2021 Draft Thread - Part II

[TGW]

Garuba gives me that Keveeeeeen Serapheeeeen vibes. I'd pass.

[Frichuela]

Here is the list of invitees to the NBA draft "Green Room", and possible additions.

I am surprised Springer is not on the list..Any other names that are missing?

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?s=20

[gambitx777]

Here is the list of invitees to the NBA draft "Green Room", and possible additions.

I am surprised Springer is not on the list..Any other names that are missing?

Read on Twitter

?s=20

I've seen mocks that have butler and darute maybe falling to the second round. Like why invite them????


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[prime1time]

All I'll say is to be accountable for your pre-draft predictions. Time will tell.

[gambitx777]

I'm gonna jump out on a limb here and say this I think this might be one of those drafts with a lot of fool's gold in it in the first half. I would not mind getting a couple seconds with a lot of really interesting guys possibly falling .

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[FAH1223]

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[dckingsfan]

I've seen mocks that have butler and darute maybe falling to the second round. Like why invite them????

We are buying a second round pick?

[Ruzious]

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Duarte's such a skilled scorer. He actually made 63% of his 2's - and 42.4% of his 3's. But he was older than everyone else - 24 already. Such a tempting player, but I gotta draw the line at his age. Weiskamp is a somewhat similar player who's a little bigger and only 21 - and he'll likely go later than Duarte. I go with Weiskamp in a trade down. Gotta get Weiskamp in a trade down this draft. Got to.

[Ruzious]

I've seen mocks that have butler and darute maybe falling to the second round. Like why invite them????

We are buying a second round pick?

2 of them if they're on sale.

[payitforward]

...as Frichuela says, our need for 3 point shooting is dire. I am moved by "fit" (PIF is turning red in the background)....

There is no rule so absolute that it can't be broken from time to time -- to good effect. Whether this is one of those times is mostly a matter of how good that "fit" candidate is -- how good at the skill that makes him fit, of course, but also how good overall. Or, to put it another way, how close he is to being that bpa.

One ought to keep in mind too, I guess, that every team makes bad picks. Either non-optimal (not the best guy) or much worse (a guy who doesn't make it as an NBA player). Probably as many bad ones as good ones.

That's why trading down is usually a good idea. Getting two for one immediately increases your chances.

[payitforward]

I would absolutely trade down. There are three teams you could do this with.
Houston 2, 23, 24
New York 19, 21
Oklahoma 6, 16, 18

I think Oklahoma is out - too close. I worry that they will want to do the same with their 16th pick - but three picks is a lot to develop in a year.

I think the problem is that NY is probably thinking the same way?

Houston on the other hand wants to trade up - but for the #1 pick. They might do 15 for 23 & 24 if 2 & 15 gets the #1 - but I think this is doubtful.The other way they would do a trade is for us to remove the protections on our 2023 1st round pick? Do you take that risk? Or Wood, 23, 24 for Bryant & Hutchison 15 and removing protections on our 2023 pick. Pretty steep.

So, although I would like to see it get done - I don't see it getting done.

Edit: One more thing - I sure hope we purchase at least 1 second round pick.

Well... you more or less repeated my proposal to trade with Houston. They will never do 15 for 23 & 24. If 15 & 2 would get them 1, so would 23, 24 & 2, so why trade?

But, as I say... remove/lighten the protections on our #23 r1 & maybe there's a deal there.

Because teams value higher picks. History has shown your valuation of 23 + 24 is way higher than NBA GMs. Probably because your valuation of an open roster spot is way lower than NBA GMs.

Hey, you may be right, but... it's not "my" valuation of 23 + 24. Thinking about this kind of trade, I use Kevin Pelton as my starting point (http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2). There's plenty of work behind his chart; he's not guessing, he's using research & analysis.

Of course, he could still be all wrong -- but... does it seem likely? Even if he's not all wrong, though, it's still not some kind of hard and fast rule -- how could it be? Plus, there would also have to be exceptions. Or other considerations -- e.g. Memphis took on Mario Hezonja's salary when they made that draft day trade for Desmond Bane.

But, maybe you've got an actual trade in mind that would make it easy to believe someone would take 15 for 23 & 24. If so, then you're for sure correct. What trade do you have in mind?

