Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[payitforward]

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

Yeah, except that isn't an "argument" at all. It's just a claim.

In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat.

Given that it's "hilarious that we would even need to debate" who is better between them, there should be no difficulty for you in doing this.

Here, I'll get you started:

it's good to get more assists; Cousins gets more assists than Gortat.

[NatP4]

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

Yeah, except that isn't an "argument" at all. It's just a claim.

In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat.

Given that it's "hilarious that we would even need to debate" who is better between them, there should be no difficulty for you in doing this.

Here, I'll get you started:

it's good to get more assists; Cousins gets more assists than Gortat.

Alright.

Rebounds/Assists/Blocks/Steals/Points

Cousins:
11/4.6/1.4/1.3/27

Gortat:
10.4/1.5/0.5/0.7/10.8

Seems easy enough, let's continue:

PER/RPM/WINS

Cousins:
25.8/4.2(good for 4th among centers)/11.26(good for 4th among centers

Gortat:
15.4/1.18(good for 33rd among centers/5.01(good for 19th among centers

Also:

Cousins shot .361 on 3s on 5 attempts per game. Gortat obviously doesn't shoot 3s.

for all the talk about efficiency: Gortat has a TS% slightly higher than Cousins at .593 to .564

Call me crazy, but I'm gonna roll the dice on pairing a 27-11-5 center that can shoot 36% on high attempts from 3, with my superstar pass first point guard and my two elite wing players that shoot the 3 at 40% consistently.

Just imagine all of the times where teams switch on a wall pick and roll(because he's not good at ISOing) when we don't have a quality post scoring threat to make them pay. You can't leave a guard on DMC.

That's my argument

[NatP4]

Side note: Gortat plays with John Wall Bradley Beal and Otto Porter already.

[Dat2U]

Agreed. The debate should be Gortat,Mahinmi,Smith,Ochefu/Rim Protector...

It's a debate because Cousins has interest in coming to D.C., why is that so hard to understand?

1) Cousins has never actually said in public that he wants to come to DC.
2) I think a lower usage rim protector at a lower contract amount is the better move.

I understand that your arguments

1) You think Cousins is a high level offensive player
2) You think Cousins could morph into a rim protecting pick&roll big.

Got it - we just have to agree to disagree

Here's the exact quote from Wall that got everyone excited a few months back:

http://www.csnmidatlantic.com/washington-wizards/john-wall-demarcus-cousins-he-said-he-would-come-dc

Here's what Wall told The Undefeated's Marc Spears:

Did you ever talk to your former Kentucky teammate and fellow NBA All-Star DeMarcus Cousins about playing for the Wizards before the Sacramento Kings dealt him to the New Orleans Pelicans?

"I talked to him. He said he would come to D.C., but he didn’t know what was going to happen. I didn’t know he was going to be traded like that. We thought it was going to be later on or he was just going to stay [in Sacramento]. It shocked me just like it shocked him."

[pcbothwel]

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

Yeah, except that isn't an "argument" at all. It's just a claim.

In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat.

Given that it's "hilarious that we would even need to debate" who is better between them, there should be no difficulty for you in doing this.

Here, I'll get you started:

it's good to get more assists; Cousins gets more assists than Gortat.

Shooting: Cousins shot 36% from 3 last year and gets better each year with more attempts. Changes the dynamic of the offense.
Passing/Turnovers: Marcin has a higher TOV%: 13.5 vs 13.8 .... While Cousins has A MUCH higher AST%: 25.8 vs 6.8. Again, changes the dynamic of the offense.
Free Throws: Cousins gets more than 4 TIMES as many FTA per possession. Scoring aside, this affects the other team as their bigs get in foul trouble.
Defense: Cousins has Gortat in Steals: 2% vs 0.8%, and Blocks: 3.4% vs 2%
All-around analytics: WS/48, RPM, and VORP arent even comparable... Cousins crushes him.

Some will point to TS or ORtg, but I think those can be flawed for the impact of a low usage big that gets junk points. There is a reason why Cousins is considered an elite player in ORPM (16th overall). He ranked higher than Wall, Beal, Otto, Hayward, Blake, CJ, Klay, Love, PG13, etc.

