Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[pcbothwel]

I mentioned the below in the Ariza thread and ill reaffirm it here. If you can use Ves/Singleton and take on a player like Bass. Then use Ariza closer to the deadline to get another player and an asset (pick or young player). I think you really set this team up over the next 2 years to make a run.

If I am EG, I realize that the team they have can contend (not will, can). Looking at the landscape of the league and our roster it seems the best move to make is to lock up Gortat and trade Ariza for depth plus an asset (pick or young player). Plan on competing with the following core guys for the next 2-3 years:
Wall
Beal/Martell/Rice
Porter/Martell/Rice
Nene
Gortat

At that point you would have had a couple playoff runs to get Wall, Beal, and Porter ready for big stage. Make a move in FA or via trade utilizing picks, players and cap room for the bigman to complement the backcourt.

[Ruzious]

I'd pass on Bass. He's a good backup, but that's it. So, why take away the flexibility for next season? Maybe we'll use the cap space next offseason on Gortat; maybe we won't. Since there's almost no chance he opts for extending his contract before becoming a free agent, we won't know until After he becomes a free agent.

I'd also pass on Evans. Yes, he rebounds well, and rebounding has been a big problem so far, but this team isn't going to improve by adding completely 1 dimentional players.

[tontoz]

Not interested in Bass. All he does is take 2 pt jumpers. He doesn't rebound, doesn't get to the basket and doesn't take 3s.

[fishercob]

I'd pass on Bass. He's a good backup, but that's it. So, why take away the flexibility for next season? Maybe we'll use the cap space next offseason on Gortat; maybe we won't. Since there's almost no chance he opts for extending his contract before becoming a free agent, we won't know until After he becomes a free agent.

You're thinking about this way too rationally. Try to think more like Ernie and then adjust your strategy and expectations accordingly. There's no chance we let Gortat walk after giving up a first to rent him AND we're going to do everything possible to make the playoffs and devalue that pick we gave up. So why not trade trash for Bass -- who is unarguably more useful than what we'd be giving out, certainly a competent bench big capable of playing with either of our centers -- and just keep Ariza?

[Ruzious]

I'd pass on Bass. He's a good backup, but that's it. So, why take away the flexibility for next season? Maybe we'll use the cap space next offseason on Gortat; maybe we won't. Since there's almost no chance he opts for extending his contract before becoming a free agent, we won't know until After he becomes a free agent.

You're thinking about this way too rationally. Try to think more like Ernie and then adjust your strategy and expectations accordingly. There's no chance we let Gortat walk after giving up a first to rent him AND we're going to do everything possible to make the playoffs and devalue that pick we gave up. So why not trade trash for Bass -- who is unarguably more useful than what we'd be giving out, certainly a competent bench big capable of playing with either of our centers -- and just keep Ariza?

You're probably right, but I gotta have hope. Thinking like Ernie is depressing.

[Dat2U]

I'd pass on Bass. He's a good backup, but that's it. So, why take away the flexibility for next season? Maybe we'll use the cap space next offseason on Gortat; maybe we won't. Since there's almost no chance he opts for extending his contract before becoming a free agent, we won't know until After he becomes a free agent.

You're thinking about this way too rationally. Try to think more like Ernie and then adjust your strategy and expectations accordingly. There's no chance we let Gortat walk after giving up a first to rent him AND we're going to do everything possible to make the playoffs and devalue that pick we gave up. So why not trade trash for Bass -- who is unarguably more useful than what we'd be giving out, certainly a competent bench big capable of playing with either of our centers -- and just keep Ariza?

That's a perfect explanation for what Ernie will do. I suspect a double down on the all-in coming. Of course, it backs us into a corner with Gortat. A soon to be 30 yr old C, while productive, probably isn't even a top 15 center who's looking for a huge pay day. I can already say with confidence that it probably won't end well.

