Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

[taj2133]

If you guys want rui hachimura better snag him at 9 otherwise the wolves will pick him at 11.

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[Dat2U]

If you guys want rui hachimura better snag him at 9 otherwise the wolves will pick him at 11.

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Outside of one or two posters, were not clamoring for him. I hope you guys get him.

[Dat2U]

Ideally Cam falls to us at 9. I feel like with Beal on the floor Cam will be in a position where he can attack and not have the defense focused on him. He might have an Otto Porter esque rookie season, but if he improves his steadily I can see him ultimately becoming the player that we hoped Otto would be.

Assuming that Cam goes before we pick, I'm taking Sekou. I'm not really interested in Hayes and Bol is way too risky to draft. The one that I could see us taking other than Sekou is Little. At 6'6 with a 7'2 wingspan, 220 pounds and an athletic frame Little is a tantalizing prospect. I wouldn't be mad if we took him at 9.

The thing I love about Sekou is that he just naturally plays the game the right way. Rotates on defense, doesn't force shots, makes the right pass etc. The one concern, though is that Sekou is so young. He reminds me of what Fran Fraschilla said about Bruno Caboclo way back when he was drafted, "He's two years away from being two years away." Without knowing what this teams plan is going forward, it's hard to pencil a player in that will play half the season at 18. But the upside is there. Dude could still be growing, he turned 18 December 23 and he already shows an outside shot. At the same time I can see it being 6 years before he's really ready to legitimately contribute.

I keep telling people that for a player to "have upside", it goes beyond the physical traits. A player is only as good as the decisions they make with the ball. Cam was TERRIBLE at this. They tried running their offense through him at the beginning of the season and he was disaster. When Zion was out, and Cam was forced to be a high usage player he scored more but he still didnt make good decisions nor was he very efficient.

Honestly Cam feels like Andrew Wiggins with a prettier release and less explosiveness. I see no fight in him either. He strikes me as the type to not punch back once he's punched.

I haven't felt as strongly about a likely bust since Ben McLemore who many felt was just as good a prospect as Bradley Beal.

[prime1time]

Ideally Cam falls to us at 9. I feel like with Beal on the floor Cam will be in a position where he can attack and not have the defense focused on him. He might have an Otto Porter esque rookie season, but if he improves his steadily I can see him ultimately becoming the player that we hoped Otto would be.

Assuming that Cam goes before we pick, I'm taking Sekou. I'm not really interested in Hayes and Bol is way too risky to draft. The one that I could see us taking other than Sekou is Little. At 6'6 with a 7'2 wingspan, 220 pounds and an athletic frame Little is a tantalizing prospect. I wouldn't be mad if we took him at 9.

The thing I love about Sekou is that he just naturally plays the game the right way. Rotates on defense, doesn't force shots, makes the right pass etc. The one concern, though is that Sekou is so young. He reminds me of what Fran Fraschilla said about Bruno Caboclo way back when he was drafted, "He's two years away from being two years away." Without knowing what this teams plan is going forward, it's hard to pencil a player in that will play half the season at 18. But the upside is there. Dude could still be growing, he turned 18 December 23 and he already shows an outside shot. At the same time I can see it being 6 years before he's really ready to legitimately contribute.

I keep telling people that for a player to "have upside", it goes beyond the physical traits. A player is only as good as the decisions they make with the ball. Cam was TERRIBLE at this. They tried running their offense through him at the beginning of the season and he was disaster. When Zion was out, and Cam was forced to be a high usage player he scored more but he still didnt make good decisions nor was he very efficient.

Honestly Cam feels like Andrew Wiggins with a prettier release and less explosiveness. I see no fight in him either. He strikes me as the type to not punch back once he's punched.

I haven't felt as strongly about a likely bust since Ben McLemore who many felt was just as good a prospect as Bradley Beal.

