Wall, Maynor, Beal, Temple, Rice, Webster
rotate through SF/PF - Al/Trevor A/Webster/Booker - with Kevin and Ves in the wings.
rotate center - Nene and Okafor - best center combo on the team in forever.

come back next year with

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Rice/Webster/Temple
Webster/Al
Dirk/Al
Nene/Okafor

Plus whatever if left of Otto, Trevor A, Ves, Kevin, Singleton, picks

Come back in two years with

Wall/Maynor ?
Beal/Rice/Webster/Temple ?
Webster
KD
Nene/Okafor

Playoff. Deep playoffs and title runs for the next 8 years.

[dckingsfan]

PG -- Wall 36 -- Maynor 12 (sadly, I think the Maynor minutes will bite us...

SG -- Beal 32 -- Webster 16 (knowing Whit, he will get minutes in for Temple and not add any minutes in for Rice)

SF -- Webster 16 -- Porter 32 (I have to believe he will limit Porter's minutes - I think he would have limited Beal's minutes if he had a choice as a rookie) I think Ariza will get some minutes here...

PF -- Nene 8 -- Ariza/Booker/Harrington 40 (This is going to be weird - and is going to cause us to lose hair)

C -- Okafor 28 -- Nene 20 (And Seraphin will get minutes when Okafor and Nene miss a few inevitable games)

A lot will get decided this summer and into camp regarding the younger players.

Glen is real interesting. But he needs to improve his defense if Randy is going to give him steady minutes. They have Webster and Temple as other options. And don't count out Temple. I'm sure he is working on his skills over the summer. He finally made it. He is going to want to stay in the NBA.

The team finally has some decent depth with vets plus the two young studs in Wall and Beal. I won't be surprised if Randy starts the year like that. Specially with the tough schedule.

They could just roll like that. So Ves, Kevin, Otto, Singleton, Glen and Temple really have to step it up if they want to be a part of it this year. And of all of them, Booker is the one who could get plugged in off the bench easiest. You know he will rebound.

So it might work out like this.

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Temple/Webster- Rice for Temple if Rice can play better D but even without, he can score.
Webster/Al/Trevor A
Al/Trevor A/Booker
Nene/Okafor

That's a solid vet rotation. Al is 6-9 and in his best shape in 5 years. Lost 30 lbs. Knee is fine. You want more D, put in Trevor A but hopefully Randy's scheme helps Al's D. And those vets have playoff experience. Trevor A played for a title team.

Ves and Kevin in the wings if you need more size or length. Kevin trimmed down to PF size this summer. He has better offense than Booker, he just needs to prove he can rebound. If he can, he could replace Booker. And if Ves gets it together, that just extra gravy.

Spread the floor. Ran 3s. Let Wall drive and give Nene and Okafor post room to operate. Booker for extra rebounding.

They can

rotate through PG/SG - Wall, Maynor, Beal, Temple, Rice, Webster
rotate through SF/PF - Al/Trevor A/Webster/Booker - with Kevin and Ves in the wings.
rotate center - Nene and Okafor - best center combo on the team in forever.

come back next year with

Wall/Maynor
Beal/Rice/Webster/Temple
Webster/Al
Dirk/Al
Nene/Okafor

Plus whatever if left of Otto, Trevor A, Ves, Kevin, Singleton, picks

Come back in two years with

Wall/Maynor ?
Beal/Rice/Webster/Temple ?
Webster
KD
Nene/Okafor

Playoff. Deep playoffs and title runs for the next 8 years.

Hmmm, working backwards. I just don't see anyway that Whit doesn't start Nene/Okafor. On the other side, if Beal is healthy Wall/Beal. And since Webster won the competition last year for SF - I think you have to assume he will be the starting SF (unless his injury is lingering - and that would be a great thing for Whit).

It would allow Whit to start either Ariza or Porter. It would allow Whit to slide Webster behind Beal and then behind Ariza. And Beal will go down again this year and that would allow Wester/Ariza to start at the wings backed up by Porter/Rice or Porter/Temple.

It still leaves us with the possibility of some very sucky minutes from Maynor (ok, I am hating).

And it leaves us with Seraphin getting some minutes behind Okafor/Nene at C

And some minutes with Booker/Harrington at PF.

