Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

You have no cap space. People will be interested, but why would he sign with a bad team when he could stay with a good one where he fits? I get that you aren't interested, but you are being purposely dense.

"Purposely" isn't a word -- I take it you mean "intentionally." But, it's not true. You are re-interpreting your own statement "I don't think... signs him..." to mean "once the Wizards were to acquire him." If you'd written that, then yes my response would have been dense.

But that's not what you wrote. In fact, you went on to share your list of teams & the reasons they wouldn't sign Favors next off-season -- a list & a set of reasons neither of which assumed his being a Wizard instead of on the jazz.

In fact, it's not that I'm not interested in Favors; it's that we can't afford to pay for the positive delta of his play over Gortat/Mahinmi at the cost of a R1 pick.

As you point out, we have no cap space (in fact we are in tax territory). The way to keep having no cap space is to trade away R1 picks. Every problem we have is caused by our having traded picks.

You're not a Wizards fan, so you may not be conscious of this, but out of the last 4.5 drafts (i.e. starting w/ R2 of 2013) we have exactly 1 player. Yet, rookie contracts are the only real bargain contracts in the league (except for the max contracts of true superstars like LeBron, KD, etc.), b/c they are on a schedule rather than being market driven.

If you have to pay market price for veterans it's not possible to build & sustain a good team (unless you have a particularly brilliant GM; we don't). The enormous salaries we have to pay Wall, Beal & Porter essentially negate the advantages they bring with excellent play. The reason is obvious: they force us to fill out the roster w/ mostly marginal players.

You've purposefully and purposely managed to state incorrectly that purposely isn't a word in order to demean another poster. Not a good way to make a point.

Ah come on. Lay off poor PIF. It’s great to have a resident curmudgeon— especially a wicked smart one like PIF — on the board.

We’ve always had one - used to be Spence, until he let his hair down, started telling jokes, then disappeared.

Wait a second. PIF, are you Spence?

[Dark Faze]

Regarding Cousins though--why hasn't he signed an extension with NO already?

[dckingsfan]

Regarding Cousins though--why hasn't he signed an extension with NO already?

He very much wants to go through the off-season courting. My guess is that he will sign with the team that woos him the most and needs a big.

Another VERY good reason not to trade for him (unless you can dump the Mahinmi contract without somehow giving up a first).

[bsilver]

Regarding Cousins though--why hasn't he signed an extension with NO already?

He very much wants to go through the off-season courting. My guess is that he will sign with the team that woos him the most and needs a big.

Another VERY good reason not to trade for him (unless you can dump the Mahinmi contract without somehow giving up a first).

He may also want to go to a team that has a chance of competing. NO with the twin towers doesn't seem to be better than a .500 team.
Teams with cap room and need a center:
Atlanta
Chicago (Lopez has another year. He's good but nothing special.)
Dallas
Lakers
NY (may only have cap room if Kanter opts out)
Phoenix
Sacramento (we know he's not going there)
Several of those teams will make a run at Cousins. None are good now, but some do have potential.
Hard to see how we'd have a chance without giving expensive assets to NO and not even knowing he'd sign here.

[Dark Faze]

The truth is nobody he can sign with is likely going to be much of a force--New Orleans included.

Man, New Orleans looks like a team that hasn't had one draft pick outside of Davis in well over 8 years. That's a team that needs to be buying second rounders and scraping and clawing for any kind of draft pick they can get.

[payitforward]

Its time for us to deal for cousins...

Say what you want about him but he fills our biggest weakness

A big man that can score in the post and out to open up lanes for wall and beal...draw fouls at a high rate..and rebound the basketball effectively...

Hes not a winner but he hasnt played with winners on our level...

Getting cousins is an instant ecf visit and theres no way the cavs can stop wall beal and cousins...

Use him with the bench along with beal while walla nd porter rest...

Let them 2 jackup shots for 10 mins a game and pray for the best.

But we cant ignore that cousins on that cousins on the wizards...is the best piece for our core not named lebron durant draymond giannas or porzingis...

There's no deal that New Orleans would accept that doesn't include Beal or Porter. Maybe Oubre and 1st or just Oubre if NO gets desperate. But even if it doesn't include Beal/Porter, then we have four max contracts with a zillion $ luxury tax. (I assume this is within the rules)

I'd give up Beal or Porter if signing Cousins was a sure thing. He's the only player we could realistically get that could get us to the next level. The current team is going nowhere. We're 2nd tier, and will be for a while. Cousins has his faults and may not be the answer, but between having no chance, and some hope, I'd roll the dice.

