Official 2023 Wizards OFFSEASON Thread

[Dat2U]

Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.

Good player in the sense he can execute his role on the offensive end. However there's a big difference between being a good player and a good starting PG. That's the problem, its the fact he's starting. 20+ other starters at the position he lines up against are better. It's a battle we generally lose every night.

[FAH1223]

Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.

I didn’t say he wasn’t good. But ppa 137 is all star. Is that what he is?

That''s not All Star

What PPA scores mean (in most seasons — understanding that the levels can fluctuate from season to season and by position):

225+ — league Most Valuable Player candidate
175+ — typically All-NBA level
150+ — usually the minimum score for All-Star level
100 — average
75 — lower-end of the rotation (see below)
45 and below — replacement level

[dobrojim]

You’re gonna have to help me out here, PIF. Because when I look at the per 36 comparisons between KP and Sabonis it seems to me to be very close. Sabonis is better in assists, 2pt%, and rebs, while KP has the edge in FT attempts, FT%, 3pt %, TOs, steals, blocks, PFs, and pts.

Seems pretty close to me…some might even say KP has a solid advantage. Is that what you're saying as well?

BTW, I don't believe in using a team's W-L record as the ultimate barometer of an individual player's play or worth. Certainly a team's W-L record does not rest on the shoulders of any one player.

https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/

By PPA, it comes down this way

Sabonis - 160
KP - 146

Monte morris is a 137 so this ppa stuff has to get fixed

Your comment suggests that you might possibly overvalue high positive stats
and undervalue having low negative stats. Morris' positive value is considerably due
to what he doesn't do, turn the ball over. Imagine how much better the team would
be if Kuzma and Beal had better efficiency due to lower TOs and higher TS%.

Not suggesting PPA is a perfect stat but it does attempt to pay include measures
of the negative things players do that contribute to losing.

Morris' biggest weakness is in his relatively low defensive impact. But he
doesn't turn the ball over and he shoots okay.

[TGW]

Somewhat off-topic, but still on topic....with the news of Magic Johnson being a buying partner of the Commanders, is there anyway the Wizards could involve him as part of their braintrust in some capacity? If somehow Turd could leverage that new situation to bring in Johnson in basketball ops, that would be incredible for the city.

It would go beyond Turd's double bottom line...it would be a triple bottom line. The team would get better on the court, they would make a ton more money, and Magic has always been an awesome philantropist in the black community.

[payitforward]

Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.

I didn’t say he wasn’t good. But ppa 137 is all star. Is that what he is?

Fair enough -- & my apology for over-reacting! It's a conditioned reflex, given the amount of pointless criticism Morris has taken (on a team with far more deserving candidates to criticize!).

I don't know why Kev would use a designation like "all star" in this context.
Presumably there are 4 all star point guards in the league, a starter & a backup in each of the 2 conferences. Is Monte one of the top 4 pgs in the league? Nah!!

But, he's good all the same -- somewhere around the 25th best in the league.

For that matter, I'd put Jordan Goodwin at about the same level. & Delon Wright is better -- quite a lot better -- than either of those guys!

So, one difference between me & a lot of my fellow-pontificators on the Board is that I don't think we have a problem at point guard. We have problems galore -- but not especially at that position.

[payitforward]

Not really. Monte Morris is quite a good player.

In fact, I've started to think that Monte is a good litmus test: someone says Morris is bad it proves he doesn't have even a beginning understanding of basketball.

Good player in the sense he can execute his role on the offensive end. However there's a big difference between being a good player and a good starting PG. That's the problem, its the fact he's starting. 20+ other starters at the position he lines up against are better. It's a battle we generally lose every night.

This is a sensible comment. It's extremely hard to quantify defense -- or just say that it's much much easier to quantify offense.

But, by "good player"" I don't mean "can execute his role on the offensive end." I mean he puts up numbers that are well above average.

For example, I doubt he starts against "20+ other starters" who shoot as high a 3pt % as he does. Or 2pt %. Or FT%. Or who commit as few turnovers as he does. In fact, on the niumbers, I actually doubt that with Monte, starting PG is "a battle we generally lose every night."

But, that's a dispute not worth having -- for example, simply not bringing Kuzma back would be a far bigger improvement (& a far more cost-effective one) than replacing Monte Morris.

[DCZards]

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the play of Morris and Wright this season. I’ve defended their play (especially that of Morris) on numerous occasions. But you can count me among those who think the Zards need an upgrade at PG.

IMO, one of the most important skills that a PG needs is the ability to consistently create for themselves and teammates. Neither Monte nor Delon are very good at doing that.

I say keep Morris or Wright but draft (or sign or trade for) a PG with the ability to “bend defenses” as Nate likes to say.