When it comes to bigs that can score on you in a many ways, play solid defense, and pass the ball with the effectiveness he does... its literally Jokic, Cousins, Gasol... And no one else in the last 25 years

[dckingsfan]

It's a debate because Cousins has interest in coming to D.C., why is that so hard to understand?

1) Cousins has never actually said in public that he wants to come to DC.
2) I think a lower usage rim protector at a lower contract amount is the better move.

I understand that your arguments

1) You think Cousins is a high level offensive player
2) You think Cousins could morph into a rim protecting pick&roll big.

Got it - we just have to agree to disagree

Lebron James is a better move, you are really struggling with the whole Demarcus Cousins wants to come here (reported by various sources around the league and John Wall himself)

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

And my argument is simply - we would be better off with a rim protector than with Cousins. A rim protector would be plan "A" in my book - I think a really good lock down defender in the FC is what takes us to the next level. And having watch Cousins for a long time - I don't think he can morph into that player.

And of course John Wall is going to say that Cousins would be interested. "I was recruit Cousins but he said, really?" wouldn't be a way Wall would spin it. Until you hear from the athlete himself, well - it is just so much talk. Remember when there was that talk that Durant wanted to be here

Let's leave this - you want Cousins as plan A. I don't. All good.

[deneem4]

1) Cousins has never actually said in public that he wants to come to DC.
2) I think a lower usage rim protector at a lower contract amount is the better move.

I understand that your arguments

1) You think Cousins is a high level offensive player
2) You think Cousins could morph into a rim protecting pick&roll big.

Got it - we just have to agree to disagree

Lebron James is a better move, you are really struggling with the whole Demarcus Cousins wants to come here (reported by various sources around the league and John Wall himself)

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

And my argument is simply - we would be better off with a rim protector than with Cousins. A rim protector would be plan "A" in my book - I think a really good lock down defender in the FC is what takes us to the next level. And having watch Cousins for a long time - I don't think he can morph into that player.

And of course John Wall is going to say that Cousins would be interested. "I was recruit Cousins but he said, really?" wouldn't be a way Wall would spin it. Until you hear from the athlete himself, well - it is just so much talk. Remember when there was that talk that Durant wanted to be here

Let's leave this - you want Cousins as plan A. I don't. All good.

so basically you want a healthy Ian mahinmi??

[NatP4]

1) Cousins has never actually said in public that he wants to come to DC.
2) I think a lower usage rim protector at a lower contract amount is the better move.

I understand that your arguments

1) You think Cousins is a high level offensive player
2) You think Cousins could morph into a rim protecting pick&roll big.

Got it - we just have to agree to disagree

Lebron James is a better move, you are really struggling with the whole Demarcus Cousins wants to come here (reported by various sources around the league and John Wall himself)

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

And my argument is simply - we would be better off with a rim protector than with Cousins. A rim protector would be plan "A" in my book - I think a really good lock down defender in the FC is what takes us to the next level. And having watch Cousins for a long time - I don't think he can morph into that player.

And of course John Wall is going to say that Cousins would be interested. "I was recruit Cousins but he said, really?" wouldn't be a way Wall would spin it. Until you hear from the athlete himself, well - it is just so much talk. Remember when there was that talk that Durant wanted to be here

Let's leave this - you want Cousins as plan A. I don't. All good.

And like I said, I'm not arguing that. I would rather have Deandre Jordan, a rim protector is a better plan A. I'm simply saying that Cousins potential interest makes it I don't know, the most realistic option I guess? But yeah people said the same about Durant.

My ideal plan A would be to add DJ so Otto can play the 4 more. Even though free throws and his age give me pause. Maybe Nerlens Noel is obtainable via trade. He can be the next DJ in my opinion.

[deneem4]

Lebron James is a better move, you are really struggling with the whole Demarcus Cousins wants to come here (reported by various sources around the league and John Wall himself)

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

And my argument is simply - we would be better off with a rim protector than with Cousins. A rim protector would be plan "A" in my book - I think a really good lock down defender in the FC is what takes us to the next level. And having watch Cousins for a long time - I don't think he can morph into that player.

