WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Wizards enter free agency without many tools.
They will be over the salary cap when they start talking to players at 6 p.m. on June 30. They will have a mid-level exception (the MLE is worth an estimated $9.2 million in 2019-20), meaning they can sign a player from another team for up to that salary, even though they don’t have the cap room to do so. They will also have the biannual exception, worth an estimated $3.6 million.
Though the Wizards will navigate the summer over the cap, they’re not in danger of reaching the luxury-tax line, still about $40 million short of it.
They can re-sign the free agents they want. They can bring in someone for the MLE. They can use their remaining trade exceptions to absorb a significant salary or two. And they don’t have to worry about the luxury-linked penalties for doing so.
But for today, we’re talking about their own guys. Here’s a look at Washington’s free agents and how interim GM Tommy Sheppard & Co. might approach each one’s upcoming free agency:
Tomas Satoransky
2018-19 salary: $3.1 million
Restricted free agent
The Wizards would like to get a deal done with Satoransky early. He’s whom they want as their starting point guard heading into next year — and don’t discount the fact that if they prolong negotiations with him, the process could become expensive.
With John Wall set to miss at least the vast majority of next season, Washington needs a point guard. It doesn’t view 19-year-old Troy Brown as a 1, especially not defensively. And with Wall out, it quite literally does not have a floor general on a fully guaranteed deal who could be active for an NBA game. That means playing hardball with Satoransky could make things really complicated really quick.
The Wizards have already tendered Satoransky his qualifying offer, meaning he’ll be restricted this summer. More specifically, he’ll be a second- or third-tier restricted free agent, the type that could meander into the later periods of NBA free agency, considering teams won’t want to tie up their cap space for 48 hours with a Satoransky offer sheet only to learn that the Wizards matched it and thus, will bring him back to D.C. If the Wizards wait for Satoransky to get an offer from someone else a couple of weeks into July, they could find trouble in a similar way to when Otto Porter signed a max offer sheet with the Nets a few years ago. Back then, the Wizards had no choice but to match based on the intuitive logic of having Otto Porter for any price was better than not having Otto Porter at all.
Satoransky, of course, wouldn’t be nearly as expensive as Porter. But if he wants, say, $40 million for four years (that’s a hypothetical, not reporting) and the Wizards decide to let him fish for a more significant offer, then he receives one, Washington has a problem. Plenty of point guards will be off the market by then, and the Wizards possibly wouldn’t be able to replace him with anyone of his caliber. They’d have to match, just because they’d need a starting point guard.
In that case, they might as well be proactive.
There will be a market for Satoransky, who can fit on most any roster and probably slides in best as a third guard who can maneuver between the point and wing. He can catch-and-shoot, pass well within the offense, guard point guards and defend off the ball.
Celtics guard Marcus Smart might be the superior player, but he received a four-year, $52 million deal last summer when the market for restricted free agents was desert dry. With more teams with cap space and more looking for guard help, this year should be more lucrative. Smart was one of those guys who took a few weeks to get his deal. If all goes to plan, the opposite will happen with Satoransky.
Other possible fits: Hornets, Mavericks, Pistons, Pacers, Suns
Thomas Bryant
2018-19 salary: $1.4 million
Restricted free agent
Think of Bryant’s range in the realm of $7 million to $10 million. If the Wizards offer something on the high end of that, there’s a good chance he ends up back in Washington. On the low end and a return is still plausible, depending on how he gets there.
Bryant would like to re-sign with the Wizards. And the Wizards are making him the top priority among their free-agent big men, according to sources. Remember, former president of basketball operations Ernie Grunfeld may not be present anymore, but this is still the same front office that plucked the 21-year-old off waivers last summer and developed him into one of the league’s better offensive centers.
Like with Satoransky, look for Bryant and Washington to try to get an agreement worked out sometime during the moratorium, which ends July 6, though doing so might be a tad more difficult with Bryant than with the point guard. The market for offensive-minded centers has bogged down over the past couple of years, and if the Wizards don’t make an offer that meets Bryant’s requirements off the bat, he’s the aforementioned type of restricted player who could linger weeks into free agency.
Complicating all of this is the fact that Bryant has Early Bird rights — which means, in simpler terms, that the Wizards are limited with the amount of money they can offer him, capped out at a four-year contract that would be worth an estimated $42.6 million. Now, it’s possible that it won’t matter. A bid so high appears ever so slightly above Bryant’s asking price of $10 million a year, and if the Wizards offer something close to it, there’s an excellent chance he’s signing it quickly.
