2020 Draft

[Ruzious]

...I think this draft is deep in useful roster players top to bottom....

Ok... I've got this completely worked out now. Tell me what you think:
Trade #9 to kings for their 12, 43 & 52.
Trade #12 plus a little $$ to Sixers for their #21, 34 & 36.
21- Desmond Bane
34 - Tyler Bey
36 - Xavier Tillman
37 - Vernon Carey
43 - Malachi Flynn
52 - Nate Hinton
Undrafted FA: Nathan Knight

Two of them become 2-way players.
Pick up Bonga's option.
Cut Schofield, he's useless; eat his salary.
Sign Mathews for 3 years with a 2d-year team option.
Re-sign Bertans (b/c everybody wants to re-sign Bertans).
Hide one of the smaller guys behind one of the larger guys when the league comes around to count players on our roster. (I.e. I've taken us to 16 -- worry about that later).

For the first time in history, there are co-RoYs on the same team as Desmond Bane & Xavier Tillman sweep the board.

It actually wouldn't shock me if Bane is up there in ROY competition. Tillman? No, but I know you're just kidding there, and he could be a fine role player. Some of those players will probably go a little earlier, but that's a fun look. 7 rookies might be a bit much, but i wouldn't complain... much.

[nate33]

The lack of respect Paul Reed gets is startling. 6'9, 220 with a 7'2 wingspan with quick hands and feet. The fact that a clearly worse player in Achiuwa gets talked about in the top 12 and Reed possibly going to the 2nd makes zero sense.
Reed, despite being a Junior, is only a couple months older than Precious while being better on both ends of the court.

He just averaged 12 rebounds and 5 STOCKS per 36... Thats a Zion, Clarke, Bamba, Jonathan Isaac, Noel, etc. type impact.

It's weird how far he has fallen. He was in the teens a few months ago.

If Tillman isn't available at #37, I'd be happy with Reed.

Paul Reed actually reminds me of a little smaller version of Willie Reed who used to play for the Knicks (as opposed to Willis Reed who... used to play for the Knicks). Willie actually had pretty decent stats for his NBA career. Maybe I saw Paul at his worst, but I just wasn't impressed with him - and he really needed to get stronger - maybe he's done that - I don't know. Measurements should be coming soon. If he's like 210 lbs, that's a bad sign for him. And he's not a Brandon Clarke level athlete to make up for it.

I didn't realize he was so light. But one thing he has over Clarke is much more height and wingspan.

[DCZards]

Paul Reed actually reminds me of a little smaller version of Willie Reed who used to play for the Knicks (as opposed to Willis Reed who... used to play for the Knicks). Willie actually had pretty decent stats for his NBA career. Maybe I saw Paul at his worst, but I just wasn't impressed with him - and he really needed to get stronger - maybe he's done that - I don't know. Measurements should be coming soon. If he's like 210 lbs, that's a bad sign for him. And he's not a Brandon Clarke level athlete to make up for it.

As a G'Town/Big East fan, I've seen Paul Reed play 5-6 times over the last couple of years. He's an impressive and instinctive shotblocker, and a good all-around defender. Like you, I worry about the lanky Reed's strength, especially since he doesn't have much of a game away from the basket and will likely spend most of his time in the paint playing against bigger, stronger player. I've seen Reed listed at 220 lbs but I doubt that he really weighs that much.

I've seen Reed as projected as an early- to mid-2nd round pick, which is probably about right.

[payitforward]

Interesting takes on Reed.

Sometimes we have paradigms for players, & if a guy doesn't fit that paradigm we translate the "non-fits" into "weaknesses." No doubt it sometimes works to do that. But, lots of things work "sometimes," & no matter how useful that paradigm seems, it is still a fiction.

Neither teams nor players are mechanical devices. We aren't fitting parts together when we build a team, as if we we were assembling a watch movement.

The most recent example of paradigm failure is, of course, Brandon Clarke. But, there are plenty more.

