Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[MagicBagley18]

I don't think he's against a rebuild as much as he is against tanking. He wants to try and win. He doesn't want to just toss 3-5 seasons down the drain on purpose.

Wizards fans are tempting fate when we reject Beal trade proposals with indignation. It's still possible the Wiz make a terrible trade. Logically I think going after Jaylen Brown or Brandon Ingram on the final year of their rookie contract doesn't make sense, but I wouldn't put it past any FO to think they could speed up the rebuild by pairing one of these players with Rui.

Yea and quite frankly I don’t think brown can be the centerpiece either but you made a great point. Again I didn’t come in here to talk **** I just like getting other fans perspective and since he’s logically the next potential star available wanted to read some fans opinions.

Leonsis is on record being against rebuilding correct? Does you guys think he means that with convinction?

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Gotcha. I guess putting myself in your shoes - the biggest fear in any potential Beal trade is the front office goes after guys that try and keep you afloat or would only allow you to compete for one of the final playoff spots.

With rui and getting a decent return for Beal your future could be very bright even tho it sucks to lose him. Miami taking back walls contract is enticing but after that- there’s not much else in terms of assets. U guys nailed it where you have to get a lot one young promising up and coming player and picks.

[Mojo Amok]

Leonsis is on record being against rebuilding correct? Does you guys think he means that with convinction?

Leonsis did say that, but we can't really take the statement at face value, IMO. He'll say things like "we're not going to trade Otto Porter" a week or two before...trading Otto Porter. We also did tank for a bit there under Ted's watch as we acquired high picks at the start of the decade.

I think he was basically just saying that "the team won't suck for the rest of this season, so please continue buying tickets." Tommy Sheppard is certainly not making the sorts of moves that you'd execute if your job security depended on short term results, so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

[gambitx777]

The reason we are so opposed to using Beal value to move wall is 2 fold. One we still whole heartedly feel Beal wants to be here and 2 if wall comes back and is in anyway a positive player and not a net negative, and is in someway productive, maybe not living up to the price tag but productive, in some way. He will be movable and not at a negative . Russ and connaly both got moved for good hauls so that's why we hold out hope for wall, if he comes back ok

I don't think he's against a rebuild as much as he is against tanking. He wants to try and win. He doesn't want to just toss 3-5 seasons down the drain on purpose.

Yea and quite frankly I don’t think brown can be the centerpiece either but you made a great point. Again I didn’t come in here to talk **** I just like getting other fans perspective and since he’s logically the next potential star available wanted to read some fans opinions.

Leonsis is on record being against rebuilding correct? Does you guys think he means that with convinction?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Gotcha. I guess putting myself in your shoes - the biggest fear in any potential Beal trade is the front office goes after guys that try and keep you afloat or would only allow you to compete for one of the final playoff spots.

With rui and getting a decent return for Beal your future could be very bright even tho it sucks to lose him. Miami taking back walls contract is enticing but after that- there’s not much else in terms of assets. U guys nailed it where you have to get a lot one young promising up and coming player and picks.

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[deneem4]

We need to sign Christian wood to a 3yr contract assp

[closg00]

We need to sign Christian wood to a 3yr contract assp

ARGH!!! Just saw that he got waived, he is once-again the odd man out. PLEASE make room on a cheapie deal, he can hit the trey too

Watch on YouTube

[gambitx777]

We should sign Christian wood right now! And not a second I later. Cut McRae or Phillips or Jones , or **** it cut ian and eat that money, get this man a spot on the team.

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[payitforward]

...I count 1 player who is well above average at his position: Beal.
I count 1 player who is about average at his position: Bryant....

