Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part V

[keynote]

I don't think Zeller is a center on defense. Not with a standing reach of just 8'10". I'm sure he can steal some minutes at center from time to time, but I don't think he's a starting-caliber, full time center. I see him as a starting PF who might slide to center in crunch time when teams tend to go small.

Agreed. I think Zeller should be quick enough to play the 4, and I won't be as concerned about his relative lack of strength when matched up there. Uber-quick 4s like Melo or LeBron will give him trouble, but teams that play quick 4s tend to have less dynamic SFs. In those instances, you pull a Indiana and stick Zeller on the Shumpert/Battier type. And, of course, Zeller should be able to match up with small-lineup 5s like Bosh.

[Dark Faze]

I don't care about standing reach for 7 footers. Strength, lateral quickness and just flat out B-Ball IQ is what is going to determine defense. At that height having long arms is kind of irrelevant.

[JAR69]

But in a normal draft does he get taken in the late lottery/teens or is he a late 1st who gets picked in the Mullens range?

Good question.

Mullens was drafted 21st purely on his physical profile. He was terrible as a freshman at OSU and barely played. I think, when the dust settles, Adams is pretty sure to go in the lottery. He has a great physical profile, and was at least a solid player as a freshman, even if he didn't dominate. Also, Adams at least as the physicality to play the position. He's not afraid to mix it up. Mullens is a wanna be small forward allergic to contact.

I don't know if I can be convinced to take Adams at #3, but WizD's argument definitely has me willing to trade our 2014 draft pick plus cash and our 2nd rounder to buy the Dallas pick and take him at #13.

Normally, I'm against weighing a player's physical profile so much more heavily than his actual college production, but you can make a case that it's appropriate to do so when you're talking about centers. The universe of qualified applicants for the position is so small that if you just meet the physical criteria while having a modicum of coordination, you're pretty much a sure bet to have a quality career.

This is similar to a plan RockyMac proposed and I seconded a few days ago over in the trade thread. I don't know if we would need to include the 2nd rounder and cash, and the 2014 would need to be top 10 or so protected, but I would do it if it meant getting Adams. In addition to WizD's analysis, I watched him at the combine and came away pretty impressed with his jump shot. Not the prettiest, and a low release, but it went in consistently from the elbow. But I agree that he is not likely to be there at 13 - Ernie should be on the phone with the teams above the Thunder (Philly, Portland, Minn., Detroit) to see about a trade for the 2014 pick.

I'm also happy to hear Zeller is hitting from outside. Again, not a surprise considering his form and FT%, but a good sign. With his size and skill level, he will get a lot of open looks from the corner and be able to drive past defenders trying to close out. If he can hit 3s at the league average (35-36%), that would be quite a lineup to field with Wall/Beal/Webster or Ariza/Zeller/Nene or Okafor.

[WizarDynasty]

America with its 290 million people don't produce human being with this type of genetic profile. He is the equivalent of Shaq. How often in the draft does a 300 pounder with a 34 inch vertical come around.

Um. Adams weighs 255 pounds. He has a standing vertical of 28.5" and a max vertical of 33".

You bring up a fair point about his uniqueness though. Here's a list of big men 250 or more with a 28" standing vertical or more with a standing reach of at least 9'-1" or more:

Shaquille O'Neal
Greg Oden
Eddy Curry
B.J. Mullens
Emeka Okafor
Jeremy Tyler
Al Jefferson
Fab Melo
Andre Drummond
Nene Hilario
Chris Taft
Ike Diogu

Interesting that we already have two of them on our roster. Also, looking at that list, it doesn't seem to be filled with superstars.