No one knows whether Paul Reed will be a successful NBA player -- or how successful. But, we don't know that about anyone picked anywhere in any draft. Yet for a player to be available in the mid-30s to mid-40s of an NBA draft who has the athletic attributes Reed has, & has put up the numbers he's put up in high level NCAA competition... that's a ridiculous bargain.

Rinse & repeat for Vernon Carey, Jr., Tillman, & a handful of other guys. & that's what makes this draft so very weird.

[bsilver]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

[payitforward]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

If there is no one around at #9 who's exciting, then trade down -- don't reach for Achiuwa.

What makes Achiuwa an especially promising player? Nothing I can see. In fact, I find it hard to evaluat him as better than Paul Reed.

He's no better as a rebounder, really -- in fact, if you include steals & turnovers as the other ball-possession stats, he isn't as good overall as Reed. He's certainly not as good a shooter. He scores most of his points on opportunities he won't get in the NBA.

Not predicting he'll be a bust, but it wouldn't be much of a surprise.

[dckingsfan]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

If there is no one around at #9 who's exciting, then trade down -- don't reach for Achiuwa.

What makes Achiuwa an especially promising player? Nothing I can see. In fact, I find it hard to evaluat him as better than Paul Reed.

He's no better as a rebounder, really -- in fact, if you include steals & turnovers as the other ball-possession stats, he isn't as good overall as Reed. He's certainly not as good a shooter. He scores most of his points on opportunities he won't get in the NBA.

Not predicting he'll be a bust, but it wouldn't be much of a surprise.

So this...

[pcbothwel]

Also.. this PG/Lead Guard class is crazy deep. From 10-40, Hampton, Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, Jones, Terry, Bolmaro, Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Quickley, Flynn...

We need to get one of these guys. The value Pritchard, Winston, Riller, jones, and Flynn would provide over the next 3 years on their 2nd round rookie contract is essential with the Wall/Beal salaries.

The freshman (Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, and Hampton) all showed NBA skills, but shot poorly. At least 1 of these guys hits and would be interested in all in the event we trade back.

That said, I think TS is really looking at Okoro given his immediate fit and upside. Okoro can come in day 1 and guard the best perimeter player while getting hustle points and living at the FT line in the same way Butler did early in his career.

Buy a mid 2nd and draft Okoro, Tillman, Flynn/Pritchard/Winston
Sign Hinton as UDFA

Again, I have Vassell above Okoro, but I can see the fit for Okoro believe his defense/hustle points transfer to the pros easily.

[Ruzious]

Also.. this PG/Lead Guard class is crazy deep. From 10-40, Hampton, Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, Jones, Terry, Bolmaro, Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Quickley, Flynn...

We need to get one of these guys. The value Pritchard, Winston, Riller, jones, and Flynn would provide over the next 3 years on their 2nd round rookie contract is essential with the Wall/Beal salaries.

The freshman (Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, and Hampton) all showed NBA skills, but shot poorly. At least 1 of these guys hits and would be interested in all in the event we trade back.

That said, I think TS is really looking at Okoro given his immediate fit and upside. Okoro can come in day 1 and guard the best perimeter player while getting hustle points and living at the FT line in the same way Butler did early in his career.

Buy a mid 2nd and draft Okoro, Tillman, Flynn/Pritchard/Winston
Sign Hinton as UDFA

Again, I have Vassell above Okoro, but I can see the fit for Okoro believe his defense/hustle points transfer to the pros easily.

Yeah, I'd be disappointed if we don't get one of Flynn or Pritchard - the value is just too good to pass up in the 2nd round. Flynn's a sure thing, and I think Pritchard has a bit more potential. If I had to choose between them, I'd have Gilbert Arenas flip a coin.

[DCZards]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

[Frichuela]

Also.. this PG/Lead Guard class is crazy deep. From 10-40, Hampton, Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, Jones, Terry, Bolmaro, Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Quickley, Flynn...

