John Wall Appreciation Thread - Part III

Youheardme90 · Post #141 » by **Youheardme90** » Thu May 21, 2015 5:30 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:I think Arnovitz is correct. Curry, Paul and Westbrook are clearly ahead of everyone else. From the regular season, Teague, Irving and Lillard rate ahead of Wall in my stuff. In the playoffs, Paul, Curry, and Irving rate as more productive. In terms of capability, I would place Wall top 5. I don't think we've seen him play to his potential yet.

'Is it because the offense we run, or because he his still progressing as a player ?

Post #142 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu May 21, 2015 5:31 pm

Youheardme90 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:I think Arnovitz is correct. Curry, Paul and Westbrook are clearly ahead of everyone else. From the regular season, Teague, Irving and Lillard rate ahead of Wall in my stuff. In the playoffs, Paul, Curry, and Irving rate as more productive. In terms of capability, I would place Wall top 5. I don't think we've seen him play to his potential yet.

'Is it because the offense we run, or because he his still progressing as a player ?

Good question. Both, maybe. I think Wall can still shoot the ball better and reduce his turnovers. A modern NBA offense would likely help.

Dat2U · Post #143 » by **Dat2U** » Thu May 21, 2015 6:47 pm

Wall's stats need context due to offensive system and starting Nene/Gortat together all season & postseason. Unfortunately context gets lost when folks put together their top 5 or top 10 lists. I think he's 4th... clearly behind Curry, Paul & Westbrook but with context I put him ahead of Conley, Lillard, Irving (really, this is still an argument?) & Teague (can't believe anyone would truly believe Teague is better), Parker (apparently no one paid attention to how far he slipped this year) & Rose (you've got to be kidding me - why do people still think it's 2011?).

Severn Hoos · Post #144 » by **Severn Hoos** » Thu May 21, 2015 9:14 pm

Dat2U wrote:Wall's stats need context due to offensive system and starting Nene/Gortat together all season & postseason. Unfortunately context gets lost when folks put together their top 5 or top 10 lists. I think he's 4th... clearly behind Curry, Paul & Westbrook but with context I put him ahead of Conley, Lillard, Irving (really, this is still an argument?) & Teague (can't believe anyone would truly believe Teague is better), Parker (apparently no one paid attention to how far he slipped this year) & Rose (you've got to be kidding me - why do people still think it's 2011?).

I think you forgot Rondo. Clearly, he's knocking on the door of the Top 5, right?

What about Deron?

oh, and Nash.

Is Jason Kidd still playing?

Dat2U · Post #145 » by **Dat2U** » Thu May 21, 2015 9:19 pm

Severn Hoos wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Wall's stats need context due to offensive system and starting Nene/Gortat together all season & postseason. Unfortunately context gets lost when folks put together their top 5 or top 10 lists. I think he's 4th... clearly behind Curry, Paul & Westbrook but with context I put him ahead of Conley, Lillard, Irving (really, this is still an argument?) & Teague (can't believe anyone would truly believe Teague is better), Parker (apparently no one paid attention to how far he slipped this year) & Rose (you've got to be kidding me - why do people still think it's 2011?).

I think you forgot Rondo. Clearly, he's knocking on the door of the Top 5, right?

What about Deron?

oh, and Nash.

Is Jason Kidd still playing?

Yep, I nearly spit my drink out when I heard Isiah Thomas on NBATV a few weeks back (before the Dallas playoff fiasco) refer to Rondo as a top 5 point guard who could take over in the playoffs. It's crazy that folks that get paid to report on the league are still using scouting reports that are like 5 years old.

dckingsfan · Post #146 » by **dckingsfan** » Fri May 22, 2015 1:12 pm

John left off the All-NBA teams - now the question is, "is John Wall a top 3 PG".... next year?

tontoz · Post #147 » by **tontoz** » Fri May 22, 2015 1:51 pm

Wall definitely stepped up his game this year after a slow start. He took fewer early jumpers which really bail out the defense.