I think the 250 pound weight cutoff is too high, and ends up weeding out the guys who went pro at a young age before they packed on more weight. Drop that threshold to 240 and you add Zo, Howard and Favors to the list (plus a few scrubs). Add an agility threshold of 11.9 or lower and you end up with a pretty good list of prospects, with most of the scrubs weeded out. Here's a screen of players with standing verticals of 28" or more, weight of 240 or more, standing reach of 9-1 or more and lane agility of 11.9 or less:

Shaquille ONeal
Alonzo Mourning
Greg Oden
Dwight Howard
B.J. Mullens
Jeremy Tyler
Derrick Favors
Andre Drummond
Nene Hilario
Chris Taft
Stephen Adams

That's 10 guys on the list not including Adams. (I'm assuming Shaq and Zo meet the lane agility threshold.) Of those 10, 3 are HOFers, 3 more are/will be high quality bigs for 8-10 years, 1 had a promising career ruined by injury, 1 is a bench scrub, and 2 are duds that didn't stick around in the league. Interestingly, the scrub (Mullens) was picked 21st and the duds (Taft and Tyler) were picked in the 2nd round so clearly there were well known problems with their game. Essentially, all of the freak physical specimens who were picked in the lottery ended up being excellent NBA players whom any team would have been happy to take with a #3 overall pick.

That's a pretty powerful argument to take Adams. If not at #3, trade up to the Dallas pick and take him then.

EDIT: My guess is that Tim Duncan would make both lists, but there are no recorded standing reach, jumping or agility measurements for him.

ok so factor in which of those on your list had a reputation for having a high motor, dominant rebounders and not having injury concerns before coming into the nba, an being endorsed by a pro basketball player for his high basketball iq. and over 7'4 wingspan. the most important is high motor and demonstrated rebounding ability.
when you add those criteria in then things start to clear up.

[nuposse04]

If Porter and Noel are gone ahead of us, I'm open to the concept of moving down 2-3 spots and taking a chance on Zeller if he is legit option from beyond the arc (Legit being 37%+)

I'm still of the mind that Porter can gain 20-30 lbs and give you spot minutes at small ball as a stretch 4 though.

[jivelikenice]

If Porter and Noel are gone ahead of us, I'm open to the concept of moving down 2-3 spots and taking a chance on Zeller if he is legit option from beyond the arc (Legit being 37%+)

I'm still of the mind that Porter can gain 20-30 lbs and give you spot minutes at small ball as a stretch 4 though.

20-30 lbs might be a lot, but I think he can put on some weight as he gets older and agree he could give us an interesting small ball look. Does anyone know how many reps Tayshaun was able to do when he came out? Porter put up 8 or 9 reps which isn't all that bad for a guy with his frame.

[fishercob]

Kyle with some nice perspective about all the workout reports we'll hear in the coming weeks...

Ah yes, I remember that well. There was a groundswell of Luke Babbitt love around here a few drafts ago that I wanted no part of, lol.

Guilty as charged.

Babbitt shot well in the D-League FWIW. 20 Pts, 7.5 Rebs and 25.0 PER. (24 Pts, 9 Rebs per-36 minutes)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/nbd ... lu01d.html

I still think he and Almond can play.

Me too! My name is Fish, and I was a Luke Babbitt fan. The first step is admitting you have a problem.

[nate33]

If Porter and Noel are gone ahead of us, I'm open to the concept of moving down 2-3 spots and taking a chance on Zeller if he is legit option from beyond the arc (Legit being 37%+)

I'm still of the mind that Porter can gain 20-30 lbs and give you spot minutes at small ball as a stretch 4 though.

The more I think about it, the more I like Zeller. If he really can hit three's that changes everything. He would be a perfect fit on our roster as a PF who can defend well and hit from the perimeter, while also having good touch around the basket and a high bball IQ. The only hole on the roster would be our lack of depth at the PG position. If we could somehow trade Seraphin for a decent young combo guard, it would all come together nicely. What about Seraphin for a guy like Jerryd Bayless? The salaries line up:

PG Wall/Bayless
SG Beal/Bayless
SF Webster/Ariza
PF Nene/Zeller/Booker
C Okafor/Nene

[The Consiglieri]

See, this list doesn't scare me at all. It's pretty much exactly like you'd expect a random collection of 19 NBA players to be, if not much better. If we drafted Bennett at 3, I'd be more than pleased if he ended up being the equivalent skills-wise of Faried, LeBron, Millsap, Melo, or perhaps MKG. Then there's a handful of respectable role players, as well as a number of nobody's, including true busts and also guys who were never expected to do anything in the NBA. So why is this list supposed to make me think that Bennett isn't likely to succeed at the NBA level based on his size, or lack thereof?

