2025 Draft Thread

[NatP4]

I see nothing with Maluach. Feel for the game is pretty brutal.

Flagg is in a generational tier by himself. Harper is in your typical A-tier. Other than that, I’m trading down if I land in the 3-6 range. Looking at guys like Richardson&Murray Boyles.

Looks like an extremely weak draft after Flagg.

[tontoz]

My big problem with Maluach is motor. He wasn't playing big minutes so he didn't have to worry about foul trouble or fatigue. He should have been able to play all out when he was on the floor and he just didn't get his hands on many balls.

I don't see anything that makes me think he will be anything special on defense.

[AFM]

2 things:

1) Derik Queen shts all over this kid, pardon the visual

2) Maluach is halfway to a super max prison right now for the crime of being Sudanese ( https://www.cbs17.com/news/local-news/durham-county-news/khaman-maluach-duke-blue-devils-basketball-star-new-trump-administration-visa-policy/amp/ )

So no, I’m not touching him with a ten foot pole

[The Consiglieri]

With the draft lottery coming up, we have a good shot at Cooper Flagg. But theres a chance we fall to 2 or 3.
Personally, I wouldnt mind Dylan Harper, but then we have a glut with Smart, AJ Johnson, Kispert, JPoole, and Bub.

Just wanted to see thoughts on reasonable Plan B's if we miss on Coop. Do we trade the pick? Take the best player available?
Make any other moves?

??!?!?!
There's like a 6 in 7 chance we do not get Flagg, and only a what 40% chance we land a top 3 pick.

The Flagg Pick: 14%
A top 2 pick (clearly there's a top 2 tier, then a 2-3 player 3rd tier): 27% (touch more than 1 in 4 chance)

A top 3 pick: About 40%

A top 4 pick: About 52%

A top 5 pick: About 80%

The nightmare 6th pick: 20%, there's a better chance of getting the horror show 6th pick than any other individual pick other than 5.

So, the reality is, it is highly, highly likely, we are not getting Flagg.

If you want to do prep and learn about the guys in our zone, take a look at the top 6 who include Flagg, Harper, Edgecombe, Bailey, and a wide difference of opinion on whom should go 5 or 6 (Maluach, Tre Johnson, Kon K, Jakucionsis, Queen etc). Wide aggregated agreement falls off around slot 5.

Wizards fan reality check:

0.20 > 0.14

Twenty percent is greater than fourteen percent. There's a (significantly) greater possibility that the Wizards select sixth than that they select first.

The most likely outcome is all the tanking will result in the fifth pick.

I think the best way to illustrate how the draft lottery works is this:

We have a nearly identical chance to land a random pick between 1 and 4, as we do either 5 or 6. The odds are separated by a 4% tilt in favor of a pick nearly randomly distributed between 1 and 4 (slightly better odds in decreasing order for 1, then 2, then 3, then 4).

So the way of looking at it, as you bang your head against the tankathon sim, is that for better or for worse, it's a near coin flip between something 1-4, or something 5-6, which is why it feels when you run the sim, like you are constantly landing 5 and 6, 5 just happens to have nearly twice the odds as any individual pick 1-4, and 6 has nearly 30% more the odds than any individual pick 1-4. My math sucks, but I think that covers it best.

Instead of thinking of it as 1-6, think of it as 1-4, versus 5-6. That's really what it looks like.

Which is why I've been constantly trying to figure out who are 1-4 is, and who the most likely guys are that would suit are 5-6 considering the interests and predilections of the FO.

[Frichuela]

I see nothing with Maluach. Feel for the game is pretty brutal.

Flagg is in a generational tier by himself. Harper is in your typical A-tier. Other than that, I’m trading down if I land in the 3-6 range. Looking at guys like Richardson&Murray Boyles.

Looks like an extremely weak draft after Flagg.

I agree, with a caveat:

If we drop to 3, I'd roll the dice with Ace Bailey and his potential upside.

Then, if we drop to 4, agreed, I'd try to trade down and target Murray-Boyles. I used to be fond of VJ Edgecombe but his lack of ball handling worries me so I would not use a 4th pick on him.

[The Consiglieri]

Malauch shot 76% from the line so there is potential there for him to be more than just a pick and roll, rim running, defensive big. If you unlock his shooting, you probably have one of the best centers in the NBA. I'm completely fine with any of Flagg/Harper/Bailey/Malauch/VJ. Those are probably my top 5 in that order.

