The Official 2023 Draft Thread

[Jay81]

thoughts?
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-dereck-lively-lead-big-board-projecting-pro-careers/

[dobrojim]

Apologies if this has already been posted

YODA on this years draft class

https://www.bulletsforever.com/2023/6/16/23762624/the-yoda-guide-to-the-2023-nba-draft

quick summary (1-8)

VW
Scoot
The Thompson twins
Bilal
Miller
Hendricks
Whitmore

[NatP4]

thoughts?
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-dereck-lively-lead-big-board-projecting-pro-careers/

Comical.

[awolfinwater]

Hence "maximize your chance to hit an all star" is, strictly speaking, impossible: all you can do is try to take the best player(s) you can, & the low correlation of pick position to league performance from 4 down indicates how hard this is.

...
Nor is this a set of exceptions. This is the rule -- all I did was pick a few astonishingly egregious cases. The entire sequence of every single draft from 4 down offers the exact same simple & unavoidable lesson.

Nor should it be any kind of surprise. You do your best, but predicting the future, individual cases I mean, is not a high human skill. & anyway, the guy you pick is not a finished product, & the guy you didn't pick isn't one either. So it's no surprise if things don't turn out the way you'd like.

First off, thanks for the kind words. I've been a lurker for over 14 years and have learned a ton from the various posters over that time. The amount of true basketball knowledge present on this board is truly elite. I feel lucky to have a place to learn and reflect from watching just about every wizards game with the writings of this group.

Going back to the graphs I shared with a couple of different analyses, I'll just reiterate that I would rather have the #8 pick than the #30 pick. I think we can agree on that but the question I'm trying to answer is by how much. From the all-star analysis data I shared (30 years of data), 16% of picks between 7 - 12 became an all-star while only 7% of those picked between 24 - 30 became an all-star (I promise I didn't cherry pick). If becoming an all-star was your KPI for drafting, then you would consider a pick in the 7 - 12 range to be twice as valuable as those between 24 - 30. This is just the raw data and doesn't take into consideration the team that was drafting, injuries, and many other factors but there is definite correlation between becoming an all-star and where you were picked in the draft.

As you put also put it, picking the right player is really hard. The performance data in college does a really poor job of explaining the variance of their performance in the NBA. There are too many other factors beyond a box score to predict success. Here are some:

• Psychological makeup of the player: I believe teams have psych exams of some sort to find the next Jordan or Butler. I'm guessing this is what the old staff loved in Davis last year.
• Team competition: This is very interesting this year as we have players from g-league, Overtime Elite, and France. Each league has different strengths and weaknesses, making it difficult very difficult to compare players across leagues
• Anthropometric data: Certain teams weigh this more heavily to find the next Giannis. I wonder if I'm the only one that enjoyed reading WizardDynasty 1,000 word blocks on bow leggedness
• Team fit / culture: hard to quantify but we of course hear about Miami culture all the time and they are the best at finding players that maximize potential in their system
• Telematics / player tracking: I wish I had access to this data. Think about how quantifying the speed of Amen Thomas' first step to Cam Whitmore or how they compare to peak John Wall / DeAaron Fox. Teams should have info on the velocity and acceleration of each player in each situation. There is so much potential here and teams are pretty hush-hush on if/how they are using this info.
• Scouting (last on this list, but certainly not least): I'm admittedly terrible at this. I admire how the likes of CCJ on this board can predict a second round superstar in Kyle Lowry. Or how almost everyone on this board was ecstatic that we drafted Beal because MKGs jumper was unfixable. This is where I gain the most value from this board and hope Travis Schlenk can decipher signal from noise. I see highlights of Cam Whitmore and come away amazed by his explosive potential but fear that he forces everything left because he lacks versatility in his game and have no clue on how to project his ability to improve.

In conclusion, I think the data, in aggregate, does show a correlation between pick position and performance but there are so many other factors involved it is hard to nail down the exact value of each pick. Also, because of the numerous factors, a strong front office can make a big difference in success in drafting.

[gambitx777]

thoughts?
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-dereck-lively-lead-big-board-projecting-pro-careers/

Comical.

That mock draft looks like my mother did it after a wine drink Wednesday afternoon

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[Jay81]

thoughts?
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-dereck-lively-lead-big-board-projecting-pro-careers/

Comical.

That mock draft looks like my mother did it after a wine drink Wednesday afternoon

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I don’t think it’s a mock draft lol. It’s kind of a futuristic redraft 5 years from now type thing

[gambitx777]

Comical.

That mock draft looks like my mother did it after a wine drink Wednesday afternoon

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I don’t think it’s a mock draft lol. It’s kind of a futuristic redraft 5 years from now type thing

Ok then it looks like my mom did it after a few too many margaritas on taco Tuesday.

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[TGW]

I would go pure upside at 8, and that’s one of the twins or Coulabaly.

