Have You Panickers Actually Thought This Through?

[milellie111]

I can't believe that I'm choosing this comedic tour de force of a thread to fulfill my serious post quota, but I'd just like to point out that characterizing the expressed desire to see turnover in the front office of the Wizards as panic demonstrates a lack of a sense of history, both of the team and of the board.

Never mind that the arguments against the effective operation of the team can be quantified, read out in the gap between the modest statistical benchmarks each new acquisition can ostensibly claim and the more barren reality revealed by any semi-serious attempt to apply more rigor and method to those numbers.

There's no panic here because panic would imply a suddenness and urgency that is so many years behind us now if it ever existed. Grunfeld has run this team poorly for a long, long time, and so, having come to realize this, we more or less constantly hope that he'll be fired and things will get better. I don't necessarily root for the team to actively fail to fascillitate that anymore because it's already happened, happened a second and third time after that, and nothing was so accomplished. So I'd happily see the team win the NBA Finals and then fire Grunfeld the next day; there's simply too much assembled evidence weighed against his competency at this point to counterbalance anything but a sustained run of excellent decisions spanning a number of years. I'd prefer not to give him that chance because I can put only so much faith in the notion of regression to the mean, but frankly he was equally obliged to make up for having been a moron for some time half a decade ago and he's spent the intervening time being **** at running a basketball team.

So I'm not panicking here, leisurely preparing to mosey back down that hill and start again with my boulder perhaps, but I am a learning animal so when I've nearly pushed it to the top and its contract is renewed for another couple of years I hardly panic.

I laugh.

Panic is a sudden sensation of frustration and anxiety that dominates to the point of preventing reason and logical thinking. These knee jerk reaction posts after a Wizards loss is exactly what many are doing. Logical thinking is clouded by dislike for the GM. Logic would help you see the big picture and progression of this team. This team made the playoffs 2 years in a row, and if it wasn't for an untimely injury to our star pg, most likely would have been in the ECF last season. Logic helps you accept that even though we are only a couple games out of the playoff picture, the season is far from over. We have new pieces this season, were the most injured team in the league, had our starting SG injured for weeks, added some players through trade and free agency and logically need time to gel. Panic and illogical thinking has folks calling for the GM and coach to get canned after a loss and bringing up bad trades/draft picks from years ago that are not even on the team anymore. Guys here want the GM gone no matter the costs, even if it means blowing up the team, losing out on a chance for Kevin Durant, rebuilding for 5 years, losing John Wall, and a new GM coming in who may likely will be no better or worse. Disregard eveything positive that has been happening with this team in the past 3 seasons, we're currently 1 1\2 games out of playoff position so lets fire Grunfeld. Signs of panic!!

[Ed Wood]

I don't think that's entirely unfair. I won't deny that my reaction to any move the team makes at this point is tinged by my awareness of its track record and I heuristically default to assuming the bad if not the worst.

That said I think it's also misrepresenting the reality of the team's circumstances by coating everything with a veneer of positivity. The team has made the playoffs for two years running, but as has been pointed out that's a mark of mediocrity as much as anything in the eastern conference, given the overall quality of competition and that more teams qualify than don't for that distinction. The team has been integrating a few new players, but certainly not more than any other team would be, and not players who are particularly central to the team's success or really that good (which is part of the problem, the team didn't really add anyone who's an excellent or even really above average player to the roster). The team has also been dealing with injuries, but not, unfortunately, to very excellent players, because it's hard to deprive the roster of something that it hardly contains.

I don't think bringing in a new GM would at all necessarily entail losing out on an opportunity to sign Kevin Durant (which at risk of eating crow I'm going to say we really don't have anyway) or John Wall. If part of the reason for making front office changes is to improve the quality of decisions made about the team's roster construction (which would not be hard) then presumably succeeding in doing so would make the team more likely to make strong moves in future, not less, and really I think the bottom line there is that the risk you're assuming making such a move is really quite small. The team has been unremarkable and hasn't, I think, been run especially well relative to its competitors for some time. Even if either circumstances or poor talent evaluation conspire to bring in a less than excellent front office to replace this one the team isn't likely to be downgrading very significantly.

