Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[TheSecretWeapon]

Why why why did we pay Alan Anderson $4 M for what is going to be perhaps a few months of service? ( we did the same with Josh Howard). It is the end of the year and Anderson has not even begun to get into game shape, when will he even be at 100%? I'm afraid we will get a big speech from EG/Ted blaming our bottom-feeding on injuries, thus giving EG a pass to head-up a post KD re-build.

Better question is why they even paid a fully healthy Anderson $4 million. I get that it's just a one-year deal, but Anderson was coming off the best season of his career and it was still way below average. There was no reason to pay a premium for him. None.

For sure last year was Alan Anderson's best year -- and by a lot! But I wonder whether you're relying on a recent look at his ppa in calling "way below average".

Yep, I'm using PPA. The Wins Produced result is a bit puzzling to me when I look at the inputs. Compared to average, Anderson shot better and committed fewer turnovers, but he rebounded and assisted much less. My guess is that the WP position adjustment (a feature I don't like) is doing helping boost Anderson's score.

I thought the pace adjustment in PPA (WP doesn't adjust for pace) might explain some of the difference, but the Nets were basically league average pace when Anderson was on the floor.

I include a "degree of difficulty" factor that WP doesn't, which accounts for a small part of the difference. If I applied it to his WP score, he'd be around .12 instead of .128.

Interesting.

WP48 says he was way above average last year -- .128 -- which would make his deal OK, if what you're looking for is a 1-year guy. And -- big "and" -- you had any reason to think he'd repeat that outlier performance. And -- another big "and" -- if he weren't 32 and therefore carried a way higher than average chance of being injured. If they knew he was injured and just thought it wasn't going to be serious or keep him out a big part of the season, that's worse. And, I wonder where a $4m salary sits on the bell curve for NBA SGs.

But, that's all "if what you're looking for is a 1-year guy." But why would a team like the Wizards w/ so few young assets go in that direction? When they could certainly have found a young guy or two to take a chance on -- Langston Galloway, who's playing very well for the Knicks, comes to mind. And, had Jordan Clarkson been on our roster....

I know we were all in for Durant, but I don't believe a couple of million $ would have been a difference maker. Instead we're paying Alan Anderson $4m to give guys a really fancy handshake when they head back to the bench. One of those "only Ernie" phenomena.

[milellie111]

Give credit where credit is due. No Beal, Nene, Porter, Gooden, Hollins, Neal or Anderson against Sacramento and we still managed to win big. And of course yet again Garrett Temple steps up huge with another great game. His contributions far exceeds his contract. What more could you ask for in building a team? Grunfeld appears to know what he's doing even if some fans don't see it.

[tontoz]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

[TheSecretWeapon]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

Dunno about you, but I'd also want a GM to sign players the coaches don't want and won't use, even when the team is incredibly short-handed due to injury. That way, the team could use just seven players to beat a sad-sack opponent in late December.

[Kanyewest]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

I agree that was a bad trade. Especially since Miller was the only guy seeing consistent minutes as a result of that trade and even then he was injury prone.

BTW, thinking about this further, I would also suggest that we bash other teams for not putting forth a better package for the #5 pick. The Trail Blazers who were not willing to part with either Batum or Fernandez. The Spurs were not willing to part with Ginobli for the #5 pick (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2009/06/more_trade_rumors.html). Or perhaps a team like OKC could have swooped in and offered Jeff Green, or better yet taken Curry over Harden.

[closg00]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

I agree that was a bad trade. Especially since Miller was the only guy seeing consistent minutes as a result of that trade and even then he was injury prone.

BTW, thinking about this further, I would also suggest that we bash other teams for not putting forth a better package for the #5 pick. The Trail Blazers who were not willing to part with either Batum or Fernandez. The Spurs were not willing to part with Ginobli for the #5 pick (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2009/06/more_trade_rumors.html). Or perhaps a team like OKC could have swooped in and offered Jeff Green, or better yet taken Curry over Harden.

Why should we bash other teams for not being as foolish as EG was, that's pretty funny. Your link didn't work btw.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Nah, you criticize the guy who made a proactive move to trade the pick, not teams who decided not to give up something to get the pick. Grunfeld surveyed that year's draft and decided that Randy Foye and Mike Miller would be worth more to the franchise than anyone he could select with the draft pick.

[colts18]

Does anyone here have any links to this forum or articles discussing the realistic #5 picks for the Wizards that draft. Would be helpful for pre-draft ones, and ones post-draft when we knew who was available at #5. From my impression, no one thought Rubio would be available at #5. So it was a surprise when he made it there. Was there any Curry talk at #5 pre-draft?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Does anyone here have any links to this forum or articles discussing the realistic #5 picks for the Wizards that draft. Would be helpful for pre-draft ones, and ones post-draft when we knew who was available at #5. From my impression, no one thought Rubio would be available at #5. So it was a surprise when he made it there. Was there any Curry talk at #5 pre-draft?

