The Consiglieri wrote:...Since I've been watching:
Draft Slot has risen: 3 times
Draft Slot has stayed the same: 6 times
Draft Slot has fallen: 11 times
And I had my eyes most fixed as a kid on this into my twenties in a time period in which we climbed up the draft once, stayed neutral 3 times, and fell 9 times. Since then we've had a bit more luck in my thirties, climbing another two times, and falling just 2 more times, but read it and weep man, our draft lottery history is god awful. Just celebrating the good 2010 draft, and the awful 2013 and 2001 draft climbs, while ignoring the litany of drops we've had or neutral results doesn't make much sense, especially when you consider that 8 of our 11 draft slot drops were multiple slots rather than just one, including in loaded drafts like the Shaq '92 and Webber '93 drafts which were brutal falls, the loaded '95 class, and the Harding/Step Curry '09 class, our slot fall in '09 was directly tied to the motivation our moron GM had to make his hideous trade of our pick for Mike Freaking Miller and Randy Foye. Two years later another gut punch lead us directly to draft bust Jan Vesely (maybe we make that same selection anyway since our idiot in chief was obsessed with drafting him going back to the '10 class Vesely ended up not declaring for).
I think what you may be missing is that
every single team goes down more often than it goes up.
Think about it: when one team goes up, every team above it goes down! Overall, the total number of places up or down by all teams is equal by definition, but when, for example, the #8 team goes up to #3, the teams that were previously #s 3-7 drop to 4-8. One team goes up 5 places, & 5 teams go down 1 place each.
In fact, from 2001 until now, we are up 6 spots overall. &, as I mentioned, our 2-spot jump in 2001 hurt us, while it's possible that our 1 spot drop in 2012 helped us.
As to 2009, if we hadn't dropped, if we'd been #2 instead of #5, there is no way we would have taken Steph Curry. No one would have. In fact, the most sensible point of view is that we'd have done exactly what the Grizz did with the #2 pick -- take Hasheem Thabeet!