So I don't think I'm disregarding everything positive that's happened to the team, but I think you're both overestimating how positive those things are and have unrealistic expectations about what they bode for the future, given what we can learn from the past.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Amusing to see a call for logic in a post containing so little of it.

Millie's grotesque characterization of what people have actually been saying about Grunfeld and the Wizards kinda underscores how weak his/her "arguments" are.

[milellie111]

I don't think that's entirely unfair. I won't deny that my reaction to any move the team makes at this point is tinged by my awareness of its track record and I heuristically default to assuming the bad if not the worst.

That said I think it's also misrepresenting the reality of the team's circumstances by coating everything with a veneer of positivity. The team has made the playoffs for two years running, but as has been pointed out that's a mark of mediocrity as much as anything in the eastern conference, given the overall quality of competition and that more teams qualify than don't for that distinction. The team has been integrating a few new players, but certainly not more than any other team would be, and not players who are particularly central to the team's success or really that good (which is part of the problem, the team didn't really add anyone who's an excellent or even really above average player to the roster). The team has also been dealing with injuries, but not, unfortunately, to very excellent players, because it's hard to deprive the roster of something that it hardly contains.

I don't think bringing in a new GM would at all necessarily entail losing out on an opportunity to sign Kevin Durant (which at risk of eating crow I'm going to say we really don't have anyway) or John Wall. If part of the reason for making front office changes is to improve the quality of decisions made about the team's roster construction (which would not be hard) then presumably succeeding in doing so would make the team more likely to make strong moves in future, not less, and really I think the bottom line there is that the risk you're assuming making such a move is really quite small. The team has been unremarkable and hasn't, I think, been run especially well relative to its competitors for some time. Even if either circumstances or poor talent evaluation conspire to bring in a less than excellent front office to replace this one the team isn't likely to be downgrading very significantly.

So I don't think I'm disregarding everything positive that's happened to the team, but I think you're both overestimating how positive those things are and have unrealistic expectations about what they bode for the future, given what we can learn from the past.

Change. It's the only forseeable solution for the discontented with limited scope. No one here yet has been able to provide tangible evidence or statistical proof that firing Grunfeld will imrove the Wizards. It's because they can't. They focus on what he hasn't done, yet ignore what he's accomplished. They relive the past, yet block out the recent and present. You find one example of how canning a GM and coach prematurely improved a team, you will find two examples of how it hasn't. Measurably, the Wizards are no worse than other competitive teams in the East and far better than the worst. The team Grunfeld currently has constructed and the vision going forward is either on par or superior to the GM's of other teams who were replaced in the last couple of seasons.

These same fans crying for change are like the same voters expecting the next president to be the savior, the guys bored with their wives searching for someone new and exciting, the unsatisfied homeowners moving every few years searching for the "perfect" neighborhood. Only after a few years, they realize that not only what they had really wasn't that bad, it actually was better than current. Next course of action? Rinse and repeat the cycle of change

[montestewart]

Hitler introduced the VW, right? How come no one talks about that? Panic!

[AFM]

Volks Wagen! People's Car. Designed by Ferdinand Porsche. You'll never see me in a 911, only because of the Nazi ties.

[montestewart]

Volks Wagen! People's Car. Designed by Ferdinand Porsche. You'll never see me in a 911, only because of the Nazi ties.

You might be surprised by some of the people with Nazi ties. People like Byron Scott, to name one example.

[ozthegap]

Volks Wagen! People's Car. Designed by Ferdinand Porsche. You'll never see me in a 911, only because of the Nazi ties.

You might be surprised by some of the people with Nazi ties. People like Byron Scott, to name one example.

Wtf wtf wtf!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't believe that I'm choosing this comedic tour de force of a thread to fulfill my serious post quota, but I'd just like to point out that characterizing the expressed desire to see turnover in the front office of the Wizards as panic demonstrates a lack of a sense of history, both of the team and of the board.

