2025 Draft Thread

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

With the draft lottery coming up, we have a good shot at Cooper Flagg. But theres a chance we fall to 2 or 3.
Personally, I wouldnt mind Dylan Harper, but then we have a glut with Smart, AJ Johnson, Kispert, JPoole, and Bub.

Just wanted to see thoughts on reasonable Plan B's if we miss on Coop. Do we trade the pick? Take the best player available?
Make any other moves?

??!?!?!
There's like a 6 in 7 chance we do not get Flagg, and only a what 40% chance we land a top 3 pick.

The Flagg Pick: 14%
A top 2 pick (clearly there's a top 2 tier, then a 2-3 player 3rd tier): 27% (touch more than 1 in 4 chance)

A top 3 pick: About 40%

A top 4 pick: About 52%

A top 5 pick: About 80%

The nightmare 6th pick: 20%, there's a better chance of getting the horror show 6th pick than any other individual pick other than 5.

So, the reality is, it is highly, highly likely, we are not getting Flagg.

If you want to do prep and learn about the guys in our zone, take a look at the top 6 who include Flagg, Harper, Edgecombe, Bailey, and a wide difference of opinion on whom should go 5 or 6 (Maluach, Tre Johnson, Kon K, Jakucionsis, Queen etc). Wide aggregated agreement falls off around slot 5.

Wizards fan reality check:

0.20 > 0.14

Twenty percent is greater than fourteen percent. There's a (significantly) greater possibility that the Wizards select sixth than that they select first.

The most likely outcome is all the tanking will result in the fifth pick.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The good news is that the third best player in the draft (Queen) is not projected to go third.

The good news is that the third best player in the draft (Queen) is not projected to go third.

If the Wizards get the fifth or sixth pick, I bet they won't get the obvious right.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Zero homerism on my part, I have zero interest in or affection for UMD. So it will be a genius take, like most of my posts on real gm dot com.

edit - I do have an affinity for Baltimore so maybe I am a little biased. But no, tontoz, I'm not trolling. Not any more than CCJ is.

Not trolling.

Queen is like my very own fat kid in a skinny world.

[nate33]

I thought of a good comp for Derik Queen: Jahill Okafor.



Okafor was significantly more efficient as a shooter and pretty equivalent across the board in other metrics, only he was a year younger and an inch taller. So, objectively speaking, Okafor looked like a substantially better prospect. And yet, he amounted to nothing in the NBA because the NBA rejects centers who don't protect the rim.

Paul Harvey would say, "Now for the rest of the story:"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahlil_Okafor

On June 25, 2015, Okafor was selected with the third overall pick in the 2015 NBA draft by the Philadelphia 76ers.[131] After debuting with a 20-point NBA Summer League performance on July 6, Okafor signed a two-year contract with the 76ers on July 7, with team options for two additional seasons.[132][133] He debuted for the 76ers, logging 26 points, seven rebounds and two blocks, against the Boston Celtics on October 28.[134][135][136] On November 9, he posted his first career double-double with 21 points and 15 rebounds against his hometown Chicago Bulls.[137]

After the 76ers got off to an 0–16 start to the season, Okafor was involved in a street fight with taunting individuals on November 25 in Boston.[138] On November 30, with additional reports surfacing that Okafor had been involved in various controversial and dangerous off-the-court situations, the 76ers agreed to a request to assign a security guard to accompany Okafor in public.
[/Quote ]

Okafor had character and off-the-court issues.

JO began his career first-team All-Rookie and averaged 17 and 7 on over .500FG. Then he effed up off the court. Repeatedly.

He only signed a 2-year rookie deal. Boston got rid of a problematic player.

Queen won't have a similar negative career.

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center. Your center is involved in over half of all defensive possessions. If he is a below average defender, it virtually guarantees that your team is a below average defensive team. Good offensive production isn't enough to offset the bad negative production because it's extremely hard to involve your center in over half of all offensive possessions. With zone defensive principles permitted, it's just too easy for teams to deny the center the ball.

