Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

CCJ -- here you go...the players you mentioned with their YODA scores. Typically, it takes a score of 20+ to be the top pick in the draft. In most years a score of 0 hits right around the 30th player.

- CJ McCollum 3
- Jamaal Franklin -1
- Colton Iverson -1
- Zeke Marshall 3
- Nate Wolters 3
- DJ Stephens 4

EDIT: forgot about Roberson. Interesting player because his rating has decline each year. Here are Roberson's YODA scores by year:

- Freshman: 4
- Sophomore: 1
- Junior: -3

He's a good rebounder, but his offensive efficiency has fallen each year even as his possession usage has come down. He shoots much worse as a junior than he did as a freshman. His FT% is bad. His turnovers have risen, although his assists have not.

Roberson has had me perplexed, for sure, Nivek. I like great rebounders but he really is inept offensively.

Interesting that all the players above, except Franklin and Iverson, do rate greater than 0, which would make them 1st round-worthy. NOBODY is talking about Marshall but he rates as high as McCollum. I think he's a value big who could be selected in the 40s or 50s or not even drafted, yet he can make a team with a roster spot available. Wolters rates as high as McCollum. He is also a great value pick.

I've been saying McDermott is the most underrated player but I think maybe D. J. Stephens is. That guy is an absolute freak of a player. He's a monster on defense.

Year after year the Wizards don't follow my advice but what I would do is pretty simple. I would trade down by swapping to the mid teens to get McDermott. I would also draft Wolters and Marshall. I would have a tremendous draft. Wolters is a great facilitator and scorer. McDermott is a tremendous shooter, scorer, and defensive rebounder. He's a coach's son who will know offenses, defenses, and he'll be a good passer as a pro. Marshall is a geeky, smart, shot blocker with a developing offensive game.

With those three players added i would trade away three of Seraphin, Vesely, Booker, and Singleton. They had bad years and their futures will be brighter elsewhere.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Crap. I didn't know they were still playing.

I missed the Baylor game.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=330920239

Nice numbers by Pierre and Cory.

At least they have it so you can wait the replay.

I have Cory Jefferson as the most overlooked/underrated prospect in the draft (assuming he goes - which is probably a good bet) at this point. I think people are going to wake up about him when they do measurements and see he's at least 6'9 240 with good length and athleticism. His stats are already excellent. Even before last night's 8 of 11 FG's and 5 of 7 FT's performance, he had a TS% of 64 and eFG% of 61 - with a PER over 27. The only negative - a bit of a late bloomer as a 22 year old junior - but part of that was his physical growth - exemplified by the fact that he supposedly bulked up to 215 lbs this season and was 170 lbs as a frosh. Again, unless my eyes deceive me, he's much bigger than that now. Draftexpress has him as the last pick in the 1st round... of the 2014 draft. NBAdraft.net has him 53rd in 2013.

DJ Stephens might be the most interesting player in the draft - perhaps the next Tony Allen.

Stephens is so exciting and spectacular that I posted earlier I believe he is in the class of freakish humans like Pippen and Rodman. He's uber athletic. The guy affects games defensively and with spectacular dunks. His fragile knees and asthma could be concerns. His background should be scrutinized but he's reportedly a great kid. I wonder about sparse minutes and his explosion of productivity as a senior, but Stephen's game is a SURE THING. He's a great talent.

Stephens
Wolters
McDermott
McCollum
Marshall
Dieng

These are all guys I'm focused on as being very talented players who I want on the Wizards.

Len is a player who I've bumped up into the very acceptable range. At his size and with his youth he still might beast, but it will be a while and his impact will be defensive and at times spotty and other times near spectacular.

[fishercob]

Can people break down why they would choose Len over Olynyk?

Olynyk is better in every category other than blocked shots. Significantly better assist man/high post player, ridiculously high TS%, accounts from players/scouts/staff don't question effort/heart (somewhat the opposite with Len), I'm having a very difficult time seeing how Len is the better prospect. Better defensive percentage despite playing with less athletic players. Good feet on PNR defense.