I think mine too. But when it comes to upside and potential, I wonder if the order isn't:

Maluach. Literally nobody in the league as big and athletic. Look at him in the footage making Embiid look short. Shooting a three over Unibrow. Plus he's smart? And wants to hit first?

Flagg. Too smart to be this young. Too much drive and BBIQ. Does that make him an early developing prodigy? Or is there constant upside in his rage to win. He will get better every year if his body holds up.

Ace. I get the tunnel focus questions. But few players have the length, athleticism, and natural grace, plus he loves the game. Loves playing 2-way ball. I think his body gets stronger. He's a baby out there, looks skinny but has room to build that predator strength. The Scottie Pippen sort of strength. Rangy muscle.

Edge. Instinctive athleticism and quick twitch reflexes that are matched or exceeded only by the Thompson twins, Shaedon Sharpe, Antman. He's smaller than the above, he's something like a bargain Russell Westbrook in his potential. With a skills coach and game reps he will only get better.

Harper. Born to the game. Strong. Instant veteran. Needs a jumpshot, but his wily game sense exceeds his pure athleticism which lets him get loose inside, has that James Harden thing where it doesn't matter that his footspeed won't blow past you. You just wonder if he will have to make some adjustments to do what he does at the next level.

One of my biggest things is looking for the "freak" trait in a player. Sarr has it IMO, so does Bilal. I think AJ may have it as well as he gets more reps. George and Bub I think are going to round into solid pros/rotational pieces but I'm a little less harsh on them because of where they were picked. At that point you're just throwing stuff at the wall.

Out of the 5 we discussed, I think Maluach has that freak trait so that's why I'm gravitating towards him. I believe it was the Ringer who said his standing reach is an inch taller than Wemby, and an inch shorter than Gobert. He's going to kill the measurements at the combine. This is all assuming we fall out of like the top 3 for example. Obviously I want Flagg, or Harper, but if we're pick 4th...Maluach is my guy.

Who do you have at 3?


I think I'm mostly operating from a similar place. Flagg is the jewel, Harper I'm just trusting you guys and the analysts, haven't really seen him or done enough research but there seems widespread consensus that he is basically a tier unto himself at 2.

After that the disagreement starts.

VJ or Bailey at 3 (and some people have Bailey dropping even more). Seems like the consensus broke and VJ edged ahead of Bailey for agg 1.03 at some point between Mid-February and Baylor getting smashed by Duke.

1.04-1.06, at this point, I think I appear to be like you, I look at whomever falls out of the big 3, and Maluach because of ceiling. I've been kinda convinced to lift Tre Johnson into the discussion 5-6, I'm not at all convinced on Queen, he seems to be floating between 5 and 12 on most boards, and as I've mentioned elsewhere, consensus breaks down entirely around slot 4/5, which reminds you that this is seen as a big 3 to 4 draft, much like next year (for now).

[dckingsfan]

I see nothing with Maluach. Feel for the game is pretty brutal.

Flagg is in a generational tier by himself. Harper is in your typical A-tier. Other than that, I’m trading down if I land in the 3-6 range. Looking at guys like Richardson & Murray Boyles.

Looks like an extremely weak draft after Flagg.

I agree, with a caveat:

If we drop to 3, I'd roll the dice with Ace Bailey and his potential upside.

Then, if we drop to 4, agreed, I'd try to trade down and target Murray-Boyles. I used to be fond of VJ Edgecombe but his lack of ball handling worries me so I would not use a 4th pick on him.

So, I don't see it as a "weak" draft, just one "generational" player and one Tier-1 player that we know of....

I think this draft will yield more results that say the last draft. But this is a draft where you either want 1 or 2 or multiple FRPs in the top 20. So, totally with you all you all there (sans Bailey).

Then the question is who would trade with us? And it would be dependent on if we had 3, 4, 5 or 6? And that would be dependent on the ping pong balls as well.

Brooklyn, Utah and the Wizards look pretty good right now.

If Brooklyn can take their two picks in the late 20s and trade up. That would be interesting for them, IMO.

And of course, whomever gets 1 & 2 are THE winners.