[payitforward]

Okafor had a bad case of don't-give-ashit-itis. Never a question of basketball talent with him. He had plenty of talent.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Was Chris Webber ever a C? Was Juwan Howard?

With Queen on the Wizards, would Sarr be a C, or would that change

Queen is 20.
Sarr is 19.

Webber was 22-23 (as a second-year acquisition from GSW)
Howard was 22-23 (when the Wizards drafted him)

Derik Queen will get stronger. He plays a lot like Webber on offense.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Okafor had a bad case of don't-give-ashit-itis. Never a question of basketball talent with him. He had plenty of talent.

Yep.

Some guys are just happy to get paid.

[doclinkin]

Zero homerism on my part, I have zero interest in or affection for UMD. So it will be a genius take, like most of my posts on real gm dot com.

edit - I do have an affinity for Baltimore so maybe I am a little biased. But no, tontoz, I'm not trolling. Not any more than CCJ is.

Not trolling.

Queen is like my very own fat kid in a skinny world.

He's like created in a lab to be the ideal CCJ fan crush. Chubby kid playing high level basketball for Maryland. FROM Maryland. And he has doubters. If he were a February Aquarius that would be it. There would be no other player in the CCJ Hall of Fame. But alas, no, late December Capricorn. Oh but there's this:

On December 27, 2004, the Earth was hit by a powerful cosmic blast from the magnetar SGR 1806-20, causing partial ionization of the upper atmosphere, a ringing effect in Earth's magnetic field, and temporary blindness of several satellites.
A giant flare, or "star quake," erupted from the magnetar SGR 1806-20, a highly magnetized neutron star.
The blast released an immense amount of energy, equivalent to the Sun's energy output over 250,000 years, in just 200 milliseconds.
The radiation from the explosion reached Earth, the blast partially ionized the Earth's upper atmosphere, made the Earth's magnetic field ring like a bell, and blinded several satellites.

And thus was born the Starquake baby Derik Queen. Damn. What an origin story.

[willbcocks]

Is Clayton drunk out there? I like Haugh for Florida; I don't think he'll declare this year and probably would t be drafted, but would be interesting as a late 2nd.

[dobrojim]

On the upside, he could have the impact of multiple-time DPOY Dikembe.

Deke averaged over twice as many stocks per 40 as Maluach in college.

Good to keep in mind but in his defense, Maluach is
much younger and less experienced than Dikembe
was when he got to the NBA. It's all about how they
project him in 2-4 years. We have to be careful how
good we are next year. Limited experience so far.
Might take him longer.

[GatherStepGuru]

moving here...

...after the top 2 ... if we drop, see if we can swap with CHA for someone like Mark Williams and their pick for Sarr and our pick.

That's an original & interesting idea. But...

...you are trading Sarr (a #2 pick) & a higher pick in '25 for Mark Williams & a lower pick in '25 -- meaning that you are valuing Mark Williams well above Alex Sarr.

Is that accurate?

Any thoughts, anyone?

Maybe not Mark Williams… Maybe a Kel’el Ware type, but I don’t see one in this draft. As I’ve said before, I don’t think poorly of Sarr, but I don’t see the “dawg” in him that I’d like to see in a center… Maybe the Wiz need to get his older brother or something, or maybe it’s just too early, but I don’t see the grit/competitive nature. Post skills come with time, but idk how you teach grit.

[gesa2]

I thought of a good comp for Derik Queen: Jahill Okafor.



Okafor was significantly more efficient as a shooter and pretty equivalent across the board in other metrics, only he was a year younger and an inch taller. So, objectively speaking, Okafor looked like a substantially better prospect. And yet, he amounted to nothing in the NBA because the NBA rejects centers who don't protect the rim.