The Wizards believe that Bryant, who led the NBA in restricted-area field-goal percentage this past season, will continue to progress on his weaknesses, namely his defense, because of a notorious work ethic just about anyone who’s ever managed him will mention. Someone with the Wizards recently commented that he works as hard as any player this person has ever dealt with. The Wizards, for the most part, believe that will show. Bryant won’t become an elite defender, but he can get better. And if he grows competent, Washington could have a true find, even on a contract that could pay him, more realistically, something like $24 million to $27 million over three years.
If the Wizards let Bryant field offers elsewhere, teams are looking for centers. The Kings will need someone to replace Willie Cauley-Stein, and though they have heaps of cap space to fill, Bryant could be an option down the list, given that his age fits their timeline and his style fits their fast-paced offense. The Pelicans will look for a center to place next to No. 1-overall pick Zion Williamson. Others out there could use a true 5.
But there are plenty of other centers on the market, too. And offense-centric centers are the third-down running backs of the NBA.
But the Wizards like Bryant. And Bryant likes the Wizards. That’s usually a good sign that something will get done.
Other possible fits: Celtics, Mavericks, Lakers, Pelicans, Magic, Kings
Bobby Portis
2018-19 salary: $2.5 million
Restricted free agent
Portis turned down a four-year extension that would have paid him eight figures annually back in the fall. He’s wanted an offer to come in at $16 million per, as the Chicago Tribune’s K.C. Johnson originally reported. Now, our own Tony Jones notes that the Wizards, who traded for Portis in the February deal that sent Otto Porter to the Bulls, aren’t expected to match a “huge” offer sheet for him this July. The news makes sense, though Portis could still get paid elsewhere.
The Wizards view the 24-year-old big man as somewhat redundant with Bryant’s skill set. And that means if Bryant is back, don’t expect them to dole out loads of dough for Portis, especially considering they think of 21-year-old 2019 first-round-pick Rui Hachimura as a 4. Hachimura doesn’t need to start right away, but they expect him to eventually. And they don’t need to commit bulky, long-term money to someone who would displace Hachimura’s potential starting spot a year or two down the line.
Coach Scott Brooks played Portis mostly at the 5, though he’d been a power forward most of his time in Chicago. And defensively, he didn’t take kindly to playing center, posting some of the worst rim-protection numbers of anyone who played significant minutes at the center position since Second Spectrum began tracking those numbers in 2013. (More info on that in here.)
But what Portis can do is shoot the 3-ball, about as well as any other big out there. And because of that, he can produce if he’s paired next to a rim-protector.
Most people around the league view him as the power forward he was in Chicago. A center such as Rudy Gobert could mask some of his defensive issues while his perimeter shooting complements Gobert’s inside game in Utah. Jazz big man Derrick Favors, by the way, has only a small guarantee for next season. Portis could fit next to other rim protectors, too.
But these are specific situations. If he doesn’t find the right circumstances — along with a little bit of luck — could he bet on himself signing a short-term deal with a cap-space team and heading back into free agency again in 2020 or 2021?
Other possible fits: Mavericks, Pacers, Knicks, Magic, Kings, Jazz
Jabari Parker
2018-19 salary: $20 million
Unrestricted free agent
The Wizards liked Parker in the role he played last season, but their evaluation of him is almost irrelevant. More importantly, did Parker enjoy playing it? And would he appreciate doing so for at least 82 more games?
Washington turned down Parker’s $20 million team option for 2019-20 (which it was never going to pick up), but it could still bring him back. And a return wouldn’t even have to be on a one-year deal. It would, however, take a commitment from Parker.
Brooks used Parker as a bench scorer and facilitator last season. If he remained in D.C., the team could use him for 28 minutes during games he’s going well. It could deploy him for half that time when he’s going up against a bad matchup.
Parker didn’t cause problems coming off the bench for the Wizards last season, but he also had to do it in a pinch after being traded with a couple of months remaining in the regular season. What if that was the plan for a full season? Being a reserve was an issue in Chicago. Would it become one elsewhere?
He has health concerns, considering he’s already undergone two major knee surgeries. He stayed on the court last season, but he also didn’t play — and thus, rested — for a significant chunk of the winter when he wasn’t getting any burn with the Bulls.
