Bradley Beal - Part III

[dckingsfan]

He can BECOME a borderline all-star, but he's a long way from EARNING all-star status.

At year 4, how many other guards are better than him from year 1-4?

The follow list is players 6-7 or under who are in their 1-4th year and are posting a WS/48 greater than .080 while playing at least 1000 minutes:



(Beal's WS/48 is .071)

Got it - yep, not a top 10 among his peers... certainly not against the entire league.

[pcbothwel]

I agree with DC here. I can forgive the drop in 3p% in the short term so long as he keeps seeing the floor/passing and attacking the basket. One thing to note is that while his handles are average at best, he does show great timing and efficiency in his footwork as well as understanding spacing, change of speed, and vision when driving to the basket.
He is very smooth and if we see his handles catch up, he would really do damage in getting to the basket.
No reason not to max him if needed. We can always dump him like the Magic did with Harris if we really want to.

[nate33]

It's really hard for me to say that Matthew Delladova is better than Beal. Or Langston Galloway.

Oh, I agree. WS/48 isn't a perfect stat, but it is a reasonably objective measure of his box score impact. You obviously have to factor non box score issues like his role on the team, his non box score defensive ability, the attention he draws from defenses, etc.

I have no problems with arguing that he is better than all but the top 4 or 5 names on the list. The real point is that even if he is a bit better, he certainly hasn't dramatically separated himself from a bunch of other relatively young, ordinary players.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Out of curiosity, I looked at Beal compared to other young players through PPA. Cutoffs: 24 or under; 500+ minutes this season; designated by b-r as PG, SG or SF). Through the All-Star break, Beal ranked 8th this season among that group.

1. Kawhi 267
2. Irving 159
3. Porter 130
4. McCollum 117
5. Barnes 114
6. Middleton 112
7. Antekokounmpo 111
8. Roberson/Beal 108
9. McConnell/Lamb, Fournier 105
10. Oladipo 98

If I look at total production among this age/position group, Beal drops to 23rd due to injury.

This is the first time in a while Beal's production has poked above the average line. I'll be curious to see what it is when I have time to update again.

[DCZards]

It's really hard for me to say that Matthew Delladova is better than Beal. Or Langston Galloway.

Not to mention that Delladova is 25 years old and Galloway is 24, while Beal is 22.

[dckingsfan]

Out of curiosity, I looked at Beal compared to other young players through PPA. Cutoffs: 24 or under; 500+ minutes this season; designated by b-r as PG, SG or SF). Through the All-Star break, Beal ranked 8th this season among that group.

1. Kawhi 267
2. Irving 159
3. Porter 130
4. McCollum 117
5. Barnes 114
6. Middleton 112
7. Antekokounmpo 111
8. Roberson/Beal 108
9. McConnell/Lamb, Fournier 105
10. Oladipo 98

If I look at total production among this age/position group, Beal drops to 23rd due to injury.

This is the first time in a while Beal's production has poked above the average line. I'll be curious to see what it is when I have time to update again.

So, do you give him a max contract?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Out of curiosity, I looked at Beal compared to other young players through PPA. Cutoffs: 24 or under; 500+ minutes this season; designated by b-r as PG, SG or SF). Through the All-Star break, Beal ranked 8th this season among that group.

1. Kawhi 267
2. Irving 159
3. Porter 130
4. McCollum 117
5. Barnes 114
6. Middleton 112
7. Antekokounmpo 111
8. Roberson/Beal 108
9. McConnell/Lamb, Fournier 105
10. Oladipo 98

If I look at total production among this age/position group, Beal drops to 23rd due to injury.

This is the first time in a while Beal's production has poked above the average line. I'll be curious to see what it is when I have time to update again.

So, do you give him a max contract?

Absolutely not.

[DCZards]

Out of curiosity, I looked at Beal compared to other young players through PPA. Cutoffs: 24 or under; 500+ minutes this season; designated by b-r as PG, SG or SF). Through the All-Star break, Beal ranked 8th this season among that group.

