Political Roundtable Part XXVII

[dckingsfan]

If Dems get control of all three branches of govt in 2020 (if they win the POTUS, it will be because turnout was so huge that they overcame all the voter suppression tactics, meaning they might in fact sweep all three branches), they're going to have to pass some laws being super clear that things that were "gentlemens' agreements" before are in fact illegal and you *will* go to jail if you do it.

That'll have to include some restructuring of the DOJ to make it *actually* independent instead of just "gentlemens' agreement" independent

Just curious - what would the mechanics of that look like. Would you have the DOJ outside of Administrative branch?

Some type of independent prosecutor. There would probably be more tolerance to it reporting to Congress vs. the Executive.

Like say the CBO? I guess it couldn't report into SCOTUS. I think everything in the US reports into Congress, the Executive Branch or SCOTUS, no?

Just wondering what that would have looked like when the Rs controlled congress during Obama's term.

[bsilver]

The ceiling for Sanders seems to be about 35% even if Warren starts to fade. And it's not certain that her voters will migrate to Sanders. Maybe half? Even with moderates splitting the other 65%, there's still no path for Sanders to get the nomination. We're heading for a brokered convention, and I don't see that as a bad thing, despite hand-wringing by many. The progressive's main enemy has been Biden, and they probably can't stand Bloomberg either, but he's been below the radar until recently. As long as Biden or Bloomberg don't get the nomination the progressives won't be happy but will still vote for any D to defeat Trump.

I've been pushing Klobuchar as the moderate choice, and think she's in good position. However, I just read about her role as a prosecutor and it's disturbing. Biden's record on race is not good, and certainly not Bloomberg's. And I just don't get Buttigieg, and don't see him getting the nomination. Come convention time, and no one winning on the first ballot, the super-delegates come into play and they'll go "establishment" - not Buttigieg.

There was an African-American commentator on MSNBC and he said African-American support for Biden is really soft. Their first priority is beating Trump and they'll even go for Bloomberg if they believe he'll win. The same can probably said for Klobuchar and her record is not as bad as Bloomberg. I don't know the older voters will support Sanders because they think he'll lose to Trump and they prefer a moderate.

I still think Klobuchar still win. To appease the left and get minority support, she'll choose someone like Julian Castro as VP. Actually I prefer him to Klobuchar, but that ship has sailed unless the convention is totally hung and all options get reconsidered.

[Kanyewest]

Some different factors to consider from New Hampshire

- There was no meaningful Republican primary unlike in 2016. New Hampshire is a state where Republicans/Independent can vote in a Democratic primary. It stands to reason that Klobuchar and Mayor Pete would stand to gain from a segment of this block- although I saw Kornacki claim that Sanders won 47% of the Independents (I would like to double check this)

- Voter turnout from college students may have been suppressed this time around. In order to vote, college students had to have a car registered and affidavit signed that they intend to stay in New Hampshire after they graduate 60 days prior to the election. In 2016 no such hoops had to be jumped through. This probably hurts Sanders more than any other candidate and it could become a big factor in November (Hillary only won this state by less than 3,000 votes against Trump)

- Hillary Clinton did beat Obama in New Hampshire (39.1 to 36.5). And as others have pointed New Hampshire and Iowa have a similar racial demographics.

- No candidate in US history that has finished 3rd or worse have gone on to win the presidential primary. So 2020 could become a first but it remains a tough road for both Biden and Warren.

Read on Twitter

- Andrew Yang dropping out probably helps out Bernie.


Other thoughts

- For Warren, I think it becomes very tough to pull off a win as she really needs to do well in Nevada and South Carolina before Super Tuesday. Her alliance with Amy Klobucher in the last debate has backfired immensely; although perhaps she has a promise of becoming Amy's VP. Her attack on Sanders has been pretty ineffective - in her last debate, she subtly implied that Sanders took money from PACs - this attack was either too meek or most of Sanders supporters do not care.

- Amy Klobuchar and Buttigieg appear to be in a big fight with one another. However, it remains unclear if either can really pull ahead because because both poll really badly with non-white voters- although perhaps this changes if Biden implodes and both gain name recognition.

- Bloomberg apparently is cutting into Biden's African American stronghold in South Carolina. This may be good news for Bernie Sanders and the rest of the field.

