Official Trade Thread Part XLV

[nate33]

I'm just bored, playing around with the Trade Checker, and came up with this. I'm not sure I like it because it makes us more competitive in the short term and could ruin the tank, and it junks up our cap flexibility; but it also makes us younger and frees up some roster spots.

Washington trades: Wright, Shamet, Gallo, Muscala
Phoenix trades: Deandre Ayton

Ayton turns 25 this summer and he has #1 overall pick pedigree. He's a long, athletic and can defend, which seems to be the prototype that Will Dawkins likes. He was damn good in the playoffs two years ago, showing that he could stay on the floor even in crunch time. I think this could be a buy low opportunity on him.

On paper, this team makes a lot of sense and has a real identity as a young, athletic, defensive-minded group:

PG Jones/Poole
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Avdija/Coulibaly
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Ayton/Gafford

End of Bench: Davis, Rollins, PBJ, Cooks

Jones and Kuzma are the veterans on the roster at 27 and 28 respectively. Everyone else is 25 or younger. We have a solid 8-man core of Jones, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Avdija, Kuzma, Aayton and Gafford, with a few extra minutes available to give to Rollins, Davis and PBJ. My big concern is that by addressing our gaping hole at backup center, we might accidentally become a competent team capable of winning 35 games a season. It would take injuries to get us to the top of the lottery, and everyone in the rotation is very durable. On the other hand the talent level of the roster falls off a cliff after the 8th man, so we may just get killed by opposing 2nd units, ensuring plenty of losses.

Phoenix seems to be shopping Ayton. What I don't know is if they'd settle for this, which is essentially a salary dump (though Wright, Muscala and Shamet will help them some). I'm not sure if they've found anyone else that will take Ayton at his salary.

[mhd]

I'm just bored, playing around with the Trade Checker, and came up with this. I'm not sure I like it because it makes us more competitive in the short term and could ruin the tank, and it junks up our cap flexibility; but it also makes us younger and frees up some roster spots.

Washington trades: Wright, Shamet, Gallo, Muscala
Phoenix trades: Deandre Ayton

Ayton turns 25 this summer and he has #1 overall pick pedigree. He's a long, athletic and can defend, which seems to be the prototype that Will Dawkins likes. He was damn good in the playoffs two years ago, showing that he could stay on the floor even in crunch time. I think this could be a buy low opportunity on him.

On paper, this team makes a lot of sense and has a real identity as a young, athletic, defensive-minded group:

PG Jones/Poole
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Avdija/Coulibaly
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Ayton/Gafford

End of Bench: Davis, Rollins, PBJ, Cooks

Jones and Kuzma are the veterans on the roster at 27 and 28 respectively. Everyone else is 25 or younger. We have a solid 8-man core of Jones, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Avdija, Kuzma, Aayton and Gafford, with a few extra minutes available to give to Rollins, Davis and PBJ. My big concern is that by addressing our gaping hole at backup center, we might accidentally become a competent team capable of winning 35 games a season. It would take injuries to get us to the top of the lottery, and everyone in the rotation is very durable. On the other hand the talent level of the roster falls off a cliff after the 8th man, so we may just get killed by opposing 2nd units, ensuring plenty of losses.

Phoenix seems to be shopping Ayton. What I don't know is if they'd settle for this, which is essentially a salary dump (though Wright, Muscala and Shamet will help them some). I'm not sure if they've found anyone else that will take Ayton at his salary.

Don't think this trade is legal considering Shamet was traded from Phoenix. He can't be traded back/rejoined for 1 year (even if bought out by us).

[payitforward]

Didn't we just get Shamet from them?

...ooops, sorry.

[nate33]

I'm just bored, playing around with the Trade Checker, and came up with this. I'm not sure I like it because it makes us more competitive in the short term and could ruin the tank, and it junks up our cap flexibility; but it also makes us younger and frees up some roster spots.

Washington trades: Wright, Shamet, Gallo, Muscala
Phoenix trades: Deandre Ayton

Ayton turns 25 this summer and he has #1 overall pick pedigree. He's a long, athletic and can defend, which seems to be the prototype that Will Dawkins likes. He was damn good in the playoffs two years ago, showing that he could stay on the floor even in crunch time. I think this could be a buy low opportunity on him.

On paper, this team makes a lot of sense and has a real identity as a young, athletic, defensive-minded group:

PG Jones/Poole
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Avdija/Coulibaly
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Ayton/Gafford

End of Bench: Davis, Rollins, PBJ, Cooks

Jones and Kuzma are the veterans on the roster at 27 and 28 respectively. Everyone else is 25 or younger. We have a solid 8-man core of Jones, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Avdija, Kuzma, Aayton and Gafford, with a few extra minutes available to give to Rollins, Davis and PBJ. My big concern is that by addressing our gaping hole at backup center, we might accidentally become a competent team capable of winning 35 games a season. It would take injuries to get us to the top of the lottery, and everyone in the rotation is very durable. On the other hand the talent level of the roster falls off a cliff after the 8th man, so we may just get killed by opposing 2nd units, ensuring plenty of losses.

