Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[NatP4]

Id rather have multiple picks in the 10-20 range than trade Beal straight up for another lesser player making 20 million+.

Right now, in the 10-20 range you can get guys like Wagner, Giddey, Butler, and Queta.

Personally, I only want to move Beal for trade packages centered around draft picks. Not roster players.

[badinage]

Since we’re talking about Westbrook and his and our future ...

Here’s a weird and maybe interesting thought:

Why not play him at PF? He’s not much smaller than PJ Tucker, rebounds like a demon, and is strong and thiccc. You’d still get playmaking out of him on offense, but he wouldn’t have the ball in his hands all the time. That would be another (ideally pointish) guard and Deni. Essentially, it would be turning him into a smaller version of Lebron — which seems perfect to me. Playmaking within the context of the offense, playing on the block and wing, rebounding, making the offense more dynamic and versatile.

This would give the team three players who can initiate the O and make plays. Yes, it would make us smaller. We’d need a creative and visionary coach a la D’Antoni — and that coach would have to make the case that the ball can’t be in his hands all game, and why, and make it stick. But it would be fascinating to see. And I imagine it would be good for his longevity, while helping the team too.

[nate33]

If we're trading Beal, what about to Philly or to Boston, depending on how they do in the playoffs? Jaylen Brown or Ben Simmons. Both guys are young and on long-term contracts. Beal and Embiid would be amazing together and in Boston, Beal would get to play with his St. Louis buddy, Tatum. In each case, the other team would probably need to throw in a draft pick or two, I would think, since Beal makes them better than either Brown or Simmons.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that trading Beal for Jaylen Brown plus a pick or two might end up being the best available package. I'd probably do it. Brown is only 24, and like Beal, he seems to get better every year. I really like him.

No thanks. Brown will never be better than Beal. Then you have the same situation in a few years as he hits UFA in his prime at 27. That’s a marginal move. Give me a rookie(s) with 8 years of team control and 4 years of rookie salary with the upside to be better than Brown.

Sure. I'd rather have a rookie in the top 4 of this draft too. But with New Orleans looking unlikely to land a top 4 spot, and with Orlando now in full rebuild, two of the best candidates to trade a top 4 pick to us are off the table.

If Beal hints that he wants to leave, and if we can't trade him for a top 4 pick, I like Brown better than Simmons, or Herro and change, or MPJ. (Indeed, MPJ may be off the table too now that Denver is looking real good following the Gordon trade.)

[nate33]

Id rather have multiple picks in the 10-20 range than trade Beal straight up for another lesser player making 20 million+.

Right now, in the 10-20 range you can get guys like Wagner, Giddey, Butler, and Queta.

Personally, I only want to move Beal for trade packages centered around draft picks. Not roster players.

Brown is way better than a hodge podge of picks in the 10-20 range. Brown is barely worse than Beal right now. He isn't as good offensively, but he is much better defensively and that closes the gap considerably. Factor in that he is just 24 and has a track record of consistent improvement (like Beal) and it's a pretty decent deal. Certainly, the odds of Brown being a multiple All-Star are higher than the odds of 3 or so picks in the teens.

[nate33]

Since we’re talking about Westbrook and his and our future ...

Here’s a weird and maybe interesting thought:

Why not play him at PF? He’s not much smaller than PJ Tucker, rebounds like a demon, and is strong and thiccc. You’d still get playmaking out of him on offense, but he wouldn’t have the ball in his hands all the time. That would be another (ideally pointish) guard and Deni. Essentially, it would be turning him into a smaller version of Lebron — which seems perfect to me. Playmaking within the context of the offense, playing on the block and wing, rebounding, making the offense more dynamic and versatile.

This would give the team three players who can initiate the O and make plays. Yes, it would make us smaller. We’d need a creative and visionary coach a la D’Antoni — and that coach would have to make the case that the ball can’t be in his hands all game, and why, and make it stick. But it would be fascinating to see. And I imagine it would be good for his longevity, while helping the team too.

What exactly do you mean by "play him at PF"? Do you mean that we should field a lineup where Westbrook is the 2nd tallest Wizard on the floor? Because that is a mistake. We'd get destroyed defensively.

Westbrook's rebounding is overrated. He picks up a lot of defensive boards that would have otherwise gone to other Wizards. If you put him at PF and asked him to box out guys like Giannis or Paul Millsap to get rebounds one on one, he wouldn't do so well.