I would be hesistant to trade beal but porter straight up n il be upset but il do...

We have to keep beal though...remember we skipped on harden to keep beal

Trade Porter straight up for Cousins, & we are immediately a worse team -- maybe 3-4 fewer wins.

The idea the Cousins "...could get us to the next level" baffles me. What would make you think so? He went to a terrible team, & he's made them a little better. Period. & it's much easier to make a terrible team better than it is to make a pretty good one better.

Who would you say is a comparable player -- a guy whose numbers & effect on the game you'd say were similar to those of DeMarcus? Once you identify that guy, compare the numbers of the 2 players -- all the numbers, b/c when a player is on the floor you get everything he does, good bad & indifferent.

All of a sudden, it'll become obvious that the other guy, the "comparable player" is actually much, much better than Cousins.

[payitforward]

"Purposely" isn't a word -- I take it you mean "intentionally." But, it's not true. You are re-interpreting your own statement "I don't think... signs him..." to mean "once the Wizards were to acquire him." If you'd written that, then yes my response would have been dense.

But that's not what you wrote. In fact, you went on to share your list of teams & the reasons they wouldn't sign Favors next off-season -- a list & a set of reasons neither of which assumed his being a Wizard instead of on the jazz.

In fact, it's not that I'm not interested in Favors; it's that we can't afford to pay for the positive delta of his play over Gortat/Mahinmi at the cost of a R1 pick.

As you point out, we have no cap space (in fact we are in tax territory). The way to keep having no cap space is to trade away R1 picks. Every problem we have is caused by our having traded picks.

You're not a Wizards fan, so you may not be conscious of this, but out of the last 4.5 drafts (i.e. starting w/ R2 of 2013) we have exactly 1 player. Yet, rookie contracts are the only real bargain contracts in the league (except for the max contracts of true superstars like LeBron, KD, etc.), b/c they are on a schedule rather than being market driven.

If you have to pay market price for veterans it's not possible to build & sustain a good team (unless you have a particularly brilliant GM; we don't). The enormous salaries we have to pay Wall, Beal & Porter essentially negate the advantages they bring with excellent play. The reason is obvious: they force us to fill out the roster w/ mostly marginal players.

You've purposefully and purposely managed to state incorrectly that purposely isn't a word in order to demean another poster. Not a good way to make a point.

Ah come on. Lay off poor PIF. It’s great to have a resident curmudgeon— especially a wicked smart one like PIF — on the board.

We’ve always had one - used to be Spence, until he let his hair down, started telling jokes, then disappeared.

Wait a second. PIF, are you Spence?

I don't even know who Spence was. Before my time. Still, though, can you describe him? You never know, maybe I have become Spence? (no...)

bsilver gets to give me a hard time; he beat me legitimately last year in the season record prediction game; I had to give $20 to his favorite charity when I lost! Actually, it was a pleasure.

Plus, in this case, he was right -- so I apologized to babyjax. OTOH, he hasn't been back to see his apology, I don't think. So maybe I scared him off! Is that something Spence would have done?

[payitforward]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

[popper]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

I think I agree but I’m not that familiar with advanced metrics. Can someone post efficiency rankings of PG’s, SG’s and forwards? Where do Wall, Beal and Porter rank in comparison to their peers?

[pcbothwel]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

So im in the "This is a core capable of going to the Finals in the East" Camp.
But If I had to trade Porter, this would be my explanation.
1) Wall is our franchise player and will stay until we tear it down COMPLETELY. So that leaves Beal vs Porter.
2) Porter has the shortest contract, and therefore puts us in a bind after next year, unlike Wall and Beal
3) We have a legit backup in Oubre who could most definitely start, Wall and Beal
4) Otto's hip and general frailty are of general concern, especially considering his move to PF full time.
5) Otto shows inconsistency in his assertiveness.

None of these are great reasons, but just trying to give some explanation for those that think Otto is the odd man out.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

You've purposefully and purposely managed to state incorrectly that purposely isn't a word in order to demean another poster. Not a good way to make a point.

Ah come on. Lay off poor PIF. It’s great to have a resident curmudgeon— especially a wicked smart one like PIF — on the board.

We’ve always had one - used to be Spence, until he let his hair down, started telling jokes, then disappeared.

Wait a second. PIF, are you Spence?

I don't even know who Spence was. Before my time. Still, though, can you describe him? You never know, maybe I have become Spence? (no...)

bsilver gets to give me a hard time; he beat me legitimately last year in the season record prediction game; I had to give $20 to his favorite charity when I lost! Actually, it was a pleasure.