I don't think Bennett has the type of lateral quickness to legitimately cover SF's in this league so he has to be compared to PF's. So let's throw out Lebron and Kidd-Gilchrist. That leaves 16 comparisons (Damion James is listed twice).

Superstars:
Carmelo Anthony

Starters:
Paul Millsap
Kenneth Faried

Role Players:
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Dejuan Blair
Al Thornton

Journeyman/Out-of-League
Lonny Baxter
Mike Sweetney
Joey Dorsey
Damion James
James Johnson
Draymond Green
Ryan Humphrey
Royce White
Kevin Jones
Ryan Gomes

I'd say the comparisons for Bennett's particular body type aren't that encouraging. 10 of the 16 guys are no better than vet-minimum type of role players. That said, I think it's important to acknowledge that Bennett is clearly more skilled than all those guys on the "Journeyman" list. Looking at his skill level, it would appear that he compares more to the "Starters" group which includes Millsap and Faried. I think he has a pretty good shot at rivaling them. The next question to ask is do we think the next Millsap/Faried is worth the #3? Those guys feel like players that should be drafted in the 6-12 range, not the top 3.

Interesting comparison, but considering Porter's comps, projected ceiling, and floor, I have a hard time seeing him considered a top 8 guy, let alone top 5. Of course this is an unusally bad draft when it comes to elite rated prospects. Probably the weakest I've seen in that regard since 2000 (which definitely was a vastly inferior draft at least in terms of depth at the time of the draft).

[The Consiglieri]

I don't think you can dismiss guys like Draymond Green and Blair when you compare them to Bennett. They all have similar body types. I think Draymond and Blair were more physical and were definitely better rebounders in college than Bennett. They also had better defensive reputations. Both are roleplayers in the NBA.

Bennetts offense is better but I'm concerned that he's just not versatile enough to have that translate to the NBA. I question whether his shooting will transition to the NBA because the FT percentage isn't where it should be for an elite shooter. draymond shot 36% and 39% his last two years in college on many more attempts and the efficiency didnt' translate to the NBA.

My fear is that Bennett will shoot worse than he did in college, be a below average defender and not be able to be physically dominant against NBA 4's and 5's. Under that circumstance his floor could be terribly low.

I would argue that the scouting consensus was and is that Green and Blair were nowhere remotely near Bennett as a prospect. The highest I ever saw Green in any scouting write up was generally around 22-24, and Blair was a 2nd rounder because his knees put him on many Do Not Draft lists, to not even mention other issues scouts had with him.

Who knows, he may develop that way, but scouts, just about all scouts, disagree completely with that kind of comp.

[closg00]

Who are the best SG/SF prospects we have a shot at getting at pick 37? Someone is going to drop.

I fully expect that we will take Porter if he is there, but who-knows.

[nuposse04]

If Porter and Noel are gone ahead of us, I'm open to the concept of moving down 2-3 spots and taking a chance on Zeller if he is legit option from beyond the arc (Legit being 37%+)

I'm still of the mind that Porter can gain 20-30 lbs and give you spot minutes at small ball as a stretch 4 though.

20-30 lbs might be a lot, but I think he can put on some weight as he gets older and agree he could give us an interesting small ball look. Does anyone know how many reps Tayshaun was able to do when he came out? Porter put up 8 or 9 reps which isn't all that bad for a guy with his frame.

I don't think 20 lbs would be asking too much. He was playing at 205 I think at Georgetown. I think 10 lbs in his first year so he can get up to 215 is perfectly reasonable, and quite honestly a bit expected. Isn't he only 19 still? (Technically, just looked it up, June 3rd is his B-day )

I think most guys fill out as much as they're going to by 23. Unless you're Wade or LBJ....Cough** PEDs**Cough..

[hands11]

Len is a gymnast. His body only recent began banging against humans who were stronger than himself. His bone structure is set. IF Len was ten years old and still had alot of growing to do and we forced him to push the strongest kid in school out of the paint for an hour each day, his bone density and muscle structure would much much different than what we see now. It's way to late for len's bones to reset and for his muscle distribution to redesign. His joints are set for high impact from jumps but he is like a fish out of water when attempting to use lower body strength and move mass using his lower body. When he attempts to do this, his body gets injured because his joints during his growth spurt repaired themselves from high impact from jumps off a balance beam, not from applying 1000 pounds of pressure on one ankle joint moving his body mass and plus another 260lb body mass pushing back on that one joint.