Never mind that the arguments against the effective operation of the team can be quantified, read out in the gap between the modest statistical benchmarks each new acquisition can ostensibly claim and the more barren reality revealed by any semi-serious attempt to apply more rigor and method to those numbers.

There's no panic here because panic would imply a suddenness and urgency that is so many years behind us now if it ever existed. Grunfeld has run this team poorly for a long, long time, and so, having come to realize this, we more or less constantly hope that he'll be fired and things will get better. I don't necessarily root for the team to actively fail to fascillitate that anymore because it's already happened, happened a second and third time after that, and nothing was so accomplished. So I'd happily see the team win the NBA Finals and then fire Grunfeld the next day; there's simply too much assembled evidence weighed against his competency at this point to counterbalance anything but a sustained run of excellent decisions spanning a number of years. I'd prefer not to give him that chance because I can put only so much faith in the notion of regression to the mean, but frankly he was equally obliged to make up for having been a moron for some time half a decade ago and he's spent the intervening time being **** at running a basketball team.

So I'm not panicking here, leisurely preparing to mosey back down that hill and start again with my boulder perhaps, but I am a learning animal so when I've nearly pushed it to the top and its contract is renewed for another couple of years I hardly panic.

I laugh.

Panic is a sudden sensation of frustration and anxiety that dominates to the point of preventing reason and logical thinking. These knee jerk reaction posts after a Wizards loss is exactly what many are doing. Logical thinking is clouded by dislike for the GM. Logic would help you see the big picture and progression of this team. This team made the playoffs 2 years in a row, and if it wasn't for an untimely injury to our star pg, most likely would have been in the ECF last season. Logic helps you accept that even though we are only a couple games out of the playoff picture, the season is far from over. We have new pieces this season, were the most injured team in the league, had our starting SG injured for weeks, added some players through trade and free agency and logically need time to gel. Panic and illogical thinking has folks calling for the GM and coach to get canned after a loss and bringing up bad trades/draft picks from years ago that are not even on the team anymore. Guys here want the GM gone no matter the costs, even if it means blowing up the team, losing out on a chance for Kevin Durant, rebuilding for 5 years, losing John Wall, and a new GM coming in who may likely will be no better or worse. Disregard eveything positive that has been happening with this team in the past 3 seasons, we're currently 1 1\2 games out of playoff position so lets fire Grunfeld. Signs of panic!!

IF the Wizards make the playoffs, say, after winning 44 or 45 games; then EG will have made good short-term moves.

If the Rockets waive Ty Lawson, and he, after waivers, ends up signing with Washington for the minimum; the Wizards can add Lawson and waive Eddie. That would give the Wizards quite a roster. I'll give EG props despite each thing I have written.

I don't like his methods, but this could pan out.

[dobrojim]

They could add Kevin Martin while they're at it.

[lastemp3ror]

Not sure about how signing certain people will effect our cap etc. But I wish instead of signing Hickson we would round out our roster with Martin and/or Lawson. With the Morris trade, the Hickson signing was a bit redundant.

[dobrojim]

Both the players I've named, Lawson and Martin, have just been waived so assuming I understand
correctly, we could sign either of them for vet min as their former teams are still paying them.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I took a look at remaining schedules for the East's "five teams for three spots" group -- Charlotte, Indiana, Detroit, Chicago and Washington.

Charlotte has the easiest schedule the rest of the way -- their upcoming opponents have been 1.54 points per game worse than average. The Wizards are next easiest at -0.82, but the Pacers (-0.69) and Bulls (-0.56) are pretty comparable in SOS. Detroit has the toughest remaining schedule -- +0.11 points per game.

[gambitx777]

So we need to win at mini tonight, because our next 3 games after that are the cavs/pacers/and trail blazers. We could loose all 3 of those....... we need a win tonight. We can take the pacers, and if we can steal a game from the cavs or the blazers we should be ok. best case we go 4 in a row, but the cavs pacers is a back to back so im not to optimistic about that one.