- After 3 presidential runs in Iowa and New Hampshire, these has been Biden's best finish (4th and 5th). In 2008 he finished 5th and 6th. In 1988, he withdrew before those contests because of plagiarism and lying about his grades. Yikes.

[Kanyewest]

The ceiling for Sanders seems to be about 35% even if Warren starts to fade. And it's not certain that her voters will migrate to Sanders. Maybe half? Even with moderates splitting the other 65%, there's still no path for Sanders to get the nomination. We're heading for a brokered convention, and I don't see that as a bad thing, despite hand-wringing by many. The progressive's main enemy has been Biden, and they probably can't stand Bloomberg either, but he's been below the radar until recently. As long as Biden or Bloomberg don't get the nomination the progressives won't be happy but will still vote for any D to defeat Trump.

I've been pushing Klobuchar as the moderate choice, and think she's in good position. However, I just read about her role as a prosecutor and it's disturbing. Biden's record on race is not good, and certainly not Bloomberg's. And I just don't get Buttigieg, and don't see him getting the nomination. Come convention time, and no one winning on the first ballot, the super-delegates come into play and they'll go "establishment" - not Buttigieg.

There was an African-American commentator on MSNBC and he said African-American support for Biden is really soft. Their first priority is beating Trump and they'll even go for Bloomberg if they believe he'll win. The same can probably said for Klobuchar and her record is not as bad as Bloomberg. I don't know the older voters will support Sanders because they think he'll lose to Trump and they prefer a moderate.

I still think Klobuchar still win. To appease the left and get minority support, she'll choose someone like Julian Castro as VP. Actually I prefer him to Klobuchar, but that ship has sailed unless the convention is totally hung and all options get reconsidered.

This number is getting very hard to estimate. Surprisingly, according to 538, the 3rd choice among Biden supporters is Bernie Sanders (2nd is Bloomberg who isn't even in the race). And you eluded to that many of Warren supporters are not in Bernie's (nearly 2/3 of them according to 538).

Klobuchar has a chance to do well but I have a feeling other candidates are going to start lobbing negative attacks and may not benefit as much from an open primary. But I wouldn't rule anything out but it would be pretty remarkable if she pulled out wins in multiple states.

[daoneandonly]

Let's see which D candidate is:
- a tax cheat?
- a philanderer?
- a probable rapist?
- a serial liar?
- accused child molester?
- draft dodger?

Well, he is doing the Christian right there work so there is that - of course there are those nasty unintended consequences.

Bill Clinton was the good majority of those things. Draft dodger? Yea that belongs in the same category as the other detestable things. The draft was a moronic idea, anyone who dodged it was right in doing so.

And why do you guys keep bringing religion into it? Only way of explaining why someone can bef so heartless in being pro choice?

And yea to your graph, we just cant recover from the miscreant Obama tenure, irs been downhill since

Going back to you quote:

...There's not 1 person in the Democratic party...

What you are really saying is that there was a Democrat who was 2 of 6 - and Obama was 0 of 6 like all of the current D POTUS candidates -- they aren't close to as bad as Trump.

And I bring that graph into play as the evangelists have been willing to hold their collective noses to get what they want. But it really isn't what they expected. They are now trusted ~ much as congress to do the right thing...

One of your post is an "accused" child molester? So unsubstantiated accusations warrant something now? And check your math, Bill Clinton was more than 2 items on your list, nice try though. One could even argue he was a child molester, seeing how the brain isnt fully developed until 25 (for all you folks who always preach science) and she was what 22 at the time he seduced her. And Obama is a liar, so again, stop trying to manipulate the narrative.

[daoneandonly]

as clear a rebuke and referendum as it should be, i really don't think Barr or Trump gives a fig. they'll just promote sycophants to fill the spots and it'll be business as usual.

can't shame the shameless.

"There's not 1 person in the Democratic party who's morally superior to him, so what differencedoes it make? You dont have a better alternative."