We need to get one of these guys. The value Pritchard, Winston, Riller, jones, and Flynn would provide over the next 3 years on their 2nd round rookie contract is essential with the Wall/Beal salaries.

The freshman (Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, and Hampton) all showed NBA skills, but shot poorly. At least 1 of these guys hits and would be interested in all in the event we trade back.

That said, I think TS is really looking at Okoro given his immediate fit and upside. Okoro can come in day 1 and guard the best perimeter player while getting hustle points and living at the FT line in the same way Butler did early in his career.

Buy a mid 2nd and draft Okoro, Tillman, Flynn/Pritchard/Winston
Sign Hinton as UDFA

Again, I have Vassell above Okoro, but I can see the fit for Okoro believe his defense/hustle points transfer to the pros easily.

Do you have any intel suggesting Tommy has a preference for Okoro? I thought Okongwu was more likely to be top of his list.

In any case, I have a gut feeling Okoro will be chosen top 6...despite his shooting woes..

[nate33]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

After a cursory evaluation, I'm not particularly enamored with Achiuwa. He is a total zero on offense, with an anemic .531 TS% and hitting on .599 of his FT's. And he's a terrible passer. It's possible to live with a poor offensive center if he is a monster on defense, but, standing only 6-9, Achiuwa has very little chance to be an elite rim protector in the Gobert, Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson mold. (And at that height, he's not going to be a fearsome roll threat either.) And, although just a freshman, he's already 21 so I don't think he is going to grow anymore.

There have been good defensive centers who aren't 7-foot long-armed freaks, but they're generally extremely stout, strong base guys with high basketball IQ - guys like Draymond Green and Bam Adebayo. Achiuwa, is 20 pounds lighter than Bam when he was drafted (despite being a year older), and he has none of the basketball IQ indicators that Draymond Green had (assist rate, steals rate).

Achiuwa looks more like a shorter Gorgui Dieng to me, only with a lower FT%, giving him less of a chance to develop a serviceable NBA perimeter shot.

[Frichuela]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

Agreed on Okongwu.

On Achiuwa, I wonder if it's best they pick the best available wing at #9 (provided Okongwu is gone) and choose a Paul Reed at #37.

Even better, we trade back with Pelicans, Boston or the Nets and get:

1) Hart +#13 (Sadiq Bey/Nesmith?) for #9. At #37 pick Paul Reed.
2) #14 (Sadiq Bey/Nesmith?) + #26 (Tillman) for #9. At #37 pick the best available guard (Flynn/Riller/Winston/Pritchard). FYI- I think Tillman will be picked in the 1st round.
3) #19 (Tyrell Terry) + Jarrett Allen + Temple (TO) for #9 + Bryant. At #37 pick Paul Reed.

[pcbothwel]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

But... it is.
Players with the age and production of Vassell or Haliburton are lotto picks.
Players with the age and production of Precious are late 1st-early 2nd.

Look at where Jalen Smith, Reed, Carey, Perry, Stewert, Tillman, etc. are mocked. All same age or younger and more productive.
Even previous years. Claxton, Fernando, Gafford... Robert Williams, Mitchell Robinson...

The highest drafted big in the last couple years with a similar skillset and similar production would be Jarrett Allen who was drafted at #22. Marquese Chriss is another example and was drafted at 8, but has been a HUGE bust and the league has learned over the last 4-5 years since.

OTOH, you see Hunter, Culver, Cam Johnson, Bridges, Kennard, etc... all considered low ceiling, high floor 2/3 prospects taken in the lotto.

[payitforward]

Also.. this PG/Lead Guard class is crazy deep. From 10-40, Hampton, Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, Jones, Terry, Bolmaro, Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Quickley, Flynn...

We need to get one of these guys. The value Pritchard, Winston, Riller, jones, and Flynn would provide over the next 3 years on their 2nd round rookie contract is essential with the Wall/Beal salaries.