I hate it though. I think were a competitive team for now... as long as Gortat/Nene/Wall/Beal are healthy. It's a fragile coalition of talent that could collapse with one bad ankle sprain or Nene's suspect pain threshold. Were about as stable as Albert Haynesworth with $21 million burning a hole in his pocket. I think its too early to say how good we are capable of being. I'd avoid making too many commitments beyond this season without getting a stronger feel for what the current roster can do and if we can get buy with such little quality depth.

[Nivek]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

[nuposse04]

I will slap a ho if they give ariza 32 million.

[fishercob]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

I think this is a tad too fatalistic. I'd expect them to give Gortat just the 3 years, but more money per season, maybe $13M-$14M. Or maybe he does get 4/$50M but the last year is a team option.

I'd be surprised if Ariza got 4/$32M here having just drafted Porter and re-signing Webster. I mean, I think the Wizards brass is stupid, but I don't that that contract would make sense to them.

[nate33]

Not that it's much of a surprise, but Wojnarowski is saying that Minnesota is looking to trade Derrick Williams for more win-now players.

Williams has sucked so far this year (PER of 8.5, ORtg of 94), but he is, at least in theory, the kind of young stretch four who could fit well over the long term. His salary is $5.0M so factor that when putting together a trade package.

Minny could probably use Ariza, who is a big time upgrade over Brewer. On the other hand, Ariza is easily a better player than Williams, at least right now. Are we better off over the long term with a 22-year-old Williams or a resigned 28-year-old Ariza?

I don't see Minny trading Williams for guys like Vesely, Seraphin or Booker. So it's pretty much Ariza or not at all.

[verbal8]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

That is a depressing scenario. Especially if it turns out that on a max deal Wall is overpaid. What if Beal is the real star and there is no way to add talent around him

[Dat2U]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

So we can go all-in for 45 wins while approaching the luxury tax. Yep, that's Ernie for you.

[nate33]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

I think this is a tad too fatalistic. I'd expect them to give Gortat just the 3 years, but more money per season, maybe $13M-$14M. Or maybe he does get 4/$50M but the last year is a team option.

I'd be surprised if Ariza got 4/$32M here having just drafted Porter and re-signing Webster. I mean, I think the Wizards brass is stupid, but I don't that that contract would make sense to them.

I could live with a scenario where we retain both Gortat and Ariza, provided that they're on 2-year deals. I figure someone will offer Gortat at least 4 years, $40M. Would he prefer to play here for 2 years, $27M? I don't know.

I think Ariza will get a full MLE offer from someone, equal to about $22M. If we offer him $16-18M over just 2 years, it's a good bet he'll stay here.

[nuposse04]

Not that it's much of a surprise, but Wojnarowski is saying that Minnesota is looking to trade Derrick Williams for more win-now players.

Williams has sucked so far this year (PER of 8.5, ORtg of 94), but he is, at least in theory, the kind of young stretch four who could fit well over the long term. His salary is $5.0M so factor that when putting together a trade package.

Minny could probably use Ariza, who is a big time upgrade over Brewer. On the other hand, Ariza is easily a better player than Williams, at least right now. Are we better off over the long term with a 22-year-old Williams or a resigned 28-year-old Ariza?

I don't see Minny trading Williams for guys like Vesely, Seraphin or Booker. So it's pretty much Ariza or not at all.

I'd do Ariza+seraphin+'Booker for for Williams and Dieng. I still think Williams can do well in this league. He's got a 9'0 standing reach and a good strong frame. I don't buy the notion that he's a classic tweener. He needs a defined role. Also Dieng is an upgrade over Seraphin. I imagine Minny would ask for some sort of protected 1st.

[Dat2U]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

That is a depressing scenario. Especially if it turns out that on a max deal Wall is overpaid. What if Beal is the real star and there is no way to add talent around him

I don't know why people keep treating Wall like he's being paid Carmelo type money. Like his salary alone is not going to hold us back.

It's not even the real max. If he's nothing more than a very good PG that gives us 18 & 9 PG with a PER around 20, then he's still pretty damn special. Considering he's still 23... I have hope he will continue to improve to actually start earning that deal that begins paying him next year.