1. Kawhi 267
2. Irving 159
3. Porter 130
4. McCollum 117
5. Barnes 114
6. Middleton 112
7. Antekokounmpo 111
8. Roberson/Beal 108
9. McConnell/Lamb, Fournier 105
10. Oladipo 98

If I look at total production among this age/position group, Beal drops to 23rd due to injury.

This is the first time in a while Beal's production has poked above the average line. I'll be curious to see what it is when I have time to update again.

So, do you give him a max contract?

No...based on those numbers. But numbers and stats won't be the only determining factor in whether Beal is offered a max contract by the Zards...or another team.

[dckingsfan]

No...based on those numbers. But numbers and stats won't be the only determining factor in whether Beal is offered a max contract by the Zards...or another team.

The other determining factor being Ernie Grunfeld?

[DCZards]

No...based on those numbers. But numbers and stats won't be the only determining factor in whether Beal is offered a max contract by the Zards...or another team.

The other determining factor being Ernie Grunfeld?

There are a lot of other determining factors, including health, work ethic, perceived upside, etc.

[CobraCommander]

Out of curiosity, I looked at Beal compared to other young players through PPA. Cutoffs: 24 or under; 500+ minutes this season; designated by b-r as PG, SG or SF). Through the All-Star break, Beal ranked 8th this season among that group.

1. Kawhi 267
2. Irving 159
3. Porter 130
4. McCollum 117
5. Barnes 114
6. Middleton 112
7. Antekokounmpo 111
8. Roberson/Beal 108
9. McConnell/Lamb, Fournier 105
10. Oladipo 98

If I look at total production among this age/position group, Beal drops to 23rd due to injury.

This is the first time in a while Beal's production has poked above the average line. I'll be curious to see what it is when I have time to update again.

So, do you give him a max contract?

Absolutely not.

Once again ABSOLUTELY NOT- Beal (maybe not his fault because of injury) has to prove himself and he simply hasn't. Beal is still ALL potential but he hasn't done anything at all. Beal can't be depended on to be our second best player because he of his health.

Another real question...should you be a max player before you make a single AllStar game? I know there have been other players that have been max players before making an AllStar game...but should there be?

[AFM]

I actually can't wait for this summer, this board is going to shut down when EG offers Beal the max. LMAO! And yes, I did say EG, cus he aint getting fired, and you're in a lala-land if you think he will be!

[thricethefun]

You guys realize you can just trade Beal the next season if you offer him the max and you wan't to go in another direction. Losing him for nothing would be the worst possible scenario. You always resign your assets to keep them as assets to do with as you like.

[dckingsfan]

You guys realize you can just trade Beal the next season if you offer him the max and you wan't to go in another direction. Losing him for nothing would be the worst possible scenario. You always resign your assets to keep them as assets to do with as you like.

And EG will package a first with Beal to get rid of him

[nate33]

I actually can't wait for this summer, this board is going to shut down when EG offers Beal the max. LMAO! And yes, I did say EG, cus he aint getting fired, and you're in a lala-land if you think he will be!

I'm fully prepared for them to match a max offer for Beal. It's an overpay, but the team simply isn't in a position to let him walk - not when the only way to replace him is to tap the same overpaid talent pool in free agency.

Letting him walk might be prudent over the long term, but with John Wall having only so many prime years left, I don't see the organization taking a step back now in order to take two steps forward at some future date.

Keeping EG will make my head explode though.

[payitforward]

No...based on those numbers. But numbers and stats won't be the only determining factor in whether Beal is offered a max contract by the Zards...or another team.

The other determining factor being Ernie Grunfeld?

There are a lot of other determining factors, including health, work ethic, perceived upside, etc.

If he gets a max offer from another team, it seems almost certain to me that Ernie will match. Someone else making the offer first protects him from judgement if it turns out to be an over-pay (very likely).

To me at least, that makes it likely he won't *offer* Beal a max contract up front -- he has little incentive to do that. Ernie *always* covers his a@@ first.

[payitforward]

Somehow I missed Nate's post just above mine -- I said about the same thing.... 'Great minds', you know.