[gambitx777]

I would go pure upside at 8, and that’s one of the twins or Coulabaly.

I've been on the Bilal train for a while.

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[Rafael122]

Givony's got Whitmore dropping to 9 tomorrow in his next mock. Amen allegedly killed his workout with Houston, and Ausar shut down a workout with the Pacers. I'm guess it's Victor/Scoot/Miller/Amen/Walker/Ausar as the top 6. Only way I see one of the Thompson twins falling is if Walker AND Whitmore go in the top 6.

[mhd]

Givony's got Whitmore dropping to 9 tomorrow in his next mock. Amen allegedly killed his workout with Houston, and Ausar shut down a workout with the Pacers. I'm guess it's Victor/Scoot/Miller/Amen/Walker/Ausar as the top 6. Only way I see one of the Thompson twins falling is if Walker AND Whitmore go in the top 6.

But corporate lackey Chris Miller was so adamant and against tanking after that stupid Boston win

[NatP4]

I would go pure upside at 8, and that’s one of the twins or Coulabaly.

I've been on the Bilal train for a while.

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Hands down going Bilal at 8.

Starting to look at round 2 now. We should have #42, #52, and #57. Really like Jalen Pickett, Tristan Vukcevic, Hunter Tyson, Jamie Jacquez, Colin Castleton, Nadir Hifi, Markquis Nowell, Sidy Cissoko, and Azuolas Tubelis.

Right now I’m going Cissoko at 42, Vukcevic at 52, and Pickett at 57.

[closg00]

thoughts?
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2023-nba-mock-draft-victor-wembanyama-scoot-henderson-dereck-lively-lead-big-board-projecting-pro-careers/

Craziest mock I've seen, but some of it may not be so crazy. We are entering the Victor Wembanyama era, so teams have to plan for it, Lively going Top-10 is not a stretch, he could be right there in the discussion with Wembanyama in 3-4 years when they both fill-out.

[gambitx777]

I would go pure upside at 8, and that’s one of the twins or Coulabaly.

I've been on the Bilal train for a while.

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Hands down going Bilal at 8.

Starting to look at round 2 now. We should have #42, #52, and #57. Really like Jalen Pickett, Tristan Vukcevic, Hunter Tyson, Jamie Jacquez, Colin Castleton, Nadir Hifi, Markquis Nowell, Sidy Cissoko, and Azuolas Tubelis.

Right now I’m going Cissoko at 42, Vukcevic at 52, and Pickett at 57.

I need too take a second look at round two. Some of my picks pulled out of the draft for next year knowing it's a week draft and a stoeng performance might get them a first round grade.

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[Jay81]

Ben standig said he heard 3 names from his sources. Bilal,Kobe,Black. Not sure if they would even take CAM if he fell to them

[gambitx777]

Nadir Hifi- french kid 20 . Has put up good numbers in 30 some games this season. Looks really decent I'd take him with 57 all day over some of the older dime a dozen college Sr guys you can get as an UDFA.

Terquavion Smith and Emoni Bates look like boom or bust second round picks that could pay off but might just not have that it to propem their huge talent.

Some under 20 year olds that should be available after 40 that have talent and athletic ability but don't have the numbers.

Amari Bailey, Julian Phillips, Jordan Walsh Alex Fudge, Charles Bediako, Chris Livingston, Jazian Gortman.

All these guys should be available after 40
Do we go for youth and up side of do we go for 22-23 year old Sr?

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[80sballboy]

KOC keeps pushing Kobe Bufkin. I don't quite get the huge upside there but if there is no Thompson, I guess getting a Tyrese Maxey-type isn't the worst thing at No. 8.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

[FAH1223]

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[pcbothwel]

KOC keeps pushing Kobe Bufkin. I don't quite get the huge upside there but if there is no Thompson, I guess getting a Tyrese Maxey-type isn't the worst thing at No. 8.

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft

Terrible value. Maxey was a better athlete (build + first step) and while Bufkin looks solid, you cant take him in the top 10 as a rebuilding team.

We need to keep CP3 until the deadline, trade Morris, and draft Black. If Black can be Lonzo Ball with a Keldon Johnson body/frame... then you have the beginning of a core.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I would go pure upside at 8, and that’s one of the twins or Coulabaly.

I've been on the Bilal train for a while.

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Hands down going Bilal at 8.

Starting to look at round 2 now. We should have #42, #52, and #57. Really like Jalen Pickett, Tristan Vukcevic, Hunter Tyson, Jamie Jacquez, Colin Castleton, Nadir Hifi, Markquis Nowell, Sidy Cissoko, and Azuolas Tubelis.

Right now I’m going Cissoko at 42, Vukcevic at 52, and Pickett at 57.

I would LOVE that draft!! If we come away with Bilal and Cissoko I’ll be thrilled !!