[Dat2U]

If were starting anyone but Nene & Okafor up front then it's because of injuries. To start anyone else makes little sense considering the lack of quality options.

Webster is a lock IMO to start at the 3. You don't give him full MLE money to be a backup 2 and plus the synergy b/w Martell, Brad & John is already there.

Temple is the default backup 2 for now... until Rice is ready to take on the role if at all.

Porter is the 3rd string SF... I assume until he shows enough so that were able to trade Ariza without missing a beat.

Biggest question is who's going to be the 3rd & 4th bigs in the rotation? I see five guys fighting for two rotation spots. Problem is, outside of Booker, none of the five is really worthy of consideration. That's what's scary. If Okafor or Nene are down for any amount of time, out of the 5 backups, 4 of them are among the worst front court players in the entire league and the 5th is incredibly injury prone.

[nate33]

With Nene, I see Randy trying to accomplish 3 things:

1 - keep his minutes down to about 28-30 a game
2 - maximize the amount of time he is on the floor without Wall since he is our second-best playmaker
3 - have him finish games at center since Okafor can't hit free throws

With these three criteria in mind, I think it's entirely plausible that Randy elects to bring Nene off the bench. He can handle the last 6 minutes of the 1st and 3rd, the first 4 minutes of the 2nd and fourth, and the last 4 minutes of each half. That gets him 28 minutes with no stretch longer than 10 minutes, and it has him on the floor in crunch time. It also matches him up with 2nd string bigs for much of the game, allowing him to dominate even though he has lost a step. Finally, it allows us to put a better-shooting PF alongside Wall to help spread the floor for him.

Obviously, if this is the case, then someone else would have to start at PF. I don't know if that's going to be Booker or Seraphin (or perhaps Harrington or Ariza). We'll have to wait and see.

[LyricalRico]

With Nene, I see Randy trying to accomplish 3 things:

1 - keep his minutes down to about 28-30 a game
2 - maximize the amount of time he is on the floor without Wall since he is our second-best playmaker
3 - have him finish games at center since Okafor can't hit free throws

With these three criteria in mind, I think it's entirely plausible that Randy elects to bring Nene off the bench. He can handle the last 6 minutes of the 1st and 3rd, the first 4 minutes of the 2nd and fourth, and the last 4 minutes of each half. That gets him 28 minutes with no stretch longer than 10 minutes, and it has him on the floor in crunch time. It also matches him up with 2nd string bigs for much of the game, allowing him to dominate even though he has lost a step. Finally, it allows us to put a better-shooting PF alongside Wall to help spread the floor for him.

Obviously, if this is the case, then someone else would have to start at PF. I don't know if that's going to be Booker or Seraphin (or perhaps Harrington or Ariza). We'll have to wait and see.

Benching Nene to start, say, Ariza would be a pretty gutsy move. And maybe just crazy enough to work, as the saying goes. Let the game be a pure track meet right out of the gate, get the other team's starters winded, and then bring in Nene to punish their backups inside. It also has the side effect of limiting Okafor's minutes to the low 20's. Very interesting.

[nate33]

I don't think it'll limit Okafor's minutes. Okafor could still play the first 8 minutes of every quarter for a total of 32 minutes or so. Nene would be in the game whenever Okafor sits, and Nene would play alongside Okafor for a few minutes in the middle of each quarter.

It would look something like this:

Code: Select all

   First Quarter            Second Quarter
   2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
PF KS----------NH--TB------|NH----------TA----------
C  EA--------------NH------|EA--------------NH------

Repeat each half

EA = Okafor - 32 minutes
NH = Nene - 28 minutes
KS = Seraphin - 12 minutes
TA = Ariza - 12 minutes
TB = Booker - 8 minutes

Ariza would also get minutes at backup SF near the end of the 1st and 3rd quarters.

[Nivek]

Plus, Okafor the last time Okafor got to 32 minutes per game was 2010-11. Last season, even with Seraphin playing like ass behind him, he got just 26.0 mpg.

[nate33]

Plus, Okafor the last time Okafor got to 32 minutes per game was 2010-11. Last season, even with Seraphin playing like ass behind him, he got just 26.0 mpg.