That year's draft thread is here.
There's talk right from the start about Stephen Curry and Ricky Rubio. Doc mentions Patty Mills on page one. On December 1, 2008, Dat describes Curry as "damn near a perfect player."

There's at least one more thread somewhere about that draft, but search function isn't working for me and I'm tired of googling.

[TGW]

The sad part is that Stephen Curry came in for a workout, and they loved him. Flip Saunders raved about how smart he was.

Yet Grunfeld still decided on Mike Miller. Lol

[milellie111]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

And in 2011 if any other GM held that same draft position as Grunfeld had, they would have picked Jan also based on scouting reports. It's not as if Grunfeld reached. It was the safest pick that made sense for the needs of the team going forward.

How about bringing up the 2012 draft, when some here wanted Kidd-Gilchrist over Beal?

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1190264#start_here

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=32319443#p32319443

just take MKG at 3

Aren't we glad Grunfeld stuck to the plan and made the right pick?


Or how about analyzing 2013? Aren't you glad Grunfeld made the right pick with Porter instead of listenting to the "realgm's" to reach for Noel whom we would not have a need for with Gortat playing so much better? Aren't you impressed that Porter is playing better than Zeller, Len, and even Bennett, the #1 overall pick?

Funny how your logic used to discredit Grunfeld is the same logic used to give him credit and prove doubters wrong.

[nuposse04]

Mkg has been a better player to date then Beal. Not a better shooter, but a better overall player. I don't fault EG tho for picking Beal. That seemed like the right choice at the time.

[nuposse04]

Also, the signing of a wing player in J. Eddie is long overdue given that we are so injured but it may also mean Porter may be out longer or maybe one of Gooden/Nene are returning soon.

[colts18]

Does anyone here have any links to this forum or articles discussing the realistic #5 picks for the Wizards that draft. Would be helpful for pre-draft ones, and ones post-draft when we knew who was available at #5. From my impression, no one thought Rubio would be available at #5. So it was a surprise when he made it there. Was there any Curry talk at #5 pre-draft?

That year's draft thread is here.
There's talk right from the start about Stephen Curry and Ricky Rubio. Doc mentions Patty Mills on page one. On December 1, 2008, Dat describes Curry as "damn near a perfect player."

There's at least one more thread somewhere about that draft, but search function isn't working for me and I'm tired of googling.

Here is the draft thread from that year

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=918196#start_here

Seems like a disappointment that we made the trade a few days before the draft.

And this poster had the best ability to predict

Part of me is saddened that we won't be getting Curry or Rubio.

[tontoz]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

And in 2011 if any other GM held that same draft position as Grunfeld had, they would have picked Jan also based on scouting reports. It's not as if Grunfeld reached. It was the safest pick that made sense for the needs of the team going forward.

How about bringing up the 2012 draft, when some here wanted Kidd-Gilchrist over Beal?

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1190264#start_here

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=32319443#p32319443

just take MKG at 3

Aren't we glad Grunfeld stuck to the plan and made the right pick?


Or how about analyzing 2013? Aren't you glad Grunfeld made the right pick with Porter instead of listenting to the "realgm's" to reach for Noel whom we would not have a need for with Gortat playing so much better? Aren't you impressed that Porter is playing better than Zeller, Len, and even Bennett, the #1 overall pick?

Funny how your logic used to discredit Grunfeld is the same logic used to give him credit and prove doubters wrong.

First of all Beal was the majority choice of posters on the board. Secondly MKG wasn't even available at 3. And it isn't clear who is better between Beal/MKG or Porter/Noel. I was for drafting Beal but at this point I would prefer they trade him before the deadline or let him walk rather than resign him.

On the other hand it is pretty clear that Curry is more valuable than Foye/Miller.

At the 2011 draft Vesely was voted on here as the one guy we didn't want to draft. A big that is weak, can't shoot and can't rebound isn't likely to succeed.

[TheSecretWeapon]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

And in 2011 if any other GM held that same draft position as Grunfeld had, they would have picked Jan also based on scouting reports. It's not as if Grunfeld reached. It was the safest pick that made sense for the needs of the team going forward.

How about bringing up the 2012 draft, when some here wanted Kidd-Gilchrist over Beal?

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1190264#start_here

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=32319443#p32319443

just take MKG at 3

Aren't we glad Grunfeld stuck to the plan and made the right pick?


Or how about analyzing 2013? Aren't you glad Grunfeld made the right pick with Porter instead of listenting to the "realgm's" to reach for Noel whom we would not have a need for with Gortat playing so much better? Aren't you impressed that Porter is playing better than Zeller, Len, and even Bennett, the #1 overall pick?

