WP: Nene out 6 weeks

[hands11]

House of cards

Hey, A Miller has a post game. Maybe the can play him at center

Amazing.

We are down to one center Gortat and the PFs are Singleton, AH and Booker and we might add Gooden.



Alright Singleton. Here is your chance to step it up.

[J-Ves]

House of Zards

[Dat2U]

So just one healthy C left. I wonder who backs up Gortat. Anyone have a link explaining Seraphins absence?

Small ball really is the only possibility at this point. I think we see Harrington at Center and a fair amount of Singleton at PF. Also probably a fair amount of 3 guard line-ups.

Then if I was a betting man, I'd run to my favorite bookie and bet the farm on the OVER on total points for this game.

[hands11]

So just one healthy C left. I wonder who backs up Gortat. Anyone have a link explaining Seraphins absence?

Small ball really is the only possibility at this point. I think we see Harrington at Center and a fair amount of Singleton at PF. Also probably a fair amount of 3 guard line-ups.

Then if I was a betting man, I'd run to my favorite bookie and bet the farm on the OVER on total points for this game.

Wizards going for 120 tonight.

[Nivek]

Out of curiosity, I estimated the Wizards odds of winning each game for the rest of the season using their full season averages, and then using their averages when Nenê has been off the floor.

IF those off-court numbers hold up, Nenê being out reduces their chances of winning by approximately 6% in each game. For example, in tonight's matchup with Toronto, I estimate that a full-strength Wizards team would have about a 40% chance of winning. Without Nenê, the odds drop to about 34%.

So anyway, here are the projected records if each game played out according to today's odds:

- Full strength -- 16-9 in remaining games to finish 45-37
- Nenê off-court -- 8-17 to finish 37-45

I'll update this now and then to see how things change the rest of the way.

[Dat2U]

Out of curiosity, I estimated the Wizards odds of winning each game for the rest of the season using their full season averages, and then using their averages when Nenê has been off the floor.

IF those off-court numbers hold up, Nenê being out reduces their chances of winning by approximately 6% in each game. For example, in tonight's matchup with Toronto, I estimate that a full-strength Wizards team would have about a 40% chance of winning. Without Nenê, the odds drop to about 34%.

So anyway, here are the projected records if each game played out according to today's odds:

- Full strength -- 16-9 in remaining games to finish 45-37
- Nenê off-court -- 8-17 to finish 37-45

I'll update this now and then to see how things change the rest of the way.

The 8-17 finish is probably still good enough to make the playoffs and get cake for everybody.

[payitforward]

Looking back through this thread, you can see a series of dire predictions -- the consequences of Nene being out were going to be bad, very bad.

Why? Because of what a good player Nene is, obviously, and how much all season we depended on his play to make the difference between wins and losses.

Well... counting the Cleveland game in which he played 21 minutes and then went down, we are 6-1 since losing him. Don't want to count that game? Ok, we're 5-1.

Now, what does that tell us? What it tells me at least is what seemed obvious all along: Nene is no longer much of a player.

Names don't win games. Numbers win games, and Nene hasn't put up good numbers this season. Biggest goal of the next several months should be to dump Nene for... cap space would be perfect. That plus picks would be even more perfect.

[Rafael122]

Looking back through this thread, you can see a series of dire predictions -- the consequences of Nene being out were going to be bad, very bad.

Why? Because of what a good player Nene is, obviously, and how much all season we depended on his play to make the difference between wins and losses.

Well... counting the Cleveland game in which he played 21 minutes and then went down, we are 6-1 since losing him. Don't want to count that game? Ok, we're 5-1.

Now, what does that tell us? What it tells me at least is what seemed obvious all along: Nene is no longer much of a player.

Names don't win games. Numbers win games, and Nene hasn't put up good numbers this season. Biggest goal of the next several months should be to dump Nene for... cap space would be perfect. That plus picks would be even more perfect.

We also play one of the easier schedules down the stretch so that has helped out a lot.

[fishercob]

Looking back through this thread, you can see a series of dire predictions -- the consequences of Nene being out were going to be bad, very bad.

Why? Because of what a good player Nene is, obviously, and how much all season we depended on his play to make the difference between wins and losses.

Well... counting the Cleveland game in which he played 21 minutes and then went down, we are 6-1 since losing him. Don't want to count that game? Ok, we're 5-1.

Now, what does that tell us? What it tells me at least is what seemed obvious all along: Nene is no longer much of a player.

Names don't win games. Numbers win games, and Nene hasn't put up good numbers this season. Biggest goal of the next several months should be to dump Nene for... cap space would be perfect. That plus picks would be even more perfect.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe our offense has improved and our defense has gotten worse without Nene, and that we have played an easy schedule in his absence. Trevor Ariza playing out of his mind has helped too.

I didn't expect an epic collapse without nene because I saw what you point out -- he just wasn't that productive.

It is a shame his offense has declined so sharply, as he really helps on D.