[payitforward]

https://kevinbroom.com/ppa/

By PPA, it comes down this way

Sabonis - 160
KP - 146

Monte morris is a 137 so this ppa stuff has to get fixed

Your comment suggests that you might possibly overvalue high positive stats
and undervalue having low negative stats. Morris' positive value is considerably due
to what he doesn't do, turn the ball over. Imagine how much better the team would
be if Kuzma and Beal had better efficiency due to lower TOs and higher TS%.

Not suggesting PPA is a perfect stat but it does attempt to pay include measures
of the negative things players do that contribute to losing.

Morris' biggest weakness is in his relatively low defensive impact. But he
doesn't turn the ball over and he shoots okay.

On the money.
But, it's not so much that I overvalue high positive stats as that low negative stats are harder to quantify & individualize.

Overall point is that Monte is solid -- moreover (& this is critical in a league with a cap & lux tax), he's a hell of a bargain at $9+m a year.

Dollar for dollar, the best players on the Wiz roster are: Delon Wright, Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris, Jordan Goodwin, & Corey Kispert. This year, those 5 guys cost us @ $23.5m!

[payitforward]

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the play of Morris and Wright this season. I’ve defended their play (especially that of Morris) on numerous occasions. But you can count me among those who think the Zards need an upgrade at PG.

IMO, one of the most important skills that a PG needs is the ability to consistently create for themselves and teammates. Neither Monte nor Delon are very good at doing that.

I say keep Morris or Wright but draft (or sign or trade for) a PG with the ability to “bend defenses” as Nate likes to say.

Sure! In fact, forget position! Let's draft a guy who can bend defenses, then let's sign another guy who can, & then let's trade for a third!

That said, if there's a single position where we are badly in need of an upgrade, it's the 4. Or you can simply say "forward."

Kispert developed a lot this year in a really rewarding way. But, there's a legit question about the upper limit of his potential usage. Deni continues to be a question mark. Kuzma is a problem, & Gill is a trustworthy journeyman. Cooks looks like he has something to offer -- but that's based on 150 minutes.

Maybe we could sign & trade Kuzma for a top-tier PG, then trade Morris & Wright for a really good forward!

[FAH1223]

Somewhat off-topic, but still on topic....with the news of Magic Johnson being a buying partner of the Commanders, is there anyway the Wizards could involve him as part of their braintrust in some capacity? If somehow Turd could leverage that new situation to bring in Johnson in basketball ops, that would be incredible for the city.

It would go beyond Turd's double bottom line...it would be a triple bottom line. The team would get better on the court, they would make a ton more money, and Magic has always been an awesome philantropist in the black community.

Magic doesn't want to run basketball ops. He's too busy.

Plus, he loves tweeting about players. Remember, he got fined as the Lakers President for his tweets.

[payitforward]

Perhaps I'm wrong... but I'm somehow getting the faint sense of fantasies being renewed. "Yes, we went 35-47, but it was because of this, that & the other, which were out of our control or simply due to misfortune."

I don't mean I'm getting it from the F) -- it's no "faint sense" from that direction; it's marching orders.
I mean I feel like I might be getting it from our board.

Am I wrong? Hope so. Or, if I'm right, is there some kind of contingent among us who feel that this year's results were an anomaly? That this year's results don't reflect our good our players really are...?

That KP is so good, Beal is so good, Kuz is such a clutch scorer, etc. that really... we are a far better team than a 35-win season would make one think. So no one knows what next season will bring: we could be quite a bit better!

Are some of us of that opinion? Are you?

[AFM]

Perhaps I'm wrong... but I'm somehow getting the faint sense of fantasies being renewed. "Yes, we went 35-47, but it was because of this, that & the other, which were out of our control or simply due to misfortune."

I don't mean I'm getting it from the F) -- it's no "faint sense" from that direction; it's marching orders.
I mean I feel like I might be getting it from our board.

Am I wrong? Hope so. Or, if I'm right, is there some kind of contingent among us who feel that this year's results were an anomaly? That this year's results don't reflect our good our players really are...?

That KP is so good, Beal is so good, Kuz is such a clutch scorer, etc. that really... we are a far better team than a 35-win season would make one think. So no one knows what next season will bring: we could be quite a bit better!

Are some of us of that opinion? Are you?

Who are you talking about? I think we're all in agreement that we suck ass.

[payitforward]

Hope that's true, because... well b/c it's obviously true!

But I'm wondering whether there is, nonetheless, a contingent that thinks... "really, it's not all bad -- we're moving in the right direction."

[9 and 20]

I know nothing about hockey but I saw the Capitals fired their coach 5 minutes after a crappy season.