I mean, Len is big and fast, how many times has this organization made the mistake of going for athleticism over heart/IQ/skill.

Age difference and potential. Bigs need to be excellent defenders on contending teams. Much greater liklihood Len grows into an excellent defender than Olynyk.

I like Olynyk's offensive skill set a lot, but I prefer Len.

Also level of competition, defense, and Olynyk's performance in prior years.

Gonzaga played nobody, and lost to the 2 ranked teams they did play. Same way stats from the Mountain West conference always look suspicious to me, the Zags have had a cakewalk piling up numbers knocking over empty beer bottles. Small conference bigs who face no NBA caliber size often tend to rack up numbers, but the only stat that seems to consistently translate there is rebounding (defensive rebounding especially) -- an area where KO's production is anemic.

Olynyk is not bad, but my best read is he's not as good as his numbers suggest. Compare his sophomore year with Len's and the numbers are pretty much a wash, but with Len playing in one of the top conferences in the NCAA, and landing first team all-ACC defensive honors on a squad that defensively is highly ranked.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basket ... d-goal-pct

I've seen Len generally get good position and hold his own on defense, not get shoved off his stance, make good positional reads. Yes he gets by on being tall and athletic and won't be such a swat machine at the next level, but in general his defense is in advance of his offense. He'll get hit with fouls early and often like most rooks, he'll still pan out as pretty good. Yes we may take a little while to develop him, but if that holds down his re-sign price I have no problem, he'd be backing up Meka/Nene while he grows into himself anyway.

I do think however he'll look a lot better with JWall feeding him than he does with the Terps. He won't be relied on to carry team offense, but can contribute, like say the more skilled version of last years late season Jan Vesely

Eh, I won't cry if Len's the pick.

Good points, doc. The next Gonzaga player to make an impact in the NBA will be the first since John Stockton. And I think GM's can look at Nik Vucevic for a recent comp of an international big who did well in a power conference and feel pretty comfortable with Len. For all these reason I don't think Len will end up being there beyond 6 or 7.

We've had some accomplished international scouts in these parts in past years; i miss them. There are some intriguing international players in this draft pool -- Nogueira, Saric, Gobert. I've never heard of Keresay and Adetokunbo who project to late first-early second. There's a lot of stupid anti-international sentiment here b/c of the Vesely/Pech failures and passing on Crowder/Barton. Should we have stopped drafting black players after Kwame, Jarvis Hayes, etc? There are just too many good international players in the NBA to discount "them" with any kind of broad brush. I just hope (and doubt) that our FO has refined our scouting methodologies.

[Ruzious]

I haven't seen much of Len, but does he compare to Valanciunas? I've read that comp and they at least looks like they have similar builds and style of play.

I agree they are similar in physical attributes and style of play. But Jonny V was way ahead in fundamentals at the same age. He was already a top rebounder with a high FG% and 80+ FT % playing against grown men in a Euro league when he was younger than Len is now. Len needs a lot of work. I'm not feeling the Wiz as a team good at developing young bigs. Even with Okafor and Nene here, Seraphin, Vesely, and Booker have shown no improvement this season. Otoh, in a few years, he might be good.

[hands11]

I haven't seen much of Len, but does he compare to Valanciunas? I've read that comp and they at least looks like they have similar builds and style of play.

I agree they are similar in physical attributes and style of play. But Jonny V was way ahead in fundamentals at the same age. He was already a top rebounder with a high FG% and 80+ FT % playing against grown men in a Euro league when he was younger than Len is now. Len needs a lot of work. I'm not feeling the Wiz as a team good at developing young bigs. Even with Okafor and Nene here, Seraphin, Vesely, and Booker have shown no improvement this season. Otoh, in a few years, he might be good.

Ruz

I'm not sold that they can't develop player... even bigs.