I can see the McLemore comparison, but there are real differences. Cam played pg for most of his life. McLemore played the 4 and the 5. I've argued about Cam in the Draft forum so I'm not really looking to argue about him here. I will say this. You can say that you look at Cam and see McLemore, I can say I look at Cam and see Beal. Beal shot 33% from 3 and 76% from the FT line in college. Cam shot 33% from 3 (on 2.4 more attempts than Beal) and 77% from the ft line. At the end of the day, I feel like if Cam projects as knock down shooter who'll need to be run off the three-point line and that if he can improve his ball handling he can be someone that can score in multiple ways offensively - coming off-screens, set three's, attacking the hoop and dribble pull-ups - all the while being 6'9 220 with 7'1 wingspan.

Is there a chance that he turns into Andrew Wiggins? Yes. But how bad would Andrew Wiggins be if he wasn't given free rein to do what he wanted to do from day 1? How much of a bust would Andrew Wiggins be if he was drafted at 9? If we trade Beal I wouldn't want to take Reddish, but like I said earlier, I think Reddish has the potential to succeed if you are willing to develop him an elite role player. If you look at him and expect him to be PG or Kawhi or Jimmy Butler then he'll probably fail.

Would you be willing to draft a guy who can guard 1-4, can shoot 3's and put the ball on the floor? If the answer is yes then Cam should be on the table. Just because he might not have the tools to be a star doesn't mean he's useless. Great teams are able to draft players and fit them to specific roles. In my opinion, Cam can succeed if you give him a role that's suited to his talents.

[taj2133]

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[taj2133]

Lot of nba general managers angry how the draft workouts are going, lot managers don't like the pro days and think its waste of time. This why lot of nba teams are angry with no individual team workouts.

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[taj2133]

Two guys who didn't have a good weekend were kevin porter junior and kz okpala. Kevin Porter junior didn't have a good workout with spurs got shut down by michagan guard charles matthews. KZ okpala didn't have a good workout with the jazz yesterday the jazz director of college scouting walt perrin said he was scared too shoot.

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[nate33]

If you guys want rui hachimura better snag him at 9 otherwise the wolves will pick him at 11.

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Seems like an odd fit for Minnesota. With KAT being so good offensively, I think they are in need of a defensively versatile, rebounding "grunt" at PF, not another finesse scorer with questionable toughness. They need more wings too.

[nate33]

You can say that you look at Cam and see McLemore, I can say I look at Cam and see Beal. Beal shot 33% from 3 and 76% from the FT line in college. Cam shot 33% from 3 (on 2.4 more attempts than Beal) and 77% from the ft line. At the end of the day, I feel like if Cam projects as knock down shooter who'll need to be run off the three-point line and that if he can improve his ball handling he can be someone that can score in multiple ways offensively - coming off-screens, set three's, attacking the hoop and dribble pull-ups - all the while being 6'9 220 with 7'1 wingspan.

Beal is an absurd comparison for Reddish. Beal was a MUCH better shot creator and scorer as evidenced by his massively superior 2P%. A really poor 2P% is always a big red flag that a guy can't finish at the next level. Also, Beal was also a MUCH better rebounder despite being 4 inches shorter - evidence of superior toughness, fight and basketball IQ. Beal also turned the ball over less, fouled less, and got to the free throw line more often. Here is how they compare statistically:

Reddish:





Beal:

[payitforward]

If you guys want rui hachimura better snag him at 9 otherwise the wolves will pick him at 11.

Outside of one or two posters, we're not clamoring for him. I hope you guys get him.

Yep... he's all yours.

[payitforward]

Ideally Cam falls to us at 9. I feel like with Beal on the floor Cam will be in a position where he can attack and not have the defense focused on him....

So... he couldn't do that at Duke with Zion & Barrett on the floor? No thanks....

...Assuming that Cam goes before we pick, I'm taking Sekou. ...The one that I could see us taking other than Sekou is Little. At 6'6 with a 7'2 wingspan, 220 pounds and an athletic frame Little is a tantalizing prospect. I wouldn't be mad if we took him at 9....

Little is a total mystery man. He did nothing in college. Didn't show he knew how to play the game. Yet, he is a super-athlete for sure. He could wind up Gerald Green, or he could wind up Kawhi Leonard.

