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2012 NBA Draft - Part III

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The Consiglieri
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1441 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 3:12 pm

payitforward wrote:I notice that I have been promoted from ballboy to freshman. Perhaps this means I should be more "mature" in my posts. Or it means that I've attained something and can be even more ex cathedra. You can decide.

I'm with CCJ that nba scouts/gms *cannot* be good at drafting. If they were, the results wouldn't be so utterly random, and they wouldn't have passed on guys who were *obviously* terrific picks in the eyes of such as us (Blair, Leonard, Faried).

Will Barton had an *extraordinary* freshman year. It's true that he's old for a frosh, but there are guys who will be drafted above him who are his age or older and who did *substantially* less.

Ok... about to get on a plane!


The results are inconsistent in all sports for a very good reason, the jump from college, and high school, to the pros is much more substantial than a typical tier jump in sports development, like pop warner to high school, or high school to Juco. There is a massive chasm between college and the NBA, massive. How many guys are playing and producing in college hoops? How many actually become NBA starters?

If CCJ, or you, or me, were forced to create a draft board 50 to 100 deep, i very much doubt we'd look like brilliant, geniuses compared to the pros, I imagine we'd find ourselves right smack dab in the middle or lower. NBA scouts scout hundreds of players, us draftniks fixate on a handful, so we notice our successes far more often than our failures, and since we look at so few, we don't have nearly as much white noise to deal with either.

I don't think all NBA GM's are great either, some are just insiders that got their gigs, worked there way up and aren't actually very talented at anything save connections and not getting fired (think, the idiots at studio's that determine fall schedules, and whats funny and not in terms of comedy (kind of hilarious that they are responsible for all the hundreds upon hundreds of hideous comedies that saw an episode or 200 released, while they uniformally wanted to cancel production on Seinfeld, Cheers, Family Guy, and the Simpsons before it even started, the three best comedies of the 1980-2010 era)), but a great many of them are solid or very good at what they do. I think CCJ's pretty darn good at scouting the second tier of NBA prospects, at finding players that can make it at the NBA level for very little draft day cost, and there would or should be a place in the NBA for someone like him, or in drawing up metrics like YODA, but I also think that we all overrate our successes, underrate our failures, and overrate the failures and underrate the successes of the evaluators in the NBA.

There's a reason the baseball draft has historically been so damn hit and miss, ditto the NBA, particularly in recent years after high school players and freshmen were allowed, and the college game became murderously difficult to judge due to the changes in the testing environment, and ditto hockey which is traditionally a draft of 18 year olds.

This is freaking hard to do, and i think some egos around here (including my own) could use some popping. I also have to admit being a fan of a team notorious for being incompetent in team building and the draft (we got the gloss, Clippers East, for a reason) has given us reason to be pretty confident after watching disaster after disaster in draft days in the eighties and nineties, and horrendous decision making, always. I would agree that I think a few in here would have been much better at running out FO in the eighties and early nineties, but I also don't think that's necessairly saying much considering how moronic they were (Bogues, really?!?!?) :lol: .
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1442 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 3:34 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:Good stuff, Nivek. And I agree that Lamb shouldn't go ahead of Beal. I'm just looking for contingency plans in case Davis and Beal are off the board when we pick. I'd definitely prefer to trade down before taking Lamb. I don't want Lamb at #5, but at #10, maybe he starts making sense.

Maybe at #25. Can't see him as any better than that.

Underestimated: Denmon, Orlando Johnson, Terrence Ross, John Jenkins. I'm as capable of being wrong as the next guy, but I wouldn't be surprised if at least 2 of them, and maybe all 4 of them, had better NBA careers than Lamb.


Lamb is one of the players NBA scouts love because with his tools, and proper coaching, they believe they may be able to turn him into a much better player. It's also worth noting when you compare players across conferences you should also consider teammates, and the quality of opponents they played, the Big East is the Big East after all. I think the reason Lamb is so high is quite simply, he has the measurables to actually be an lite defender at the next level, if he wanted to be, and he has the athleticism and tools on the offensive end to be a star as well. The problem is, it never completely happened in college, so why believe it might at the next level? You can't be sure, but at the end of the day, NBA GMs' are far more likely to take a risk on Lamb's upside after the top 5-8 or so, rather than simply settle for a player whose ceiling is adequate or league average starter. You win titles by having a handful of elite players, not a collection of solid ones, and that's why Lamb gets the love he does, ditto PJ3. The possibility. The only issue is in risk management with a move like that, which makes our locking in a top 5 pick, likely top 4 pick overall so damn essential, it minimized the hell out of our risk, and maximized the potential. Trading down out of this scenario (as CCJ and others have mentioned), just doesn't make a lot of sense (the thought trading up out of our 2nd round pick to collect a falling high upside guy that all of us like makes a TON of sense (and it's very, very frustrating, that after collecting a ton of picks in lesser drafts, we only have one first rounder, with this draft that is chock full of fantastic value 6-24).
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1443 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 3:43 pm

fishercob wrote:Captain Sarcasm! Welcome to the boards. It's always great to have another smart Know-It-All in the group. You'll do fine here.

I was not AT ALL making the point that Harden was comparable to Knight and Kemba. I was merely saying rookies -- even good ones that turn out to be stars -- often don't do much from the outset. In fact, I made this point a couple of weeks ago in a discussion of Beal (we did, somehow, manage to have meaningful discussions before you signed on) -- that while his freshman numbers compared well with some great NBA shooting guards, we should expect his rookie impact to be marginal and for him to struggle at time.