Here is what I'm getting at. The way the team had been designed in the past, Dray, McGee, Nick, etc. Lets look at that phase. Was it the Wizards who couldn't develop them or was it just the players inability to develop and grow up. I just read that article on McGee and the dude is totally ADD and a fool. Nick was also mentally challenged. And Dray was a tittie bar fool. And all of these player existed on a team that had the Critter the killer and Gil the talented goof. There was lots of talent there. But very little common sense or solid grounded personalities.

And even given who those players were, there was some development with them. The more talented ones developed the most. Gil developed his offense. He just never developed any D or quality leadership skills.

So they went for a culture change and talent upgrade. They got ride of all those players and got a defensive coach.

Now you see defense. Wall is developing. Beal is also developing. I actually see development in Kevin S, its just that he had a really long way to go from where he started. I would say Temple has developed nicely.

Looks to me like the more talented players that were more focused, developed the most. Vesely's lack of development is on him. You can see that in the fact he has gotten even worse at FT shooting. Thats on him. If he can't even do that, that is the canary in the coal mine.

This is where I would criticize EG the most. He would over weigh the physical attributes of a player vs their mental make up. Beal would be the crowning jewel of the new group and Wall not far behind. Both are mentally made up far different then any of McGee, Dray, Nick or Gil who I consider all to be talented fools.

So while talent and physical attributes are really important, personality and mental make up are also very important. EG had failed at bringing in young players with the later. He had done ok with vets like CB and AJ but AJ couldn't play any D.

I said it at the time, CB was the one that was the most complete basketball player of that group. I would have traded Gil and AJ and retooled around CB and Haywood. They could have gotten a lot of assets for Gil at the time and AJ had a great expiring contract so they should have been able to get something nice for him as well. And had they just drafted Curry, you would have had Curry, CB and Haywood plays tons of assets from Gil and AJ. It would have been totally different.

Anyway, back to the point. I think if they add the right kinds of player, they will develop. I see Len as someone that will develop. So will VO and Otto. Berke will also be fine. I have my concerns about how quickly Bennett develops. I think his bad habits are going to be a little more challenging to break i.e defense.

I think players like McLemore and Muhammad will mostly just be who they already are. It will just be a matter of can they do it in the NBA.

[TGW]

I'm coming around on Len. I don't like the way he disappears in games, and I think he's going to get tossed around by more physical players...but he has all the tools to become a decent player. He needs seasoning though...I don't think he'll be ready to contribute day one. He's a project, and like Ruzious said, the Wizards don't do very well when it comes to developing big men.

[Nivek]

This season, Maryland's strength of schedule ranked 79th out of the 347 division 1 basketball schools. Gonzaga's strength of schedule was 98th. The difference between 79th and 98th is very small. Gonzaga (and Olynyk) dominated its schedule; Maryland (and Len) didn't.

Len could well turn out to be the better pro. He's younger, looks like a decent athlete, and was better than Olynyk as a sophomore.

For Olynyk, here are C types with similar ratings:

- Junior: Okafor, Mutombo, Cole Aldrich
- Sophomore: Chris Kaman, Chris Mihm, Brad Miller, Robert Sacre, Greg Stiemsma, Tyler Zeller
- Freshman: Alex Len, Larry Sanders, Robert Sacre, Joel Przybilla, Vernon Macklin

For Len:

- Sophomore: Olowokandi, Thabeet, Withey, Fab Melo, Deing, Patric Young, Dalembert, Javale McGee
- Freshman: see Olynyk's list

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If you are on the fence about Olynyk, I think positive intangibles are that he is extremely intelligent, that he developed as a PG, and that he is the son of a basketball coach. He already has an accounting degree and is an Academic All America and is pursuing his MBA. Nivek listed Olynyk with a similar junior rating to Okafor's. Like Okafor, Olynyk has a big brain. Because he played PG all the way through secondary school, he's obviously got moves with the ball on offense that few big men have. He understands all kinds of ways to get his shot off and he will make the right defensive rotations. He has the highest of basketball IQs. There is a ton to like about Kelly Olynyk's upside.