The freshman (Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, and Hampton) all showed NBA skills, but shot poorly. At least 1 of these guys hits and would be interested in all in the event we trade back.

That said, I think TS is really looking at Okoro given his immediate fit and upside. Okoro can come in day 1 and guard the best perimeter player while getting hustle points and living at the FT line in the same way Butler did early in his career.

Buy a mid 2nd and draft Okoro, Tillman, Flynn/Pritchard/Winston
Sign Hinton as UDFA

Again, I have Vassell above Okoro, but I can see the fit for Okoro believe his defense/hustle points transfer to the pros easily.

Yeah, I'd be disappointed if we don't get one of Flynn or Pritchard - the value is just too good to pass up in the 2nd round. Flynn's a sure thing, and I think Pritchard has a bit more potential. If I had to choose between them, I'd have Gilbert Arenas flip a coin.

Yup on Flynn, Pritchard, & a few other guys whose names we've been repeating here again & again. There are bargain guards galore!

This draft is a test of Tommy's skills in managing his team's future. He said over and over "this year is for player development" -- the implication being that in '20-21, with Wall back, we were back to competing for... I don't know what, to tell the truth.

But, '20-21 is going to be a very weird season, obviously. & this is clearly a very unusual draft. So, even if I'd bought into Tommy's mantra, I'd be completely revising my strategy right now.

Once we extend Bonga & waive Admiral, we'll have only 9 signed players. Count Mathews & assume we re-sign Bertans, & that still leaves 6 open roster spots (including 2-way players, obviously).

IMO, we'd be crazy not to come out of this draft with at least 4 guys (including the Nathan Knight undrafted). Honestly... it could be all 6 of those spots! Keep in mind that most of those guys are going to be very cheap. We won't have a tax problem no matter what, & if we have to eat 2 of those cheap contracts it still won't hurt us to speak of.

Seems to me the above makes perfect sense, though it's an unconventional way to proceed. I see it -- at least potentially -- as a significantly accelerated version of "the process," ala Hinkie.

[payitforward]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

That's a prediction, Zards! So -- wherever any of these guys wind up going -- we'll get to see whether you were correct.

But, indulge me for a moment: here's what I see as odd about this post by you -- even if Haliburton & Vassell were a stretch at #9, that wouldn't mean we should pick Precious. It would mean that we shouldn't pick any of the 3 of them! It would mean that we should trade down.

Don't get me wrong -- I don't want to sound like I'm predicting that Precious Achiuwa won't be a good NBA player. Not at all. I have no special ability to pick winners. &, Precious certainly brings something.

But, Precious Achiuwa isn't as high as #9 on any big board by anyone anywhere -- at least not that I've seen. Now, that doesn't mean he won't wind up the best player out of this draft. Anything's possible.

But, it does mean that we should not pick him at #9. First off, we should not be "all in" on any player at his level -- any more than we should have been "all in" on Rui Hachimura. These are not guys on some lofty tier above all others. There's every bit as good a chance that Paul Reed is the best player out of this draft as that it's Precious Achiuwa. Certainly, there is no reason I can see to predict that Precious will be better than Reed.

If you have Precious on a short list (3-5 guys on the same tier, say), then trade down! You'll get one of them. &, who knows, one of them might fall so that you get 2 of them! More likely, there'll be another guy available w/ that extra pick you got trading down who is better than one or all of the group you had earmarked.

[pcbothwel]

Also.. this PG/Lead Guard class is crazy deep. From 10-40, Hampton, Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, Jones, Terry, Bolmaro, Pritchard, Winston, Riller, Quickley, Flynn...

We need to get one of these guys. The value Pritchard, Winston, Riller, jones, and Flynn would provide over the next 3 years on their 2nd round rookie contract is essential with the Wall/Beal salaries.

The freshman (Anthony, Maxey, Mannion, and Hampton) all showed NBA skills, but shot poorly. At least 1 of these guys hits and would be interested in all in the event we trade back.