Paul Harvey would say, "Now for the rest of the story:"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahlil_Okafor

On June 25, 2015, Okafor was selected with the third overall pick in the 2015 NBA draft by the Philadelphia 76ers.[131] After debuting with a 20-point NBA Summer League performance on July 6, Okafor signed a two-year contract with the 76ers on July 7, with team options for two additional seasons.[132][133] He debuted for the 76ers, logging 26 points, seven rebounds and two blocks, against the Boston Celtics on October 28.[134][135][136] On November 9, he posted his first career double-double with 21 points and 15 rebounds against his hometown Chicago Bulls.[137]

After the 76ers got off to an 0–16 start to the season, Okafor was involved in a street fight with taunting individuals on November 25 in Boston.[138] On November 30, with additional reports surfacing that Okafor had been involved in various controversial and dangerous off-the-court situations, the 76ers agreed to a request to assign a security guard to accompany Okafor in public.
[/Quote ]

Okafor had character and off-the-court issues.

JO began his career first-team All-Rookie and averaged 17 and 7 on over .500FG. Then he effed up off the court. Repeatedly.

He only signed a 2-year rookie deal. Boston got rid of a problematic player.

Queen won't have a similar negative career.

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center. Your center is involved in over half of all defensive possessions. If he is a below average defender, it virtually guarantees that your team is a below average defensive team. Good offensive production isn't enough to offset the bad negative production because it's extremely hard to involve your center in over half of all offensive possessions. With zone defensive principles permitted, it's just too easy for teams to deny the center the ball.

…
Unless you’re Nikola Jokic. Exception that proves the rule

[TheBlackCzar]

Paul Harvey would say, "Now for the rest of the story:"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahlil_Okafor

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center. Your center is involved in over half of all defensive possessions. If he is a below average defender, it virtually guarantees that your team is a below average defensive team. Good offensive production isn't enough to offset the bad negative production because it's extremely hard to involve your center in over half of all offensive possessions. With zone defensive principles permitted, it's just too easy for teams to deny the center the ball.

…
Unless you’re Nikola Jokic. Exception that proves the rule

I believe he's top 4 in steals... And I'm sure you'll tell me they aren't indicative of a good defender, but how many bigs ever do what he's doing now?

[Dat2U]

Was Chris Webber ever a C? Was Juwan Howard?

With Queen on the Wizards, would Sarr be a C, or would that change

Queen is 20.
Sarr is 19.

Webber was 22-23 (as a second-year acquisition from GSW)
Howard was 22-23 (when the Wizards drafted him)

Derik Queen will get stronger. He plays a lot like Webber on offense.

Webber would be a 5 in today's game. Howard who masqueraded as a 3 would be a 4 and shooting 3s.

The PF position as we knew it doesn't exist anymore. Yestersday's 4s are today's 5s. Yesterday's 3s are today's 4s. A guy who's a throwback 4 is probably in the NBL or similar foreign league nowadays.

Queen is a 5 in this era. I don't think he's a terrible defender like Okafor was but he has extended moments where he's not fully engaged defensively. It's sorta like Jokic. At times he can look invested, moves well for his size and can be in the right place at the right time, other times he's a day late and a dollar short. With Jokic, the greatest offensive center in history, Denver still struggles to contend when he's not exerting extreme effort defensively. He can put up 30 & 20 with 10 assists and they still lose because he is not moving is feet on defense leading to the team defense breaking down every rime there are multiple passes leading to either a wide open layup or wide open 3.

This is my consternation with Queen. He could be all NBA level good offensively but based on his defensive responsibilities, he has to be just as good defensively for the offensive impact to be fully valued. Having an elite defensive PF next to him helps, but long term success is still dependent on high level defensive quarterbacking from the C position.

[nate33]

Was Chris Webber ever a C? Was Juwan Howard?

With Queen on the Wizards, would Sarr be a C, or would that change

Queen is 20.
Sarr is 19.

Webber was 22-23 (as a second-year acquisition from GSW)
Howard was 22-23 (when the Wizards drafted him)

Derik Queen will get stronger. He plays a lot like Webber on offense.