Funny how your logic used to discredit Grunfeld is the same logic used to give him credit and prove doubters wrong.

First of all Beal was the majority choice of posters on the board. Secondly MKG wasn't even available at 3. And it isn't clear who is better between Beal/MKG or Porter/Noel. I was for drafting Beal but at this point I would prefer they trade him before the deadline or let him walk rather than resign him.

On the other hand it is pretty clear that Curry is more valuable than Foye/Miller.

At the 2011 draft Vesely was voted on here as the one guy we didn't want to draft. A big that is weak, can't shoot and can't rebound isn't likely to succeed.

And third of all, before the shoulder injury, MKG was better than Beal.

[pineappleheadindc]

.

RealGM Wizards board BEFORE the 2011 draft -- who do you NOT want to draft.

Wizards board members: Don't draft Vesely

Ernie: Heck with you guys.

#ThanksErnie

[Kanyewest]

EG had 2 first round picks in the 2011 draft. Both guys were out of the NBA in 3 years. Blatche and Maynor were still getting paid from their NBA contracts when they weren't even in the NBA thanks to EG. He traded the draft rights to the current MVP for a couple of expiring contracts. What more could you want in a GM?

I agree that was a bad trade. Especially since Miller was the only guy seeing consistent minutes as a result of that trade and even then he was injury prone.

BTW, thinking about this further, I would also suggest that we bash other teams for not putting forth a better package for the #5 pick. The Trail Blazers who were not willing to part with either Batum or Fernandez. The Spurs were not willing to part with Ginobli for the #5 pick (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2009/06/more_trade_rumors.html). Or perhaps a team like OKC could have swooped in and offered Jeff Green, or better yet taken Curry over Harden.

Why should we bash other teams for not being as foolish as EG was, that's pretty funny. Your link didn't work btw.

Scroll down...

More Trade Rumors
As I've stated before, this time of year, there are several rumors that get floated around, names get mentioned, people start to get in a tizzy. One minute it's Ricky Rubio, then it's Amare Stoudemire, then it's Josh Howard. Now, the latest is talk about the Washington Wizards having a deal on the table for Manu Ginobili for a package involving the No. 5 pick.

The website, Hoopsworld, has a purely speculative story about it and now it's all over the Internet. I still don't know what the big deal is. Until I see something meaty, there really is no need to overreact.

From what I hear, this is what went down: The San Antonio Spurs contacted the Wizards to inquire about what it what it would take to get the fifth pick. The Wizards' response was Ginobili -- and that was the end of the discussion. That's not exactly a trade proposal or a deal on the table.

Other than Ginobili the Spurs really don't have much to offer. As one team source told me, "They don't have a thing for [No.] 5."

The San Antonio Express News' Buck Harvey wrote a column this week in which Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich said the team is not considering moving Ginobili, although his ankle injury has derailed San Antonio's past two postseason runs and he will be a free agent in 2010. Popovich said, "People get in trouble when they say never. But Manu Ginobili is someone I cannot envision trading. He has been such a huge part of our heart and soul; people like that are hard to come by. You don't even think about trading somebody like that. I can't imagine a scenario where he would be traded."

The Wizards know this, which why they made that reply. Does the mean that Ginobili won't be traded? No. The Wizards have made it pretty clear that they are open to moving the pick. So, rest assured, this will not be the last trade rumor between now and June 25.

BTW, if we are bashing the Wizards for not taking Curry, most people on this board in the 2009 draft thread said that we should take Rubio.

I would love to get a GM that is willing to use its 2nd round picks though instead of trading them for cash.

[closg00]

Give credit where credit is due. No Beal, Nene, Porter, Gooden, Hollins, Neal or Anderson against Sacramento and we still managed to win big. And of course yet again Garrett Temple steps up huge with another great game. His contributions far exceeds his contract. What more could you ask for in building a team? Grunfeld appears to know what he's doing even if some fans don't see it.

After twelve years EG "appears" to know what heis doing? At-least you inserted a qualifier. EG n-part, put the organization in this position because of his own incompetence. Remember Webster? Oh-yeah, Ted had to once-again pay-out to clean-up his GM's botched, 4-year contract on a player with a history of back issues. In the off-season what does EG do? He gives $4 Million dollars to another injured guard, this one requiring ankle surgery, we may never see a fully healthy Anderson. No Webster, no Anderson, both mistakes easily avoidable. Being two-men (guards) down already because of incompetence, there was no-room for injuries. Ted should be asking a lot more from his GM.

[tontoz]

After 5 years? of rebuilding we are only a few million below the luxury tax, but still under .500. Well done EG.