As for Alex Len, the more I watched Maryland's crappy guards and their crappy offense the more I see why Len could not dominate on that team. Alex's strongest attributes are that he grew up doing gymnastics. Another big man who did gymnastics before basketball is David Robinson. Len has outstanding body control for a man his size. Also, Alex appears to be a fine face up shooter from 10-12 feet. He has great potential as a stretch big man and he can also become a great defender. He has great size, very good athleticism, and potentially much better tools to develop on offense.

If I were picking around 9th, and I had to choose between Len and Olynyk, I would pick McDermott.

No, I would ask Len a lot of questions and also ask Olynyk about his suspension. I'd check for PEDs or anything else in character or background to disqualify either guy. I would probably choose the one who most wanted to be a Wizard. If they still rated a tie, I would choose Olynyk because he's a bit more aggressive.

I would then worry because Len has upside that could make him considerably better than Olynyk. I would love to have both together. Alex is 5 but Olynyk is more of a 4/5.

[Nivek]

The talk about Len's crappy guard teammates reminds me of similar talk about Andre Drummond last year. Drummond is having a pretty good rookie year.

[WizarDynasty]

Never draft a big with poor lateral acceleration, poor lower body strength, bad hands, standing reach below 9'2, if he has poor footwork and can't move his feet in space, don't draft him. the things i mentioned are things you can't teach.
Everything on top of these attributes is icing on the cake.

[Ruzious]

Hands, if you really want a talented big who's a long way away, don't forget about Stephen Adams - the Pittsburg 7' 250 lb frosh who announceds he's going pro. He might get picked ahead of Dieng and Withey. I saw part of 2 Pitt games, and he virtually disappeard in both, but he's a very good raw talent with decent per 40 minutes stats - probably the most physically imposing of the centers.

[Ruzious]

And of course, Mitch McGary has made enormous strides in the NCAA tournament - particularly with the big game against Withey. If he comes out, he's another big who could go in the top 20. Despite his slow start this season, I think he's further developed and more ready to compete than Len and Adams. I remember he was Maryland's number 1 recruiting target a couple years ago. They almost had him and Len.

[Halcyon]

The talk about Len's crappy guard teammates reminds me of similar talk about Andre Drummond last year. Drummond is having a pretty good rookie year.

I know this would be a lot of work, I would be very interested to see how much of the crappy teammate syndrome affects bigmen. Like a rating comparison of bigmen with great teammates (like the Florida bigmen with Horford and Noah) vs not so good ones (Drummond and possibly Len). I really do feel like their pure production is hurt when they have ballhoggers + terrible passers on the team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Never draft a big with poor lateral acceleration, poor lower body strength, bad hands, standing reach below 9'2, if he has poor footwork and can't move his feet in space, don't draft him. the things i mentioned are things you can't teach.
Everything on top of these attributes is icing on the cake.

I'm starting to learn more about your favorite big man, Steven Adams, WD. He's a better shot blocker than Len. Rebounds as well. Has a bigger body. However, he's a lot worse FT shooter and more of a project on offense. I get the sense he may not be real committed to becoming excellent and is just a guy who's big and who wants money for his family. Is Adams driven to be very good?

Like I said, WD, I don't know. I didn't catch any Pittsburg games and I'm coming from very little knowledge of his game.

[Severn Hoos]

Tight race with the T-wolves, Raptors, and Kings - pretty sure we'll finish somewhere between 7-11, with the outside numbers less likely (Philly/Sacramento), leaving us in the 8-10 range.

I'm still on board for the Ilyasova trade. Maybe they'd bite if Zeller is still available when we pick? Would they want to see Zeller next to Sanders? Seems like a nice fit, although if it were me, I'd still prefer Ersan (hence the motivation for the trade from this side). Would Burke or Oladipo be of interest to the Bucks?

The good news is TOR & MIN play each other next - guaranteed that one of them will win - and MIN still has home games against TOR, DET, and PHX. Hopefully they get enough wins to finish ahead of us. SAC will be tough to catch, and unless TOR goes on some sort of hot streak, we're probably looking at #9.