This past year was Parker’s “prove-it” season. During his couple of months with the Wizards, he showed something. He created as a fast-breaker. He scored around the rim. He exhibited some lift and speed. He turned the ball over like literally no one else in the NBA. He can possibly start for some teams, but those squads will be at the bottom of the standings. He might be able to find a deal with one of them, which could guarantee him minutes.
But if the Wizards provide a situation for him to be content or if he learned from his ousting in Chicago, there’s a chance D.C. could provide a basketball home for him.
If it does, don’t expect him to make any more than the mid-level, which the Wizards would not need to use to re-sign him. And his salary could certainly fall below that.
Other possible fits: Hornets, Cavaliers, Pistons, Heat, Knicks
Trevor Ariza
2018-19 salary: $15 million
Unrestricted free agent
The Wizards had an opportunity to deal Ariza and Jeff Green at this past February’s trade deadline and opted not to do so in favor of making an unlikely run at the postseason. Washington ended up losing 50 games and finishing far out of the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed.
It’s not like the Wizards would have gotten a ton of helpful pieces for either Ariza or Green, but they could have gotten something to help with their future. Justin Holiday, after all, was traded midseason for a couple of second-round picks. Ariza, himself, got traded from the Suns to the Wizards for Kelly Oubre and Austin Rivers. He indeed could have commanded something
Now, the Wizards might watch Ariza walk for nothing.
It’s not a guarantee that Ariza will head elsewhere, but it is more likely than not, given his preference of playing on the West Coast, a significant reason why he signed with Phoenix last year in spite of the team’s lack of talent. A return to the Western Conference appears a possibility for Ariza once again, though he won’t make the money he did last summer when he signed a one-year deal for $15 million.
Between an off shooting season, his defense taking a dip and aging another year, he’s not going to receive that salary. He might be more of a mid-level candidate, though he could always take less to go to a contender if winning is his priority over money. After all, Ariza is the type of player who is far more valuable on a competitive team than on an uncompetitive one.
Other possible fits: Warriors, Rockets, Clippers, Lakers
Jeff Green
2018-19 salary: $2.4 million
Unrestricted free agent
If you have to bet that either Green or Ariza is back with the Wizards next season, Green would be the better pick.
The DMV native seemed to genuinely enjoy playing close to home and where he went to college. He got along well with teammates. People inside the organization consistently speak highly of him. If Green wants to return on the cheap, the Wizards will have him. Of course, they can offer him only the cheap.
One of the confounding parts of not trading Green at this year’s deadline was that holding onto him does not give the Wizards much of a financial advantage in trying to re-sign him. Because he’s been with them for only one year, they can offer him just 120 percent of his 2018-19 salary. And because he was making the minimum this season, that means they can offer barely more than the minimum.
No matter where Green goes, though, that’s all he’ll receive. The 32-year-old would be at that point of his career — even if he did just put together his most efficient season, in spite of petering out over the final 20 or so games.
Green could head to a contender to help a winning squad. He could head to L.A. and team up once again with his good buddy, LeBron James, with whom he went to the 2018 Finals in Cleveland. He’d work as a bench player on other projected playoff teams, too.
Consider him someone whose free agency destination will take some time to figure out. He likely won’t sign with anyone until later in July.
Other possible fits: Warriors, Rockets, Heat, Bucks, Thunder
Sam Dekker and Chasson Randle
2018-19 salaries: $2.8 million, $869K
Unrestricted free agents
Though Dekker and Randle are both eligible to become restricted free agents, the Wizards are unlikely to extend them qualifying offers, meaning they’ll hit the market unrestricted. The logic is simple: Both guys’ qualifying offers are higher than their minimum salaries, and considering both will sign no better than minimum deals this summer, they would certainly take the more expensive qualifying offers were the Wizards to hand them out.
That means Dekker and Randle will be able to choose their destinations without the Wizards matching and bringing them back. But they also won’t have the robust markets either would prefer.
Washington actually could bring back Randle. The Wizards appreciate the way his personality would fit into the modified, hard-working culture they’re trying to build. Ideally, he’d return as a third-string, not second-string point guard, but there’s no way anyone will know his destiny for sure until late in free agency.
Both guys would be happy to take fully guaranteed deals. If they get those offers, that’s where they’ll be going. In all likelihood, neither will sign until later in the summer.