---- daoneandonly

That’s just plain ol’ trock n troll.
Everyone knows that Trump’s a pedo
“Morally superior” so that’s the bar?
Just about everybody is by far.
Huey Newton, Charles Manson,
Taylor, Zac and Isaac Hanson
Liberace, Yanni, and GG Allen
Galloping Gourmet and squirtin Fallon
Captain Kangaroo, the Good Humor Man
The little girl’s butt with a Coppertone tan
Rosie Ruiz and Rosie O’Donnell
Mayor McCheese and Ronald McDonald
Pretty much anyone you can name
Trump’s shamelessness put them all to shame
Didn’t really know how low you could go
Til I saw his fat ass sag to the flo

Come on monte, Clinton's a pedo, that's been proven. And an obvious, almost ridiculous question, whats wrong with being a pedo? Easys answer right, its harming an innocent, defenseless child who's done nothing wrong?

Last I checked, Dems dont care much about that. Just look at the debate, Sanders and the other charlatans on the debate stage saying only a pro choice person can be the next in line for the SCOTUS.

Liberal hypocrisy at its finest.

[gtn130]

Come on monte, Clinton's a pedo, that's been proven. And an obvious, almost ridiculous question, whats wrong with being a pedo? Easys answer right, its harming an innocent, defenseless child who's done nothing wrong?

Last I checked, Dems dont care much about that. Just look at the debate, Sanders and the other charlatans on the debate stage saying only a pro choice person can be the next in line for the SCOTUS.

Liberal hypocrisy at its finest.

So you're associating abortion with pedophilia here? You realize almost 80% of Americans support abortion under some circumstance right?

Do you actually live your life thinking 80% of Americans are morally equivalent to pedophiles?

[Zonkerbl]

Ok baseless accusations of pedophilia - GTFOH. Enough is enough. Where's the civility?

[daoneandonly]

Come on monte, Clinton's a pedo, that's been proven. And an obvious, almost ridiculous question, whats wrong with being a pedo? Easys answer right, its harming an innocent, defenseless child who's done nothing wrong?

Last I checked, Dems dont care much about that. Just look at the debate, Sanders and the other charlatans on the debate stage saying only a pro choice person can be the next in line for the SCOTUS.

Liberal hypocrisy at its finest.

So you're associating abortion with pedophilia here? You realize almost 80% of Americans support abortion under some circumstance right?

Do you actually live your life thinking 80% of Americans are morally equivalent to pedophiles?

I'm saying its two face to be up in arms about a child being harmed outside the womb, but celebrate a child being killed in the womb. And while its sickening how high the number has gotten for the pro chociers, feel free to share a link that indicates its 80%, that seems rather inflated.

Why cant the left just own and admit why they are pro choice, its about making life easier, a way out, not being accountable, at least be honest about it, geez.

And PS, I think couples who have abortions are worse than pedophiles. Both are reprehensible, but one is finite as it ends a life, and in said case involves one's own child (granted the other can too, but this is 100%)

[daoneandonly]

Yeah baseless

Proof is in the pudding, you have proof? Show the receipts.

[pancakes3]

gotta love moral equivalency about bill clinton's bj v. trump walking through miss teen usa's changing rooms and kissing contestants without consent as to which is the *more* pedo act.

especially since the topic of conversation is about the abuse of power in manipulating the Stone prosecution.

and the original question was "which Dem candidate?" - of course, that guy who was elected President 28 years ago.

i ask again, why are we putting up with this?

[gtn130]

feel free to share a link that indicates its 80%, that seems rather inflated.

78%

Link to poll with more data

[daoneandonly]

feel free to share a link that indicates its 80%, that seems rather inflated.

78%

Link to poll with more data

That's sad, the 25% especially who think any under circumstance, clearly soulless people right there, Im guessing the likes of pancake, querdi, and zonk and their circle of friends

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah baseless

Proof is in the pudding, you have proof? Show the receipts.

You're the one making the baseless accusation. What's your proof that Clinton was a pedophile? You're a liar and an alt right lickspittle.

[daoneandonly]

Yeah baseless

Proof is in the pudding, you have proof? Show the receipts.

You're the one making the baseless accusation. What's your proof that Clinton was a pedophile? You're a liar and an alt right lickspittle.

Did you not read the above, I know your left side relies on pubescent ages 18-24 to get any kind of votes, but those folks dont have fully developed brains, ask your scientist friend dob. Clinton in his middle age cheated on his wife with someone who didnt even have a fully developed brain yet, 22 < 25.

[Zonkerbl]

Yeah baseless

Proof is in the pudding, you have proof? Show the receipts.

You're the one making the baseless accusation. What's your proof that Clinton was a pedophile? You're a liar and an alt right lickspittle.