That said, I think TS is really looking at Okoro given his immediate fit and upside. Okoro can come in day 1 and guard the best perimeter player while getting hustle points and living at the FT line in the same way Butler did early in his career.

Buy a mid 2nd and draft Okoro, Tillman, Flynn/Pritchard/Winston
Sign Hinton as UDFA

Again, I have Vassell above Okoro, but I can see the fit for Okoro believe his defense/hustle points transfer to the pros easily.

Do you have any intel suggesting Tommy has a preference for Okoro? I thought Okongwu was more likely to be top of his list.

In any case, I have a gut feeling Okoro will be chosen top 6...despite his shooting woes..

Nothing particular. Deductive reasoning based on comments about culture, defense, athleticism, and competing with Beal.
- He wont draft a project that sits on the bench(Poku) or doesnt play defense (Toppin/Anthony).
- I think TS also realizes there are only so many possessions/shots to go around, and Wall, Beal, Bertans, Rui, and Bryant all need shots.
- I also think he'd like to have some upside

I think Okongwu would be best, but assuming he is gone I could see Okoro. TS could value him over Vassell because while Vassell is the better defender, Okoro translates as the better Man defender and stronger at the POA. Vassell is also the better shooter, but as I previously mentioned, TS may value someone who scores more hustle points and draws fouls.

[payitforward]

I’d be satisfied with Precious A at 9. Defense, rebounding, athleticism, high motor. All attributes that should be high on list of Wizards needs. OO would bring the same with more size, but little chance he’ll be around at 9. No one likely around at 9 really is too exciting.

PA would have to be able to play some some small ball C for this pick to work out, but he seems to have the frame to develop physically. One way or another, Wagner has to go.

I feel ya! The Zards need to get a LOT better in those areas you point out.

It's nice to have excellent guards and wings and outside shooting big men like Bryant, but until the Zards get better at rebounding, rim protection and overall D we will continue to get punked in the paint and on the boards.

Okongwu would be my first choice but I would not be disappointed at all if the Zards end up drafting Achiuwa at 9. It’s no more of a stretch drafting Precious at 9 than it would be drafting Vassell or Haliburton.

Agreed on Okongwu.

On Achiuwa, I wonder if it's best they pick the best available wing at #9 (provided Okongwu is gone) and choose a Paul Reed at #37.

Even better, we trade back with Pelicans, Boston or the Nets and get:

1) Hart +#13 (Sadiq Bey/Nesmith?) for #9. At #37 pick Paul Reed.
2) #14 (Sadiq Bey/Nesmith?) + #26 (Tillman) for #9. At #37 pick the best available guard (Flynn/Riller/Winston/Pritchard). FYI- I think Tillman will be picked in the 1st round.
3) #19 (Tyrell Terry) + Jarrett Allen + Temple (TO) for #9 + Bryant. At #37 pick Paul Reed.

Without being certain I'd make the same picks you mention, any of these moves beats picking Achiuwa with the #9 pick:

1. Your first one would almost certainly get us Achiuwa anyway -- if there weren't someone better at #13.
2. Your 2d, with Boston, would be a steal -- I'm not sure they'd give us #14 & #26 for #9 -- that's a bit much to move 5 spots. But... it's possible -- could be made to work.
3. I don't think I'd pick Tyrell Terry in that scenario... just don't think there's enough data to justify it.

[payitforward]

Latest nbcsports R1 mock: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/2020-nba-mock-draft-80-why-first-round-depth-could-benefit-celtics. We get Killian Hayes, which will make some people happy.

Ditto bleacher report: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/2020-nba-mock-draft-80-why-first-round-depth-could-benefit-celtics. We get Okongwu in this one!

Yardbarker: https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2020_nba_first_round_mock_draft_minnesota_selects/s1__32702996#slide_1 -- has us taking Vassell.

[payitforward]

Anybody with an "Insider" sub to espn would be great to post Givony's mock -- I'm guessing it'll be significantly different from the others.