Re: The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2024 10:05 pm
Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.
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NatP4 wrote:Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.
nate33 wrote:pancakes3 wrote:I think our squad is markedly more talented than the other bottom dwellers like Portland, Detroit, Toronto, and Brooklyn. Charlotte was bad too but that's due to Lamelo being injured; they've got talent on their roster.
We were sunk by Poole playing historically awful, and also playing a bunch of guys major minutes that have no business getting major minutes (Johnny Davis, Muscala, Anthony Gill, Omoruyi, Champagnie).
Next season, we have a decent roster that in my estimation is comparable to Orlando/Atlanta, which is good enough for late lottery picks but also play-in competitive. And the east is soft enough that even if we drew a Knicks or Cavs, it'd be a 7 game series.
But that fits my personal expectations for the Wizards - to be marginally competitive. Cooper Flagg would be great, but I don't think we'll be in the running unless Poole inexplicably has another historically terrible 55-game run, and we decide to give 10+mpg to a bunch of 2-way contract guys again.
Sorry, but you are totally wrong on this. Yes, Poole was a trainwreck for most of the year, but that alone doesn't turn a 36-win team into a 15-win team.
This team is NOT good. Our starting center is a guy who couldn't get minutes on freaking Detroit. Our backup center is a guy who only managed to play 237 minutes in Dallas, a team with only one true center - a rookie. Coulibaly is an extremely inefficient player despite extremely low usage. His on/off on the second worst team in the league was -4.4. He has a long way to go. Kispert is a nice backup who would start on maybe 6 or 7 teams in the league. Poole wouldn't start on more than a handful of teams either. The only guys on our roster who would start on 75% of the teams in the NBA are Kuzma and Deni. Deni would be the third or fourth best player on most teams. Kuzma, the fourth or fifth. We have nobody on our roster who would be a top 2 player on a .500 team.
This team is going to stink next year. Maybe they'll be a bit better than 15 wins, but I wouldn't expect more than 24 or so. The league has gotten really good.
Look at it this way. How many teams in the NBA are worse than us next year? I can't confidently name a single team. I think Portland will probably finish with a worse record because they play in the West, but they have more talent than us. Detroit has more talent than us too, though they have terrible coaching. So maybe we beat Portland and Detroit. Probably one more kinda bad team has a bunch of injuries and finishes below us too. But that's about it. There's no way we finish better than the 4th worst record in the league.
nate33 wrote:NatP4 wrote:Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.
An ORtg of 103 is horrific in a league that averages 115.
Out of the 266 guys who played 1000 or more minutes, only 9 had a worse ORtg than Coulibaly. His TS% of .543 is bad enough, but then factor the 2.4 turnovers on extremely low usage and you can't conclude that he was anything but awful on offense.
Don't get me wrong. He was excellent on defense and showed enough flashes on offense relative to his age that I'm not at all worried. I'm just saying that, right now, he is a terrible offensive player. There's no denying it.
NatP4 wrote:nate33 wrote:NatP4 wrote:Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.
An ORtg of 103 is horrific in a league that averages 115.
Out of the 266 guys who played 1000 or more minutes, only 9 had a worse ORtg than Coulibaly. His TS% of .543 is bad enough, but then factor the 2.4 turnovers on extremely low usage and you can't conclude that he was anything but awful on offense.
Don't get me wrong. He was excellent on defense and showed enough flashes on offense relative to his age that I'm not at all worried. I'm just saying that, right now, he is a terrible offensive player. There's no denying it.
Measuring 19 year old rookies on tanking teams by offensive rating. Give me a break.
Scoot Henderson posted a 97 offensive rating. Your favorite player, Jaden Ivey posted a 103 and 104 offensive rating last year and this year. Cade Cunningham posted a 96 offensive rating and 50% TS in his rookie season and 100 offensive rating and 49% TS last year.
AFM wrote:How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like
NatP4 wrote:I don’t know what Risacher has to do with Topic. I simply corrected you posting incorrect information, which you just did again when you said “Risacher has played well in Euroleague play”.]
I agree.AFM wrote:How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like
doclinkin wrote:If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I agree.AFM wrote:How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like
How can you be certain the Wizards won't draft like OKC did 2 years ago? When they drafted SGA, where was he selected? Where did he go in the draft? This year's SGA might be Castle.