As an aside, this rookie class was at a particular disadvantage due to the circumstances created by the lockout. That's not to say that I'm at all high on Knight or Walker (I'm not), but it's worth noting.


Cuban, definitely a metrics guy, argued that the math from this season would be useless because without a proper summer, training camp, and preseason, and with a massively compacted schedule, the design of the season would not be remotely replicatable for the future, and would not accurately predict anything about players, especially rookies. I agree with him, and with you (Knight and Walker, were both, basically, guys that would normally go in that 11-19 zone in a decent draft, but went higher in '11 because the draft was awful, both belong in the NBA, but its very hard to imagine either of them ever becoming good or great, league average or above average, maybe, but that's probably it).
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1444 » by DCZards » Fri May 18, 2012 3:50 pm

dobrojim wrote:
agree with Ruz

and to argue with what I just posted, I would prefer, IF POSSIBLE, to trade down for
multiple picks and take Zeller and someone else too,

edit to add - rather than Drummond @ 5

like Crowder. Drum at best figures
to sit a whole lot for 2-3 years, unless the injury bug rears its ugly head. He just doesn't
figure to play much with Nene, Keviiin and possibly even Dray still around. Unless you
are completely sold the guy will be a monster much sooner than the 2-3 years I'm
suggesting, it's wasting too much time when there are other fish to fry ie wing positions.


Drummond scares me. Like others have said, his physical abilities and potential are off the charts, but his track record at UConn (and apparently his effort and desire) has been miserable. Having said that, if there is any possibility that Drummond is going to "a monster" even 2-3 years from now, and Davis, Beal and MKG are off the board, the Zards absolutely HAVE to strongly consider drafting him.

I too expect Zeller and Crowder to have good NBA careers, but their ceiling is MUCH lower than Drummond's, IMO.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1445 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri May 18, 2012 5:01 pm

Nivek, is John Shurna one of the players YODA has rated? If Novak was a good prospect I believe Shurna is a better than good prospect.

In round two there are great talents. Machado is a great assist generator. Drew Gordon is as good a rebounder, likely, as Thomas Robinson. Reggie Hamilton is as good at scoring as there is in this draft. He had a horrible Portsmouth Invitational Tourney, but I would go by his year in college and not some setting where he felt compelled to be a playmaker. If being a pot head didn't keep Klay Thompson out of the NBA, I think Terrell Stoglin in round two brings a lot of scoring as well.

Round two has real talented players that I haven't even mentioned. I think GMs are going to snatch up big men in round one. Ezeli and Melo are players I think will go in round one. Draymond Green I expect will fall. We've talked a whole lot about Crowder, Denmon, and Crowder; but not enough about Kevin Jones. The Miami Heat could use him about now IMO. There's a player named Eric Griffen from Campbell who is a flyer in the mold of Jeremy Evans and James Singleton. Kevin Murphy could surprise and be as effective as a lot of players with talk about a lot, like Doron Lamb, who will go in round one.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1446 » by sfam » Fri May 18, 2012 5:19 pm

DCZards wrote:
dobrojim wrote:
agree with Ruz

and to argue with what I just posted, I would prefer, IF POSSIBLE, to trade down for
multiple picks and take Zeller and someone else too,

edit to add - rather than Drummond @ 5

like Crowder. Drum at best figures
to sit a whole lot for 2-3 years, unless the injury bug rears its ugly head. He just doesn't
figure to play much with Nene, Keviiin and possibly even Dray still around. Unless you
are completely sold the guy will be a monster much sooner than the 2-3 years I'm
suggesting, it's wasting too much time when there are other fish to fry ie wing positions.


Drummond scares me. Like others have said, his physical abilities and potential are off the charts, but his track record at UConn (and apparently his effort and desire) has been miserable. Having said that, if there is any possibility that Drummond is going to "a monster" even 2-3 years from now, and Davis, Beal and MKG are off the board, the Zards absolutely HAVE to strongly consider drafting him.

I too expect Zeller and Crowder to have good NBA careers, but their ceiling is MUCH lower than Drummond's, IMO.


Drummond definitely looks like a GM killer to me - perhaps that's the silver lining if EG picks him!

Seriously though, let someone else take the chance that he's a future ShaqFoo. I don't want any more Kwame Browns.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1447 » by barelyawake » Fri May 18, 2012 5:46 pm

CCJ, as others have said, you are amazing at picking out role players. If we were the Spurs, you are the first guy I would call. But, you keep thinking that the NBA is Moneyball. And I, and Dat, have always said that the NBA is part pro-wrestling. You need star players that are deemed star players by the refs, players and league. Otherwise, you don't get the breaks. You don't get the calls. You don't get the free agents. You go nowhere. We need a roster that people think OUGHT to win, so they will let us win. We need a superstar to pair with Wall. And we need to focus all of our attention on how to get one. Unless we get another star to pair with Wall soon, we'll be starting over again once his contract runs (or sooner). My two cents... Christ, I hope management gets the above...
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1448 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 6:15 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:

Consiglieri, I don't get paid for it but I know more than a lot of NBA scouts. I think they're wrong.