Here's some context about where Bryant ranks at his position. All these numbers are per 48 minutes, b/c that is what's in front of me, & I'm too lazy to do the math:

points:
Bryant -- 24.3
Average NBA big -- 21.6

Defensive Rebounds:
Bryant -- 10.9
Average NBA big -- 9.1

Offensive Rebounds:
Bryant -- 3.6
Average NBA big -- 3.3

Assists:
Bryant -- 3
Average NBA big -- 3.4

Turnovers:
Bryant -- 1.9
Average NBA big -- 2.6

Blocks:
Bryant -- 2.1
Average NBA big -- 1.6

Steals:
Bryant -- .8
Average NBA big -- 1.3

Personal Fouls:
Bryant -- 4
Average NBA big -- 4.7

2 Point FG%:
Bryant -- 68.5%
Average NBA big -- 54.9%

3 Point FG%:
Bryant -- 33.3%
Average NBA big -- 35.3%

FT%:
Bryant -- 78.1%
Average NBA big -- 73.3%

EFG%:
Bryant -- 64.8%
Average NBA big -- 54.4%

TS%:
Bryant -- 67.4%
Average NBA big -- 57.7%

FGAs:
Bryant -- 16.1
Average NBA big -- 16.6

FTAs:
Bryant -- 4.4
Average NBA big -- 4.9

Points per shot attempted:
Bryant -- 1.51
Average NBA big -- 1.30

Now, this is Bryant vs. an average "big" -- i.e. 4 or 5 -- not just vs. an average Center. Simply b/c this is what I have easy access to. Overall, if I compare him to all NBA Centers who played 420 or more minutes (i.e. to correct for small sample sizes), Bryant was 18th out of @135 guys.

Of course, Bryant only started for maybe 40% of the season. If I want to compare him to other starters, I can list only guys with, say, 2000 or more minutes, & then compare Bryant overall to them. On that basis, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, & Karl-Anthony Towns put up better numbers overall than Thomas Bryant.

Along with KAT, Thomas Bryant is the best young Center in the league. That is, he was last year. We'll see how he plays this year. & of course I'm not considering anything but numbers that anybody can understand. Not counting "mystery meat" roll ups. But, however you look at it, this is not an "average starter." This is an extremely rapidly developing young stud.

[nate33]

...I count 1 player who is well above average at his position: Beal.
I count 1 player who is about average at his position: Bryant....

Here's some context about where Bryant ranks at his position. All these numbers are per 48 minutes, b/c that is what's in front of me, & I'm too lazy to do the math:

points:
Bryant -- 24.3
Average NBA big -- 21.6

Defensive Rebounds:
Bryant -- 10.9
Average NBA big -- 9.1

Offensive Rebounds:
Bryant -- 3.6
Average NBA big -- 3.3

Assists:
Bryant -- 3
Average NBA big -- 3.4

Turnovers:
Bryant -- 1.9
Average NBA big -- 2.6

Blocks:
Bryant -- 2.1
Average NBA big -- 1.6

Steals:
Bryant -- .8
Average NBA big -- 1.3

Personal Fouls:
Bryant -- 4
Average NBA big -- 4.7

2 Point FG%:
Bryant -- 68.5%
Average NBA big -- 54.9%

3 Point FG%:
Bryant -- 33.3%
Average NBA big -- 35.3%

FT%:
Bryant -- 78.1%
Average NBA big -- 73.3%

EFG%:
Bryant -- 64.8%
Average NBA big -- 54.4%

TS%:
Bryant -- 67.4%
Average NBA big -- 57.7%

FGAs:
Bryant -- 16.1
Average NBA big -- 16.6

FTAs:
Bryant -- 4.4
Average NBA big -- 4.9

Points per shot attempted:
Bryant -- 1.51
Average NBA big -- 1.30

Now, this is Bryant vs. an average "big" -- i.e. 4 or 5 -- not just vs. an average Center. Simply b/c this is what I have easy access to. Overall, if I compare him to all NBA Centers who played 420 or more minutes (i.e. to correct for small sample sizes), Bryant was 18th out of @135 guys.

Of course, Bryant only started for maybe 40% of the season. If I want to compare him to other starters, I can list only guys with, say, 2000 or more minutes, & then compare Bryant overall to them. On that basis, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, & Karl-Anthony Towns put up better numbers overall than Thomas Bryant.