Somebody in the Leonsis gang clearly lit a fire under the butt of whoever runs the Capitals. Why can't they light the same fire under the butt of Sheppard?

[9 and 20]

Somewhat off-topic, but still on topic....with the news of Magic Johnson being a buying partner of the Commanders, is there anyway the Wizards could involve him as part of their braintrust in some capacity? If somehow Turd could leverage that new situation to bring in Johnson in basketball ops, that would be incredible for the city.

It would go beyond Turd's double bottom line...it would be a triple bottom line. The team would get better on the court, they would make a ton more money, and Magic has always been an awesome philantropist in the black community.

Magic doesn't want to run basketball ops. He's too busy.

Plus, he loves tweeting about players. Remember, he got fined as the Lakers President for his tweets.

Since we're talking about the Wiz, if this did happen, it would end up with Magic in uniform, out on the court. Mariah Carey would wear his jersey at the 2027 all star game half time show, and Kwame would start beefing again with everyone on twitter. So it would all be worth it, actually.

[FAH1223]

I know nothing about hockey but I saw the Capitals fired their coach 5 minutes after a crappy season.

Somebody in the Leonsis gang clearly lit a fire under the butt of whoever runs the Capitals. Why can't they light the same fire under the butt of Sheppard?

Nah not really. It’s the Leonsis SOP.

Peter Laviolette’s contract expires in June. This is like a Scott Brooks situation.

So Monumental won’t be paying two coaches concurrently!!

[WallToWall]

Perhaps I'm wrong... but I'm somehow getting the faint sense of fantasies being renewed. "Yes, we went 35-47, but it was because of this, that & the other, which were out of our control or simply due to misfortune."
<SNIP>
Are some of us of that opinion? Are you?

We're bad. As in not good.

[doclinkin]

It's all a secret tanking plan cooked up by genius Wes Jr, and the front office stat samurais. They know exactly how to lose multiple 20 point leads and thread the needle between pretending to try to win, and dancing out of that last play-in spot at the last second. They know the league likes to reward the teams that don't obviously tank. Wes is putting a system in place that can be carried out from the G-League on up. We have seen multiple Go-Go players get NBA contracts and play well after operating under the system all year. With a stretch Big at each level, from Makur to Jay Huff to the original Unicorn, we are laying the groundwork for the Wembanyama era. Look out league. Here comes DC.

[Jay81]

It's all a secret tanking plan cooked up by genius Wes Jr, and the front office stat samurais. They know exactly how to lose multiple 20 point leads and thread the needle between pretending to try to win, and dancing out of that last play-in spot at the last second. They know the league likes to reward the teams that don't obviously tank. Wes is putting a system in place that can be carried out from the G-League on up. We have seen multiple Go-Go players get NBA contracts and play well after operating under the system all year. With a stretch Big at each level, from Makur to Jay Huff to the original Unicorn, we are laying the groundwork for the Wembanyama era. Look out league. Here comes DC.

Can you imagine if we won the lottery? It would instantly change the franchise forever. We would have unlimited national TV games...sell out every game...become a free agent destination....Sheppard would win gm of the year...Ted would suddenly become a good owner. We would be the talk of basketball for years

Incredible that they can't see this when they win meaningless games down the stretch

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[The Consiglieri]

Dang, didn't know we have a highish 2nd round pick in the draft, three picks is too-many for this org, we already have a lot of young players...

You're joking, right?
We won 35 games. We don't have a lot of "talent" of any kind.

Fixed and I still stand by my comment that I don't see Tommy bringing in 3 more young players while in win-now mode, we shall see...

I think both takes are true:

#1) We have no talent (and I know this is hyperbole, but basically in this NBA, to be competitive, you need a couple of different versions of talent profiles, none of which we are even minutely close to having. Though I will give credit to the brass for stealing the Mavs blind for Porzingis. What we should do after having rehabilitated his value this past season is sign and trade him for future building assets but we're run by morons so we won't).

#2) Despite all that, it's exceptionally rare that NBA teams ever want to carry over 3 or 4 rookies into a season. Of course w/the G League now, you don't have to, so there's that, and you can draft and stash in Europe as well as we did with the since injured Nzosa.

But you aren't wrong, delusional front offices/teams like the wizards won't understand that 4 rookies is fine because your roster is ----, and whatever winning build your attempting is years away, they will continue in the delusion that they need to minimize how many rookies are on the roster for the vets to teach and mold into a 25-40 game winner.

I will say, if they move picks in round 2 for future assets I'll have no complaints. This team is going to continue on this deluded path for at least one more season so there's not a lot of value in losing 1 year of control of a rookie in what is 1000% guaranteed to be another lost season.