Would you rather have Chris Singleton or Kenneth Faried? Or Marshon Brooks? Would you rather have Jan Vesely or Kawhi Leonard? Would you rather have the rights to Rubio or Steph Curry; or would have you have rather acquired Mike Miller and Randy Foye and have nothing to show?

If drafting Drummond could enable the Wizards to offload Blatche (thus saving $ and preserving good chemistry), and acquire Zeller (who will be a very effective stretch 4 or 5 in the LaMarcus Aldridge mold), and get a future pick; that beats acquiring Drummond.

I keep hearing about how great Beal and MKG will be and I think they may not become any better than Will Barton because Barton has a winning background and some pretty unique skills.

Every year I get into a discussion about the scouts and what they think and how they know more than I do. Tell you what. Between Nivek, Dat, doc, and myself to be immodest; we can do just as well. Honestly, I truly believe I'm one of the best. Ed Weiland and the great YODA crunch numbers better, but I know what I know and I've been at this a while. It's not my first rodeo.

So, forgive my arrogance, but to a point I use all the mocks and go by what I feel. Using consensus and blending in with my gut gives me insight to all but the private information only physicals and extensive background checks, and private interviews don't tell. Just from being around, I bet I could REALLY be good at this with that information.

Bottom Line: MKG and Beal are 19 years old each. They may be great, great players one day. The same may be said next year, for guys like Shabazz Muhammed and Nerlens Noel. There may be someone like Doug McDermott available when the Wizards draft next season. He's going to be a very effective NBA player. I think some moves need to be strategic. I don't think MKGs offense is all that refined. I don't think Beal's size and strength will lead him to greatness for 3 years. OTOH, Barton is long and a slasher and he's going to be a better pro than imagined by most scouts IMO.


All do respect, I really don't think you do. If you had the assets, and the time, and the career, I really think you could be, but I definitely don't think you are. Paul Milsap (before my time), Faried (everyone here dug him once they researched a little, though you definitely deserve credit for digging him up first (does that mean i deserve credit for propping Luck in the summer of '09, and RG3 as a dark horse for the redskins in 2010?), you've had guys you looked at, and loved, you've dug through the players and found pet projects you really loved who turned out (and guys like Almond who didnt, I don't judge you for it, Almond's issues may be opportunity rather than talent, and besides, I loved Amobi Okoye, over Laron Landy (then again, I did correctly surmize that fellow DE, Jamal Anderson did not have the stuff to be a great DE at the next level, regardless of what scouts said)), but scouts, and cross checkers (thinking of baseball, and imagining that NBA teams aren't that different, i bet they have something similar to regional cross checkers etc), of gusy that run stuff like blesto or whatever in the NFL, these guys look at thousands of players, not just a pet few, or 10 or 20, like we do, or 40 or 50 like the more obsessive of us do. I think it's a different kind of thing to actually do it for a career, and I tend to think we forget our misses a lot more than our hits. What did we think of the 2000 draft. Did we sniff out that it was a giant pile of manure at the time, that nobody out of that draft (basically how in the hell did every basketball player born in 1978 or 1982 generally, suck?) was going to turn into something special, and very few would even turn into something adequate? Many knew it wasn't great, few knew it would be the worst just about in history.

I tend to doubt that you're right about measuring the value of what we can do. The only guy i really agree on is Drummond, though Im at a loss about Drummond, as he has a few of the most alarming defficiencies a player can have, he lacks a great motor, and doesn't seem to really love the game, and he doesnt seem to have a great BBIQ either. What's strange is that he works hard and produces defensively. That is something that is exceptionally rare for players, and almost never present in players with weak motors, and a lack of love for the game. He is confounding and I don't want him except that Im deeply intrigued by the fact that he has the highest potential of anyone in the draft other than Davis, but the problem, as you know, and everyone else does, is there is huge potential that he could not live up to the hype, and/or become such a colossal pain in the neck that his talent aint worth the trouble anyway.

However, as the recent article at SI mentioned, scouts think this draft is 4 guys deep, with a fifth wild card. I half agree with them, I also think a guy like PJ3 technically has the raw ability to be the star. I think there is no point whatsoever in dumping contracts with the pick, and getting solid role players. It gets us nowhere. There is no point in that. I would gladly trade our seconds, and pieces (I would gladly add a future #1) to move back into the top 10-15 to get another one of these players, i love the depth aspect in this draft, and next years draft could really suck (though there are a bunch of small forwards with some decent upside), but we have to come out of this draft with a piece that represents actual elite upside. That isn't represented in the guys you mentioned. Right now, this team probably has a 30+ win upside, add some role players, and maybe you get 38-44, but its still chum for the Heat, Pacers, and other 1-4 type seeds, and you no longer are in position to acquire an elite player from the draft. This draft features 1 guy with franchise changing talent, 2-3 guys with a possiblity of having it (MKG, Drummond, PJ3), another 2 guys with very good or better upside (Beal, and Robinson), and then that next tier. The next tier isn't good enough. We have a lot of role players, and solid guys already, we don't have many franchise changing players, period, we may not actually have ANY, if Wall doesn't turn out.

I respect your talent, and think you have a genuine eye for talent, but you've got a scouting mindset rather than a teambuilding one, which is why I'd hire you as a scout, but not a GM if I was an owner.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1449 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 6:48 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Dat2U wrote:CCJ, I have no idea why your unwilling to wait on Beal or MKG to develop. MKG & Beal are 18, not 19. And Barton while only being a soph is 3 years older than either. Barton should look like a more polished product. Zeller at 22 should look & play more mature and be able to grab rebounds that 18 or 19 yr old's can't get to.