Had Len's joint experienced these shock forces at a young age, his body would have molded into a killing machine for this particular task 10 years later as it fully matured.

It's only the unwise who see Len's height and completely ignore his inability to use lower body strength to move bodies, and his inability to lower his center of gravity in his knees.
the reason he can't is because if he does, he will get injured because his body was molded for that from his daily activities.

Now a guy like Bennett who has been playing basketball all of his life, and substantial time in the post, you see how thick his legs and how he moves players in the post for rebounds. He's been doing these activities since a very very young age and his body, after 10 to 15 years of training is honed for that specialized activity.

Had you taken Len and Bennett out of the balance beem, even at 7'1, Len would probably destroy him. Len's raw athleticism from gymnastic allows him to make finesse moves becomes gymanistics is purely finesse. Unfortunately, finesse with no explosiveness and no power means he isn't wizard material. Maybe running with Nash in a fun and gun but not DC.

We are grind out elbow in the mouth blow by you and power through contact and still score team.
Len and Porter don't fit that mold. They are soft finesse players in jamison mold. We left that era a long long time ago. Seraphin is showing alot of soft european style which is why he needs to traded for a real wizard style player. Singleton and Booker don't have at least two of the three traits needed to be a wizard either.

Explosiveness, Elite body control with the basketball, and demonstrated ability to finish through contact consistently.

You need to have at least two of these three traits in order to be a Washington Wizard.

I just wanted to say, I appreciate the paragraph returns near the top. I was actually able to read the first two paragraphs. Just for fun, I separate the rest of your post so perhaps I could read that as well.

Good luck. I tried for a while before. He doesn't seem to understand why its important or his keyboard doesn't have a return button.

[hands11]

Blair is not really a preference...more like an alternative. Blair would come without using a high lottery pick. Blair also has 3 years experience in a high-level environment. He isn't nearly as physically talented as Bennett, but he would give us that same ability to score inside and rebound at a high rate, for a cheap price.

And I definitely think Bennett is as bad as jamison defensively. He just didn't look good defensively in the tape I saw this year. Slow rotations, ball-gazing, being in the wrong spot--it was as consistent as his ability to score. To me, that really hurts his stock.

Blair is nothing like Bennett on offense. All Blair has is a garbage game where he can crash the offensive glass. He has none of the ball skills Bennett has, and he lacks' Bennett's perimeter shot. Yes, Blair on a vet minimum contract might well be better than sacrificing the #3 pick for Bennett, but let's not act like their production would be similar.

Blair would be a bad idea. Don't draft yesterday value pick, find your own if you want that. What does Blair do for you that 24 year old Jackie Carmichael couldn't.

As for Bennett, I'm kind of surprised his name has even made the rounds again. Iso player with red flags that doesn't play D. There are better options.

Keep in mind, some players it isn't a matter of coach them up on D. Some just don't understand or see the court like that. What he does on offense doesn't take nearly the focus and smarts that is does to be a good defender.

I expect him to be a challenge for whoever selects him. The Wizards don't need that. If they keep the pick, they need to follow in the Beal mold. Drafting young doesn't have to equal drafting immature low IQ players.

Investing in the promise of Bennett is how you get burned. The Wizards can not afford to get burned. That would be a huge set back.

Wall draft is working out well. Even Kevin still has some hope.
Ves draft was a bust.
Beal draft was awesome. He produce well in year one with lots of upside still.

You can't win every other draft and get where you want to get.

[hands11]

Ultimately I think both Porter and Bennet are going to turn out to be "just a guy" type players. Jared Dudley. Brandon Bass. Journeymen. The difference between these guys are the definition of marginal. So all things being equal talent-wise (different talents but probably the same net results), it just boils down to preference - or essentially a popularity contest. Even if either do manage to eke out an all-star appearance the best they'll equal would be Butler and Jamison at their highest of highs. Is Paul Pierce in the cards for Porter? Is Barkely in the cards for Bennett? Doubtful.

Nailed it. I see Bennett as the type that a team picks and tries to wait out hoping he gets it. Then he gets shipped around. Can score, but not a winner.