Along with KAT, Thomas Bryant is the best young Center in the league. That is, he was last year. We'll see how he plays this year. & of course I'm not considering anything but numbers that anybody can understand. Not counting "mystery meat" roll ups. But, however you look at it, this is not an "average starter." This is an extremely rapidly developing young stud.

Bryant is a starting center. So when I meant average for his position, I was comparing him to the 29 other starting centers in this league. You're own analysis says he ranks 18th of 135 centers. If we assume that most of the guys ranking ahead of him are starters, that would put him in the middle of the 30 starting centers in this league.

Also, let's not overlook that Bryant's strength is on offense, which is reflected nicely by box score numbers. Bryant's defense is behind his offense, but defense isn't really captured very well in box score stats.

Using a non-box score method, ESPN's RPM, Bryant ranks 27th among all centers and 21st among centers who averaged 20 or more minutes in 60 or more games. Again, that looks about average to me.

I'm not hating. Being an average starter as a 21-year-old with 1500 career minutes under his belt is pretty damn impressive. I'm sure he'll get much better going forward. But the point I was originally making was how good are we right now. Right now, I see one above-average starter (Beal), one average starter (Bryant), and almost everyone else being below-average for their position (the starters aren't as good as average starters and the backups aren't as good as average backups). I suppose whichever of Rui, Brown or Bertans comes off the bench will end up being above-average for a backup forward, but that's about it. So that's 3 out of 10 rotation players who are average or better for their position.

[dangermouse]

I mean with Beal, a rookie of the year worthy effort by rui, a big jump from brown and Bryant could get us to the 22-19

I think they have the bottom 6 teams about right. I think it's possible, and perhaps likely, that the Wizards finish ahead of Phoenix and Memphis in the standings because the competition in the East is so much worse, but in the abstract, Phoenix and Memphis are still better than us.

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Rookies are rarely impactful in terms of actual wins and losses. Rui would need to be as impactful as guys like Doncic, Trey Young, Josh Jackson or Jason Tatum in their rookie year to really move the needle much. I'm talking Rookie of the Year caliber play. While that's conceivably possible, I'm not going to count on it.

I count 1 player who is well above average at his position: Beal.
I count 1 player who is about average at his position: Bryant.

Everyone else is below average at their position. The other "starters" should probably be backups, and many of the backups should be 11th or 12th men.

I concur on your assessment of our current starters, and share in the melancholy if this situation lol

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant. But I can see Rui being in the top 3 rankings at some point during the season and "in the ROY mix" so to speak.

I think a Josh Jackson and even Tatum level impact is a very strong possibility for sure.

Beal, Bryant/Rui (tied), Brown Jnr will be our best players, in that order. (unless IT has a miraculous resurgence).

[prime1time]

The reality is that this is only a basketball forum. If the Wiz trade Beal we won't have any power over what they get in return. But I'm not going to let that fact dictate what I think a good return for him is. Beal has the power to turn a one star team into a legit contender and he has two years left on his deal. Ergo, I expect to be compensated in the same ball park as a New Orleans. That's where trade talks start with me. I don't care to get rid of Wall's contract. We won't be competing for the next few years regardless. I want assets to build the team going forward.

Also, as far as I'm concerned, Rui is the second best player on the team. You can post whatever stat you want about Thomas Bryant, but I know skill when I see it. The vast majority of Bryant's points are spoon fed to him via Beal or hustle energy points. Rui will be able to attack players one-on-one and score. This is the most important skill any player can have in the league. Now I might be wrong about Bryant but he's going to have to prove it to me on the court. He needs to improve his rebounding and improve his defense. Then we can talk.