Being the most NBA ready prospect doesn't mean your the best player 2 or 3 years down the road. And selling out (as your advocating by continuing to suggest we trade down for Zeller, Barton, et all) to get the most ready made NBA player doesn't do us a damn bit a good considering were a country mile from competing for anything and we still need elite talent.

So while it's a novel idea to suggest your genius and have a roster filled with productive, plucky & mature players who were overlooked at one time or another, it's not a formula for building a contender. I'm not suggesting Zeller & Barton (whom I like) won't be solid contributors on the next level. However, building the best 45 win team you could put together only ensures playoff misery one year after another, and to me it seems that's what your suggesting.

My feelings on both Beal and MKG certainly are NOT rational, Dat. I understand why you and everybody else disagrees. I could say my feelings are counterintuitive, but I will flat out say that what I am saying doesn't sound logical. I actually see your point.

To suggest that MKG and Beal both will become major stars is to project forward in a few ways. Beal didn't really shoot the college three with great proficiency. He shot as many threes as twos. His team was not among the most proficient defensive teams. He was a great rebounder for his size. He converted well in transition and from midrange. He was the best player on a pretty loaded Florida team. The leap with Beal is the assumption that his NBA three-point shot will be better. That has been the case with Kawhi Leonard. So, why not Beal? Billy Donovan compares him to Ray Allen.

Personally, I think Beal will come to the NBA and struggle mightily. He's not a great finisher. He's not a great jump shooter. He's not very quick or very long. He's a candidate to struggle IMO. I'm going out on a very long limb all by myself on this one, Dat.

In the case of MKG, what I see most of all is a tenacious player. He rebounds fiercely and he slashes and gets to the line at a high rate -- in the NCAAs. What Kidd-Gilchrist didn't do well was shoot the outside shot. He's not a shot blocker and he's about average on steals, but he did have Davis and Jones taking stats from him. My concern about MKG is that his offense won't be stellar and he won't initially be great--but I could be very wrong. He supposedly has a terrific will and a terrific work ethic. In 3 years, I guess he should be the best.

That said, I've seen guys like Nicolas Batum and Al Farouq Aminu take differing turns in development. Aminu's stats IIRC were similar to MKG's. I think it could take MKG a while and perhaps he won't become a superstar. I could be very wrong again.

When I think about grabbing more mature players, Dat, it is with chemistry in mind. There are already plenty young guys on the Wizards. What the Wizards lack are players who can execute on offense and who operate well in half court as well as in transition. They need mature, technically proficient players who are content to be great role players. They don't need great athletes who need to be taught how to play. I would get mature, ready players, while getting rid of Blatche and Crawford -- and probably trade Booker for a top-notch SF prospect or picks.

To me, next season the Wizards will be in the playoffs, but they need players who are ready now.


http://www.nba.com/news/features/david_ ... index.html

On Beal:

...""I'm not comparing him to Ray (Allen), but he's the best I've seen since Ray in terms of being able to catch and shoot," said an official from a Southeast Division team -- who, indeed, just compared the 6-foot-3 Beal to Allen, the NBA's all-time leader in 3-pointers....."He has a chance to be really good," said a Central Division personnel man. "Super high-character guy, too. He can do a lot more than he's shown. Works his tail off. Just all of the things you want. He's like the flavor of the month." Said a Northwest Division scout: "He's not tall, but he's big and thick and strong. He has a lot of poise to him. I think he has upside. He didn't have an elite shooting year, but it'll get better. His stroke is good. It's just a matter of taking more shots and making them."

"The one thing that hindered him was Boynton and Walker were chuckers," said a Southwest Division scout. "I saw him against Arizona and I wanted [Beal] to get (ticked): 'Why don't y'all pass the ball?' But he stayed in his lane. If [Beal] had played with a better point guard, he probably would have had better numbers."

"I like Beal," said a college coach whose team played Florida this past season, "but for some reason he didn't shoot the ball well. The shot looks good, though. I think he has a good feel for (the) game. Athletic, but didn't seem aggressive enough at times."

But in the NBA, Beal's size should be sufficient to play shooting guard. He is strong and physical, and was a very good rebounder for his position -- though one veteran scout cautions that Beal's board work at Florida (6.7 rpg) came, in part, because he was a de facto forward for the Gators playing with two small guards.

"I think he can guard people," the Northwest scout said. "He's really, really strong, very physical. I think he takes it personally. He wants to guard. And if you're going to play for Billy (Donovan) you have to have some of that in you...."

My deal with Beal is simple, his body of work pre-college was that he was an outstanding shooter, by and large all his numbers got # in the second half of the season, and I tend to view his down shooting #'s as an abberation and a product of a mismatch w/teammates at Florida. If his technique was off, if he had bad mechanics and a wack stroke, I'd be worried, basically if he was more like MKG, but he wasn't, hell his calling card was that he was the best shooter in the entire 2011 high school graduating class, so am I gonna put a rap on him that he has a weak jump shot or isn't a great 3 point shooter because he underwhelmed a bit in his freshmen year? Nope. Im not, im gonna chalk it up to acclimation, iffy teammates, and not the best situation, and i love what the scouts have to say. I really believe that at the next level Beal is gonna combine Barnes jump shooting, with a willingness to finish at the rim which will give us exactly what we need at the 2. He isn't really lacking for much of anything, and what he'd add to the team, great shooting, great 3, willingness to go inside, great BBIQ, leader, highly coachable, great motor, plays D, hits the boards, plays hard, fiery, is exactly what we could use at the 2 to replace Crawford.