[hands11]

It's not like height doesn't matter. You're shooting from around your forehead most of the time so a 6'7 guy is still going to have problems creating his own shot against bigger players unless his release is ridculously high arced.

Then there's actually being able to see the floor, especially as a guy who would be on the elbow as much as Bennett, being able to see most defenders while being crowded helps with decision making and passing.

So in short, defensively and in terms of rebounding having good standing reach negates a lot of his issues there but the standing reach does little to negate his lack of height in terms of offense.

He passes about as good as Shabbazz, so his height for passing reasons isn't going to matter. He doesn't pass anyway. Bennett appears to be a bigger driving version of Nick Young. lol

[rockymac52]

WizD's obsession with Steven Adams has caused me to take a second, much more in depth look, at him. I'm still in the process of sifting through all the numbers and game tape, so I'm not ready to make a final judgment on the kid, but I'm intrigued to say the least.

On the surface, his production as a freshman was actually on par with Noel and Len, except that Adams played less minutes because of how raw he was. He's clearly a bit of a project, but the good news is he already has the size, and he probably knows what he's up against and is looking to develop long-term.

The bad news, at least IMO, is that so far all I can think about when I'm looking at tape and reading scouting reports on Adams is Meyers Leonard. Very similar players in many ways. They both have their own unique strengths and weaknesses, but the big picture for them both is eerily similar. To be fair, Leonard was seen as a bit of a project as well, so it's probably too soon to write him off after only his rookie season, where he did alright. But I've never been a Meyers Leonard fan, and I don't anticipate him ever being an above average starting center.

[hands11]

Cody Zeller shooting the ball VERY well. 72% from NBA 3 point line in drills.

https://twitter.com/chadfordinsider/sta ... 5937816576

An impressive workout indeed. If Zeller is a true stretch 4/5 candidate, that might change my assessment of him.

That was a key for him. Watch his draft stock rise.

I posted that updated DraftX video shooting he had good form. I'm surprised its that high but not surprised he can shoot.

In a weak draft, this could shoot him into top 3-4

[sfam]

See, this list doesn't scare me at all. It's pretty much exactly like you'd expect a random collection of 19 NBA players to be, if not much better. If we drafted Bennett at 3, I'd be more than pleased if he ended up being the equivalent skills-wise of Faried, LeBron, Millsap, Melo, or perhaps MKG. Then there's a handful of respectable role players, as well as a number of nobody's, including true busts and also guys who were never expected to do anything in the NBA. So why is this list supposed to make me think that Bennett isn't likely to succeed at the NBA level based on his size, or lack thereof?

I don't think Bennett has the type of lateral quickness to legitimately cover SF's in this league so he has to be compared to PF's. So let's throw out Lebron and Kidd-Gilchrist. That leaves 16 comparisons (Damion James is listed twice).

Superstars:
Carmelo Anthony

Starters:
Paul Millsap
Kenneth Faried

Role Players:
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Dejuan Blair
Al Thornton

Journeyman/Out-of-League
Lonny Baxter
Mike Sweetney
Joey Dorsey
Damion James
James Johnson
Draymond Green
Ryan Humphrey
Royce White
Kevin Jones
Ryan Gomes

I'd say the comparisons for Bennett's particular body type aren't that encouraging. 10 of the 16 guys are no better than vet-minimum type of role players. That said, I think it's important to acknowledge that Bennett is clearly more skilled than all those guys on the "Journeyman" list. Looking at his skill level, it would appear that he compares more to the "Starters" group which includes Millsap and Faried. I think he has a pretty good shot at rivaling them. The next question to ask is do we think the next Millsap/Faried is worth the #3? Those guys feel like players that should be drafted in the 6-12 range, not the top 3.

How many of those journeymen were valued enough coming out of college that they were chosen in the top 5 picks of the draft? I ask this because if they were marginal prospects, I'm not seeing a valid correlation'

[rockymac52]

^ exactly. That's why I said I thought that list was irrelevant and didn't convince me that Bennett's size will be an issue at all. I think you could take any combination of height, wingspan, weight, standing reach, etc. and you're bound to have some good players, some average players, and some terrible players.