[Ruzious]

The reality is that this is only a basketball forum. If the Wiz trade Beal we won't have any power over what they get in return. But I'm not going to let that fact dictate what I think a good return for him is. Beal has the power to turn a one star team into a legit contender and he has two years left on his deal. Ergo, I expect to be compensated in the same ball park as a New Orleans. That's where trade talks start with me. I don't care to get rid of Wall's contract. We won't be competing for the next few years regardless. I want assets to build the team going forward.

Also, as far as I'm concerned, Rui is the second best player on the team. You can post whatever stat you want about Thomas Bryant, but I know skill when I see it. The vast majority of Bryant's points are spoon fed to him via Beal or hustle energy points. Rui will be able to attack players one-on-one and score. This is the most important skill any player can have in the league. Now I might be wrong about Bryant but he's going to have to prove it to me on the court. He needs to improve his rebounding and improve his defense. Then we can talk.

Totally agree that Bryant has to improve a lot on defense, but I call shenanigans on your comments about his offense. People made up their minds that Bryant wasn't a good scorer before actually watching him play - and therefore want to make up reasons for being wrong about him. Bradley Beal is a shooting guard with good passing skills, but let's not make out that he's Chris Paul setting up his teammates. Bryant helped Beal getting assists more than Beal did anything special for Bryant. If anything, Bryant should have gotten more opportunities, but playing with veterans like Jabari Parker, Portis, Green and Ariza - he had to defer, He has great hands, and is very good at presenting a target near the basket - and he's really got great touch, and I think we'll see him making more 3's this season. His strength is also underrated - he finished through contact about as well as anyone I saw last season. And he's a good rebounder - certainly better than anyone else on the Wiz.

Right now, Bryant is the clear 2nd best player on the team. Let's see what Rui does outside of a few games in Vegas against questionable competition. It remains to be seen if Rui even starts.

[payitforward]

...I count 1 player who is well above average at his position: Beal.
I count 1 player who is about average at his position: Bryant....

Here's some context about where Bryant ranks at his position...

...Now, this is Bryant vs. an average "big" -- i.e. 4 or 5 -- not just vs. an average Center. Simply b/c this is what I have easy access to. Overall, if I compare him to all NBA Centers who played 420 or more minutes (i.e. to correct for small sample sizes), Bryant was 18th out of @135 guys.

Of course, Bryant only started for maybe 40% of the season. If I want to compare him to other starters, I can list only guys with, say, 2000 or more minutes, & then compare Bryant overall to them. On that basis, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, & Karl-Anthony Towns put up better numbers overall than Thomas Bryant.

Along with KAT, Thomas Bryant is the best young Center in the league. ...not an "average starter." ...an extremely rapidly developing young stud.

Bryant is a starting center. So when I meant average for his position, I was comparing him to the 29 other starting centers in this league. You're own analysis says he ranks 18th of 135 centers. If we assume that most of the guys ranking ahead of him are starters, that would put him in the middle of the 30 starting centers in this league.

Also, let's not overlook that Bryant's strength is on offense, which is reflected nicely by box score numbers. Bryant's defense is behind his offense, but defense isn't really captured very well in box score stats.

Using a non-box score method, ESPN's RPM, Bryant ranks 27th among all centers and 21st among centers who averaged 20 or more minutes in 60 or more games. Again, that looks about average to me.

I'm not hating. Being an average starter as a 21-year-old with 1500 career minutes under his belt is pretty damn impressive. I'm sure he'll get much better going forward. But the point I was originally making was how good are we right now. Right now, I see one above average starter (Beal), one average starter (Bryant), and almost everyone else being below average for their position (the starters aren't as good as average starters and the backups aren't as good as average backups). Maybe whichever of Rui or Bertans comes off the bench will end up being above average for a backup forward, but that's about it. So that's 3 out of 10 rotation players who are above average for their position.

I know you're not hating, & of course I agree about the overall talent on our roster. But, see the text above that I've bolded for a comparison of Bryant's numbers with other starting Centers.

I've used WP48 to do the ordered list on which Bryant does so well. Not because I "believe" in it, but because at least it has an extremely high correlation w/ wins & lossed (@ 94%), which it means that it's measuring what counts towards game results. As well, it's work by an academic sports economist, it's peer-reviewed, published, etc.