[payitforward]

We need a player who can guard elite offensive scorers and at least make them work. Rui is simply not that guy.

I think Rui is that guy. He'll be a legit stopper in this league....

You've said this kind of thing about Rui several times. I would be really grateful if you'd explain why you think this -- & above all why you seem to be so extraordinarily confident about it. To a point approaching certainty.

Am I misreading you? If I'm not, then anything to support that projection would be most useful & welcome.

[wall_glizzy]

Well... you more or less repeated my proposal to trade with Houston. They will never do 15 for 23 & 24. If 15 & 2 would get them 1, so would 23, 24 & 2, so why trade?

But, as I say... remove/lighten the protections on our #23 r1 & maybe there's a deal there.

Because teams value higher picks. History has shown your valuation of 23 + 24 is way higher than NBA GMs. Probably because your valuation of an open roster spot is way lower than NBA GMs.

Hey, you may be right, but... it's not "my" valuation of 23 + 24. Thinking about this kind of trade, I use Kevin Pelton as my starting point (http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2). There's plenty of work behind his chart; he's not guessing, he's using research & analysis.

Of course, he could still be all wrong -- but... does it seem likely? Even if he's not all wrong, though, it's still not some kind of hard and fast rule -- how could it be? Plus, there would also have to be exceptions. Or other considerations -- e.g. Memphis took on Mario Hezonja's salary when they made that draft day trade for Desmond Bane.

But, maybe you've got an actual trade in mind that would make it easy to believe someone would take 15 for 23 & 24. If so, then you're for sure correct. What trade do you have in mind?

Off the top of my head, the Jazz traded #24 and Trey Lyles, who had been taken #12 two years prior, to get to #13 and take Donovan Mitchell. Lyles is a bum, as we now know, but at the time I don't think his first two seasons had totally tanked his value; certainly not to such an extent that the deal is totally incomparable to what we're talking about here. As you've said before, even these mid-lottery guys retain the sheen of "potential" for at least a couple seasons, virtually regardless of on-court performance.

Additionally, Portland traded #15 and #20 to select Zach Collins at #10. By the Pelton chart, that's trading 55.50 in pick value (31.00 + 24.50) for 43.00; a premium of a little over 25% to consolidate their picks. #23 and #24, by the same chart, would be 38.75 in value (20.00 + 18.75) for 31.00; a premium of exactly 25% (I think - I'm at the gym, so it's mental math).

I don't think the trade is particularly likely to come to pass (for us), but it's not entirely without precedent. Plus, there's the issue of multiple teams who can slightly outbid the Rockets in and 2-for-1 for any particular pick they'd like to trade up for, as I mentioned a few posts above. It's a pretty good climate, overall, for any team looking to trade out of the mid-late lottery or so. (On that note, I wonder if we see the Pelicans jump at the opportunity, what with the news that they may try to get off of Bledsoe and/or Adams this summer. Maybe Presti likes what he sees at #10, consolidating his picks and taking Adams back into... the Steven Adams trade exception in the bargain .)

[payitforward]

I think it depends on draft night if someone who was supposedly top 7-12 starts falling and is there at 15 then yeah someone absolutely could call and be like yo trade back and we might. It just depends on what's happening if not on falls and no one sees the value in it we gonna have to make the best of it.

But specifically, it has to be either NY or Houston that has such an epiphany. That reduces the odds considerably.

Why just NY or Houston?

E.g. OKC has the #18 & both the #34 & #36. They owe us a R2 pick in 2024. We could take the #18 plus the #36 in return for the #15 & that 2024 R2 pick they owe us.

There's always a way....

[dckingsfan]

I think it depends on draft night if someone who was supposedly top 7-12 starts falling and is there at 15 then yeah someone absolutely could call and be like yo trade back and we might. It just depends on what's happening if not on falls and no one sees the value in it we gonna have to make the best of it.

But specifically, it has to be either NY or Houston that has such an epiphany. That reduces the odds considerably.

Why just NY or Houston?

E.g. OKC has the #18 & both the #34 & #36. They owe us a R2 pick in 2024. We could take the #18 plus the #36 in return for the #15 & that 2024 R2 pick they owe us.

There's always a way....

Missed that one... any others??