Did you not read the above, I know your left side relies on pubescent ages 18-24 to get any kind of votes, but those folks dont have fully developed brains, ask your scientist friend dob. Clinton in his middle age cheated on his wife with someone who didnt even have a fully developed brain yet, 22 < 25.

I stand by my statement.

[daoneandonly]

gotta love moral equivalency about bill clinton's bj v. trump walking through miss teen usa's changing rooms and kissing contestants without consent as to which is the *more* pedo act.

especially since the topic of conversation is about the abuse of power in manipulating the Stone prosecution.

and the original question was "which Dem candidate?" - of course, that guy who was elected President 28 years ago.

i ask again, why are we putting up with this?

And I ask again, you said you were leaving? But you're all talk, let me guess,"Excuse me for not wanting to leave my friends who I posted with for a decade?" That's the reply right? Even though you've never spent one iota of a minute in person with anyone from this board.

The original question was what alternative on your side is more morally sound than Trump? Granted its not a high bar, but the answer is nobody. Now the R's have several, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence, John kasich, Marco Rubio, etc, the left on the other hand is shooting 0 for whatever.

[Pointgod]

I doubt it though. My money's on moderates converging around one of Bloomberg/Buttigieg/Klobuchar. But we'll see.

Moderates tend to be a high amount of African Americans. I have a really hard time believing they converge around Buttigieg. They seem to be somewhat intrigued by Bloomberg but I can't see that holding as his stop and frisk stuff starts hitting the headlines a little more strongly. Klobuchar's history as a prosecutor poses some challenges for her as well. None of these candidates are the kind that are going to drive African Americans to converge around them.

And that's really the biggest unanswered question about the primaries. How do African Americans vote. Right now, most of them outside of those in their 20s or younger (who don't vote in as large of numbers) still support Biden. They might jump ship if Biden loses steam but none of those options tend to be particularly appealing to them. Biden still could pick up steam as we see larger states with more diverse populations throw in their two cents. Or he could crater, but if he craters, where his supporters go will make a big difference. Some of them might decide to listen to their kids and go Bernie, or they might not. They could divide in various ways amongst those more moderate candidates. Some might filter to Warren, though as superficial as it may be, they're going to be understandably skeptical of her ability to understand minority issues having leveraged them for her own career by identifying as Native American.

He's already driven out some of the better options, to be honest. Booker and Harris are both gone. If there's one thing that this Democrat primary process has demonstrated so far it's that old white men who have been holding out hope of fulfilling their dream have been hanging on for too long, pushing out some of the better candidates and opening the door for others. It's tough to fault anyone for pursuing their dreams but at the same time, wisdom is supposed to come with age and the lack of either understanding or caring about the consequences of their actions is concerning.

This is entirely up in the air right now. A lot is going to change in the coming months and I have no idea how.

African American voters are the most sophisticated voters in the electorate. They are smart and vote with their heads because they know that pretty much every candidate leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to the issues that affect them. They also know that people of color have the most the lose from a Trump Presidency. They’ll vote with who they believe can beat Trump. It will be interesting to see if Buttigieg gets a surprise bump, but unless the younger voters come out I can’t see a path for Bernie (also a larger majority are more moderate). I’m surprised that more candidates other than Biden didn’t hug Obama closely. We’re talking about the most popular President in the Democratic Party and country as a whole. If I was Warren I’d invoke Obama as much as I can as cynical as that might be.

[Zonkerbl]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pizzagate_conspiracy_theory

Retract your post. Now.

[gtn130]

I'm saying its two face to be up in arms about a child being harmed outside the womb, but celebrate a child being killed in the womb.

Dude this is one of the most laughable things you've said in your history of posting here.

-Pedophilia and abortion are not moral equivalents even if you say they are.
-Someone can be pro-choice and condemn pedophilia without being "two face"
-Nobody celebrates an abortion! It's a categorically bad situation.

You are absolutely obsessed with bludgeoning people with ABORTION, and the transparent reason for this is that the abortion issue is your cover for supporting Trump, someone disqualified from any religion-based system of morality. You are the hypocrite here, and your screeching about abortion is fooling absolutely no one. Each day you support Trump, passively or otherwise, is a day you live in direct violation of the religious values you claim to adhere to.