[doclinkin]

One of my biggest things is looking for the "freak" trait in a player. Sarr has it IMO, so does Bilal. I think AJ may have it as well as he gets more reps. George and Bub I think are going to round into solid pros/rotational pieces but I'm a little less harsh on them because of where they were picked. At that point you're just throwing stuff at the wall.

Out of the 5 we discussed, I think Maluach has that freak trait so that's why I'm gravitating towards him. I believe it was the Ringer who said his standing reach is an inch taller than Wemby, and an inch shorter than Gobert.

It's crazier than that. If his 9'8" standing reach is to be believed, then only Tacko Fall and Mark WIlliams have a higher reach in the entire NBA database. He's got an inch over Gobert/Boban and 2" over Wemby/Edey/Clingan. He may not be as fast and athletic as Gobert or Wemby, but with training I bet he'll be stronger. And he's quicker than goliaths like Fall and Williams. He is balanced with natural strength, not based on a mutation or aberration. Simply born tall from tall parents, from the country with the tallest average height in the world. He's an above average athlete within a population of very tall people. Not just a freak, a natural wonder. Which bodes well for his medicals, career health.

The measurements are going to be interesting all around. I'm waiting on Rasheer Fleming's purported 7'5" wingspan. VJ Edgecombe's no step jump and max vert. Yaxel's reach + jump. "Starquake" Derik Queen's shuttle run numbers. Sorber's all around athletic numbers. And pretty much anything related to CMB in reach wingspan athletic testing etc. All of the frontcourt guys I have my eye on. I'm actually hoping CMB measures small so he falls to our Grizzlies pick. This crew is all clustered in my head and I'd like to see if one or the other has a natural advantage going forward.

[Dat2U]

Trying to look at this a different way. This is not in exact order of preference. Just grouping guys based on what I've seen thus far.

Your out-of-the-box, plug & play future all-star.
F Cooper Flagg

Your future all-star with minor tweaks and improvements.
G Dylan Harper

Your future all-star if he improves his skill level - likely.
G V.J. Edgecombe

Future all-stars if you can squint and they make significant improvements. Young and talented enough that you have real hope.
F Ace Bailey
G Jeremiah Fears

Guys with elite feel who either lack physical tools, a specific skill or need more polish but may overcome it to be a valuable core piece.
G Jase Richardson
G Tre Johnson
C Thomas Sorber
F Collin Murray-Boyles
C Derik Queen
F J.T. Toppin
G Boogie Fland

Guys who appear raw and unpolished and lack feel. True projects. I would probably not draft someone from this category.
F Asa Newell
F Carter Bryant
C Joan Beringer
G Dink Pate
F Michael Ruzic

These guys have some upside (not elite) but have key flaws and still need further development
F Noa Essengue
C Khaman Malauch
G Nolan Traore
G Kasparas Jakucionis
F Will Riley
F Liam McNeeley
F Hugo Gonzalez
G Egor Demin
G Ben Saraf
C Alex Condon
C Rocco Zikarsky
F Bogolijub Markovic
F Adou Thiero
G Ian Jackson
G Xavian Lee
G Chaz Lanier
G Cedric Coward
F Isaiah Evans
F Izan Almansa
C Maxime Raynaud
G Drake Powell

Future role players with a clearly defined role
F Kon Knueppel
G Walter Clayton Jr
F Noah Penda
F Yaxel Lendeborg
G Nique Clifford
G Labaron Philon
G Miles Byrd
C Johni Broome
C Hansen Yang
C Ryan Kalkbrenner
G Kam Jones
F Alex Karaban
G Tyrese Proctor
F Darrion Williams
C Tomislav Ivisic
F Jojo Tugler
G Koby Brea
F Alex Toohey
F Sion James
G Hunter Sallis
C Johann Grunloh
F Eric Dixon

[Rafael122]

I think mine too. But when it comes to upside and potential, I wonder if the order isn't:

Maluach. Literally nobody in the league as big and athletic. Look at him in the footage making Embiid look short. Shooting a three over Unibrow. Plus he's smart? And wants to hit first?

Flagg. Too smart to be this young. Too much drive and BBIQ. Does that make him an early developing prodigy? Or is there constant upside in his rage to win. He will get better every year if his body holds up.

Ace. I get the tunnel focus questions. But few players have the length, athleticism, and natural grace, plus he loves the game. Loves playing 2-way ball. I think his body gets stronger. He's a baby out there, looks skinny but has room to build that predator strength. The Scottie Pippen sort of strength. Rangy muscle.

