Is Wall Top 5 PG?

hands11 · Post #141 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:12 pm

nuposse04 wrote:He has to get the TOs down but I think part of the problem is that he is running a flawed offense when the mid range 2s aren't falling. Whenever we run a 2 man game there is so little off the ball movement it seems I wonder how Wall racks up any assists.

That being said, Wall just needs to fix his TOs and he'll be a top 5 PG to me, right now he is around 6-7.

Also, knocking him for TOs last night given what he was playing through, seems kinda much.

Only thing that would keep him out of a clear top 5 debate is the framing of the question.

What kind of PG are you talking about. If you are talking about passing PG, Wall is clearly top 5. Add in the rebounding and steal and he is still top 5.

Its only a little more efficient scoring that is keeping him from being in the conversation for best to best clear top 5 regardless of what kind of PG you are talking about.

He is right on the edge of producing those kinds of numbers. Just a little more efficiency. And I think he can do that. That usually comes with experience. He is just 24. And winning like this is new to him in the NBA. He is still learning game by game.

dckingsfan · Post #142 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:18 pm

He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

hands11 · Post #143 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:26 pm

dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

tontoz · Post #144 » by **tontoz** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:34 pm

dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Interesting list. I have no idea how VORP is calculated but i do see that among the top 15 on that list Wall has the worst EFG and highest TOV.

I doubt Wall will ever be a good shooter but if he just shoots less and gets his turnovers under control he can certainly be a top 5 pg.

dckingsfan · Post #145 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:39 pm

hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Yeah, my argument is that 4-6 are really close, not much differentiation. I agree, I think Wall is already there.

Nivek · Post #146 » by **Nivek** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:42 pm

Turnovers ARE an issue with Wall, and it's not nitpicking to say so. This season, among all guards who qualify for the assists leader board, Wall has the third most turnovers per possession. The only guys with more are Tony Wroten and James Harden, neither of whom is a PG.

If I look at players who get 10+ assists per 100 possessions (minimum 150 total minutes played this season), Wall has the third most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Russell Westbrook and Michael Carter-Williams.

If I screen out the non-scorers (anyone below 25 points per 100 possessions -- Wall's at 25.7), he has the 2nd most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Westbrook. Here's the list:

Chris Paul -- 2.4
Kyle Lowry -- 2.8
Mike Conley -- 3.5
Stephen Curry -- 4.8
Jeff Teague -- 5.0
Lebron James -- 5.4
John Wall -- 5.8
Russell Westbrook -- 8.0

Higga · Post #147 » by **Higga** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:49 pm

When you have the ball in your hands as much as Wall does, turnovers are bound to come up. IIRC Steve Nash had a bunch of turnovers his MVP years as well.

Doesn't help that there aren't any other real good ball handlers on the team, besides Miller who is never on the floor at the same time as Wall.

Post #148 » by **nate33** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:51 pm

John Wall is the best defensive PG in the league going by ESPN's Defensive RPM

milellie111 · Post #149 » by **milellie111** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 3:51 pm

Wall is a winner and that's all that matters. Focusing on his turnovers after he single handedly won us the game last night is laughable.

Brett Favre was known as a gun slinger and was guaranteed to turn the ball over frequently. Interceptions were expected from him. Yet, he's still one of the greatest hall of fame QB's to ever play the game of football.

In this case, Walls positives definitely overshadows his negatives.

dckingsfan · Post #150 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 4:14 pm

Nivek wrote:Turnovers ARE an issue with Wall, and it's not nitpicking to say so. This season, among all guards who qualify for the assists leader board, Wall has the third most turnovers per possession. The only guys with more are Tony Wroten and James Harden, neither of whom is a PG.

Yep, he can't take that next jump until he takes care of the ball better. And so goes John, so goes this team.

So, it isn't close to nitpicking - it is essential for this team to move forward.

Edit: Higga's point notwithstanding, it is compounded by Beals lack of progress on the ball handling side.

Nivek · Post #151 » by **Nivek** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 4:43 pm

nate33 wrote:John Wall is the best defensive PG in the league going by ESPN's Defensive RPM

Hmm, where did I see that first?

Oh yeah.

I'm not using RPM, though.

Kinda interesting to see convergence between the methods.

Donkey McDonkerton · Post #152 » by **Donkey McDonkerton** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 4:51 pm

TGW wrote:
Although I'd like to him clean it up, it's really a non-issue at this point. He handles the ball 90% of the game. It comes with the territory.

This, it comes with the play. He has a few extra TO's, but we're winning and he's playing great.

Sluggerface · Post #153 » by **Sluggerface** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 8:33 pm

hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Eh, a lot more goes into TS than just raw percentages. It's going to take a lot to push the needle. As long as john continues to load up on mid range shots instead of threes, shooting better is only going to marginally increase his efficiency. The amount of shots he takes from mid range is the entire reason his TS is low in the first place.