[Dat2U]

Preferred a trade down 2 years ago. Preferred staying put last year and I prefer staying put this year although I don't completely rule a trade down out. I've cooled on the idea of trading down for 2nds. An additional first? That would interest me more. I'd still want a chance at either Cooper or Springer and settling the 3rd or 4th choice would be a little disappointing to me. Cooper strikes me as clear lottery pick. Springer late lottery. I also think there's a decent chance someone unexpected falls (like Haliburton did last yr - and Deni too).

[Dat2U]

Lots of solid players though. Even tho I'm not terribly high on Kispert or Duarte I do think both can have long solid NBA careers. Wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to draft either or even a guy like Garuba, just not my preference.

I guess I could be wrong about Moody. His game just reminds me of players who haven't translated despite NCAA success.

I'm in the middle of the road Kai Jones. You can project alot but that's all it is, projection. I don't have a great feel for him. Derrick Mckey-ish type upside is what I initially saw but I'm not so sure anymore.

[payitforward]

Because teams value higher picks. History has shown your valuation of 23 + 24 is way higher than NBA GMs. Probably because your valuation of an open roster spot is way lower than NBA GMs.

Hey, you may be right, but... it's not "my" valuation of 23 + 24. Thinking about this kind of trade, I use Kevin Pelton as my starting point (http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2). There's plenty of work behind his chart; he's not guessing, he's using research & analysis.

Of course, he could still be all wrong -- but... does it seem likely? Even if he's not all wrong, though, it's still not some kind of hard and fast rule -- how could it be? Plus, there would also have to be exceptions. Or other considerations -- e.g. Memphis took on Mario Hezonja's salary when they made that draft day trade for Desmond Bane.

But, maybe you've got an actual trade in mind that would make it easy to believe someone would take 15 for 23 & 24. If so, then you're for sure correct. What trade do you have in mind?

Off the top of my head, the Jazz traded #24 and Trey Lyles, who had been taken #12 two years prior, to get to #13 and take Donovan Mitchell. Lyles is a bum, as we now know, but at the time I don't think his first two seasons had totally tanked his value; certainly not to such an extent that the deal is totally incomparable to what we're talking about here. As you've said before, even these mid-lottery guys retain the sheen of "potential" for at least a couple seasons, virtually regardless of on-court performance.

Additionally, Portland traded #15 and #20 to select Zach Collins at #10. By the Pelton chart, that's trading 55.50 in pick value (31.00 + 24.50) for 43.00; a premium of a little over 25% to consolidate their picks. #23 and #24, by the same chart, would be 38.75 in value (20.00 + 18.75) for 31.00; a premium of exactly 25% (I think - I'm at the gym, so it's mental math).

I don't think the trade is particularly likely to come to pass (for us), but it's not entirely without precedent. ...

The Jazz trade isn't a particularly relevant data point, but it doesn't matter b/c the Portland trade does the trick. Even if an exception proves a rule, it's still an exception.

So, sure, it's true to say that trading the #15 for the #23 & 24 might be possible. TBH, I don't think it could happen really, but clearly it's possible. & would be great!

[payitforward]

Preferred a trade down 2 years ago. Preferred staying put last year and I prefer staying put this year although I don't completely rule a trade down out. I've cooled on the idea of trading down for 2nds. An additional first? That would interest me more. I'd still want a chance at either Cooper or Springer and settling the 3rd or 4th choice would be a little disappointing to me. Cooper strikes me as clear lottery pick. Springer late lottery. I also think there's a decent chance someone unexpected falls (like Haliburton did last yr - and Deni too).

Well, of course such a trade could be structured to either happen or not happen depending on who was on the board when #15 came around. I would guess that it's usually like that -- in one way or another there's a way out if a surprise drops a superior player to your pick.

Edit: by the way, this trade illustrates another point about the draft -- a far more significant point! Imagine if the Kings hadn't wanted to go for Portland's trade.

The Blazers would have been stuck taking any two of the following players: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White & Josh Hart. Instead they got Zach Collins.

[payitforward]

...I guess I could be wrong about Moody. His game just reminds me of players who haven't translated despite NCAA success....

I'd be interested to know the names of some of those guys who didn't translate from ncaa success to nba success. Not questioning you, obviously, just curious whom you have in mind....