Plus, in this case, he was right -- so I apologized to babyjax. OTOH, he hasn't been back to see his apology, I don't think. So maybe I scared him off! Is that something Spence would have done?

Spence was a good poster. Always well informed and very earnest. Seemed kind of true red, white and blue in a vaguely scary way.

Kind of like Michael Douglas in that film, what was it called, “Falling Down.”

There are a lot of distinct personalities that no longer post here who I miss a lot. Donkey. Nivek. Spence. JMRosenth, Pine.

Still a fun place to be. Let’s keep it going.

[payitforward]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

So im in the "This is a core capable of going to the Finals in the East" Camp.
But If I had to trade Porter, this would be my explanation.
1) Wall is our franchise player and will stay until we tear it down COMPLETELY. So that leaves Beal vs Porter.
2) Porter has the shortest contract, and therefore puts us in a bind after next year, unlike Wall and Beal
3) We have a legit backup in Oubre who could most definitely start, Wall and Beal
4) Otto's hip and general frailty are of general concern, especially considering his move to PF full time.
5) Otto shows inconsistency in his assertiveness.

None of these are great reasons, but just trying to give some explanation for those that think Otto is the odd man out.

It's not the "core" that goes to the ECF or anywhere -- it's the whole team. We're good enough to be right where we are -- in 5th place. Or, if you want to look at point differential, we might be good enough to be in 4th place.

1. Wall -- John is not having a very good season. He's never been as good as Wizards fans would like to think he is, but this season his play is above average but nothing special.
2. Porter & Beal expire the same year, though it's true that Porter has an option for that last year. I suppose he could turn down a $28m option, but he'd have to have become one of the very best players in the league to do that. In fact, I'm not sure another team could offer him more than that.
3. Oubre could start, sure. We'd be a worse team, but he could start. & we could have "name that player" back him up. & Morris playing 30+ at the 4. Forget about that "going to the Finals" thing.
4. Otto did miss his first season. Since then has he missed as many games as Brad?
5. "Inconsistency in his assertiveness?" At the end of the game, the refs don't calculate who showed assertiveness in order to determine who won. They just look at the scoreboard. Otto has more positive effect on that scoreboard than any other Wizard. Period.

If he's the odd man out, the team gets worse. But, of course, anyone should be available to be traded. If we made an outstanding trade, it could work out fine.

Lets say we traded Otto & our '18 R1 pick to the Lakers for Larry Nance, Josh Hart, the corpse of Luol Deng, & the Lakers 2018 & 2019 R1 picks. I''d be all over that. Nance is that good. Assuming he's healthy.

Of course even better would be Beal instead of Porter. Do you think they'd go for either version of that?

[payitforward]

Spence was a good poster. Always well informed and very earnest. Seemed kind of true red, white and blue in a vaguely scary way.

Kind of like Michael Douglas in that film, what was it called, “Falling Down.”

There are a lot of distinct personalities that no longer post here who I miss a lot. Donkey. Nivek. Spence. JMRosenth, Pine.

Still a fun place to be. Let’s keep it going.

I wish Dat were posting at his old volume. Hell, Lyrical Rico -- a mod! -- is never in here.

Nivek, aka the Secret Weapon, is definitely missed. Someone should remind him that you meet the same people on the way down that you met on the way up!

Hell, I miss Hands! Can't help it -- I do.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Ah come on. Lay off poor PIF. It’s great to have a resident curmudgeon— especially a wicked smart one like PIF — on the board.

We’ve always had one - used to be Spence, until he let his hair down, started telling jokes, then disappeared.

Wait a second. PIF, are you Spence?

I don't even know who Spence was. Before my time. Still, though, can you describe him? You never know, maybe I have become Spence? (no...)

bsilver gets to give me a hard time; he beat me legitimately last year in the season record prediction game; I had to give $20 to his favorite charity when I lost! Actually, it was a pleasure.

Plus, in this case, he was right -- so I apologized to babyjax. OTOH, he hasn't been back to see his apology, I don't think. So maybe I scared him off! Is that something Spence would have done?

Spence was a good poster. Always well informed and very earnest. Seemed kind of true red, white and blue in a vaguely scary way.

Kind of like Michael Douglas in that film, what was it called, “Falling Down.”

There are a lot of distinct personalities that no longer post here who I miss a lot. Donkey. Nivek. Spence. JMRosenth, Pine.

Still a fun place to be. Let’s keep it going.

I thought about Pine during that Bulls game. No Luvabulls posts.