[dobrojim]

One thing that is difficult to impossible to predict is how the last games
of the season play out. Sometimes guys/teams go really hard as 'practice' for next year
and over-perform compared to what you expect. Or sometimes a team under
pressure to make the playoffs under-performs as a result.

[CobraCommander]

Volks Wagen! People's Car. Designed by Ferdinand Porsche. You'll never see me in a 911, only because of the Nazi ties.

You might be surprised by some of the people with Nazi ties. People like Byron Scott, to name one example.

Wtf wtf wtf!

LOL. Yeah wtf was he thinking...this has to be Photoshopped

[ozthegap]

Not sure about how signing certain people will effect our cap etc. But I wish instead of signing Hickson we would round out our roster with Martin and/or Lawson. With the Morris trade, the Hickson signing was a bit redundant.

Martin and Gary Neal also redundant. They are almost the exact same player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I took a look at remaining schedules for the East's "five teams for three spots" group -- Charlotte, Indiana, Detroit, Chicago and Washington.

Charlotte has the easiest schedule the rest of the way -- their upcoming opponents have been 1.54 points per game worse than average. The Wizards are next easiest at -0.82, but the Pacers (-0.69) and Bulls (-0.56) are pretty comparable in SOS. Detroit has the toughest remaining schedule -- +0.11 points per game.

Chicago tried to trade Pau. They did trade Hinrich. Their morale under first-year coach Donovan (NCAA season is far shorter) is low. They are nicked up. Donovan seems to prefer playing young players. They're 3-7 over the last ten.

Detroit has funky chemistry. Drummond is very inconsistent or lacks intensity. The Pistons have a leadership void.

[payitforward]

Everything is not always as bad as it seems. Considering we can beat the top team in the East with this deep roster. Sometimes all that's needed is time to gel.

It's not always darkest just before the dawn. It's actually darkest in the middle of the night. Don't be fooled by that fleshlight. (Had to work gel in there somehow.)

43-39, 6th seed is our championship! Go Wiz!

No... just making the playoffs is the measure of our success. That's our championship right there! After all, that's what Ernie Grunfeld says over and over: "our strategy is to compete for the playoffs every year." He's said it 100 times.

Still Millie is correct -- if a team's best player sits out a game against us, and if that team has pretty much sewn up the top spot in the EC playoffs, why then - you bet - we have a chance to beat that team. In that game.

And that proves that really *we* - not they - are the outstanding team with "this deep roster."

[payitforward]

I can't believe that I'm choosing this comedic tour de force of a thread to fulfill my serious post quota, but I'd just like to point out that characterizing the expressed desire to see turnover in the front office of the Wizards as panic demonstrates a lack of a sense of history, both of the team and of the board.

Never mind that the arguments against the effective operation of the team can be quantified, read out in the gap between the modest statistical benchmarks each new acquisition can ostensibly claim and the more barren reality revealed by any semi-serious attempt to apply more rigor and method to those numbers.

There's no panic here because panic would imply a suddenness and urgency that is so many years behind us now if it ever existed. Grunfeld has run this team poorly for a long, long time, and so, having come to realize this, we more or less constantly hope that he'll be fired and things will get better. I don't necessarily root for the team to actively fail to fascillitate that anymore because it's already happened, happened a second and third time after that, and nothing was so accomplished. So I'd happily see the team win the NBA Finals and then fire Grunfeld the next day; there's simply too much assembled evidence weighed against his competency to counterbalance at this point with anything but a sustained run of excellent decisions spanning a number of years. I'd prefer not to give him that chance because I can put only so much faith in the notion of regression to the mean, but frankly he was equally obliged to make up for being a moron for some time half a decade ago and he's spent the intervening time being **** at running a basketball team.

So I'm not panicking here, leisurely preparing to mosey back down that hill and start again with my boulder perhaps, but I am a learning animal so when I've nearly pushed it to the top and its contract is renewed for another couple of years I hardly panic.

I laugh.

This is HOF or there ain't no HOF.

Seconded.

I plus-oned this after the first sentence. It only got better from there.

Ditto. All the way down the line.

Do us all a favor and resign, Ernie. And don't let the door hit you in the butt on the way out.