And of course John Wall is going to say that Cousins would be interested. "I was recruit Cousins but he said, really?" wouldn't be a way Wall would spin it. Until you hear from the athlete himself, well - it is just so much talk. Remember when there was that talk that Durant wanted to be here

Let's leave this - you want Cousins as plan A. I don't. All good.

And like I said, I'm not arguing that. I would rather have Deandre Jordan, a rim protector is a better plan A. I'm simply saying that Cousins potential interest makes it I don't know, the most realistic option I guess? But yeah people said the same about Durant.

My ideal plan A would be to add DJ so Otto can play the 4 more. Even though free throws and his age give me pause. Maybe Nerlens Noel is obtainable via trade. He can be the next DJ in my opinion.

That wouldn't work
Same reason it didn't work with cp3
Having a big man that can't shoot or created his own offense for himself or others is not s winning strategy...
Let's reminisce for a second
The last crop of NBA champions pf and center

Golden state - green at pf
Cavs - lebron at pf/love
Golden state
Spurs - Duncan
Miami - lebron and bosh
Dallas - dirk
Lakers - pau (Bynum/Odom)
Celtics - Garnett
Miami - shaq

Every winning team need a big capable of scoring

Gortat isn't that nor mahinmi....Morris is close as have gotten but cousins would be another athmosphere

When the guy in the paint commands the defense attention respectively...
It make your team better

Noel and dj would be good defensively but we need more scoring and versatility...

Cousins is exactly that...

[gambitx777]

All the people trying to get DC here are over looking a few very key points here.
Moving gortat for DC is a pretty lateral move and unless Jason smith is the filler contract anyone else we loose on the bench or as a starter in that deal makes any value DC has over Gortat null at best.
How are we going to resign him? we won't have the cap room, no even close and if we spend assets getting DC with out sending mahinmi out we won't have any assets left to move mahinmi which would still not help us have enough to resign DC at what hes going to be worth on the open market. Trade Otto and still all value he has coming in get nulled because you loose Otto, have no assets to move gortat or mahinmi, you have a log jam and you have no room to replace porter, save a gortat trade which won't get you much because a pick would probably be use to get DC.
Do a mahinmi for DC trade, that would probably coast you Kelley and a first unprotected. Then you got to hope gortat agrees to come off the bench, hope you can find a replacement for kelley, with little to no money left, and you still don't have any money to resign DC next season. So hes a rental, worth it at the coast? a rental of DC for a year and the removal of mahinmis contract for Kelley and a pick (2019). Probably pretty fair value TBH. I doubt the pels take that deal to be honest and it still does not make us that much better in the long run or right now.
You are better off playing at some other situations. the slex len thing, Offer him a 4-40 or a 4-36 and work a sign and trade where the suns get mahinmi and a pick (push 2018 second but settle at 2019 first if needed), and cash, you get a young 25 year old center at a pretty decent market rate team friendly deal for mahinmi, Len on a contract like that would be a tradable asset moving forward. and almost gets us out of the tax. You can then talk to gortat and see if he wants to stay or go, and trade him out for a center on a better deal or pay someone to take smith for us, and your under the tax, and still better than you were before.

[Ruzious]

Cousins is just not a good fit. We don't need a super-high usage player up front. We need defensive-minded players who also add to the offensive efficiency of the team in various ways - be it by setting picks, finishing pnr's, hitting 3's, getting put-backs and alley-oops's's, etc.

[NatP4]

And my argument is simply - we would be better off with a rim protector than with Cousins. A rim protector would be plan "A" in my book - I think a really good lock down defender in the FC is what takes us to the next level. And having watch Cousins for a long time - I don't think he can morph into that player.

And of course John Wall is going to say that Cousins would be interested. "I was recruit Cousins but he said, really?" wouldn't be a way Wall would spin it. Until you hear from the athlete himself, well - it is just so much talk. Remember when there was that talk that Durant wanted to be here

Let's leave this - you want Cousins as plan A. I don't. All good.