Edge. Instinctive athleticism and quick twitch reflexes that are matched or exceeded only by the Thompson twins, Shaedon Sharpe, Antman. He's smaller than the above, he's something like a bargain Russell Westbrook in his potential. With a skills coach and game reps he will only get better.

Harper. Born to the game. Strong. Instant veteran. Needs a jumpshot, but his wily game sense exceeds his pure athleticism which lets him get loose inside, has that James Harden thing where it doesn't matter that his footspeed won't blow past you. You just wonder if he will have to make some adjustments to do what he does at the next level.

One of my biggest things is looking for the "freak" trait in a player. Sarr has it IMO, so does Bilal. I think AJ may have it as well as he gets more reps. George and Bub I think are going to round into solid pros/rotational pieces but I'm a little less harsh on them because of where they were picked. At that point you're just throwing stuff at the wall.

Out of the 5 we discussed, I think Maluach has that freak trait so that's why I'm gravitating towards him. I believe it was the Ringer who said his standing reach is an inch taller than Wemby, and an inch shorter than Gobert. He's going to kill the measurements at the combine. This is all assuming we fall out of like the top 3 for example. Obviously I want Flagg, or Harper, but if we're pick 4th...Maluach is my guy.

Who do you have at 3?


I think I'm mostly operating from a similar place. Flagg is the jewel, Harper I'm just trusting you guys and the analysts, haven't really seen him or done enough research but there seems widespread consensus that he is basically a tier unto himself at 2.

After that the disagreement starts.

VJ or Bailey at 3 (and some people have Bailey dropping even more). Seems like the consensus broke and VJ edged ahead of Bailey for agg 1.03 at some point between Mid-February and Baylor getting smashed by Duke.

1.04-1.06, at this point, I think I appear to be like you, I look at whomever falls out of the big 3, and Maluach because of ceiling. I've been kinda convinced to lift Tre Johnson into the discussion 5-6, I'm not at all convinced on Queen, he seems to be floating between 5 and 12 on most boards, and as I've mentioned elsewhere, consensus breaks down entirely around slot 4/5, which reminds you that this is seen as a big 3 to 4 draft, much like next year (for now).

I have Bailey. I'm really struggling with him because he can shoot it obviously, and that's the NBA trait, but the lack of assists jumps out. He'll score 26 but have like 2 assists. The ball will just stop moving once he gets it. Secondly, he doesn't have a defined "freak trait." He's not an A1 athlete, he's a baller though. Like what is he? Is he Michael Porter Jr or is he MPJ but with the potential for plus defense?

VJ concerns me the most out of my top 5 because I don't believe he is 6'5. Watching him in the tournament, I'd be shocked if he's taller than 6'3/6'4. He looks small.

[Dat2U]

One of my biggest things is looking for the "freak" trait in a player. Sarr has it IMO, so does Bilal. I think AJ may have it as well as he gets more reps. George and Bub I think are going to round into solid pros/rotational pieces but I'm a little less harsh on them because of where they were picked. At that point you're just throwing stuff at the wall.

Out of the 5 we discussed, I think Maluach has that freak trait so that's why I'm gravitating towards him. I believe it was the Ringer who said his standing reach is an inch taller than Wemby, and an inch shorter than Gobert.

It's crazier than that. If his 9'8" standing reach is to be believed, then only Tacko Fall and Mark WIlliams have a higher reach in the entire NBA database. He's got an inch over Gobert/Boban and 2" over Wemby/Edey/Clingan. He may not be as fast and athletic as Gobert or Wemby, but with training I bet he'll be stronger. And he's quicker than goliaths like Fall and Williams. He is balanced with natural strength, not based on a mutation or aberration. Simply born tall from tall parents, from the country with the tallest average height in the world. He's an above average athlete within a population of very tall people. Not just a freak, a natural wonder. Which bodes well for his medicals, career health.

The measurements are going to be interesting all around. I'm waiting on Rasheer Fleming's purported 7'5" wingspan. VJ Edgecombe's no step jump and max vert. Yaxel's reach + jump. "Starquake" Derik Queen's shuttle run numbers. Sorber's all around athletic numbers. And pretty much anything related to CMB in reach wingspan athletic testing etc. All of the frontcourt guys I have my eye on. I'm actually hoping CMB measures small so he falls to our Grizzlies pick. This crew is all clustered in my head and I'd like to see if one or the other has a natural advantage going forward.