...The thing I love about Sekou is that he just naturally plays the game the right way. Rotates on defense, doesn't force shots, makes the right pass etc. The one concern, though is that Sekou is so young. He reminds me of what Fran Fraschilla said about Bruno Caboclo way back when he was drafted, "He's two years away from being two years away." Without knowing what this teams plan is going forward, it's hard to pencil a player in that will play half the season at 18. But the upside is there. Dude could still be growing, he turned 18 December 23 and he already shows an outside shot. At the same time I can see it being 6 years before he's really ready to legitimately contribute.

Two years away from being two years away from being two years away? For his sake, I hope not!

[payitforward]

Beal is an absurd comparison for Reddish....

It's pretty simple in a way.

There are false positives -- guys who excel in college but don't make it in the league.
But there are no false negatives -- guys who don't play well in college but turn into good pros.

"No" as in "none," "zero." Look carefully, try hard. You won't find one.

Could Cam Reddish be the first one? Ever? Sure, anything can happen. But if I had to choose between Cam Reddish &, for example, Dedric Lawson, I'd take Lawson all day long. & he's projected in the middle of R2 at best.

[prime1time]

You can say that you look at Cam and see McLemore, I can say I look at Cam and see Beal. Beal shot 33% from 3 and 76% from the FT line in college. Cam shot 33% from 3 (on 2.4 more attempts than Beal) and 77% from the ft line. At the end of the day, I feel like if Cam projects as knock down shooter who'll need to be run off the three-point line and that if he can improve his ball handling he can be someone that can score in multiple ways offensively - coming off-screens, set three's, attacking the hoop and dribble pull-ups - all the while being 6'9 220 with 7'1 wingspan.

Beal is an absurd comparison for Reddish. Beal was a MUCH better shot creator and scorer as evidenced by his massively superior 2P%. A really poor 2P% is always a big red flag that a guy can't finish at the next level. Also, Beal was also a MUCH better rebounder despite being 4 inches shorter - evidence of superior toughness, fight and basketball IQ. Beal also turned the ball over less, fouled less, and got to the free throw line more often. Here is how they compare statistically:

Reddish:





Beal:

Is that the only part of my post that you read? I also said that if you look at Cam as being a role player and limit his offense to places where he can be successful he can be an effective player. If Cam and Beal were perfect comparisons we wouldn't have a chance to drsft him. People on this site seem to delight in the fact that Cam doesn't project as an elite player. No one who advocates for drafting Cam disagrees with that. The terrible 2p% is highly frightening. At the same time, like I said in my post, his 3-point shooting and ft shooting is comparable to Beal. So if you look at Cam as a 3-D guy who has the potential to grow into something else rather than a potentially efficient high volume scorer Cam can be a good pick.

Is Cam and Beal a perfect comparison? No. But Beal's success at shooting in the NBA and his similar shooting percentages to Cam provide hope for Cam's shooting ability. Combine that with Reddish improving his ball handling and his size, length and frame and you have a 3-D guy that is worthy of the 9th pick. Not to mention that there is always the potential for him to develop into more. If Cam was a perfect Beal comp, we wouldn't have a chance to draft him. The team's job at 9, in a subpar draft, is to find potential diamond in the rough players. Players who, given a new role, can be successful.

So while you certainly make a great argument about why Beal is better than Cam, I still think Cam is the ideal pick for the Wizards at 9 in a weak draft. You can talk about how Beal is a better rebounder, but Cam literally just stood at the 3-point line all game because that's what the offense called for him to do. Beal does have a better fight, toughness and b-ball iq but again, I'm not drafting Cam to lead the team. I'm drafting him to be a role player.

Also, a while back I was reading the athletic and they did a scouting report on all the Duke players. The problem that Reddish faced is that he didn't have an answer for the way teams tried to defend him. They'd put smaller guards on him to get up under him and challenge his dribble. Because his handles were subpar he had no answer for it. So from my perspective, what you saw was a talented player put in no-win situation. If he doesn't play well and put up big numbers everyone will say he's a fraud. If he tries to score and fails people will question his heart. So what do you get? A guy who forced a lot of players (putting him as a role player could fix this). At the same time, the question is as his ball handling improves, how much will his on court performance increase.

I understand where the people who don't like Cam Reddish are coming from. He's a flawed prospect. But because of that flaw, we have a chance to draft him. Players with his size, length, height and shooting ability don't come along often.