Sluggerface · Post #154 » by **Sluggerface** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 8:36 pm

Higga wrote:When you have the ball in your hands as much as Wall does, turnovers are bound to come up. IIRC Steve Nash had a bunch of turnovers his MVP years as well.

Doesn't help that there aren't any other real good ball handlers on the team, besides Miller who is never on the floor at the same time as Wall.

Nash was also a ridiculously efficient shooter, which Wall is not. Wall has to fix one of the two if he truly wants to be a Lebron/Curry/CP3 level player. I'd suggest the turnovers because Wall is not going to approach anywhere near a 60% TS in this offense.

Post #155 » by **nate33** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 9:05 pm

Sluggerface wrote:
hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Eh, a lot more goes into TS than just raw percentages. It's going to take a lot to push the needle. As long as john continues to load up on mid range shots instead of threes, shooting better is only going to marginally increase his efficiency. The amount of shots he takes from mid range is the entire reason his TS is low in the first place.

In this last 5-game stretch, Wall has really dialed back the number of long 2's. It really looks like he's trying to avoid shooting at all in the first half, with the goal of tabulating double digit assists in the first half alone. Then, in the 2nd half, as teams play the passing lanes more, he's attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line. It's working for him. In the past 5 games, he is averaging 17.4 points and 14.2 assists with a TS% of .564.

I hope this is a change in tactics and therefore maintainable, rather than merely a fortuitous stretch of play based on poor defenses.

tontoz · Post #156 » by **tontoz** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 9:18 pm

nate33 wrote:In this last 5-game stretch, Wall has really dialed back the number of long 2's. It really looks like he's trying to avoid shooting at all in the first half, with the goal of tabulating double digit assists in the first half alone. Then, in the 2nd half, as teams play the passing lanes more, he's attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line. It's working for him. In the past 5 games, he is averaging 17.4 points and 14.2 assists with a TS% of .564.

I hope this is a change in tactics and therefore maintainable, rather than merely a fortuitous stretch of play based on poor defenses.

I noticed that too. It definitely looks like he is trying to curtail some of those long 2s early in the clock. Can't get an assist if you shoot without anyone else touching the ball.

We are still in SSST but it certainly bears watching.

dlts20 · Post #157 » by **dlts20** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 10:43 pm

if we go small then he's higher then that

hands11 · Post #158 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 11:11 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Yeah, my argument is that 4-6 are really close, not much differentiation. I agree, I think Wall is already there.

Yeah.. its a tight grouping there. Looks like if he just gets into .560 range that would end the Lowry debate which is probably why the TOR fans are so loud in trying to say Lowry is CLEARLY better, because its not really CLEAR at all. Its actually very closer depending on what you are focusing on. But if Wall got to .560, the debate would pretty much be over. Specially if TOR loses a few games and falls out of first.

And with Wall, he seems to keep raising areas of his game. Not many of us expected him to shoot the 3 like he did last year. That kind of came of of no where. That makes you re-evaluate his top end potential. In another year or two, he could be draining 3s like any good 3 ball shooter. Who knows. We never thought he had a chance to even be as good as he was last year.

He totally mastered PnR in just one year last year. Think about that for moment. He hardly did any PnR before Gortat. Which is one reason I really liked them picking up Gortat. Win Win. Got a center and Wall got PnR training by the best.

He is now mastering game pace and change of speed. He is just nibbling the corner on showing a floater.

And he hasn't even started to post players up yet. A Miller still a lot to teach Mr Wall and who better then the Professor to do it. Great pick up getting Miller. Another win win.

As good as Wall is, he might only be at 70%-75% of his max upside. The thought of that is encouraging.

hands11 · Post #159 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 11:14 pm

Nivek wrote:
nate33 wrote:John Wall is the best defensive PG in the league going by ESPN's Defensive RPM

Hmm, where did I see that first?

Oh yeah.

I'm not using RPM, though.

Kinda interesting to see convergence between the methods.

Watch out. PIFF is going to get you. :biggrin:

hands11 · Post #160 » by **hands11** » Tue Dec 9, 2014 11:17 pm

Sluggerface wrote:
hands11 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Eh, a lot more goes into TS than just raw percentages. It's going to take a lot to push the needle. As long as john continues to load up on mid range shots instead of threes, shooting better is only going to marginally increase his efficiency. The amount of shots he takes from mid range is the entire reason his TS is low in the first place.

Isn't that what I detailed ?

As for Nate's 5 games tally... :thumbsup:

Just has to keep it up. And I do think its a change in approach and one that I love to see from a PG. Get everyone else involved first. Then fill in where the team needs you. Thats how I like a PG to approach the game. And if the time comes that teams load up on that, that when you open the game attacking yourself. But always make them over commit to do that before you start taking a lot of shots as a PG.

I love it. I have been waiting for this kind of PG here forever.