Phoenix seems to be shopping Ayton. What I don't know is if they'd settle for this, which is essentially a salary dump (though Wright, Muscala and Shamet will help them some). I'm not sure if they've found anyone else that will take Ayton at his salary.

Don't think this trade is legal considering Shamet was traded from Phoenix. He can't be traded back/rejoined for 1 year (even if bought out by us).

It will be legal on August 22nd.

[Rafael122]

I'm just bored, playing around with the Trade Checker, and came up with this. I'm not sure I like it because it makes us more competitive in the short term and could ruin the tank, and it junks up our cap flexibility; but it also makes us younger and frees up some roster spots.

Washington trades: Wright, Shamet, Gallo, Muscala
Phoenix trades: Deandre Ayton

Ayton turns 25 this summer and he has #1 overall pick pedigree. He's a long, athletic and can defend, which seems to be the prototype that Will Dawkins likes. He was damn good in the playoffs two years ago, showing that he could stay on the floor even in crunch time. I think this could be a buy low opportunity on him.

On paper, this team makes a lot of sense and has a real identity as a young, athletic, defensive-minded group:

PG Jones/Poole
SG Poole/Kispert
SF Avdija/Coulibaly
PF Kuzma/Avdija
C Ayton/Gafford

End of Bench: Davis, Rollins, PBJ, Cooks

Jones and Kuzma are the veterans on the roster at 27 and 28 respectively. Everyone else is 25 or younger. We have a solid 8-man core of Jones, Poole, Kispert, Coulibaly, Avdija, Kuzma, Aayton and Gafford, with a few extra minutes available to give to Rollins, Davis and PBJ. My big concern is that by addressing our gaping hole at backup center, we might accidentally become a competent team capable of winning 35 games a season. It would take injuries to get us to the top of the lottery, and everyone in the rotation is very durable. On the other hand the talent level of the roster falls off a cliff after the 8th man, so we may just get killed by opposing 2nd units, ensuring plenty of losses.

Phoenix seems to be shopping Ayton. What I don't know is if they'd settle for this, which is essentially a salary dump (though Wright, Muscala and Shamet will help them some). I'm not sure if they've found anyone else that will take Ayton at his salary.

I really like this, the only issue is it kills our cap flexibility moving forward.

[AFM]

I can’t help but think PHX could do better. Obviously I would do that deal.

[nate33]

I can’t help but think PHX could do better. Obviously I would do that deal.

Yeah, they surely want a better return, but I'm just not sure one is out there. Not many teams want to pay $30M for a starting center who isn't a top 20 guy like Jokic, Embiid, Davis, Sabonis or Bam.

I'm pretty sure they would do this deal if we included Gafford in place of Muscala. Given their cap situation, they would definitely be happy with a lower cost version of Ayton who does 90% of what he can do for 40% of the cost.

I don't think I'd do it with Gafford though. If nothing else, if we made the deal as I originally proposed, then Gafford could be moved somewhere else for a pick or something.

[doclinkin]

On the concept of a trade with Charlotte. When I think about it I wouldn't mind something that lands Nick Richards, even though there is duplication with Gafford. I'd be curious what we could get in trade or a multi-team deal that netted us Nick Richard plus something, even at the expense of shipping Gafford, or Gafford plus Wright.

Gaff has value, his numbers look comparable with Richards, though yes Richards is a year older. Still, if you look deeper, Richards plays slightly better in the pick and roll game, inasmuch as he racks a 12% And1 rate off of P&R action where Gafford only forced 5%. Likewise Richards has somewhat better screen assist numbers.

Just seems to me we could get significantly better value from a Gafford + Wright swap, if a 3rd team were involved and we essentially replaced Gaff with a duplicate who is somewhat less likely to shuffle his feet on a pick or screen. I like Gaff, he just hasn't developed much. Whereas Nick Richards has been steadily improving from year to year. Especially in rebounding and free throw %.

I'd rather that than JT Thor or whomever. Seems like we could do better than that by shipping Wright to a contending team. And for sure we could get more out of the swap for a trade built around Wright + Gafford. Not sure what the 3rd team would be and what they would pay for a productive Big inked on a long contract, but I'm open to ideas. Who needs a big and has other assets?

[Silvie Lysandra]

I can’t help but think PHX could do better. Obviously I would do that deal.