[NatP4]

Id rather have multiple picks in the 10-20 range than trade Beal straight up for another lesser player making 20 million+.

Right now, in the 10-20 range you can get guys like Wagner, Giddey, Butler, and Queta.

Personally, I only want to move Beal for trade packages centered around draft picks. Not roster players.

Brown is way better than a hodge podge of picks in the 10-20 range. Brown is barely worse than Beal right now. He isn't as good offensively, but he is much better defensively and that closes the gap considerably. Factor in that he is just 24 and has a track record of consistent improvement (like Beal) and it's a pretty decent deal. Certainly, the odds of Brown being a multiple All-Star are higher than the odds of 3 or so picks in the teens.

You would rather have Jaylen Brown at 24 years old making 23-28 million than Franz Wagner, Neemius Queta, and Josh Giddey/Jared Butler on rookie contracts with 8 years of team control for EACH?

What about Haliburton, Quickley, and Isaiah Stewart/Saddiq Bey?? Or in 2018, SGA, Michael Porter Jr
, and Donte Divencenzo/Robert Williams? 2017, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, and John Collins?

That’s just silly to me.

[nate33]

Id rather have multiple picks in the 10-20 range than trade Beal straight up for another lesser player making 20 million+.

Right now, in the 10-20 range you can get guys like Wagner, Giddey, Butler, and Queta.

Personally, I only want to move Beal for trade packages centered around draft picks. Not roster players.

Brown is way better than a hodge podge of picks in the 10-20 range. Brown is barely worse than Beal right now. He isn't as good offensively, but he is much better defensively and that closes the gap considerably. Factor in that he is just 24 and has a track record of consistent improvement (like Beal) and it's a pretty decent deal. Certainly, the odds of Brown being a multiple All-Star are higher than the odds of 3 or so picks in the teens.

You would rather have Jaylen Brown at 24 years old making 23-28 million than Franz Wagner, Neemius Queta, and Josh Giddey/Jared Butler on rookie contracts with 8 years of team control for EACH?

What about Haliburton, Quickley, and Isaiah Stewart/Saddiq Bey?? Or in 2018, SGA, Michael Porter Jr
, and Donte Divencenzo/Robert Williams? 2017, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, and John Collins?

That’s just silly to me.

First of all, you make it sound like the rookie contract guys are a lot cheaper. They're not. It's not like you get 8 years of All-Star caliber play on a rookie scale contract. While the players are on their rookie contracts, they're still learning the game and won't be All-Star caliber guys. And by the time they're All-Star caliber guys, they'll be making what Brown is making.

But more importantly, you are assuming that your 3 picks in the teens gets you Mitchell, Bam and Collins. It's more likely that you get Malik Monk, Justin Patton, and T.J Leaf.

[NatP4]

Brown is way better than a hodge podge of picks in the 10-20 range. Brown is barely worse than Beal right now. He isn't as good offensively, but he is much better defensively and that closes the gap considerably. Factor in that he is just 24 and has a track record of consistent improvement (like Beal) and it's a pretty decent deal. Certainly, the odds of Brown being a multiple All-Star are higher than the odds of 3 or so picks in the teens.

You would rather have Jaylen Brown at 24 years old making 23-28 million than Franz Wagner, Neemius Queta, and Josh Giddey/Jared Butler on rookie contracts with 8 years of team control for EACH?

What about Haliburton, Quickley, and Isaiah Stewart/Saddiq Bey?? Or in 2018, SGA, Michael Porter Jr
, and Donte Divencenzo/Robert Williams? 2017, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, and John Collins?

That’s just silly to me.

First of all, you make it sound like the rookie contract guys are a lot cheaper. They're not. It's not like you get 8 years of All-Star caliber play on a rookie scale contract. While the players are on their rookie contracts, they're still learning the game and won't be All-Star caliber guys. And by the time they're All-Star caliber guys, they'll be making what Brown is making.

But more importantly, you are assuming that your 3 picks in the teens gets you Mitchell, Bam and Collins. It's more likely that you get Malik Monk, Justin Patton, and T.J Leaf.

How exactly are you more likely to draft Patton, Monk, and Leaf?

The rookie contracts are significantly cheaper. 3 rookies in the 10-20 range costs no more than 10 million a year vs 24-28 million a year for Jaylen Brown. Nevermind the fact that all 3 of those players will be RFAs at the same time that Brown hits UFA and is owed the veteran max.