Khaman has too much Mark Williams in him. Maybe he's a better version of that in time? Mark is productive but not impactful. The massive size helps him close to the rim but put him in space and its so easy to create easy opportunities against a set defense with him in drop coverage.

Khaman also wasn't an elite defender for Duke. The stocks are not there, the rebounds are not there. The impact was not there defensively. The DBPM is low. The on/off numbers weren't great. The offense is all theory and practice footage. The fit with Sarr is unremarkable. It's an easy no for me.

More than going for the highest upside piece imaginable, we need to get the pick right.

Upside also being tied to standing reach or physical ability is no longer a edict of mine. To me, length or athletic ability is more about having the requisite length & athleticism to play your position. Too often and in nearly every case, we see guys becoming stars based on having enough athleticism to showcase their elite skill level & b-ball IQ. Khaman may have the IQ, he doesn't have the skill level.

The Gobert comparisons don't quite work because if you look at a young Gobert, he was (and still is to a degree) an athletic freak for his size and frame. He could run the floor like a gazelle and could hedge hard on the pick & roll but recover quick enough to cover the paint. But even Gobert isn't switchable on most guards, which mutes his impact, at least when the games matter the most, the playoffs.

[gesa2]

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center...

…
Unless you’re Nikola Jokic. Exception that proves the rule

Do you think Queen is going to be the best offensive player of all time like Jokic?

No! I agree with you Nate. I’ll enjoy following Queen’s career on another team, would not want him with a top 6 pick

[nate33]

The Gobert comparisons don't quite work because if you look at a young Gobert, he was (and still is to a degree) an athletic freak for his size and frame. He could run the floor like a gazelle and could hedge hard on the pick & roll but recover quick enough to cover the paint. But even Gobert isn't switchable on most guards, which mutes his impact, at least when the games matter the most, the playoffs.

One small quibble: I don't think Gobert's problems in the playoffs have anything to do with his defense. Drop coverage works fine in the playoffs if your drop guy is an extremely long or huge rim protector with an understanding of spacing like Gobert, Marc Gasol or Brook Lopez.

I think Gobert's playoff problems were on offense. He was so bad as a post player that teams felt comfortable guarding him with a wing. This allowed teams to just bench their center, go smallball, and play 5-out, which got Gobert away from the paint. Nearly every one of Gobert's elimination series involved that scenario. During his prime in Utah, he lost to Golden State (Draymond), Houston twice (Tucker), the Clippers (Batum played center) and Dallas (Kleber).

I'm not sure this has any real bearing on the Maluach discussion, other than I think teams can win with a non-switchy shot-blocker at center, but only if he is a good enough post player or an elite finisher so that teams can't guard him with a wing.

[Kanyewest]

Paul Harvey would say, "Now for the rest of the story:"

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jahlil_Okafor

It may have been off-the-court issues that inspired Philly to trade him, but it's not like he didn't get more chances elsewhere. He went on to Brooklyn, than New Orleans, then Detroit, and he couldn't earn a starting role in any of those stops.

Indeed, his per-36 offensive production was always rock solid. He averaged 19 and 10 (per 36) on a .600 TS% in New Orleans. But, as I and Dat2U have said many times in the past, defense is way more important than offense for a center. Your center is involved in over half of all defensive possessions. If he is a below average defender, it virtually guarantees that your team is a below average defensive team. Good offensive production isn't enough to offset the bad negative production because it's extremely hard to involve your center in over half of all offensive possessions. With zone defensive principles permitted, it's just too easy for teams to deny the center the ball.

…
Unless you’re Nikola Jokic. Exception that proves the rule

Sengun as well. Maybe the postseason could expose the Rockets but as it stands right now they have the 2nd best record in the West with the 4th best defense.

[The Consiglieri]

Just lost a giant post I was writing, suffice it to say, definitely feels like a draft where if we land a 1.05/1.06, I could 1000% be tempted into trading down. I think in that scenario I'd rather trade down and roll the dice on a super young NCAA guy like the 3 pt challenged Fears, or some of the draft and stash guys out of France like Traore, Essengue, and Beringer (who might just come). I would much, much rather just bet on youth and athleticism with those guys, then take an overage, floor prospect if we get punished by the lottery.