And like I said, I'm not arguing that. I would rather have Deandre Jordan, a rim protector is a better plan A. I'm simply saying that Cousins potential interest makes it I don't know, the most realistic option I guess? But yeah people said the same about Durant.

My ideal plan A would be to add DJ so Otto can play the 4 more. Even though free throws and his age give me pause. Maybe Nerlens Noel is obtainable via trade. He can be the next DJ in my opinion.

That wouldn't work
Same reason it didn't work with cp3
Having a big man that can't shoot or created his own offense for himself or others is not s winning strategy...
Let's reminisce for a second
The last crop of NBA champions pf and center

Golden state - green at pf
Cavs - lebron at pf/love
Golden state
Spurs - Duncan
Miami - lebron and bosh
Dallas - dirk
Lakers - pau (Bynum/Odom)
Celtics - Garnett
Miami - shaq

Every winning team need a big capable of scoring

Gortat isn't that nor mahinmi....Morris is close as have gotten but cousins would be another athmosphere

When the guy in the paint commands the defense attention respectively...
It make your team better

Noel and dj would be good defensively but we need more scoring and versatility...

Cousins is exactly that...

DJ can score. Leads the league in fg% every year, opens up the floor because of the lob threat. Scores just as good as Gortat does. Elite defensive team with a pick and roll lob threat that opens the floor for Beal Otto and Oubre? I like my chances

[payitforward]

My argument is simply: Demarcus Cousins is better than Gortat. And yes, it is hilarious that we would even need to debate that at all.

Yeah, except that isn't an "argument" at all. It's just a claim.

In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.

Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat.

Given that it's "hilarious that we would even need to debate" who is better between them, there should be no difficulty for you in doing this.

Here, I'll get you started:

it's good to get more assists; Cousins gets more assists than Gortat.

Alright.

Rebounds/Assists/Blocks/Steals/Points

Cousins:
11/4.6/1.4/1.3/27

Gortat:
10.4/1.5/0.5/0.7/10.8

Seems easy enough, let's continue:

PER/RPM/WINS

Cousins:
25.8/4.2(good for 4th among centers)/11.26(good for 4th among centers

Gortat:
15.4/1.18(good for 33rd among centers/5.01(good for 19th among centers

Also:

Cousins shot .361 on 3s on 5 attempts per game. Gortat obviously doesn't shoot 3s.

for all the talk about efficiency: Gortat has a TS% slightly higher than Cousins at .593 to .564

Call me crazy, but I'm gonna roll the dice on pairing a 27-11-5 center that can shoot 36% on high attempts from 3, with my superstar pass first point guard and my two elite wing players that shoot the 3 at 40% consistently.

Just imagine all of the times where teams switch on a wall pick and roll(because he's not good at ISOing) when we don't have a quality post scoring threat to make them pay. You can't leave a guard on DMC.

That's my argument

Well done; except there are a few problems:

Rebounds: I guess you used a per-game figure. Guys don't play the exact same number of minutes per game. Per 40 minutes, Gortat got more rebounds than Cousins.

Rebounds (again): Offensive rebounds are more positive in their effect on the team (this has been shown via regressions using stat software: not going to argue the point): Gortat got 50% more offensive boards per 40 minutes than Cousins.

Now lets talk about scoring, & what you ask me to "just imagine." Except i'm going to give you something you don't have to imagine:

every 36 minutes last year, Gortat took 9.5 shots. He missed 4 of those shots. Every 36 minutes last year, Cousins took 11.4 more shots than Gortat. He missed 7.1 of those extra 11.4 shots. Just using arithmetic, no imagining, I learn that Cousins shot .377 on those extra shots.

Shots don't come free. A shot Cousins took was a shot someone else didn't take. & that's where the problem lies. Lets assume for a moment that "someone else" would have posted an average FG% (i.e. for Cousins' teams leaving his poor shooting out) on those attempts. Without any doubt, the team would have done better having other people take those shots. The team would have scored more points as a team, In other words. So, yeah, Cousins scored a lot more points than Gortat, but b/c his TS% is lower than Marcin's (& 3% is *not* a small difference, btw), it follows that his TS% looking at those extra shots is pretty miserable.

