Dat2U wrote:I don't understand the mismatch part. Is that solely based of having size at C or something else? I have not seen where a team imposes their will because of a big frontcourt. Its a skills based league and its usually skill wins out unless you got a freak like Embiid, Jokic or AD who all have a combination of both.
The recent league defensive rules re-emphasis has neutered the ability of outside shooters to create wild swings of probability with hot streaks. As of last year defenders have been emboldened to play close on the exterior, and also put a damper on the dribble drive attacks by whistling offensive players for forcing contact etc. The game is not being won with 3's and the free throw line.
The pendulum swings back towards interior scoring, and rebounding. Interior defenders are not being killed with fouls when perimeter attackers drive into their chest. The ability of exterior defenders to play closer to their man (without fear of giving up a foul on a 3pt shot) slows the action a hair longer for Bigs to recover when they do drive. In addition we see fewer 3 second calls from bigs on the interior.
This means higher percentage plays should tend to slide back to what they used to be: the big guys near the basket. League average blocks per game are up. Dunks again rise to the most efficient shot in the game.
https://runrepeat.com/82-stats-on-dunks-in-the-nba#PositionDistributionYes teams with skilled bigs find success, especially if they also have a 2nd Big who can hold down the paint on defense. You want to be able to go Big or go Skilled, but have the flexibility to do both.
East Standings:
Giannis + Lopez. Lopez is the ranged attacker on one end and the immobile interior defender on the other.
Horford + Robert Williams
Embiid + Tucker. Though Embiid is a force both inside and out. Tucker is pretty much solely dirty work.
Mobley + Jarret
Randle + Robinson
If you can force Giannis to be a jumpshooter. Or Tatum. Or even Embiid. You can blunt the best weapon of the top teams. I expect you will see it most pronounced in the postseason, where fouls get called less and less. The team that rebounds and dunks will have an advantage over teams that rely on 'skilled' shooting. As a corrollary I think teams with a true playmaking PG will once again have an edge, if they can get the ball to the interior to take advantage of the higher percentage plays. The era of the combo guard is not over, but is in decline.
We see these unicorns showing up, I'm skeptical they will win. IF they do, it looks to me like each of these finesse giants will need to have a dirty-work big who can play with them. Otherwise their health is endangered. One reason KP has picked up fewer minutes lost to injury in DC is because Wes has played him primarily away from the traffic underneath, where he can pick and choose when he attacks the lanes. We have had success with Gafford as our interior big, allowing KP to float above the FT line for most of his minutes.
Okay, sure, you think Edey is as immobile as Big Country. Maybe it's the games I've caught, but I've seen his lumbering-looking strides cover a ton of ground to cut off attack angles and keep in front of much quicker players. Lumbering or not his footwork, anticipation, stride length, and use of his size have helped him defend smalls even when I thought he was beat. What is more hopeful to me though has been the development of his game. I noticed him playing behind Trevion WIlliams then taking his starters minutes. And noticed him suddenly not picking up foul calls, while still defending every shot.
I'm not saying he will be a game-changing giant, singlehandedly revitalizing the position of the super-big. I am saying unless you have reliable interior size, you are going to struggle against the teams that sneakily have been growing their own Big front court. Tall ball is a real weapon. Our starters have been winning with it, until Gafford gets foul trouble and goes to the bench. Or our finesse Big stops hitting his shots. Then we give up the big leads we earned early in the game.
I think I'm seeing something, the same way I saw the small ball era coming from the offensive success of the Twan + Gil pairing. (Stretch forwards + combo guards. I just wanted a passing/defending Big with a jumper above the FT line to round out the trio). Dunks and rebounds will matter more than outside shots and fouls forced by attacking guards. Could be wrong, but it looks like we trend that way.
Unless of course if you have Stef Curry on your team. Because he is supernatural. Shrug.