Yeah, they surely want a better return, but I'm just not sure one is out there. Not many teams want to pay $30M for a starting center who isn't a top 20 guy like Jokic, Embiid, Davis, Sabonis or Bam.

I'm pretty sure they would do this deal if we included Gafford in place of Muscala. Given their cap situation, they would definitely be happy with a lower cost version of Ayton who does 90% of what he can do for 40% of the cost.

I don't think I'd do it with Gafford though. If nothing else, if we made the deal as I originally proposed, then Gafford could be moved somewhere else for a pick or something.

I'd do it next year in a situation where we roll a lot of sixes in terms of player development. Poole becoming Bradley Beal with defense, Deni making a Markannen-sized leap (so average offensive player + elite defensive player), Bilal looking like he's likely to his his ceiling (even more so if he grows an inch or two), Kuzma becomes an efficient microwave guy off the bench, etc.

Basically it's the kind of move where you really tried to tank, but your player development went too well and you're actually too good to tank. Basically what happened with OKC last year.

[nate33]

I can’t help but think PHX could do better. Obviously I would do that deal.

Yeah, they surely want a better return, but I'm just not sure one is out there. Not many teams want to pay $30M for a starting center who isn't a top 20 guy like Jokic, Embiid, Davis, Sabonis or Bam.

I'm pretty sure they would do this deal if we included Gafford in place of Muscala. Given their cap situation, they would definitely be happy with a lower cost version of Ayton who does 90% of what he can do for 40% of the cost.

I don't think I'd do it with Gafford though. If nothing else, if we made the deal as I originally proposed, then Gafford could be moved somewhere else for a pick or something.

I'd do it next year in a situation where we roll a lot of sixes in terms of player development. Poole becoming Bradley Beal with defense, Deni making a Markannen-sized leap (so average offensive player + elite defensive player), Bilal looking like he's likely to his his ceiling (even more so if he grows an inch or two), Kuzma becomes an efficient microwave guy off the bench, etc.

Basically it's the kind of move where you really tried to tank, but your player development went too well and you're actually too good to tank. Basically what happened with OKC last year.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. We will actually have the cap room to just absorb all of Ayton's salary in a trade next summer.

Do nothing for now and tank for one more year to ensure a top 5 pick. Phoenix would get one year to go all in with their current lineup. And then, next summer, we rescue them from crippling luxtax payments by taking on Ayton's contract.

It's actually the same type of strategy we used to acquire Poole. Most teams who overpaid a young guy like Ayton or Poole would just wince a bit but live with some modest luxtax consequences for a few years (like Denver with MPJ). But teams like Phoenix and Golden State who are $40M over the luxtax limit and facing luxtax penalties of over $100M are sometimes willing to part with young talent to make the financial pain go away. Shedding Ayton next summer would save them almost $150M!

[Rafael122]

Yeah, they surely want a better return, but I'm just not sure one is out there. Not many teams want to pay $30M for a starting center who isn't a top 20 guy like Jokic, Embiid, Davis, Sabonis or Bam.

I'm pretty sure they would do this deal if we included Gafford in place of Muscala. Given their cap situation, they would definitely be happy with a lower cost version of Ayton who does 90% of what he can do for 40% of the cost.

I don't think I'd do it with Gafford though. If nothing else, if we made the deal as I originally proposed, then Gafford could be moved somewhere else for a pick or something.

I'd do it next year in a situation where we roll a lot of sixes in terms of player development. Poole becoming Bradley Beal with defense, Deni making a Markannen-sized leap (so average offensive player + elite defensive player), Bilal looking like he's likely to his his ceiling (even more so if he grows an inch or two), Kuzma becomes an efficient microwave guy off the bench, etc.

Basically it's the kind of move where you really tried to tank, but your player development went too well and you're actually too good to tank. Basically what happened with OKC last year.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. We will actually have the cap room to just absorb all of Ayton's salary in a trade next summer.

Do nothing for now and tank for one more year to ensure a top 5 pick. Phoenix would get one year to go all in with their current lineup. And then, next summer, we rescue them from crippling luxtax payments by taking on Ayton's contract.

It's actually the same type of strategy we used to acquire Poole. Most teams who overpaid a young guy like Ayton or Poole would just wince a bit but live with some modest luxtax consequences for a few years (like Denver with MPJ). But teams like Phoenix and Golden State who are $40M over the luxtax limit and facing luxtax penalties of over $100M are sometimes willing to part with young talent to make the financial pain go away. Shedding Ayton next summer would save them almost $150M!

Can we amend picks? Let's say we trade for Ayton next summer into our a cap space, but we tell Phoenix, "that '26 FRP is now ours, instead of it being a swap." Deal obviously cant be made until draft night I think but I wonder if teams can do that.