[CobraCommander]

Brads play this year has to be costing him money- when you couple the reoccurring injuries to his legs with the REALLY bad nights when he is healthy- I don't see how a GM could offer him the max.

Too many warning signs that say his upside may not be as high as once thought (even at 22) - doesn't mean he won't get the max from someone based on the hope that he can stay healthy.

But remember this, Beal was drafted based on "upside" as he didn't have a remarkable college career. People saw a strong, athletic kid, with decent size (plus the possibility that he could grow more), a perfect jump shot and a GREAT KID (I can't over state how good of a person Brad appears to be) and they thought you have to draft BRAD if you need a 2 guard. Brad is smart, humble and well spoken.

If he was half as good as John right now, he would be household name with a huge shoe deal and a AllStar appearance. Right now it is like we are waiting for him to heal...again. Return to form...again. Waiting for the best shooter on the team to take over for JW as the scoring leader for the Wiz...again. That is the only formula that works.

If John (a marginal shooter) is your best scorer you have a problem - especially when you have a shooter of Brads ability on the team

[DCZards]

Brads play this year has to be costing him money- when you couple the reoccurring injuries to his legs with the REALLY bad nights when he is healthy- I don't see how a GM could offer him the max.

Too many warning signs that say his upside may not be as high as once thought (even at 22) - doesn't mean he won't get the max from someone based on the hope that he can stay healthy.

But remember this, Beal was drafted based on "upside" as he didn't have a remarkable college career. People saw a strong, athletic kid, with decent size (plus the possibility that he could grow more), a perfect jump shot and a GREAT KID (I can't over state how good of a person Brad appears to be) and they thought you have to draft BRAD if you need a 2 guard. Brad is smart, humble and well spoken.

If he was half as good as John right now, he would be household name with a huge shoe deal and a AllStar appearance. Right now it is like we are waiting for him to heal...again. Return to form...again. Waiting for the best shooter on the team to take over for JW as the scoring leader for the Wiz...again. That is the only formula that works.

If John (a marginal shooter) is your best scorer you have a problem - especially when you have a shooter of Brads ability on the team

Good post, Cobra. BB has had a very disappointing season. This was the year Bradley was supposed to take the next step--and become that perfect complement to Wall--but between the injuries and the inconsistent play he has hurt the team's overall success and, as you say, cost himself a lot of money. It's also hurt the Zards in their recruitment of KD.

[nate33]

Brads play this year has to be costing him money- when you couple the reoccurring injuries to his legs with the REALLY bad nights when he is healthy- I don't see how a GM could offer him the max.

Too many warning signs that say his upside may not be as high as once thought (even at 22) - doesn't mean he won't get the max from someone based on the hope that he can stay healthy.

But remember this, Beal was drafted based on "upside" as he didn't have a remarkable college career. People saw a strong, athletic kid, with decent size (plus the possibility that he could grow more), a perfect jump shot and a GREAT KID (I can't over state how good of a person Brad appears to be) and they thought you have to draft BRAD if you need a 2 guard. Brad is smart, humble and well spoken.

If he was half as good as John right now, he would be household name with a huge shoe deal and a AllStar appearance. Right now it is like we are waiting for him to heal...again. Return to form...again. Waiting for the best shooter on the team to take over for JW as the scoring leader for the Wiz...again. That is the only formula that works.

If John (a marginal shooter) is your best scorer you have a problem - especially when you have a shooter of Brads ability on the team

Yeah. I'm starting to have some real hopes that his free agency market will be diminished. If nothing else, my guess is that nobody is going to pay him max money for a full 4-year contract. If they offer him a max, it'll probably only be a 2+1 contract with that 3rd year a team option. That would be much more palatable to match. It's an overpay, but the free agency market this year and next year will be full of overly expensive players, rendering any "plan B" to be nearly as expensive as Beal. The market will settle down in the Summer of 2018, so if Beal has a team option then, and he has proven to be underwhelming, we could dump his salary and explore free agency at that time.