He still needs to cut down on the careless TOs. It would also help if he improved his 3 point shot. His form looks fine i just think he has a confidence issue.

dckingsfan · Post #148 » by **dckingsfan** » Fri May 22, 2015 1:56 pm

Who are your top 3 Pgs in the NBA, Steve? Too hard! There've gotta be four -- Chris Paul, Westbrook, Kyrie, and Steph. reddit

Smh...

Dat2U · Post #149 » by **Dat2U** » Fri May 22, 2015 2:41 pm

Kyrie apparently is going to ride LeBron's coattails into the sunset. He's done nothing to warrant mention as an elite PG. He's nothing close to an elite PG. He's an elite scorer and nothing more. It takes more than being a top notch scorer to be a great PG. Hell, LeBron is the real PG of that team.

tontoz · Post #150 » by **tontoz** » Fri May 22, 2015 2:51 pm

Until this season the Cavs had the worst record in the league since they drafted Irving. Even earlier in this season they were struggling until they got Mozgov/Smith/Shump.

Left to his own devices Irving will dribble around relentlessly looking for his own shot while his teamates stand around and watch. Playing with Lebron takes the ball out of his hands to the benefit of the team.

dobrojim · Post #151 » by **dobrojim** » Fri May 22, 2015 3:00 pm

dckingsfan wrote:John left off the All-NBA teams - now the question is, "is John Wall a top 3 PG".... next year?

Actually I would argue and/or my understanding is that he simply needs to be in the top 6 guards.
It turned out that they have a 1/2 combination on each team (1st 2nd 3rd) but that that is not
a mandatory outcome.

Post #152 » by **nate33** » Fri May 22, 2015 3:18 pm

Curry, Harden, Paul and Westbrook all definitely rank ahead of Wall. Wall had no chance of making the 2nd team or 1st team. For 3rd team, it was between Wall, Irving, Thompson, Korver, Teague, Butler and Conley. I would have gone with Wall and Butler.

The Cleveland Cavaliers went 2-8 in the 10 games that Irving played and James missed. That's all I need to know to know that Irving isn't as good as Wall. (In all those games they also had Kevin Love.)

Post #153 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Fri May 22, 2015 3:26 pm

dobrojim wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:John left off the All-NBA teams - now the question is, "is John Wall a top 3 PG".... next year?

Actually I would argue and/or my understanding is that he simply needs to be in the top 6 guards.
It turned out that they have a 1/2 combination on each team (1st 2nd 3rd) but that that is not
a mandatory outcome.

I was about to make the same point. I understand the reaction folks are having about Wall, but -- at least in my analysis -- I think it's fair.

Here are the top 6 GUARDS using total production this season (in my metric):

Stephen Curry
Chris Paul
James Harden
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Russell Westbrook

Barely behind Westbrook are Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson. Wall is solidly behind those guys in total production.

If I use the per possession PPA (what I normally report), Wall moves down the list, not up.

dat mentioned Teague's name as a guy nobody should believe is better than Wall. I feel like this is a repeat of the Cousins conversation. This season, Teague shot better than Wall from everywhere, shot more threes (at better percentage), got to the FT line more often (and shot a better percentage), committed fewer turnovers, and was effectively tied with Wall in blocks and steals. Wall got more rebounds and assists. On nearly identical true shooting attempts, Teague scored 1.7 points per 100 team possessions more. On nearly identical usage, Teague had an offensive rating of 112 to Wall's 105.

Wall rated slightly better defensively in my stuff, but a) Teague was no slouch on defense, and b) the difference between the two isn't enough to offset Teague's edge on offense.

Wall does a lot of "good stuff". But, the missed shots and turnovers count too.

Post #154 » by **nate33** » Fri May 22, 2015 3:45 pm

I remember Dat2U also pointing out that Teague gets a huge boost out of the floor spacing provided by Atlanta, and I agree. Give Wall Horford and Millsap on his front line and Wall would put up better numbers than Teague.

tontoz · Post #155 » by **tontoz** » Fri May 22, 2015 3:46 pm

Dat has mentioned the lack of spacing that may be holding Wall back but i think a bigger issue is that we don't have a legit number 1 option on offense. That leaves Wall and Beal trying to fill that role. Neither guy really has enough offensive skill to be a number 1 scoring option on a good team and their efficiency suffers as a result.