There’s no comparison here.

[nate33]

You would rather have Jaylen Brown at 24 years old making 23-28 million than Franz Wagner, Neemius Queta, and Josh Giddey/Jared Butler on rookie contracts with 8 years of team control for EACH?

What about Haliburton, Quickley, and Isaiah Stewart/Saddiq Bey?? Or in 2018, SGA, Michael Porter Jr
, and Donte Divencenzo/Robert Williams? 2017, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell, and John Collins?

That’s just silly to me.

First of all, you make it sound like the rookie contract guys are a lot cheaper. They're not. It's not like you get 8 years of All-Star caliber play on a rookie scale contract. While the players are on their rookie contracts, they're still learning the game and won't be All-Star caliber guys. And by the time they're All-Star caliber guys, they'll be making what Brown is making.

But more importantly, you are assuming that your 3 picks in the teens gets you Mitchell, Bam and Collins. It's more likely that you get Malik Monk, Justin Patton, and T.J Leaf.

How exactly are you more likely to draft Patton, Monk, and Leaf?

Because 7 of the 10 picks in the teens in the 2017 draft were bench-caliber guys. Yeah Mitchell and Bam are excellent and Collins is good, but the other 7 guys are: Malik Monk, Luke Kennard, Justin Jackson, Justin Patton, DJ Wilson, TJ Leaf and Harry Giles.

In the 2016 draft, Sabonis was good and Levert is okay. The other 8 guys were: Taurean Prince, Georgios Papagiannis, Denzel Valentine, Juan Hernangómez, Guerschon Yabusele, Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, and Malik Beasley.

In the 2015 draft, Devin Booker was good, Myles Turner and Terry Rozier are solid, and the rest are: Trey Lyes, Cameron Payne, Kelly Oubre, Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant and Delon Wright.

By my count, of the 30 picks in the 11-20 range in the 2015, 2016 and 2017, there are:
0 MVP Caliber superstars
1 All-NBA caliber talent: Booker (possibly. He is still quite young.)
3 All-Star caliber talents: Mitchell, Bam, Sabonis,
4 good starters: Collins, Turner, Rozier, Levert
5 rotation players: Kennard, Beasley, Oubre, Wright, Monk
The other 17 guys you could cut and replace with some minimum salary vet and never notice the difference.

I'd put Brown in the same tier as the top 4 of this group: Booker, Mitchell, Bam and Sabonis. So would you rather have the sure thing in Brown, or three 4-in-30 chances of landing a guy as good as Brown?

[DCZards]

I think the main point that Nate is making (which I agree with) is that, if you trade Beal, getting an all-star caliber player like Brown in exchange should be the goal. That would be preferable to getting 3-4 mid-first round draft picks...all of whom might turn out to be average players (or good role players) at best.

[Dat2U]

Trading Beal for a hodge podge of picks is a non-starter IMO. I trust my scouting eye more than anyone and I would not want a Harden type return for Beal. Simmons, Brown, top 4 pick, Porter Jr, along with additional assets are far more valuable IMO than bunch of future picks.

[NatP4]

First of all, you make it sound like the rookie contract guys are a lot cheaper. They're not. It's not like you get 8 years of All-Star caliber play on a rookie scale contract. While the players are on their rookie contracts, they're still learning the game and won't be All-Star caliber guys. And by the time they're All-Star caliber guys, they'll be making what Brown is making.

But more importantly, you are assuming that your 3 picks in the teens gets you Mitchell, Bam and Collins. It's more likely that you get Malik Monk, Justin Patton, and T.J Leaf.

How exactly are you more likely to draft Patton, Monk, and Leaf?

Because 7 of the 10 picks in the teens in the 2017 draft were bench-caliber guys. Yeah Mitchell and Bam are excellent and Collins is good, but the other 7 guys are: Malik Monk, Luke Kennard, Justin Jackson, Justin Patton, DJ Wilson, TJ Leaf and Harry Giles.

In the 2016 draft, Sabonis was good and Levert is okay. The other 8 guys were: Taurean Prince, Georgios Papagiannis, Denzel Valentine, Juan Hernangómez, Guerschon Yabusele, Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, and Malik Beasley.