If the Wizards draft Castle and Sears, how can you be certain they don't begin a marked turnaround?
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DCZards wrote:doclinkin wrote:If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?
You break out in a big sh*t-eating grin and draft Rob Dillingham. Why? Because he’s one of the top 2 or 3 players in this draft.
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:I'm sorry I don't want to draft a 6 ft PG or a 6-2 SG with a top 5 pick. Positional size does matter in today's NBA.
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:The more I look at these prospects the less I like. Most drafts its the opposite. I'm not at all sold on Risacher or Sarr. I have a hard time taking an offensively challenged big man like Sarr or Clingan with a top 5 pick. Sarr is not the physically dominating big he perceives to be. Clingan has foot issues which is never a good sign. Topic is not a top 10 talent IMO, although compared to Johnny Davis maybe he is.
With a top 5 pick, I want a versatile wing with size, length, skill, athleticism and upside...
The player I like, to hell with the mocks and experts.... is Kyshawn George.
nate33 wrote:SUPERBALLMAN wrote:The more I look at these prospects the less I like. Most drafts its the opposite. I'm not at all sold on Risacher or Sarr. I have a hard time taking an offensively challenged big man like Sarr or Clingan with a top 5 pick. Sarr is not the physically dominating big he perceives to be. Clingan has foot issues which is never a good sign. Topic is not a top 10 talent IMO, although compared to Johnny Davis maybe he is.
With a top 5 pick, I want a versatile wing with size, length, skill, athleticism and upside...
The player I like, to hell with the mocks and experts.... is Kyshawn George.
George is an interesting prospect. He is very long, I'm guessing at least a 6-11 wingspan to go with that 6-8 height. He has a pretty tight handle and the ability to make plays off the bounce, but he has no explosion whatsoever and never seems to jump, either when shooting or finishing at the rim. Because of that lack of explosion, I don't see him taking on any kind of playmaking or on-ball shot creation role in the NBA. He just won't get the necessary separation. You can see it in the stats in that he attempts virtually no free throws at all. But it looks like he has the instincts and b-ball IQ to be a good connector on offense.
He reminds me a bit of Nicholas Batum crossed with a bit of Talen Horton-Tucker. He needs to get stronger and develop more of a big man's mindset, though. His NBA role is as a sharp-shooting 4 like Rui Hachimura, not a big PG.
It wouldn't surprise me if he panned out as an NBA starter, but probably only a 4th or 5th starter. I don't see the upside to draft him in the lottery, but he'd be a fine pick in the teens and definitely someone to look at if he is still on the board at #26.
doclinkin wrote:NatP4 wrote:I don’t know what Risacher has to do with Topic. I simply corrected you posting incorrect information, which you just did again when you said “Risacher has played well in Euroleague play”.]
Tell that to the 17 year old Risacher, who shot 39% from 3, and 58% from 2 in EuroLEAGUE play in 18 games with ASVEL in 13 mins a game. Since you like to rely so heavily on a player's high school numbers to predict the future.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/teams/villeurbanne/2023.html
Not what I meant, so I don't mind the correction. But the facts actually bore out my error. Which amuses me. Enjoying the irony.
But sure
I'll happily connect the dots on why to compare Risacher and Topic.
Both are basketball players.
Both are in the same draft.
Both are likely to be picked in the lotto.
We have one draft pick in the lotto.
That means if we want one, we have to decide which is better than the other.
Or more likely to succeed at the NBA level.
That means we should rank them.
You like Topic better.
I like Risacher better.
You told us to keep in mind that Topic played in a pro league with many former high level NCAA guys.
I kept that in mind.
Then looked it up.
He didn't.
For comparison's sake I cited Risacher's performance in a similar overseas league.
Turns out his competition was tougher.
Statistically, Topic was dominant. Though in a lesser league.
Whereas Risacher played a useful role, but against better competition.
The question in ranking them is: which guy's skill set is more likely to translate?
If both guys are available and other players we like are not. Which guy do you pick and why?
If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?
I say um, trade down for Kel'El Ware. Or let someone trade up for Topic and we take Knecht. Take a long hard look at Buzelis.
But if the FO is determined to pick one of the two Euros. I'm saying I think Risacher's skill set translates better and quicker to an NBA team. And he never seems disinterested on Defense.