Now... that picture makes the problem look more extreme than it is -- because it leaves out the fact that Cousins got to the line so much. Factor that in, and a good bit of the difference is bridged.

But, something else is being left out too -- & in this case factoring it in makes the problem more extreme again. In that same 36 minutes, aside from going .377 on his extra shots, Cousins also gave the ball away an extra 2.2 times.

Remember how i said it's good to get more assists; Cousins gets more assists than Gortat?

In the same way one could also say:

It's bad to take a lot of low % shots. Cousins took a lot of low % shots.
&
it's bad to turn the ball over a lot. Cousins turned the ball over a lot.

Last year Cousins -- as a Center! -- was 6th in turnovers per 40 minutes in the entire league. Of the 5 guys worse than him, 4 of them were PGs. You expect PGs to turn the ball over more than other players (only 4 of the worst 20 in turnovers weren't PGs).

But here's the simplest way* to understand why Cousins is fools gold not the real stuff:

In his time with Sacramento last year, Cousins accounted for roughly 27% of the team's attempts on offense (FGAs plus .5FTAs). The entire rest of the team accounted for the other 73% (again, that's all the rest of the team's FGAs plus .5 of all the rest of their FTAs).

In that time, Cousins produced roughly 27% of the team's results on offense (points). The rest of the team accounted for the other 73%.

What does that tell you? Anything? What it should tell you, obviously, is that on offense at least, despite his volume shooting, DeMarcus Cousins did not make the Sacramento Kings better. Did he make them better on defense? You tell me.

In 17 games w/ NO, Cousins accounted for .225 of attempts (as above) & .234 of results. Again doesn't really speak to a player with a big positive impact on offensive results.



* This is all done quickly using %s of season numbers for the teams -- accurate w/in +-10% but no more is claimed.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

All the people arguing against Cousins have been wrong about him since day one. The old argument was he's a head case. You guys said he would be a bust.

Now that he's been an all star more than once and he's been an Olympian you guys are arguing he's wrong for the Wizards and that Gortat is better.

Wall and Cousins play off each other and they play well together. Cousins would handle the ball less, turn it over less, rebound just as efficiently, and very likely have a higher assist percentage playing along side considerably better teammates. His eFG% would soar.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[payitforward]

...In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.
Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.
Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat....

Shooting: Cousins shot 36% from 3 last year and gets better each year with more attempts. Changes the dynamic of the offense.
Passing/Turnovers: Marcin has a higher TOV%: 13.5 vs 13.8 .... While Cousins has A MUCH higher AST%: 25.8 vs 6.8. Again, changes the dynamic of the offense.
Free Throws: Cousins gets more than 4 TIMES as many FTA per possession. Scoring aside, this affects the other team as their bigs get in foul trouble.
Defense: Cousins has Gortat in Steals: 2% vs 0.8%, and Blocks: 3.4% vs 2%
All-around analytics: WS/48, RPM, and VORP arent even comparable... Cousins crushes him.

Some will point to TS or ORtg, but I think those can be flawed for the impact of a low usage big that gets junk points. There is a reason why Cousins is considered an elite player in ORPM (16th overall). He ranked higher than Wall, Beal, Otto, Hayward, Blake, CJ, Klay, Love, PG13, etc.

When it comes to bigs that can score on you in a many ways, play solid defense, and pass the ball with the effectiveness he does... its literally Jokic, Cousins, Gasol... And no one else in the last 25 years

I know Cousins shot .36 on 3s last year. To which you add "changes the dynamic of the offense." It's such a big change that both teams he played for had as good a record without him as with him.

& on both (awful) teams, the rest of the roster produced points with the same efficiency as Cousins did. So... show me the benefit please?

It's also true that he gets to the line a lot, which you also claim "changes the dynamic" -- by getting the opposing team's bigs in foul trouble. As a narrative, that makes sense. Can you show me that as a matter of fact it actually makes a difference? I mention again that his teams had the same record with him as without him.