MKG, it's pretty straight forward, I can't find anything anywhere that doesn't say that he is EXACTLY what creates a winning team. The write ups on him say that he was the captain of the early 8am weight room team, that he was the official leader of the team, that he was a player and man that took the team on his shoulders, and you know what? They freaking one it all. Basically a mostly freshmen team won it all and who was the leader? MKG. That is HUGE to me. A lot of people keep saying he's Gerald Wallace, but Ive never heard MKG's chief assets described as being like Wallace, that seems to be what scouts and GM's around the league say his floor is as a contributor, and that his intangibles, and personality are what you need. When your team leader is first in, and last out, as opposed to Vick, or McNabb or Iverson types who were last in and first out, you win titles. When you have a team that would have MKG as its leader, centers like Nene and Seraphin who play the game the right way, and work their tails off, 4's like Booker and Ves that are students of the game, and super high motor workers, and a PG whose been waiting for 3 years to have teammates that aren't knuckleheads?

I'm sorry but that lineup is 10,000x more valuable than one with barton, and a solid center/4 in Zeller who will get lost in the pile up of hard working not all star bigs in Seraphin, and Ves, and Nene.

It doesn't even take half a second to know what MKG would do for us. And if we had a brain (which admittedly Im not convinced we do), it would not be difficult to trade back into the first round and find one of the last of the great 2's that are available to start over Crawford (or worst case scenario, sign a FA 2).

What the scouts say about MKG:

"....But MKG is beloved by NBA scouts for a simple reason: he plays hard. His path to the pros is his relentlessness. Playing hard, as I'll say for the billionth time, is a skill.

"He's not overly vertical," said a Pacific Division executive of Kidd-Gilchrist, "but he plays the whole game. He plays all aspects of the game. He's a tough, tough minded kid."

That gives MKG the nod among every NBA personnel person I spoke with over Barnes. Teams both in and out of the lottery concurred that one thing a rebuilding team has to have is someone who'll challenge young teammates to play harder.

"As I study this thing more," said a GM whose team will not be in the lottery, "those players that are not energy guys, the Ray Allens of the world who are steady -- and I don't know who Barnes is going to be -- players like Gilchrist have more of an effect on your team, depending on who you are. Barnes is going to help the Celtics and the Heat, teams like that. Those kind of guys, bringing those guys to a young team, you have to deal with trying to find energy, trying to find what makes the guy go, trying to make the guy more aggressive ... when you have to try and get the guy going every freaking day, it's like another job."

No matter at which speed teams play, scouts say, Kidd-Gilchrist will be able to impact the game.

"You can't have enough guys who play like that," said a Pacific executive. "I know (shooting) is a concern. But we've thrown around in a lot of meetings examples of guys who developed their shot. Guys like him, they just find a way. When you play that hard, you just find a way. I'm not saying you don't play off of him for the jump shot. But it's like Gerald Wallace. He's not a great ballhandler, not a great shooter. (But) for a guy who plays that hard, there's a certain value because of the way it rubs off on other players.""...He's going to do everything he can to help the team, and he's already been yelled at and (cursed at) by Cal, so you know he can be coached," said an Atlantic executive.

and from SI:

http://www.cnnsi.com/2012/writers/sam_a ... index.html

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky, freshman small forward (6-7, 210): He was Robin to Davis' Batman at Kentucky, in large part because of his commitment to playing both ends of the floor (he was only fourth on the team in scoring at 11.9 points). It's unclear whether he can evolve into playing a lead role, but he has no shortage of casting calls because of his versatility and the leadership he showed during the Wildcats' championship run.

For all of the attention paid to Davis as Kentucky's top talent, Kidd-Gilchrist was regarded as the team's glue. Coach John Calipari routinely praised him for being the emotional leader, and Kidd-Gilchrist was the captain of the Wildcats' 8:30 a.m. workouts before scheduled practices.

It's hard to tell how good he can be offensively because of the deep surrounding talent at Kentucky, but he has been compared to New Jersey's Gerald Wallace in terms of his athleticism and attacking mentality. Kidd-Gilchrist had two of his best offensive games in the NCAA tournament, scoring 24 points on 7-of-15 shooting against Indiana in the Sweet 16 and 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting against Baylor in the Elite Eight.

He might have the best motor in the draft, and nothing makes scouts happier than a player who never stops. Kidd-Gilchrist is also a tenacious defender with a 6-10 wingspan. His inconsistent perimeter game is a concern, but his work ethic and approach have NBA teams drooling.

"He has all the intangibles," one assistant general manager said. "And he plays extremely hard."

Your boy Barton gets some interesting comments:

"...Barton brings out conflicting emotions in scouts.

"I'm a big Will Barton guy," said one. "I don't know if he's ready to be a two yet; he's probably going to have to be. But I love his effort."

"Not a fan," said another. "I think he should have stayed in school. Plays hard and with energy, but ... he's gonna play in the D League. He can't help a team right now...."

Said a third: "He's a tough one for me. He's athletic, but he's awfully thin."