As to RPM, to me at least it is the epitome of what I called "mystery meat" in my post. How is it calculated? That's a secret. How does it correlate to wins/losses? The subject is not discussed anywhere to my knowledge. That makes it meaningless in my book. Moreover, one way or another, I guarantee you that it's based on the same box score stats as anything else -- tho no doubt with an admixture of some kind of "special sauce" numerology.

You are right, of course, that box score numbers do a bad job of accounting for defense (w/ the exceptions of fouls & steals -- overall, better defenders foul less & get more steals than bad defenders). &, anyway, in fairness no set of numbers is an actual picture of the real world. They're just tools, & -- as with other tools -- how skillfully you use them matters as much as the numbers themselves, maybe more.

All the same, I have to stay with describing Bryant as "not an "average starter." ...an extremely rapidly developing young stud."

[nate33]

Here's some context about where Bryant ranks at his position...

...Now, this is Bryant vs. an average "big" -- i.e. 4 or 5 -- not just vs. an average Center. Simply b/c this is what I have easy access to. Overall, if I compare him to all NBA Centers who played 420 or more minutes (i.e. to correct for small sample sizes), Bryant was 18th out of @135 guys.

Of course, Bryant only started for maybe 40% of the season. If I want to compare him to other starters, I can list only guys with, say, 2000 or more minutes, & then compare Bryant overall to them. On that basis, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Andre Drummond, Nikola Jokic, & Karl-Anthony Towns put up better numbers overall than Thomas Bryant.

Along with KAT, Thomas Bryant is the best young Center in the league. ...not an "average starter." ...an extremely rapidly developing young stud.

Bryant is a starting center. So when I meant average for his position, I was comparing him to the 29 other starting centers in this league. You're own analysis says he ranks 18th of 135 centers. If we assume that most of the guys ranking ahead of him are starters, that would put him in the middle of the 30 starting centers in this league.

Also, let's not overlook that Bryant's strength is on offense, which is reflected nicely by box score numbers. Bryant's defense is behind his offense, but defense isn't really captured very well in box score stats.

Using a non-box score method, ESPN's RPM, Bryant ranks 27th among all centers and 21st among centers who averaged 20 or more minutes in 60 or more games. Again, that looks about average to me.

I'm not hating. Being an average starter as a 21-year-old with 1500 career minutes under his belt is pretty damn impressive. I'm sure he'll get much better going forward. But the point I was originally making was how good are we right now. Right now, I see one above average starter (Beal), one average starter (Bryant), and almost everyone else being below average for their position (the starters aren't as good as average starters and the backups aren't as good as average backups). Maybe whichever of Rui or Bertans comes off the bench will end up being above average for a backup forward, but that's about it. So that's 3 out of 10 rotation players who are above average for their position.

I know you're not hating, & of course I agree about the overall talent on our roster. But, see the text above that I've bolded for a comparison of Bryant's numbers with other starting Centers.

I've used WP48 to do the ordered list on which Bryant does so well. Not because I "believe" in it, but because at least it has an extremely high correlation w/ wins & lossed (@ 94%), which it means that it's measuring what counts towards game results. As well, it's work by an academic sports economist, it's peer-reviewed, published, etc.

As to RPM, to me at least it is the epitome of what I called "mystery meat" in my post. How is it calculated? That's a secret. How does it correlate to wins/losses? The subject is not discussed anywhere to my knowledge. That makes it meaningless in my book. Moreover, one way or another, I guarantee you that it's based on the same box score stats as anything else -- tho no doubt with an admixture of some kind of "special sauce" numerology.

You are right, of course, that box score numbers do a bad job of accounting for defense (w/ the exceptions of fouls & steals -- overall, better defenders foul less & get more steals than bad defenders). &, anyway, in fairness no set of numbers is an actual picture of the real world. They're just tools, & -- as with other tools -- how skillfully you use them matters as much as the numbers themselves, maybe more.