In the 2015 draft, Devin Booker was good, Myles Turner and Terry Rozier are solid, and the rest are: Trey Lyes, Cameron Payne, Kelly Oubre, Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant and Delon Wright.

By my count, of the 30 picks in the 11-20 range in the 2015, 2016 and 2017, there are:
0 MVP Caliber superstars
1 All-NBA caliber talent: Booker (possibly. He is still quite young.)
3 All-Star caliber talents: Mitchell, Bam, Sabonis,
4 good starters: Collins, Turner, Rozier, Levert
5 rotation players: Kennard, Beasley, Oubre, Wright, Monk
The other 17 guys you could cut and replace with some minimum salary vet and never notice the difference.

I'd put Brown in the same tier as the top 4 of this group: Booker, Mitchell, Bam and Sabonis. So would you rather have the sure thing in Brown, or three 4-in-30 chances of landing a guy as good as Brown?

Can I use the board consensus opinions for the 3 picks or NBA GM opinions that pick Anthony Edwards 1st overall?

3 chances with an 8/30 chance still has nothing to do with rookie contract/RFA rights vs a max contract+UFA.

[NatP4]

I think the main point that Nate is making (which I agree with) is that, if you trade Beal, getting an all-star caliber player like Brown in exchange should be the goal. That would be preferable to getting 3-4 mid-first round draft picks...all of whom might turn out to be average players (or good role players) at best.

That’s just not correct.... plenty of mid first round and later picks have turned into “star” players.

[NatP4]

We are equating Jaylen Brown and Ben Simmons to a top 4 pick? Not me.

[wall_glizzy]

I think the main point that Nate is making (which I agree with) is that, if you trade Beal, getting an all-star caliber player like Brown in exchange should be the goal. That would be preferable to getting 3-4 mid-first round draft picks...all of whom might turn out to be average players (or good role players) at best.

That’s just not correct.... plenty of mid first round and later picks have turned into “star” players.

Yes, but far more have not. The question isn't whether it's possible to land a major impact player in the middle of the first, but whether the odds of doing so (even given a couple of chances) are sufficiently in our favor to warrant passing up an already-proven player or higher-value asset (e.g. a single pick at the very top of the lottery) - they're not.

We are equating Jaylen Brown and Ben Simmons to a top 4 pick? Not me.

It's worth noting that both were, themselves, top 4 picks (2016 #1 and #3, respectively). And both of them, especially Brown, have already reached probably a top-quartile outcome as far as their development goes.

[payitforward]

Discussion about Russ is really interesting & useful.

If he played the way he did vs. the Magic (I don't mean played as well -- just played in that manner), he would be a huge positive. Enormous.

In fact, digging a little deeper...

If we compare Russ to Chris Paul & Ben Simmons, two of the best PGs in the game, & for the moment we leave out scoring -- we just look at all 3 guys other numbers -- Russell this season is far more productive than either of them.

But, wait, it's better than that: if we include 3-point shooting & FG shooting in the comparison, Westbrook is still having a better season overall than either Chris Paul or Simmons.

Now... that's quite a statement, because Chris Paul is the best PG in the history of the game, & he hasn't declined one bit overall -- he's having a season that's just above his career average. So, it's not trivial to say that outside of 2-pt. shooting, Westbrook is outplaying him! & that includes the fact that Russ -- a career 79.2% FT shooter -- is at only 61.9% this year.

In short, Russell Westbrook is an awfully good player! Just stop shooting so much.

[Kanyewest]

If you give Russ a rim-running offensive rebounder/lob threat you convert many of his WTF jump passes and bad shots into assists & points. Ideally they are able to hit a jumper from above the FT line. If they pick/screen well then Beal and Bertans know how to get themselves open for his passes.

On the offensive end that suggests Thomas Bryant, who runs hard on every play and hits a solid % down low. Gafford has the raw tools on this end as well, plus he is a deterrent in defensive rim defense, but Bryant's decent range means his man may follow him outside giving Russ more room both to attack the rim and rebound any long misses on offense. Bryant's missed three becomes Russ' putback when there is no Big in the lane.

You'd want players in all positions who box out their man, even if they don't rebound. You need to give Russ lanes to jump in and grab it. He's going to go for it on offense, so will be out of position on transition defense, but if he does collect it often enough then you give a head start for your own transition attack, with your finishers outrunning the defense.