[Dat2U]

I've been saying since the trade that the Wizards will pitch themselves as establishing continuity when they announce the re-signings next summer of Gortat (4 years, $50 million), and Ariza (4 years, $32 million). Then they'll go shopping for frontcourt depth (and maybe a backup PG) with the MLE.

I think this is a tad too fatalistic. I'd expect them to give Gortat just the 3 years, but more money per season, maybe $13M-$14M. Or maybe he does get 4/$50M but the last year is a team option.

I'd be surprised if Ariza got 4/$32M here having just drafted Porter and re-signing Webster. I mean, I think the Wizards brass is stupid, but I don't that that contract would make sense to them.

I could live with a scenario where we retain both Gortat and Ariza, provided that they're on 2-year deals. I figure someone will offer Gortat at least 4 years, $40M. Would he prefer to play here for 2 years, $27M? I don't know.

I think Ariza will get a full MLE offer from someone, equal to about $22M. If we offer him $16-18M over just 2 years, it's a good bet he'll stay here.

My expectation is that Gortat will get a four year deal and Ernie/Ted will be forced to bite the bullet and pay it. If they don't. He's gone.

Ariza is a different story. I'd be shocked if he's back. What would that say about Porter if we not only keep Martell, but we also keep Ariza the following year? I doubt Porter is a 3rd string SF going into next year. Plus Ariza is probably looking for the most money out there. Either Ariza gets traded this season or leaves as a free agent in the offseason.

[tontoz]

My expectation is that Gortat will get a four year deal and Ernie/Ted will be forced to bite the bullet and pay it. If they don't. He's gone.

Ariza is a different story. I'd be shocked if he's back. What would that say about Porter if we not only keep Martell, but we also keep Ariza the following year? I doubt Porter is a 3rd string SF going into next year. Plus Ariza is probably looking for the most money out there. Either Ariza gets traded this season or leaves as a free agent in the offseason.

Agreed on both counts. Ariza is gone and we are going to make a big offer to Gortat.

[fishercob]

Williams hasn't shown me to be enough of an upgrade over Booker (to the extent that he is one at all) to be worth sacrificing Ariza -- a much better player right now -- for.

That said, I fully expect Ernie and Flip to trade Ariza for Williams. I can hear Ernie and Ted congratulating themselves now about how Williams is young, has upside, was a former #2 overall pick (wow!) is athletic, can play multiple positions (poorly), etc.

So what do you think it will be -- Ariza and Singleton for Williams and Shved or Williams and Barea?

[jivelikenice]

My expectation is that Gortat will get a four year deal and Ernie/Ted will be forced to bite the bullet and pay it. If they don't. He's gone.

Ariza is a different story. I'd be shocked if he's back. What would that say about Porter if we not only keep Martell, but we also keep Ariza the following year? I doubt Porter is a 3rd string SF going into next year. Plus Ariza is probably looking for the most money out there. Either Ariza gets traded this season or leaves as a free agent in the offseason.

Agreed on both counts. Ariza is gone and we are going to make a big offer to Gortat.

Agreed. Ariza is gone this offseason. They should view Otto as potentially a rich man's Ariza. If we strike out on a max RFA, then I have no problem re-signing Marcin on a short term deal based on what we've seen. At that point we should use the balance of our cap space on a 3rd big (maybe an amenstied player?) or a combo guard.

[Dat2U]

Williams hasn't shown me to be enough of an upgrade over Booker (to the extent that he is one at all) to be worth sacrificing Ariza -- a much better player right now -- for.

That said, I fully expect Ernie and Flip to trade Ariza for Williams. I can hear Ernie and Ted congratulating themselves now about how Williams is young, has upside, was a former #2 overall pick (wow!) is athletic, can play multiple positions (poorly), etc.

So what do you think it will be -- Ariza and Singleton for Williams and Shved or Williams and Barea?

I'm okay with getting an asset for Ariza. Whether it's devalued or not. I wouldn't mind giving Williams at least a look see.