[nate33]

I'd do it next year in a situation where we roll a lot of sixes in terms of player development. Poole becoming Bradley Beal with defense, Deni making a Markannen-sized leap (so average offensive player + elite defensive player), Bilal looking like he's likely to his his ceiling (even more so if he grows an inch or two), Kuzma becomes an efficient microwave guy off the bench, etc.

Basically it's the kind of move where you really tried to tank, but your player development went too well and you're actually too good to tank. Basically what happened with OKC last year.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. We will actually have the cap room to just absorb all of Ayton's salary in a trade next summer.

Do nothing for now and tank for one more year to ensure a top 5 pick. Phoenix would get one year to go all in with their current lineup. And then, next summer, we rescue them from crippling luxtax payments by taking on Ayton's contract.

It's actually the same type of strategy we used to acquire Poole. Most teams who overpaid a young guy like Ayton or Poole would just wince a bit but live with some modest luxtax consequences for a few years (like Denver with MPJ). But teams like Phoenix and Golden State who are $40M over the luxtax limit and facing luxtax penalties of over $100M are sometimes willing to part with young talent to make the financial pain go away. Shedding Ayton next summer would save them almost $150M!

Can we amend picks? Let's say we trade for Ayton next summer into our a cap space, but we tell Phoenix, "that '26 FRP is now ours, instead of it being a swap." Deal obviously cant be made until draft night I think but I wonder if teams can do that.

That's not possible. The reason we got swaps from Phoenix rather than actual picks is that they owe their 2025, 2027 and 2029 picks to Brooklyn from the Durant trade. We already extracted everything we could from Phoenix in the Beal trade. They gave us all the 2RP's and all the swaps they had.

[NatP4]

No thanks, Nate. Ayton doesn't really move the needle much, and he doesn't fit the timeline of this rebuild. Takes away our flexibility to be able to trade those expiring contracts for bad contracts+assets.

We were able to add a protected 1st, 2027 2nd, and Rollins along with Poole. I would do the trade if Ayton was 22 years old.

Last thing we want to do is win 30-35 games, and be paying a core of Poole/Kuzma/Ayton 85 million for the next 3 years.

[nate33]

No thanks, Nate. Ayton doesn't really move the needle much, and he doesn't fit the timeline of this rebuild. Takes away our flexibility to be able to trade those expiring contracts for bad contracts+assets.

We were able to add a protected 1st, 2027 2nd, and Rollins along with Poole. I would do the trade if Ayton was 22 years old.

Last thing we want to do is win 30-35 games, and be paying a core of Poole/Kuzma/Ayton 85 million for the next 3 years.

Yeah, I like Chaos Revenant's idea of just waiting a year.

In a most optimistic scenario, we are way better than anticipated. We will probably still finish with a bottom 7 record, but maybe, by the end of the year, Coulibaly looks like a potential superstar, Avdija breaks out and emerges as a quality starter, and Poole's offense is real while his D is improved. If all that happens, then maybe it would make sense to add a 25-year-old Ayton (along with our 2024 draft pick) and go ahead and start trying to compete.

But the reality is, all of those things probably won't happen. Coulibaly might be good, but he won't be a prodigy who makes us better at age 19. Poole is probably still a disaster on defense. And Avdija only improves modestly in his shooting so that he is passable, but not actually good. In that scenario, we will be better off by tanking harder in 2024/25 and not adding Ayton.

[payitforward]

4 trades proposed on wiz of awes. I'll give each its own post, so they can be discussed individually.

1. Wizards receive: Bones Hyland, Nicolas Batum / Clippers receive: Tyus Jones
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/2/

[payitforward]

2. Ayton for Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, & Daniel Gafford
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/3/

[payitforward]

3. Tyus Jones for Markelle Fults
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/4/

[payitforward]

4. Corey Kispert & Delon Wright to Dallas for Olivier-Maxence Prosper & Tim Hardaway Jr.
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/5/

[nate33]

4 trades proposed on wiz of awes. I'll give each its own post, so they can be discussed individually.

1. Wizards receive: Bones Hyland, Nicolas Batum / Clippers receive: Tyus Jones
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/2/

Absolutely hideous. Hyland isn't any good. If you want to give away Jones because you're worried too much about him disrupting the tank, there are surely better offers than this.

[nate33]

2. Ayton for Delon Wright, Danilo Gallinari, & Daniel Gafford
https://wizofawes.com/2023/07/18/washington-wizards-four-trades-exciting-young-player/3/

I posted a similar trade a couple of days ago. Ultimately, Chaos Revenant made the convincing argument that there's no reason to pull the trigger on it now. Ayton will probably be available next summer for cap room if we want him. Better to see if we can get value out Wright in some other trade, and hang onto Gafford for the time being.