As to the % itself, here's the thing: Gortat shot 58% on 2-point attempts. What that means is that if Gortat takes 5 of those, & Cousins takes 5 3-pointers, Gortat is the one who scores more points. Hence, see above, in all those many many extra shots Cousins takes, he produces points extremely inefficiently leading his teams to... lose.

"More points" -- I believe that's what the refs look at the scoreboard to see which team has before they declare the winner. Now *that* I'd say really does "change the dynamic of the offense' -- by making you win the game.

But, it's more points scored by the team -- doesn't matter which individual has which number.

& what gets more points for the team? Efficiency. E.g. Cousins' trips to the line help. Unfortunately, DeMarcus Cousins, as a Center!, shoots 48% on 2-point attempts -- among the worst 2-pt. %s of all Centers or PFs in the league. & he takes a whole lot of them.

That too changes things. The more he shoots, the more points he gets. But, the more he shoots the lower his team's TS% is for the game. TS%, number of shots the team takes, & the number of FTs too (to a lesser, but still important degree) determine who wins a game -- 100%.

Shooting a lot at a low TS% (even including all those FTAs) along with turning the ball over -- those two things are big time reasons that DeMarcus Cousins's teams lose.

So, no, I wouldn't say Cousins is one of those "bigs that score on you in many ways," he's one of those bigs that can miss shots in many ways. & turn the ball over in many ways as well.

Your points about Marcin's high *rates* of things that in fact he does very little of -- e.g. turnovers -- illustrate the problem with analytics of this kind. Lets say two guys each have one drink a day: are they both drunks? One takes his single drink from a thimble; the other one tips the bottle up and empties it in a single long event.

Finally, you claim that Cousins plays "solid defense." If so, that's a point in his favor. You mention that can "pass the ball with... effectiveness." Yes, that's evidenced in his assists. It also indicates that the ball in his hands a lot -- hard to pass the ball when someone else has it! -- but in this case you're happy to look at overall results, no mention of a "rate." That's saved for turnovers where for some reason the unbelievable, outlandish number of times Cousins turns the ball over every game isn't worth a mention & has no bearing on his value as a player. Really?

Bottom line: no DeMarcus Cousins doesn't "crush" Gortat as a Center. He has a long way to go to be as effective a Center as Gortat. I'm not a Cousins hater -- he just frustrates me. The guy is tremendously talented, exceptionally so. If he played the game the way that got the most out of that talent he'd be one of the best players in the game, no doubt about it. But he doesn't.

[payitforward]

I'm sorry I wrote at such length....

To me, there's only one key thing to understand, & it's buried in the above: team TS%, combined with the number of possessions that end in a shot or FT attempt, are 100% what determine who wins the game. 100%. Those 2 things & nothing else.

Don't believe it? Try to construct a scenario in which a team takes fewer shots than the opponent, gets to the line less, & posts a lower TS% -- yet wins the game.

Guys who shoot a low % & turn the ball over a lot cause their teams to lose. Guys like Cousins I mean.

[pcbothwel]

...In what way is Cousins "better" than Gortat? Please don't answer that he is "younger." Cady Lalanne is younger too. Please don't answer that he's "more athletic." Cady Lalanne is more athletic too.

Tell me about something that it's good to do at a high % which Cousins does at a higher % than Gortat.
Tell me about something that it's good to do more of which Cousins does more of than Gortat.
Tell me about something that it's good to do less of which Cousins does less of than Gortat....

Shooting: Cousins shot 36% from 3 last year and gets better each year with more attempts. Changes the dynamic of the offense.
Passing/Turnovers: Marcin has a higher TOV%: 13.5 vs 13.8 .... While Cousins has A MUCH higher AST%: 25.8 vs 6.8. Again, changes the dynamic of the offense.
Free Throws: Cousins gets more than 4 TIMES as many FTA per possession. Scoring aside, this affects the other team as their bigs get in foul trouble.
Defense: Cousins has Gortat in Steals: 2% vs 0.8%, and Blocks: 3.4% vs 2%
All-around analytics: WS/48, RPM, and VORP arent even comparable... Cousins crushes him.