Post #156 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Fri May 22, 2015 4:07 pm

nate33 wrote:I remember Dat2U also pointing out that Teague gets a huge boost out of the floor spacing provided by Atlanta, and I agree. Give Wall Horford and Millsap on his front line and Wall would put up better numbers than Teague.

I agree in large part (not the shooting part, though -- at least not yet), BUT All-NBA is awarded for what guys have actually done, not what they might do if everyone had good floor spacing and got to play with Horford and Millsap.

Post #157 » by **nate33** » Fri May 22, 2015 4:20 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nate33 wrote:I remember Dat2U also pointing out that Teague gets a huge boost out of the floor spacing provided by Atlanta, and I agree. Give Wall Horford and Millsap on his front line and Wall would put up better numbers than Teague.

I agree in large part (not the shooting part, though -- at least not yet), BUT All-NBA is awarded for what guys have actually done, not what they might do if everyone had good floor spacing and got to play with Horford and Millsap.

I'm not so sure that's the case. I think people recognize that Washington is horrible without Wall to a much greater degree than Atlanta is horrible without Teague. I think that's a key factor why most consider Wall to be better than Teague. I just wish they would apply that same logic in the Wall versus Irving comparison, but sometimes points per game trumps all.

AFM · Post #158 » by **AFM** » Fri May 22, 2015 4:27 pm

inb4 2017 GB thread: "Wall couldn't win alone, had to team up with Durant"

Dat2U · Post #159 » by **Dat2U** » Fri May 22, 2015 4:32 pm

TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nate33 wrote:I remember Dat2U also pointing out that Teague gets a huge boost out of the floor spacing provided by Atlanta, and I agree. Give Wall Horford and Millsap on his front line and Wall would put up better numbers than Teague.

I agree in large part (not the shooting part, though -- at least not yet), BUT All-NBA is awarded for what guys have actually done, not what they might do if everyone had good floor spacing and got to play with Horford and Millsap.

Stats don't include a built in formula for context and that's why one must be able to see the circumstances around a particular player so one can truly assess the impact or importance of that player.

Without context, stats are basically worthless numbers that can tell you Hassan Whiteside is more productive than LeBron James (according to PER) or Cody Zeller helps his team more than Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, John Wall & LaMarcus Aldridge (Real Plus Minus) to name a few.

Jeff Teague can't hold Wall's jock strap IMO. I don't really care what the stats say. And I expect smart GMs would feel the same way .

DaRealHibachi · Post #160 » by **DaRealHibachi** » Fri May 22, 2015 4:38 pm

Dat2U wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:
nate33 wrote:I remember Dat2U also pointing out that Teague gets a huge boost out of the floor spacing provided by Atlanta, and I agree. Give Wall Horford and Millsap on his front line and Wall would put up better numbers than Teague.

I agree in large part (not the shooting part, though -- at least not yet), BUT All-NBA is awarded for what guys have actually done, not what they might do if everyone had good floor spacing and got to play with Horford and Millsap.

Stats don't include a built in formula for context and that's why one must be able to see the circumstances around a particular player so one can truly assess the impact or importance of that player.

Without context, stats are basically worthless numbers that can tell you Hassan Whiteside is more productive than LeBron James (according to PER) or Cody Zeller helps his team more than Jimmy Butler, Kevin Durant, John Wall & LaMarcus Aldridge (Real Plus Minus) to name a few.

Jeff Teague can't hold Wall's jock strap IMO. I don't really care what the stats say. And I expect smart GMs would feel the same way .

While I agree with your general point, the Wall vs Teague argument is way closer than the Whiteside vs LeBron or the Cody vs the rest (don't think you would find many who disagree with you on that).. So yes, in allot of cases stats don't really tell the whole story, but in Wall vs Teague's I would be hard-pressed to argue against Kevin's point.. (Wall doing more bad stuff than Teague does)

I will say that from a isolated player vs player standpoint, I would definitely choose Wall over Teague..