Barton, the Conference USA Player of the Year, filled up the stat sheet for the Tigers, leading the conference in scoring (18.0) and finished fifth in steals, fourth in minutes played, seventh in rebounding and 11th in field goal percentage. His energy will be his route to the NBA.

"He was a very productive player," one scout said. "Real thin body. And yet, man, he rebounds. He's like a cobra, the way he springs into action around the ball. The basketball skills are not that bad, but they're not great. The main thing is high energy."

and from amick at SI:


Will Barton, Memphis, sophomore shooting guard (6-6, 175): If you're looking for a natural scorer with a high ceiling in his all-around game who plays hard, Barton may be your man. He averaged 18 points (on 50.9 percent shooting and 34.6 percent from three-point range), 8.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.4 steals for Memphis, which finished 26-9 and lost to Saint Louis in the second round of the NCAAs. His accuracy improved greatly from his freshman season, when he shot 42.8 percent overall and 26.5 percent from beyond the arc.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1450 » by Nivek » Fri May 18, 2012 6:49 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Nivek, is John Shurna one of the players YODA has rated? If Novak was a good prospect I believe Shurna is a better than good prospect.

In round two there are great talents. Machado is a great assist generator. Drew Gordon is as good a rebounder, likely, as Thomas Robinson. Reggie Hamilton is as good at scoring as there is in this draft. He had a horrible Portsmouth Invitational Tourney, but I would go by his year in college and not some setting where he felt compelled to be a playmaker. If being a pot head didn't keep Klay Thompson out of the NBA, I think Terrell Stoglin in round two brings a lot of scoring as well.

Round two has real talented players that I haven't even mentioned. I think GMs are going to snatch up big men in round one. Ezeli and Melo are players I think will go in round one. Draymond Green I expect will fall. We've talked a whole lot about Crowder, Denmon, and Crowder; but not enough about Kevin Jones. The Miami Heat could use him about now IMO. There's a player named Eric Griffen from Campbell who is a flyer in the mold of Jeremy Evans and James Singleton. Kevin Murphy could surprise and be as effective as a lot of players with talk about a lot, like Doron Lamb, who will go in round one.


You're making the rounds of YODA's late 1st/2nd round guys.

All comments and ratings are pending additional information, of course.

Shurna rates as a borderline 1st round pick. Mixed bag on the numbers. Good 3pt shooting, bad from 2pt range. Low rebounding, but good shot blocking.

Machado, Griffin, Gordon, Melo and Hamilton all rate as borderline 1st/early 2nd round picks.

Ezeli is interesting. His junior year, he rated as a borderline 1st round pick, but as a senior he has a "don't draft" rating.

Stoglin -- borderline 2nd rounder.

YODA has Kevin Jones with a mid-1st round grade in a group with guys like Kendall Marshall, Moultrie, Barnes, English and Ratliffe. Pending measurements, of course.

YODA doesn't like Kevin Murphy a bit. Bad efficiency and unimpressive stats against weaker competition. Average size. Below average agility measured at the draft camp he attended. He played well there, but his college career was not impressive.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1451 » by Nivek » Fri May 18, 2012 6:54 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:What's strange is that he works hard and produces defensively. That is something that is exceptionally rare for players, and almost never present in players with weak motors, and a lack of love for the game.


This actually describes Kwame Brown. Not saying Drummond is the next Kwame, because who knows? Just saying that this description of Drummond reminded me of Kwame.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1452 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 6:56 pm

closg00 wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
jimij wrote:CCJ - if you are looking for great role players then last years draft was definitely for you when we had the 6th pick. But as Dat has been pointing out on this board for years is "what is the goal"? Do we want to be a competent team or do we want to try and build a championship contender? If its the former then your strategy would certainly help us reach the playoffs next year or the year after. However, the only way to ever become an elite team is to have elite talent and drafting "great role players" when you have a top 4 pick is not acceptable.

Once you have a couple of really talented players then you need to fill in around them with the type of players you are good at finding but lets face it, as good as some of your favs have been relative to draft position (Blair, Milsap, Faried) I really don't see any of them as being more than the 3rd or 4th best players on a elite team and that's at best. They are the type of guys who can put you over the top but they don't get you to the stratosphere - you need true upper echelon guys for that and while Beal or MKG may flop they also may turn out to be top flight players and that's what we need to take a chance on more than anything.

Of course, we really just need to land Davis.....


Nobody thought of Faried as an elite talent outside of myself and a few others this time last season.

I will say again, Will Barton at NBA SG will be elite this time next season, IMO.

Trading down, improving chemistry by offloading negatives, acquiring future assets along with Barton (or Crowder) is the way I would proceed.


This article on Larry Bird could lend some support to the your draft philosophy/strategy. Bird re-built the Pacers with wisely chosen mid-lottery picks and trades. It isn't the easiest route to playoff success, but Bird had put the Pacers in a good position going-forward, w/o going into lux-tax.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/79383 ... utive-year


Weren't the pacers kind of trapped though? Not bad enough to be in range for elite players, not good enough to contend, and located in a place virtually no NBA free agents would ever go too. Bird's insanely good at everything basketball, heard a roll call of his awards the other day, and he essentially has won every single award that is possible in college and pro hoops basically. Unbelievable and they've done a largely outstanding job on draft day picking out the talents outside of elite range that can grow into good players and a good team, but his problem remains, he cannot build a great team. So the Pacers aren't going to win squat, even in a year where 3 of the top 4 teams in the east lose elite players to injury in the playoffs. So that's the problem with this style of build, but there's no question that to this point, Bird has been absolutely outstanding at maxing out the value of what was available to the pacers in buildable assets (cap money, free agents, tradeable contracts and of course draft picks).
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1453 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 6:58 pm

truwizfan4evr wrote:Would anyone be up set if Wizards was that team to pick Drummond at 2 if he impress at workouts?