[Ruzious]

As was pointed out, the schedule is extremely easy, and Ariza is playing like a star - so we essentially have had 2 stars during the run. Also, we're no more injured as a team than most teams this time of year. It hasn't hurt that Gooden's been good Gooden the last 2 games - hopefully, he keeps it up. I choose to enjoy the winning rather than follow an agenda.

[Nivek]

The numbers when Nenê went down were interesting. My (primarily) box score derived metric (PPA) said Nenê was pretty average and suggested the Wizards would be able to get by without him. Losing would hurt a little when they went to the bench, but overall they wouldn't lose a great deal.

The on/off numbers suggested the Wizards would crater once they got through an easy stretch (the one they're going through right now). These on/off numbers suggested something like a 6-4 record in their 1st 10 games without him. If I recall my odds estimations correctly, they're out-performing that 6-4 record by one game -- that win against Toronto.

Back on Feb 24, I suggested that folks would marvel at how the Wizards don't miss Nenê very much based on thost 1st 10 games without him. And then...an 8-game losing streak (at least according to the odds estimating I did using the Nenê off-court numbers).

But, things change, of course. Those off-court numbers look different now, which is unsurprising. They'll look different tomorrow too.

As predicted from on/off numbers, the Wizards have been better offensively and worse defensively during Nenê's absence. BUT, they're also playing an extraordinarily soft part of the schedule. They would have looked good with Nenê on the floor, just as they've looked good without him on the floor.

There are some tests coming that will be interesting to see. I continue to think what I wrote over at the blog -- that Nenê's production is/was replaceable. That his absence would hurt the defense, but benefit the offense. That the net result wouldn't be hurt much by him being out. (And, they've probably been helped considerably by Seraphin being unavailable.)

Worth mention: so far this season, they've played the leagues 2nd easiest schedule. A perfectly average team playing against the Wizards schedule would be expected to have a record of 33-29.

[dobrojim]

Yes we have had a cupcake schedule of late but just after the AS break,
I think right around the time of the TOR game, the TV guys said we had
the easiest remaining schedule in the league. I understand just being in
the EC makes your schedule harder than the west. But am wondering
(not necessarily doubting) how we can have had one of the leagues easiest
schedules so far, and also have one of the easiest remaining schedules.

[Nivek]

Yes we have had a cupcake schedule of late but just after the AS break,
I think right around the time of the TOR game, the TV guys said we had
the easiest remaining schedule in the league. I understand just being in
the EC makes your schedule harder than the west. But am wondering
(not necessarily doubting) how we can have had one of the leagues easiest
schedules so far, and also have one of the easiest remaining schedules.

A) Don't listen to the TV guys.

B) If I recall correctly, around the All-Star break, the Wizards strength of schedule was actually about average.

C) The schedule from here to the end of the season will be a little tougher than it was over the last 7 games. The only "sure" losses remaining on the schedule are Miami tonight and April 14 (assuming the Heat aren't resting everyone), Portland, and Indy.

It pays to be in the East this season.

[Nivek]

With the changes in the on/off numbers over the past 7 games, the odds estimator suggests 11-13 more wins over their last 20 games. So, 44-46 wins total.

[verbal8]

With the changes in the on/off numbers over the past 7 games, the odds estimator suggests 11-13 more wins over their last 20 games. So, 44-46 wins total.

Cake for everyone!

[Kanyewest]

With the changes in the on/off numbers over the past 7 games, the odds estimator suggests 11-13 more wins over their last 20 games. So, 44-46 wins total.

Cake for everyone!

Where's the cake?

[fishercob]

Yes we have had a cupcake schedule of late but just after the AS break,
I think right around the time of the TOR game, the TV guys said we had
the easiest remaining schedule in the league. I understand just being in
the EC makes your schedule harder than the west. But am wondering
(not necessarily doubting) how we can have had one of the leagues easiest
schedules so far, and also have one of the easiest remaining schedules.

A) Don't listen to the TV guys.

B) If I recall correctly, around the All-Star break, the Wizards strength of schedule was actually about average.

C) The schedule from here to the end of the season will be a little tougher than it was over the last 7 games. The only "sure" losses remaining on the schedule are Miami tonight and April 14 (assuming the Heat aren't resting everyone), Portland, and Indy.

It pays to be in the East this season.

The SOS doesn't really matter outside the context of trying to judge the strength of schedule. Teams are never judged historically by their SOS the way they are simply by their record. The Wizards have no choice but the play the games the league has scheduled for them; if that results in an extra win or two over the course of 82, that's okay by me; we've certainly had our share of crap luck through the years.

How good the Wizards "really are" is going to be judged/determined by how they finish and, more importantly, how they fare in the postseason. If they fizzle in round one, they will be thought of very differently then if they go on an unexpected run to the Conference Finals.

[padovani31]

Hard week withoit him

[mohammed10]

Hard week withoit him

Agree. Now that Beal is injured, and the upcoming West Coast trip, I see us barely treading water...

[stevemcqueen1]

The only reason we haven't really felt Nene's loss is the inexplicable good fortune of Drew Gooden's play.

Sometimes Hail Marys get completed. Let's hope Gooden keeps beating the odds and producing at this absurd, unsustainable rate.