People keep throwing out the idea that playing Sarr as a rim-protecting forward can compensate for a non-rim-protecting center. It doesn't work that way. It's not so much about protecting the rim, it's about every player on the floor being able to defend the pick-and-roll. You defend the pick-and-roll either by switching or by being tall and long enough to play drop coverage with the ability to deter both the ball-handler and the roll man. Queen can do neither, so teams will put him in the pick-and-roll ruthlessly every play and eat him alive. And there's nothing Sarr can do about it because Sarr will probably be stuck in the corner guarding a catch-and-shoot guy

[nate33]

Paul Harvey would say, "Now for the rest of the story:"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahlil_Okafor

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center. Your center is involved in over half of all defensive possessions. If he is a below average defender, it virtually guarantees that your team is a below average defensive team. Good offensive production isn't enough to offset the bad negative production because it's extremely hard to involve your center in over half of all offensive possessions. With zone defensive principles permitted, it's just too easy for teams to deny the center the ball.

…
Unless you’re Nikola Jokic. Exception that proves the rule

Do you think Queen is going to be the best offensive player of all time like Jokic?

[Rafael122]

Malauch shot 76% from the line so there is potential there for him to be more than just a pick and roll, rim running, defensive big. If you unlock his shooting, you probably have one of the best centers in the NBA. I'm completely fine with any of Flagg/Harper/Bailey/Malauch/VJ. Those are probably my top 5 in that order.

I think mine too. But when it comes to upside and potential, I wonder if the order isn't:

Maluach. Literally nobody in the league as big and athletic. Look at him in the footage making Embiid look short. Shooting a three over Unibrow. Plus he's smart? And wants to hit first?

Flagg. Too smart to be this young. Too much drive and BBIQ. Does that make him an early developing prodigy? Or is there constant upside in his rage to win. He will get better every year if his body holds up.

Ace. I get the tunnel focus questions. But few players have the length, athleticism, and natural grace, plus he loves the game. Loves playing 2-way ball. I think his body gets stronger. He's a baby out there, looks skinny but has room to build that predator strength. The Scottie Pippen sort of strength. Rangy muscle.

Edge. Instinctive athleticism and quick twitch reflexes that are matched or exceeded only by the Thompson twins, Shaedon Sharpe, Antman. He's smaller than the above, he's something like a bargain Russell Westbrook in his potential. With a skills coach and game reps he will only get better.

Harper. Born to the game. Strong. Instant veteran. Needs a jumpshot, but his wily game sense exceeds his pure athleticism which lets him get loose inside, has that James Harden thing where it doesn't matter that his footspeed won't blow past you. You just wonder if he will have to make some adjustments to do what he does at the next level.

One of my biggest things is looking for the "freak" trait in a player. Sarr has it IMO, so does Bilal. I think AJ may have it as well as he gets more reps. George and Bub I think are going to round into solid pros/rotational pieces but I'm a little less harsh on them because of where they were picked. At that point you're just throwing stuff at the wall.

Out of the 5 we discussed, I think Maluach has that freak trait so that's why I'm gravitating towards him. I believe it was the Ringer who said his standing reach is an inch taller than Wemby, and an inch shorter than Gobert. He's going to kill the measurements at the combine. This is all assuming we fall out of like the top 3 for example. Obviously I want Flagg, or Harper, but if we're pick 4th...Maluach is my guy.

[Rafael122]

BR's latest mock: Harper at 2, Traore at 19 (Memphis pick). Sorber got picked at 22 by the Jazz.

[DCZards]

The thing that excites me most about the Zards possibly drafting Maluach is something that doc keeps reminding us—he’s only been playing basketball for 3 years.

He’s basically a baby when it comes to bball experience, especially compared to other top college players who’ve likely been playing organized ball for 10 yrs. or more.

Maluach has a ton of room for improvement when it comes to learning how to play the game…and that bodes extremely well.

I’d be fine with him if we’re picking in the 4-6 range.

[AFM]

Guys being deported and you fellas are thinking of blowing a pick on him. Maybe he can FaceTime into the starting 5.