I think the board would implode, a la '06-'09 drafts (and horrid draft day trade), but personally if we couldn't get Beal, MKG, or Davis, getting Drummond would be one of the 3 moves left that would be tolerable for me (Drummond, Robinson, or trade down). Id hate picking Barnes a hellvalot more. At least your aiming high with Drummond after all (But id much prefer trading down in that case).
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1454 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 7:04 pm

Dat2U wrote:
fishercob wrote:
Dat2U wrote:If were drafting at 4 or 5 and MKG & Beal are off the board, we'd be fools not to at least consider Drummond. Not saying he should definitely be the pick, but there is alwaya a need for a big man with elite physical tools and the ability to impact the game defensively. We certainly could use some length in the front court


I'd consider him. Then I'd look at how woeful he was this year despite his physical tools and I'd let someone else take the risk.


If people can make all sorts of excuses for Lamb about UConn's offense (and he's a guard), then wouldn't the same hold true for Drummond who was similarly productive, far more raw and a year younger?


And oh yeah, Drummond also joined up about a week before labor day, he missed the entire summer, spring, all manner of stuff, his season wasn anything but normal. The questions about him should all be about his mentality, not about his raw potential as a player. He has off the charts ceiling in terms of raw ability as a player, scouts don't toss around Bynum and Howard's name when they discuss anybody. I completely understand people's concerns with him, but lets not pretend he sucks or sucked last year. There was something seriously hinky about UConn as a whole last year, everybody underperformend. My only concerns about Drummond remain about his mental make up, if he had MKG or Davis or Beals mental makeup, he'd be going neck and neck with Davis for #1 overall.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1455 » by Ruzious » Fri May 18, 2012 7:06 pm

Kev, I don't know if you've already mentioned him before, but a PF from Bobby Dandridge's old school by the name of Kyle O'Quinn (probably not as Irish as the name sounds) seems interesting. He did very well at Portsmouth and measured in with impressive length. Any thoughts on him? http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Kyl ... 516/stats/
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1456 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri May 18, 2012 7:20 pm

Today is May 18, 2012. I am going to do something today that I have not done. I am going to praise Ernie Grunfed's last draft. Yes, his draft. Instead of being snarky, critical, condescending, unforgiving, I am going to say what I LIKE about each player Grunfeld drafted.

Jan Vesely: He is like a breath of fresh air on the court. Young guy thinks the game and plays with extreme energy and unselfishness. He is so long and so agile at his height. Jan is a good passer and I believe his teammates, Wall and Seraphin, particularly, enjoy being on the court with him. The thing I liked best about Vesely's rookie season is he stuck with it and finished the year playing his best basketball. He can add strength and improve his shooting stroke and be a very effective player. I still think he can play some SF because he can create matchup problems when his opponent is not a scoring SF.

Chris Singleton: Like Vesely, he finished the season playing by far his best basketball. Chris really did start to hit the open three. I felt like he went from being hard on himself or lacking confidence to becoming decisive. His defense improved at the end. I like his length at his position. I expect he is going to come back a better basketball player, especially if he improves his lateral movement to stay with the better NBA SFs.

Shelvin Mack: He started well and managed the PG position decently. Mack didn't force shots. Mack attacked the rim pretty well. Shelvin excelled in transition and did not turn the ball over. He did about as much as could be expected of him given his size and limited athleticism. Mack competes well and IMO outperforms his physical ability with his mindset. He's going to have to battle to keep the backup PG position, IMO, but Shelvin didn't disappoint me.

Ernie might not have picked this guy or the other, but I like something about each of the guys he picked, not just this draft but the past.

I love Booker's motor and intensity. I love Seraphin's hook, soft hands, strength, scoring efficiency, face up jumper, and his intelligence. He's got the fire to get MUCH better with some weight training and direction from Nene. Jordan Crawford has CONFIDENCE that quite frankly, I wish I had in myself. That dude has serious swagger. If he ever improves his shot selection and impulse to take the wrong shot at the wrong time, he's a keeper on anybody's team. Jordan is a scorer. (Okay, EG traded for JC, but I like that move a lot.)

Wall was the gift of a pick. I grew to like him this past season. He's humble. He impressed me more with his desire than any overnight improvement. He plays hard and really seems like a good kid. I expect him to succeed because he's an ultimate facilitator and his jump shot HAS TO get a lot better and it will from this past season. John is a fighter of a player in a good way.

What does this have to do with the draft: Whoever Grunfeld picks, even Drummond or Barnes, I am prepared to embrace positively and forward-thinking. Nobody above is a total bust at all. EG hasn't done poorly the past one and one-half years. Most of all, those are good, team players. Every single guy drafted (sorry JC) helps the team first most of the time. (Wall can force things, but I think it is the pressure/expectation of him as the #1 pick causing him to force it.)
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1457 » by Nivek » Fri May 18, 2012 7:22 pm

I have O'Quinn in YODA with a late 2nd round grade. His numbers look good, but they came against a very weak schedule. He has center length, but his agility/leaping numbers were below average for a PF (albeit fine for a center) at Portsmouth. He's a guy I'd be happy to see the Wizards sign as an undrafted free agent for their summer league team and for training camp.