Some will point to TS or ORtg, but I think those can be flawed for the impact of a low usage big that gets junk points. There is a reason why Cousins is considered an elite player in ORPM (16th overall). He ranked higher than Wall, Beal, Otto, Hayward, Blake, CJ, Klay, Love, PG13, etc.

When it comes to bigs that can score on you in a many ways, play solid defense, and pass the ball with the effectiveness he does... its literally Jokic, Cousins, Gasol... And no one else in the last 25 years

I know Cousins shot .36 on 3s last year. To which you add "changes the dynamic of the offense." It's such a big change that both teams he played for had as good a record without him as with him.

& on both (awful) teams, the rest of the roster produced points with the same efficiency as Cousins did. So... show me the benefit please?

It's also true that he gets to the line a lot, which you also claim "changes the dynamic" -- by getting the opposing team's bigs in foul trouble. As a narrative, that makes sense. Can you show me that as a matter of fact it actually makes a difference? I mention again that his teams had the same record with him as without him.

As to the % itself, here's the thing: Gortat shot 58% on 2-point attempts. What that means is that if Gortat takes 5 of those, & Cousins takes 5 3-pointers, Gortat is the one who scores more points. Hence, see above, in all those many many extra shots Cousins takes, he produces points extremely inefficiently leading his teams to... lose.

"More points" -- I believe that's what the refs look at the scoreboard to see which team has before they declare the winner. Now *that* I'd say really does "change the dynamic of the offense' -- by making you win the game.

But, it's more points scored by the team -- doesn't matter which individual has which number.

& what gets more points for the team? Efficiency. E.g. Cousins' trips to the line help. Unfortunately, DeMarcus Cousins, as a Center!, shoots 48% on 2-point attempts -- among the worst 2-pt. %s of all Centers or PFs in the league. & he takes a whole lot of them.

That too changes things. The more he shoots, the more points he gets. But, the more he shoots the lower his team's TS% is for the game. TS%, number of shots the team takes, & the number of FTs too (to a lesser, but still important degree) determine who wins a game -- 100%.

Shooting a lot at a low TS% (even including all those FTAs) along with turning the ball over -- those two things are big time reasons that DeMarcus Cousins's teams lose.

So, no, I wouldn't say Cousins is one of those "bigs that score on you in many ways," he's one of those bigs that can miss shots in many ways. & turn the ball over in many ways as well.

Your points about Marcin's high *rates* of things that in fact he does very little of -- e.g. turnovers -- illustrate the problem with analytics of this kind. Lets say two guys each have one drink a day: are they both drunks? One takes his single drink from a thimble; the other one tips the bottle up and empties it in a single long event.

Finally, you claim that Cousins plays "solid defense." If so, that's a point in his favor. You mention that can "pass the ball with... effectiveness." Yes, that's evidenced in his assists. It also indicates that the ball in his hands a lot -- hard to pass the ball when someone else has it! -- but in this case you're happy to look at overall results, no mention of a "rate." That's saved for turnovers where for some reason the unbelievable, outlandish number of times Cousins turns the ball over every game isn't worth a mention & has no bearing on his value as a player. Really?

Bottom line: no DeMarcus Cousins doesn't "crush" Gortat as a Center. He has a long way to go to be as effective a Center as Gortat. I'm not a Cousins hater -- he just frustrates me. The guy is tremendously talented, exceptionally so. If he played the game the way that got the most out of that talent he'd be one of the best players in the game, no doubt about it. But he doesn't.

This conversation is going nowhere, but you're wrong. I was one of the posters who (Correctly) viewed Gortat as being a more effective player than Cousins, but that was 2 years ago. Gortat has gotten worse and Cousins has gotten a lot better.

It's such a big change that both teams he played for had as good a record without him as with him

Huh? The kings won 42% of their games before the trade and 32% after...