I think I'm pretty locked in, for now, pre-combine, on obviously Flagg and Harper, than 3-5 feels like Edgecombe, and debating Bailey/Maluach or trade down, and 5-6 seems like almost certainly Maluach or trade down unless something weird happens.

I've settled completely on a bunch of very young prospects as my preferred targets in a trade down and/or with the Memphis pick. The 3 musketeers from France (Traore, Essengue, Beringer) are all super young and tantalizing and worrisome in different ways and would really help the tank for our '26 pick. Fears is interesting, if he can get his 3 right, he could be a stud, or just a bust if he doesn't or something inbetween.

Feels like there isn't a lot of love for Demin and Kasparas here, and I get it, I think they're interesting if they slip, same with newell, basically I'd be targeting in a trade down, whomever falls, and is young as hell, got the size/length/athleticism. I'm completely disinterested in the overage prospects (Murray Boyles, Flemming, Wolf, Clifford, Lendebourg, even to some extent Queen (how is he turning 21 next winter, when he was a freshman?!?!).

Now in fairness, I think there's zero chance they trade out. I think they stick and pick, but it does offer an interesting opportunity, what could you get for moving from 5 or 6 to say 12-18?

I will say, I've gotten a lot more interested in the Memphis pick as I examine some of the young prospects, its amusing to see that I want no part of the guys the entire board seems set on. I want a kiddo w/that pick, period.

[Dat2U]

The cool thing is we basically have a 25% chance at Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper. That will make the choice easy at the top and we can lock on the Memphis pick.

I have V.J. pretty much locked into 3. I hear the concerns about his size and if he turns out 6-3 180 in shoes, I'll revisit this discussion but the combination of outlier athleticism, IQ, work ethic and improving skill give me hope he's going to be a very good two-way player.

At 4 is where it gets murky for me and I really am still unsure of where I lean. I had to revisit Ace Bailey simply because I was so unimpressed with the remaining lottery talent. In a scaled down role, he could provide utility. I'm also looking at him possibly being more of 4 in time due to his rim protection & length would be an easier fit as an off-the-ball spacer, who can attack closeouts.

Still out the remaining guys, the guy I like the most is Jase Richardson. His feel is elite. His decision making is excellent. His shooting appears excellent. His ability to attack of the bounce is really good despite not having a special handle or being truly explosive. Yet he's not a lead guard as of yet. He doesn't really ISO, everything comes within the flow of the offense. He's be excellent on defense. I'm not sure I would feel comfortable drafting him in the top 5 but I have trouble coming up with other guys that I would take higher.

Jeremiah Fears is someone who I have liked since the beginning of the draft process but digging deeper, he is very much a project. The handle and speed are there. The flashes of good decisions and taking over games are there but he's 18 and still a long way from being a 3 pt threat or a solid finisher in half court settings. If he doesn't improve, he's a career backup so that's the scary part. He's also likely 2-3 years of dreadful NBA performance before we can really begin to expect him to play at an acceptable level. Him and Bub aren't a natural fit either so that's something else to consider and also whether the Wizards would want a heliocentric guard ala John Wall to begin with. Especially one who will likely never be a plus defender.

He's still pretty high on my board, but I'm no longer advocating for his selection here.

Collin Murray-Boyles seems to have all the tools you'd want in a prospect but that 'can't shoot' thing is real bothersome, especially when you have a team of guys who defenses don't view as perimeter threats yet. It takes a specific lineup for a player like this to max out and you really have to be mindful of playing him with other non-perimeter threats. I know NBA twitter seems to love the kid and some have them in their top 3... I can't go that far because the Draymond Green comparisons haven't worked for anyone and even Green takes 3s to draw defenses out.

Tre Johnson is a bucket and he does give off Brandon Miller vibes in the sense he's a precocious player with a great feel for the game with some athletic limitations. Difference is about 3 inches though Tre is strictly a 2 and he's not replicating Brandon Miller running the wing on the break for a monster throw down. He is definitely a shooter and a guy that can get on a heater. Won't offer much defensively however. A good fit for the Wizards and a pretty safe pick but maybe not the two-way upside you'd hope for.