All the same, I have to stay with describing Bryant as "not an "average starter." ...an extremely rapidly developing young stud."

I'm sorry. I can't sit here and declare that Bryant is the 7th best center in the game. I don't think any GM in the league would concur with that. Certainly, the fact that we signed him to a 3-year $22M deal suggests that the league does not value him anywhere near that ball park.

Of the top of my head, I'd say the following centers are currently better than Bryant:

Jokic
Davis
Embiid
Gobert
Anthony-Towns
Horford
Nurkic
M.Gasol
Drummond
Capela
Turner
Aldridge

That's 12.

I think Bryant is somewhere in the mix among the following guys:

B.Lopez
Dedmon
Adams
Adebayo
M.Robinson

So that puts him in the 13-18 range - about average.

[payitforward]

I'm sorry. I can't sit here and declare that Bryant is the 7th best center in the game....

Good God, nate! Me neither! Numbers don't take the place of thinking! Viz.

... in fairness no set of numbers is an actual picture of the real world. They're just tools, & -- as with other tools -- how skillfully you use them matters as much as the numbers themselves, maybe more.

A bunch of other things would go into a judgment like "the 7th best center in the game." For one thing, a player would have to establish himself at that level. Bryant is still 21. He absolutely killed it last year; lets see what he does this year!

& of course that figures into what one is willing to pay a guy. So it's no surprise that...

...I don't think any GM in the league would concur with that. Certainly, the fact that we signed him to a 3-year $22M deal suggests that the league does not value him anywhere near that ball park...

& shouldn't. & of course doesn't have to -- at 21 you don't command a huge salary yet.

But the context of my response to you, & the point of all those numbers, was his level of play last year. Bryant played at a high level indeed. In 1496 minutes, he produced at a level way above an average starter. Which is why I called him "an extremely rapidly developing young stud."

I did describe him, with Towns, "the best young Center in the game." Actually, that should be "with Towns & Mitchell Robinson." & Bam, come to think of it, whom you mention.

Of course, "young" is a relative word -- i.e. b/c Joel Embiid has established himself, he's not in my mind among the "young Centers" in the way Bryant, Robinson & Bam are. Yet, for sure, he is still young in years.

[doclinkin]

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant.

Zero chance it'll be Zion for ROY. Brandon Clarke will win it, if only because it will make PIF insufferable forever.

[Ruzious]

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant.

Zero chance it'll be Zion for ROY. Brandon Clarke will win it, if only because it will make PIF insufferable forever.

Nah, Zion's too fat for his knees, and Clarke's too skinny for his... knees. The ROY wil be...

Spoiler:

Iggy Brazdeikis

- much to the chagrin of

Spoiler:

RJ Barrett

.

[nate33]

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant.

Zero chance it'll be Zion for ROY. Brandon Clarke will win it, if only because it will make PIF insufferable forever.

I've already resigned myself to that fate.

[JWizmentality]

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant.

Zero chance it'll be Zion for ROY. Brandon Clarke will win it, if only because it will make PIF insufferable forever.

I've already resigned myself to that fate.

God help us all.

I'm still not convinced Clarks'e game will translate well to the NBA, but we'll see. I wish the young man well.

If Rui gets the PT and coaching/development he needs. I think he has better potential.

[payitforward]

As for Rui not having an impact, I think he will (as long as he starts at the 4 and gets minutes). Im not too proud to admit I was wrong about him at the draft. He seems to have "it." I don't think he'll win ROY. That'll be Zion's to lose - probably to a guard like Morant.

Zero chance it'll be Zion for ROY. Brandon Clarke will win it, if only because it will make PIF insufferable forever.

If Clarke wins RoY (which I'm not predicting, btw), I promise not to be "insufferable forever." I'll be insufferable for two weeks & no more!

[closg00]

We have one more two-player slot, who should it go to?