I also miss fishercob and Lyrical Rico (who does pop back in for a cameo appearance now and then).

The board certainly isn't the same.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

While I'm with you in your defense of Porter, I don't agree with your assessment of Beal and Wall - particularly Beal. I just glanced at some numbers and I don't see how you could possibly rate Beal outside the top 30 guards.

Using Basketball Reference's screen for guards and guard-forwards, and only counting guards who have played at least 800 minutes, Beal ranks 14th in WS/48, 16th in BPM, and 13th in PER. He also ranks 14th in ESPN's RPM metric. (4 shooting guards and 10 point guards are ahead of him, but I'm ignoring Tyus Jones, who plays just 17 minutes per game.)

[Dark Faze]

I don't have any interest in trading any of Wall/Beal/Porter. My main interest is to find a means to scrape and claw our way to acquire additional picks to give us a chance at a Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic late round type of stud. One pick I'm salivating for at the moment is the Cavs own late first this year. For a team that already has the Nets pick and will be over the cap in a massive way after the IT extension, I am wondering what it would take for us to pry that pick from them at the deadline. I don't really think we have anything they want though.

[Ruzious]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

While I'm with you in your defense of Porter, I don't agree with your assessment of Beal and Wall - particularly Beal. I just glanced at some numbers and I don't see how you could possibly rate Beal outside the top 30 guards.

Using Basketball Reference's screen for guards and guard-forwards, and only counting guards who have played at least 800 minutes, Beal ranks 14th in WS/48, 16th in BPM, and 13th in PER. He also ranks 14th in ESPN's RPM metric. (4 shooting guards and 10 point guards are ahead of him, but I'm ignoring Tyus Jones, who plays just 17 minutes per game.)

I think Beal's going to end up higher in the metrics than he is now, because his 3 point shooting percentage is too low to stay where it is. He's missed a lot of open 3's that he typically made throughout his career. And aside from 3 point shooting, he's improved his overall game this season. So I'm expecting a big 2nd half of the season from Beal - assuming good health.

[Ruzious]

I don't have any interest in trading any of Wall/Beal/Porter. My main interest is to find a means to scrape and claw our way to acquire additional picks to give us a chance at a Clint Capela, Nikola Jokic late round type of stud. One pick I'm salivating for at the moment is the Cavs own late first this year. For a team that already has the Nets pick and will be over the cap in a massive way after the IT extension, I am wondering what it would take for us to pry that pick from them at the deadline. I don't really think we have anything they want though.

Looking at the mocks at this point (which could very well change), this is looking like a draft that falls off significantly after the 15th or so pick, but yeah, it usually turns out there's someone good available toward the end of the 1st round - possibly someone like Bruno Fernando, Mitchell Robinson, or Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.

[nate33]

I'm really amazed how comfortable so many of you are w/ the idea of trading Otto Porter, a guy who is our best player & one of the dozen best forwards in the league.

Yet, you would hate to trade either Beal or Wall -- neither of whom is even in the top 30 guards in productivity this year. SMH...

While I'm with you in your defense of Porter, I don't agree with your assessment of Beal and Wall - particularly Beal. I just glanced at some numbers and I don't see how you could possibly rate Beal outside the top 30 guards.

Using Basketball Reference's screen for guards and guard-forwards, and only counting guards who have played at least 800 minutes, Beal ranks 14th in WS/48, 16th in BPM, and 13th in PER. He also ranks 14th in ESPN's RPM metric. (4 shooting guards and 10 point guards are ahead of him, but I'm ignoring Tyus Jones, who plays just 17 minutes per game.)

I think Beal's going to end up higher in the metrics than he is now, because his 3 point shooting percentage is too low to stay where it is. He's missed a lot of open 3's that he typically made throughout his career. And aside from 3 point shooting, he's improved his overall game this season. So I'm expecting a big 2nd half of the season from Beal - assuming good health.

Agreed. Overall, I'd say he'll be in the top 6 among shooting guards, behind Harden and alongside DeRozan, Butler, Oladipo and Klay. I might have to throw Tyreke Evans into that mix as well. Nevertheless, if Beal brings his 3-point percentage up to career norms, he could jump up to 2nd place in the ranking behind only Harden.

There are several PG's better than Beal, including Curry, Irving, Lowry, Lillard, Walker and Westbrook. Collison and Dinwiddie have put up some impressive numbers so far as well, but I don't think that will hold up for a full season.

[LyricalRico]

^ I agree with PIF on Porter and agree with nate/Ruz on Beal. I'd love to get a nice package in exchange for Wall, and then build around Beal/Porter.