I'd want Hachimura to keep working his outside shot, sure, if he does so you can play him as a big SF, but wherever he plays I want him to figure out a finishing move down low. He has good hands to catch the pass, he needs to figure out how to score when Russ does find him. You want him to maximize his tweener aspect with inside/outside scoring depending on his match-up. Also, if he learned to set a hard pick, he could clear out players who ran into him. That's a solid individual.

I personally wish we had a coach who would run sets with Russ off the ball. With his energy he would run opponents ragged if he was in motion all game. If teams had to account for him while he ran past screens and we had a smooth passing Big who he trusted to deliver him the ball, we could run a reverse Pick and Roll with the Big taking the dribble hand off on a give and go as Russ cuts to the lane to catch the pass and finish. This is why I look at Neemias Queta as a nice passing Big. If Russ and Beal were both in motion, then no team would know who to guard at any given time. They couldn't just pack the lane and dare Russ to jack one up from long. If he knew he was going to get the ball back, and have easier finishes, maybe he would willingly give up some of his dribble time.

Outside shooters of course, especially if they add defense. True 3 and D like Bruce Bowen who set the model in San Antonio. If we had rugged defenders I think Russ' toughness and activity would inspire players to intimidate on this end. And maybe give Russ energy here as well. On defense he often ballhawks and cheats off his man to fight for rebounds instead, so you need long wing defenders who can cover for the holes he leaves when he is essentially playing power forward from the PG position.

So, yeah. You basically just need to build a good team. Strong at both ends, skilled and tough. From the coach to the last guy on the bench. I do think Russ may be willing to take a mentor role as his career extends. Veterans do learn over time. He seems to have embraced a teaching role here. He would just have to respect the coach we get, and have players who could make him look good by finishing his passes with points. If Russ is going to have the ball and dribble, still, you can develop offenses that give him passing targets by getting open, or clear lanes for him to attack the thing. But that is coaching and an innovative mind. Consider that he has had Brooks as a coach for most of his career. Donovan showed up and adjusted everything around him, turning him into the MVP. I think you CAN build a team around him. You just need what every other team needs: savvy competitive and efficient players that turn his mistakes into successes, and a coach who sets the team up to do that.

I dunno doc. I think every team that has had Westbrook has tried to do the same thing, but it hasn't really worked yet, at least not since he lost the ability to finish in the lane with reasonable efficiency.

I don't see Westbrook as being that useful off the ball. His man does not need to stick with him as he runs around screens, he can just stay in the paint and just keep an eye on Russ in case he dives to the rim (or sets a back pick for a teammate to dives to the rim).

The best way for Westbrook to help the team is for him to improve his catch-and-shoot 3-point shot. He has actually been half-decent at this this year, shooting 35.3%. (Last year, he shot 29.1% and the year before 32.1%) If he can get that up to 37% or so, it will make a massive difference because teams will need to respect him off the ball, which will open things up for everyone else.

I'd like to see him become more like late-career Jason Kidd. Play D, get rebounds, run a few pick-and-rolls but keep the usage rate down. His ability to create a pull-up shot at a roughly 38% FG% whenever he wants can be used at the end of the shot clock. We should try and run a San-Antonio type offense with Russ being our Tony Parker bail-out option if the offensive set didn't get us a good shot in the first 20 seconds of the shot clock.

Also this season, Russell Westbrook is shooting 36.7% on wide open 3s. Last season he shot in the 34% range. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender/?CloseDefDistRange=6%2B%20Feet%20-%20Wide%20Open&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1

[9 and 20]

I think everyone would love for Westbrook to reinvent himself as late-career Jason Kidd. Kidd shot over 40% from 3 for a couple of years towards the end - https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html.

The other possibility would be the Iverson career trajectory - he just plays the same way until age forces him not to anymore, and he retires.

Westbrook seems both very smart and strong willed, so I guess we'll see which way it goes.

[Kanyewest]

Jason Kidd made 4 all defensive 1st teams and 5 all defensive 2nd teams (one when he was older than Westbrook). I don't see Westbrook transforming himself into a good defender at this stage of his career.

[Dat2U]

We are equating Jaylen Brown and Ben Simmons to a top 4 pick? Not me.

If I can't get a top 4 pick... Ben Simmons, Michael Porter Jr & Jaylen Brown plus additional assets become intriguing.

I'd rather have a known quantity than 7-8 shots at drafting one over a 8 yr span.