Derik Queen has been well discussed. His defense prevents me from saying he's worth a top 5 pick. I love the skill and feel and think the shooting will come. I don't think he'll ever be a true two-way player which is what is required for the C position at this stage. However in a situation where he slips to a later pick, his offensive value may warrant a selection with the consideration your probably getting a 6th man and a guy that can be really productive in limited minutes.

Kon Knueppel screams role player, maybe an upgraded version of Corey Kispert. Pass.

Kasparas Jakucionis & Egor Demin are not lead ballhandlers. Both can be overwhelmed, Egor with an inability to score and Kasparas with his TOs. Both are excellent passers but questionable shooters. Both have stunk enough in college that I wouldn't consider either in the top 20.

Asa Newell is a complete project. Gives off super-strong Marvin Bagley III vibes. Can't play C. Unremarkable from the perimeter. Frequently gets lost on defense. Pass

Liam McNeeley is raw and not ready in any way. Needs to go back to school.

Noa Essengue is possibly this year's Bilal Coulibaly. 6-8 of raw tools, crazy length and defensive havoc. Not an elite athlete like Bilal but longer. Currently takes 3s but usually of the wide open variety as teams dare him. Upside is more defensive that offense where he projects as a possible 3&D guy in time.

For Nolan Traore, you can basically copy & paste what I said about Jeremiah Fears. An inch shorter but many of the same likes and concerns. A project who needs time to develop (and suck) before you see any real value. Not also a clean fit with Bub either.

[doclinkin]

#1 Who do we think are the most likely players to join the top 4 in a top 6, and #2 what players do we think are FO would be most attracted to and in what order (and if that includes guys not in the consensus top 6, like say, Bilal in '23, who are they)?

As far as what our front office looks for, they tend to weight things like this:

Positional size, BBIQ, youth/room to grow, good character/work ethic/coachability, multi-position switchability.

I think in that order. Basically they are looking long range to figure out what is the best a player can become if they put in the work to develop. They are less interested in a player's consistency vs. the vision of their future and how likely they might be to get there.

1. Flagg. Generational IQ. Decent size. Solid athleticism. Youngest player in the draft. Ferocious competitor. He will improve anything he is able to. Too much hype to pass up. The hype raises the value of the franchise instantly. Any coach would love the kid. Any owner would fire the GM that passed on him or traded out of the spot.

2. Harper. Consensus #2 by all scouts. I don't think they buck the trend. If you see him as a lead ballhandling guard then he is big for PG. He only needs to add a reliable 3pt shot to have a complete game. His defense also can improve with a better team around him. Those are things you can train. The fact that he's this smart on offense suggests significant upside on defense, regardless of just pretty good athleticism.

3. Ace. Vying for preseason #1 with Flagg. Scouts have been tracking him for a long time. Fits their mold of raw athleticism in a super young player. They will live with early struggles to adjust. Which helps their long term plan. He played 2-5 at Rutgers. Coaches say he's a hard worker willing to take on any role they give him. Good kid, and still just a kid, one of the younger players in the draft.

I think the top 3 are locked in. After that it gets questionable. I think the combine will both answer some questions and raise others.

4? I dunno. VJ will measure short at the combine and I don't see +++ length in his reach. But he will explode in athletic testing. Position wise in the NBA the cliche is that you are the position who you defend. VJ is quick enough to trouble PG's, strong enough to check big wings. IN height though he will measure as a point guard. We have passers all around so can live with the fact he doesn't yet have an advanced handle. That handle will be his limiter at the next level, can't take advantage of his next level bounce and quickness if he can't control the ball at speed. SO. We don't have a Shamgodd on our staff to be a guard whisperer. We need to get him into the workshop quickly on this one.

5? I think Maluach is high up their chart based on their values. Maybe as high as 4. Maybe #3. He has positional size in the one position that is nearly impossible to get an advantage. We here cite Deni for the turnaround in Portland, but a great deal of that credit also goes to Clingan. A playable defensive Center is one of the biggest advantages a postseason team can have. As for BBIQ, absolutely, he is raw. But interviews with the kid show intelligence, maturity, curiosity. Aside form being super young. He is brand new to the game. Hasn't even watched as much basketball as many of these AAU products have played. That said: he's learning. His game changed radically at Duke compared to the bouncy energy he showed in Africa ball where he jumped all around the court and swiped at everything. He needs a true Big Man tutor. Basic skills are brand new to him. As for multi-position: no. He's a center. It was admirable to see him actually guarding in space at Duke. At the NBA he will rarely be asked to do that. On this team even less, given the long switchable types we have around the perimeter. What he does have is decent lateral mobility, that two-step game necessary for drop bigs to be effective. A big slow player like Brook Lopez showed you can have success playing just outside the paint, cutting off the lanes of penetration. You just need to be one step away if your steps are long. There are a few players a year who are both huge and able to shoot from range. At those guys we can send Sarr, but in a pinch a player like Khaman can stick a guy like Embiid or Jokic. Just keeping arms up and a wide base will make it harder for a Wemby/Giannis type to blow past.