[TGW]

Cam Reddish is a scrub. Pass.

[Dat2U]

In the NBA, decision making is king.

[queridiculo]

Cam Reddish is a scrub. Pass.

[queridiculo]

Assuming Zion works out, he'll just be the exception to the rule.

Do not draft Duke players.

[Illmatic12]

The Stepien writers have done an analysis on hundreds of NBA draft prospects , and one of the main correlations between NCAA production and NBA success is rebounding. A pro player vs inferior competition will generally stand out in terms of their anticipation, reflexes , physical toughness and rebounding is one way to filter these players to the top.

Players like Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington were examples of outlier rebounders for their size in NCAA competition.. not necessarily because they were the biggest players , but because they were reading the game on a higher level and had a certain instinct or “nose” for the ball that can’t be taught.

They ran a similarity comparison and on average the players who comp’d to Reddish in terms of Reb/blk production .. were 6’4 guards.

Cam’s low rebounding numbers for his size are indicative of a general inactivity and sluggishness/poor anticipation that may doom him at the professional level. Deandre Hunter is another player who has an unusually low production level in “activity” stats , which gives me some pause on his upside as well.

[taj2133]

It looks like coby white is going to the suns somebody is going to drop to you guys possibly reddish,hunter, hayes, sekou,fernado, clarke, bol or little could be available to you guys.

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Vanderbilt’s Darius Garland was rumored to get promised he’ll get drafted by a certain team.

He might not be the only point guard with a high-lottery promise.

North Carolina’s Coby White has also generated plenty of speculation.

K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune:

After meeting the media and interviewing with select teams, White left the combine with widespread speculation that he, too, has received a draft promise. Two league executives who spoke with the Tribune believe White’s promise is from a team that picks before the Bulls.

The Bulls have the No. 7 pick, so reviewing the six teams picking higher:

1. Pelicans

Zion Williamson is the obvious pick.

2. Grizzlies

They’re reportedly set on Ja Morant.

3. Knicks

This seems too high, with R.J. Barrett the consensus No. 3 prospect. I’d be open to picking White ahead of Barrett, but I definitely wouldn’t promise to do so this early in the process.

4. Lakers

The draft opens way up at this point. Count White among the viable prospects. But with Lonzo Ball already in Los Angeles, would the Lakers really lock into White this early?

5. Cavaliers

The Cavs already have Collin Sexton, who shouldn’t preclude them from drafting another point guard. But he probably does. He should at least make Cleveland less likely to promise White.

6. Suns

The Suns reportedly didn’t promise Garland. That makes them a prime suspect for the White promise. Phoenix badly needs a point guard.

One more theory: The Bulls promised White, and – especially with this report coming from Chicago – this is a smokescreen. They definitely could use another point guard.
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2019/05/27/rumor-coby-white-has-top-six-promise-in-draft/

[nate33]

The Stepien writers have done an analysis on hundreds of NBA draft prospects , and one of the main correlations between NCAA production and NBA success is rebounding. A pro player vs inferior competition will generally stand out in terms of their anticipation, reflexes , physical toughness and rebounding is one way to filter these players to the top.

Players like Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington were examples of outlier rebounders for their size in NCAA competition.. not necessarily because they were the biggest players , but because they were reading the game on a higher level and had a certain instinct or “nose” for the ball that can’t be taught.

They ran a similarity comparison and on average the players who comp’d to Reddish in terms of Reb/blk production .. were 6’4 guards.

Cam’s low rebounding numbers for his size are indicative of a general inactivity and sluggishness/poor anticipation that may doom him at the professional level. Deandre Hunter is another player who has an unusually low production level in “activity” stats , which gives me some pause on his upside as well.

Another relevant Stepien article I read discussed the situations when a single team had 3 top 25 prospects on their team (like Duke with Zion, Barrett and Reddish, or Kentucky with Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Terrence Jones or Florida with Noah, Horford and Brewer). In almost all cases the 3rd "star" is highly overrated and ends up disappointing in the NBA.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/03/04/draft-notes-non-zion-duke-freshmen/