TS: Gortat plays with John Freaking Wall... Of course he has a high TS. He has good hands and uses his body well (See the picks he sets), but Wall does all the work in drawing in the defense, getting to the rim, and delivering a beautiful pass to Gortat... Do you not think that Cousins efficiency would increase with a couple of those every game?

ORBD: I love offensive rebounds, but do you not think that stat is skewed as Cousins doesnt camp out in the paint? He shoots 3's and plays some minutes at the PF, both of which pull him away from the basket

AST/TOV: Im not sure of your point, Their TOV% is identical and their AST% is even close... Cousins AST% is 25% vs Gortat at 6%. Im not using different measurements.

he's one of those bigs that can miss shots in many ways. & turn the ball over in many ways as well....He has a long way to go to be as effective a Center as Gortat

I dont see how you can (appear) to make claims like this based on stats. This is not 2014, Beal was also overrated 2 years ago, but now he is a top 3 SG... things change.
The fact is that numbers like RPM/BPM, WS/48, and VORP give a pretty good indication on how good a player is when you take all things into account. Cousins is ELITE in all of them.
You make these claims about his offense like he is Al Harrington. I told you above that ORPM is a pretty strong stat that not many people argue with... Cousins rated higher than Wall, Beal, Otto, Hayward, Blake, CJ, Klay, Love, PG13, etc.
Maybe we should look at the 16 players that finished above him so see what this Stat indicates a player provides on offense:

Stephen Curry, PG
Russell Westbrook, PG
LeBron James, SF
James Harden, SG
Kawhi Leonard, SF
Isaiah Thomas, PG
Chris Paul, PG
Jimmy Butler, SG
Kyle Lowry, PG
Mike Conley, PG
Damian Lillard, PG
Nikola Jokic, C
Kevin Durant, SF
Kyrie Irving, PG
Kemba Walker, PG
Lou Williams, SG

All of those players were the absolute best of the best on offense last year... So explain to me how Cousins is sandwiched between this group and those listed above... yet Cousins is the only one who is some inefficient chucker... I'll wait

[Ruzious]

Cutting to the chase, this year is now or never for Cousins. He's got arguably the most talented player in the NBA as a teammate - Anthony Davis - along with a talented PG in Jrue Holiday. If they stay healthy and don't get a winning record... some people have got to stop with the excuses. If they get to the playoffs and actually do something there, then the other folks have to give him props. Sound reasonable? Then both sides write a 1,000 page dissertation on the pros and cons of Brook Lopez in the stretch 4 / 3 and D post appocalyptical world.

[pcbothwel]

Cutting to the chase, this year is now or never for Cousins. He's got arguably the most talented player in the NBA as a teammate - Anthony Davis - along with a talented PG in Jrue Holiday. If they stay healthy and don't get a winning record... some people have got to stop with the excuses. If they get to the playoffs and actually do something there, then the other folks have to give him props. Sound reasonable? Then both sides write a 1,000 page dissertation on the pros and cons of Brook Lopez in the stretch 4 / 3 and D post appocalyptical world.

Sorry, but I disagree. Certainly Cousins can regress/devolve and I'll be the first to lay blame at his feet.
But make no mistake, that team is set to fail.
1) Gentry is a terrible half court coach, and that is what Cousins does well.
2) They have 2 point guards and 2 high usage Centers in their starting lineup with no wings worth a roster spot in the NBA.
3) They have no fans and are the smallest media market
4) The West is LOADED. The top 6 teams from last year are still good, but the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Kings are now dangerous and the Blazers arent finished. So its the Pels, Grizzlies, Blazers, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Kings fighting for 2 spots... I dont see it

[payitforward]

Cousins... ...but Gortat... Cousins... ...yet Gortat... Cousins... ...but Gortat... Cousins... ...yet Gortat... Cousins... ...but Gortat... yet Cousins... ...while Gortat... Cousins... ...but Gortat...

Cousins... ...only Gortat... Cousins... ...but Gortat... Cousins... ...Gortat... still, Cousins... ...but Gortat... Cousins... ...but Gortat... .

This conversation is going nowhere, but you're wrong.

No, you're going nowhere -- this conversation is wrong!