6. Wildcard. I'd bet they'd take a guy like Noa Essengue. Maybe even rate him higher than VJ. He's one of the youngest players in the draft. Long. Good defense. Lacks a 3 ball and maybe fouls a little too much, but those can be trained. Multi position. All about the upside on him. Yeah another French kid, but that's not why they take him. They're just not averse to those with overseas training.

[dckingsfan]

Trying to look at this a different way. This is not in exact order of preference. Just grouping guys based on what I've seen thus far.

Your out-of-the-box, plug & play future all-star.
F Cooper Flagg

Your future all-star with minor tweaks and improvements.
G Dylan Harper

Your future all-star if he improves his skill level - likely.
G V.J. Edgecombe

Future all-stars if you can squint and they make significant improvements. Young and talented enough that you have real hope.
F Ace Bailey, G Jeremiah Fears

Guys with elite feel who either lack physical tools, a specific skill or need more polish but may overcome it to be a valuable core piece.
G Jase Richardson, G Tre Johnson, C Thomas Sorber, F Collin Murray-Boyles, C Derik Queen, F J.T. Toppin, G Boogie Fland

Future role players with a clearly defined role
F Kon Knueppel, G Walter Clayton Jr, F Noah Penda, F Yaxel Lendeborg, G Nique Clifford, G Labaron Philon, G Miles Byrd, C Johni Broome, C Hansen Yang, C Ryan Kalkbrenner, G Kam Jones, F Alex Karaban, G Tyrese Proctor, F Darrion Williams, C Tomislav Ivisic, F Jojo Tugler, G Koby Brea, F Alex, Toohey, F Sion James, G Hunter Sallis, C Johann Grunloh, F Eric Dixon

I guess the question becomes, can we get one out of each of the group. I know, I know, luck.

We kind of need to draft 1/2 - pretty please.

Then can we grab one of these at 20?

And two of these in the second round.

I would think a wildly successful draft looks like Flagg or Harper, Sorber and then two of the role players. Of the role players - who are your top two? And will any be there in the second round?

All of this changes after the ping pong balls...

[pcbothwel]

I see nothing with Maluach. Feel for the game is pretty brutal.

Flagg is in a generational tier by himself. Harper is in your typical A-tier. Other than that, I’m trading down if I land in the 3-6 range. Looking at guys like Richardson&Murray Boyles.

Looks like an extremely weak draft after Flagg.

I agree, with a caveat:

If we drop to 3, I'd roll the dice with Ace Bailey and his potential upside.

Then, if we drop to 4, agreed, I'd try to trade down and target Murray-Boyles. I used to be fond of VJ Edgecombe but his lack of ball handling worries me so I would not use a 4th pick on him.

This is basically where I am. Ace and VJ both have the "Upside" to be All-Stars, but their work ethic and IQ will be the X-Factors. This is where I will trust Dawkins and Co because I can only see whats on tape. I mean, Ace is 1.5-2 years younger than Brandon Miller and the Thompson Twins when they were drafted. He's much more in line with a guy like Anthony Edwards in terms of projection due to age.

I LOVE the group of forward/bigs guys between 15-25. CMB, Essengue, Fleming, Sorber, and Lendeborg are all intriguing. Even Traore and Clayton are interesting to me.
I would not hesitate to trade 4/5 to a team picking in the 14-22 range and pick up a lotto pick in the 2026 draft.
Would the Nets or Raptors double down on this draft and give up a 2026 pick?

[NatP4]

I’d be shocked if CMB doesn’t develop into a passable 3pt shooter. 70% career free throw shooter on high volume. Form looks good.

I think Richardson and CMB end up going top 5 in a redraft- 5-10 years from now.