But - if Len & Burke keep moving up the boards, with guys like Noel, McLemore, Porter, and Smart almost certainly gone before us, we should have some possibilities there. I'd gladly take Oladipo - find some way to fit him into the lineup as well as having a myriad of trade opportunities down the road.

Just not sold on Olynyk. I agree on the lesser competition (sorry, Kev - I don't believe SOS rankings for a second, they are the second most insidious development in college basketball over the past decade, especially since it is such a significant driver of the RPI. There's no way that Gonzaga's schedule was nearly as tough as Maryland's, but that's a whole other discussion.)

And like Dat, I'm very skeptical of guys who did nothing for 2 or 3 years and then "break out". There's a long line of guys from Hilton Armstrong to Shelden Williams to Jordan Hill to Derrick Williams and so on who have been disappointments relative to their draft position. Not to say that profile won't end up as a useful role player, but it is extremely rare for a guy who didn't dominate college level players before 20 to be able to be a true impact player in the NBA at 25. So, I wouldn't take him with a Lottery/Top 10 pick. OTOH, I love the idea of adding Dieng or Withey - both guys who practically define this profile/college career arc - for the specific reason that I think they could be instant role player/contributors.

But it's all a "mute" point anyway, because we're getting a top 3 pick this year. Maybe we should let Ji start the Lottery Thread to ensure it happens.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How would any of you rate or rank these PFs?

Cory Jefferson
Patric Young
Adrien Payne

I think they're all good players. Which (if any) will go in round one and which (if any) should either return to school? They're all juniors.

Howell, Mbakwe, Iverson, Oriakhi are seniors. I'm sure I'm leaving out some others.

[Ruzious]

How would any of you rate or rank these PFs?

Cory Jefferson
Patric Young
Adrien Payne

I think they're all good players. Which (if any) will go in round one and which (if any) should either return to school? They're all juniors.

Howell, Mbakwe, Iverson, Oriakhi are seniors. I'm sure I'm leaving out some others.

I'd have Jefferson way ahead of all of the others you mentioned. Payne next - but I'd have to know about his medical/asthma issues and how they affect his durability. Young is a physical specimin, but a blah player that I have next to no interest in. Howell I like a lot as strictly a 4th or 5th big. Same with Oriakhi. Mbakwe is real old, but he looked good against top competition, so he might be a good 2nd rounder. Iverson I know nothing about.

[Nivek]

Just not sold on Olynyk. I agree on the lesser competition (sorry, Kev - I don't believe SOS rankings for a second, they are the second most insidious development in college basketball over the past decade, especially since it is such a significant driver of the RPI. There's no way that Gonzaga's schedule was nearly as tough as Maryland's, but that's a whole other discussion.)

Ah yes, the always effective "because I said so" argument.

[WizarDynasty]

if there aren't any bigs that fit that description, then we shouldn't force a first round pick on one. If adams doesn't have a high motor, then he shouldn't be drafted in first round my opinion.
Again, best to start out with the raw attributes required for the prototyped bigman in washington. Nene and Okafor are the prototype bigmen we need, 10 years younger. Seraphin i believe will develop but i don't think he has a high basketball iq or good hands. He will be a wonderful 6th man big for the future. But having a high iq, p young shot blocker with excelent lower body strengths that can stretch the floor will be important.
But if a big doesn't have the attributes i mentioned, he should be eliminated from discussion in the first round.

[Nivek]

if there aren't any bigs that fit that description, then we shouldn't force a first round pick on one. If adams doesn't have a high motor, then he shouldn't be drafted in first round my opinion.
Again, best to start out with the raw attributes required for the prototyped bigman in washington. Nene and Okafor are the prototype bigmen we need, 10 years younger. Seraphin i believe will develop but i don't think he has a high basketball iq or good hands. He will be a wonderful 6th man big for the future. But having a high iq, p young shot blocker with excelent lower body strengths that can stretch the floor will be important.
But if a big doesn't have the attributes i mentioned, he should be eliminated from discussion in the first round.

Nene's standing reach was just 9-1. Amazing he's been able to succeed with that kind of physical deficiency.