His production and length are intriguing enough that I'd want to give him a shot against NBA competition to see what he could do. But I wouldn't invest more than a late 2nd round pick in getting him.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1458 » by The Consiglieri » Fri May 18, 2012 7:33 pm

Nivek wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:What's strange is that he works hard and produces defensively. That is something that is exceptionally rare for players, and almost never present in players with weak motors, and a lack of love for the game.


This actually describes Kwame Brown. Not saying Drummond is the next Kwame, because who knows? Just saying that this description of Drummond reminded me of Kwame.


Kwame is a mystery to me, and from interviews, to himself as well. A very strange player. And yep, the Drummond-Kwame analogy has been around quite a bit as the floor.
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1459 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri May 18, 2012 7:40 pm

barelyawake wrote:CCJ, as others have said, you are amazing at picking out role players. If we were the Spurs, you are the first guy I would call. But, you keep thinking that the NBA is Moneyball. And I, and Dat, have always said that the NBA is part pro-wrestling. You need star players that are deemed star players by the refs, players and league. Otherwise, you don't get the breaks. You don't get the calls. You don't get the free agents. You go nowhere. We need a roster that people think OUGHT to win, so they will let us win. We need a superstar to pair with Wall. And we need to focus all of our attention on how to get one. Unless we get another star to pair with Wall soon, we'll be starting over again once his contract runs (or sooner). My two cents... Christ, I hope management gets the above...


ba, (recalling some of our past, lively discussions) Please don't get mad at me man but the first thing I thought was are you aren't also filming adult movies? Your life sounds way exciting! I'm just trying to be a dad these days. I did meet this lady the other day ... I'm distracted. :lol:

Back to the NBA/pro-wrestling analogy, I like it and agree. You do need stars and breaks, generally. I think the Pistons with the Wallaces, Prince, Rip, and Chauncey that beat the Laker team was an exception to the rule. The Wizards are forming the same kind of team save for their dearth of outside shooting IMO. ba, I hear ya on the needing a superstar. I think Beal won't be a superstar for at least three years, if at all. MKG will take 2 or 3 years, too, before he's anything special to pair with Wall IMO.

You really do have me pegged on the Moneyball statement, ba. I think Danny Green and Batum with this roster gives it championship in 2-3 years talent; even if neither is a superstar. I like Mo Almond just because I always have. A guy him on the bench, along with Cartier and James Singleton, gives the Wizards spirited, decent player. I think Barton compares favorably with Tayshaun Prince, only he would play SG.

I think Wall IS the star, ba, for better or worse. I think Nene has star power but he lacks height. I think the same thing with Seraphin. Vesely is a guy people will want to see win in the future IMO. Listening to NBA League Pass games with opposing teams announces, Jan got a lot of praise.

Maybe, just maybe the Wizards add some proficient three point shooting and scoring at SF, they also add another tall C (If not Tyler Zeller, Fab Melo, or Festus Ezeli), and they get improvements from their young core to where in 3 years THEY ARE a championship-contending team, ba.

(Sorry about the adult movies leap my mind made if it offended, ba. It is NICE to hear from you and I am thankful you're alive and well.)
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Re: 2012 NBA Draft - Part III 

Post#1460 » by Nivek » Fri May 18, 2012 7:43 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
Nivek wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:What's strange is that he works hard and produces defensively. That is something that is exceptionally rare for players, and almost never present in players with weak motors, and a lack of love for the game.


This actually describes Kwame Brown. Not saying Drummond is the next Kwame, because who knows? Just saying that this description of Drummond reminded me of Kwame.


Kwame is a mystery to me, and from interviews, to himself as well. A very strange player. And yep, the Drummond-Kwame analogy has been around quite a bit as the floor.


I must have interviewed Kwame a dozen times; just talked/chit-chatted with him a couple dozen more. I really liked the guy. Nearly every time I talked to him, I thought he was "getting it" and about to turn the corner. I still sometimes wonder what would have happened if he hadn't broken his foot that summer.

He was coming off what has turned out to be the most productive year of his career, and Eddie Jordan was planning a major role for him in the offense. Eddie that year was talking about "core scorers" and his three were Arenas, Jamison and Kwame. Then Kwame broke his foot and Eddie audibilized to Hughes, who went out and had by far the best season of his career. Meanwhile, Kwame got fat and got his feelings hurt when everyone ignored him (which is what happens to hurt players in pro sports because the coaches and guys who aren't hurt don't have time to hold hands), and then quit on the team in the playoffs. And then he was in LA and the Wizards had Caron, and the rest is history.

But I can see that alternative history almost as clearly as I can see what really happened. In some alternate universe, Kwame didn't break his foot and exploded into an absolute monster -- a KG-like presence inside who anchored the Wizards deep into the playoffs for the next decade. 'Cause in that alternate universe, Arenas didn't blow out his knee or play guns in the locker room either. In that alternate universe, the Wizards would probably be prepping to trade up from 29 or 30 so they could take Jae Crowder in the mid-1st.

:D
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