Yeah. I figure 32 minutes would be the high side in any particular given game when everything was going right, Okafor was healthy, the matchups were ideal for Okafor's skills, there was no foul trouble, there was no garbage time, and nobody from the bench had an unusually hot shooting night that encouraged Randy to "ride the hot hand" at Okafor's expense. If 32 was the max in any given game, chances are, he'd actually average 25-28 minutes over the course of the season.

[Nivek]

That sounds about right for Okafor's minutes. Fits in with the trend of bigs playing fewer minutes than they used to play. And fewer minutes than guards and SFs.

[doclinkin]

I don't think it'll limit Okafor's minutes. Okafor could still play the first 8 minutes of every quarter for a total of 32 minutes or so. Nene would be in the game whenever Okafor sits, and Nene would play alongside Okafor for a few minutes in the middle of each quarter.

It would look something like this:

Code: Select all

   First Quarter            Second Quarter
   2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 |2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
PF KS----------NH--TB------|NH----------TA----------
C  EA--------------NH------|EA--------------NH------

Repeat each half

EA = Okafor - 32 minutes
NH = Nene - 28 minutes
KS = Seraphin - 12 minutes
TA = Ariza - 12 minutes
TB = Booker - 8 minutes

Ariza would also get minutes at backup SF near the end of the 1st and 3rd quarters.

You're neglecting the important addition of Stretch Al to the roster. George Karl played him 27 mins the last time he was healthy, trusting him to play a heavy role late in games. If he is back in shape I suspect he'll eat many of the Booker minutes, or even play as a small ball 5 to open the paint.

That's situational, not part of the regular rotation, but if you look at heat charts we can really open the floor up with Harrington posted wide right, Martell up top, and Beal in the left pocket. The addition of Harrington actually adds utility and possible PT for our no-range pseudo SF corps (Booker, Veseley) by opening space under the basket forcing opponent Bigs to chase.

Most importantly though the addition of a PF with range makes John Wall a more dangerous weapon. This fact alone will buy minutes for Harrington in our regular gameflow. Wall is our one mismatch in almost every game, anything that makes him a tougher cover is going to be exploited by our coaching staff.

[LyricalRico]

^ Exactly, doc. Harrington playing around 20 mpg and Ariza playing some spot minutes as a small ball PF pretty much takes Seraphin/Booker/Vesely out of the rotation. Assuming health, I think the only way Seraphin/Booker/Vesely see regular minutes IMO is if Webster ends up playing all of the backup SG minutes and thus Ariza ends up exclusively at SF.

[Nivek]

Denver had several good rebounders who could compensate for the fact that Harrington boards like a SF (4 guys on that roster who got better than 10 boards per 36 minutes -- well, 3 if you want to count Nene and Javale as one guy, which makes sense since they got traded for each other). The Wizards had one last season, but that one is Okafor, and he's a guy the Wizards chose not to use much in the 4th quarter. I don't see anyone else on the roster who's a likely candidate -- the last time Nene did it for a full season was 2007-08.

Harrington's 3pt shooting may be useful in situations, but he'll have to be able to do enough of the usual PF chores to avoid giving back whatever the Wizards might gain on offense. I think the Wizards would be better off in most situations using Ariza as a stretch four instead of Harrington. Ariza's a better player overall, a better 3pt shooter, and would likely do just as well on the boards as Harrington.

[Nivek]

^ Exactly, doc. Harrington playing around 20 mpg and Ariza playing some spot minutes as a small ball PF pretty much takes Seraphin/Booker/Vesely out of the rotation. Assuming health, I think the only way Seraphin/Booker/Vesely see regular minutes IMO is if Webster ends up playing all of the backup SG minutes and thus Ariza ends up exclusively at SF.

I think the Wizards will be making a HUGE mistake if Harrington is getting 20 minutes per game. It would be much smarter to give those minutes to Ariza if they insist on playing a "stretch 4."

[doclinkin]

Harrington's 3pt shooting may be useful in situations, but he'll have to be able to do enough of the usual PF chores to avoid giving back whatever the Wizards might gain on offense.

I'd happily make a gentleman's bet that Harrington plays more minutes for the Wiz than Booker.

Terms: I dunno. Say-- you write something I want you to -vs- the opposite for me.