Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[nate33]

Then again... here's a fun question:

would you trade our pick next year (unknown, obviously) for Jalen Johnson?

How about for Deni Avdija?

I'd prefer Deni over Johnson because of his superior durability.

I'd prefer the #1 and #2 picks over Deni.
I'd trade the #3 or later pick for Deni.

[doclinkin]

Then again... here's a fun question:

would you trade our pick next year (unknown, obviously) for Jalen Johnson?

How about for Deni Avdija?

I'd prefer Deni over Johnson because of his superior durability.

I'd prefer the #1 and #2 picks over Deni.
I'd trade the #3 or later pick for Deni.

Would you trade a guaranteed top 5 pick for Deni. With a -30% chance of a top 2 pick and possible franchise quality talent.

[payitforward]

Then again... here's a fun question:

would you trade our pick next year (unknown, obviously) for Jalen Johnson?

How about for Deni Avdija?

I'd prefer Deni over Johnson because of his superior durability....

I know nothing about his injury history, tho I see he only played 1300 minutes last year.

In any case, this is an abstraction, as I don't think either guy is being shopped!

[nate33]

Then again... here's a fun question:

would you trade our pick next year (unknown, obviously) for Jalen Johnson?

How about for Deni Avdija?

I'd prefer Deni over Johnson because of his superior durability.

I'd prefer the #1 and #2 picks over Deni.
I'd trade the #3 or later pick for Deni.

Would you trade a guaranteed top 5 pick for Deni. With a -30% chance of a top 2 pick and possible franchise quality talent.

No. I would not give up that 30% shot at Peterson/Dybantsa. I would trade Boozer for Deni though.

[doclinkin]

I'd prefer Deni over Johnson because of his superior durability.

I'd prefer the #1 and #2 picks over Deni.
I'd trade the #3 or later pick for Deni.

Would you trade a guaranteed top 5 pick for Deni. With a -30% chance of a top 2 pick and possible franchise quality talent.

No. I would not give up that 30% shot at Peterson/Dybantsa. I would trade Boozer for Deni though.

And that right there essentially validates the Deni trade.

If we can capture the bottom spot. Top lotto position going into the draft. With the possibility of 2 franchise players. Even a 72% chance of getting somebody else is not worth the risk of missing out on one of the players who could single handedly alter the future of the franchise.

That’s the gamble. That plus a handful of lesser assets. None of which are likely equal to Deni. (Though maybe, since we did get George late and he seems to be in a Deni like mode). If we pull off the strategic tank and actually land a franchise talent then hey. It will have been worth it.

[nate33]

And that right there essentially validates the Deni trade.

Only if we actually do land a top 2 pick.

If it turns out the 5th-to-last or 6th-to-last team ends up with a top 2 lotto pick, then it would completely invalidate the Deni trade.

[WallToWall]

I look at the Knicks and I cant figure out what they want to do. It seems like they want to make a push for the playoffs; they'd need a player like CJ McCollum for the experience and the points he brings, along with his expiring contract. Oh look, we have a player who is like (a shell of) CJ McCollum. Thing is I cant figure out a trade that would work.
But...
Kispert + Champagnie FOR the battered body of Mitchell Robinson ($13m expiring contract) + Pacome Dadiet + Mohamed Diawara + a 1st rnd pick

That could make everyone happy. No?

[doclinkin]

And that right there essentially validates the Deni trade.

Only if we actually do land a top 2 pick.

If it turns out the 5th-to-last or 6th-to-last team ends up with a top 2 lotto pick, then it would completely invalidate the Deni trade.

Fair. It was a gamble. Trying for a top pick last year and this one. If in either year we landed a top 2 pick then it’s a winning bet. Irrespective of whatever we got from the 5 other assets. If not then we lost the bet.

That said it was a decent bet. I’d say a top 3 pick last year looked like a winner (though going into the year it was Ace Bailey in that 3rd spot, I expect folks would have been happy enough with VJ instead). We had a 40% chance of a top 3 pick.

If this year is weighted heaviest at the top 2, then to that 40% we add this years 27.4+%. Plus the possibility of a Suns swap. (Playing in a tough WC relying on a superstar who tends to be injured for significant portions of every year, never know).

So they banked on a near 70% chance of a franchise star. Plus whatever they get from 5 added assets.

Plus play time for developing forwards Bilal, Sarr (whose agent said wanted only to play at PF) and Kyshawn (who they’d targeted since Switzerland).

All weighed against the chance we lost the pick to the Knicks if we held on to our best young player, built around him and he did breakout. Or if any of our picks had instant chemistry with him and showed good success. Or frankly if his play forced us to bench +/- loser Kuzma.

It’s to Deni’s credit that his remarkable and steady continued advancement makes it a question.

Now I personally think Mikel Brown makes an argument for a top 3 position. And the NCAA season is young. There’s always a breakout player who stands tall in March.

Going into this year it looked like a draft that was 3-4 players deep. I like and respect Boozer’s game as a good foil for Sarr. Though what’s most notable is that he plays like a vet despite his age. But I understand the argument that you might as well hire a vet. Or a 4/5th year senior. Maybe there’s less upside unless he somehow gets even more fit. Quicker footwork to match his quick understanding. And let him play up top in pick and roll defense.

Anyway. Understood most folks weight too heavy the mystery of a top pick over the production of a very very good player.

But in a rebuild, especially one where you might lose your potentially best asset to a rival in your same conference, seems to me you weight most heavily in favor of minimizing the worst that could happen. While trying hard to shift the odds in your favor.

The rest is up to chance. Shrug. Some times it’s better to be San Antonio and know that small market or no the basketball gods simply love you more than most.

[Silvie Lysandra]

yeah like, even Deni's boosters thought his ceiling was "3rd best player on a contender", someone in the Pascal Siakam range. Nobody and I mean *nobody* thought he was a 27/7/5 player, absolutely nobody. It's like being down 3 scores in football, and then instead of kicking a field goal, you go for it on 4th down, and it turns into a pick 6. Insanely low probability outcome on top of the relatively low probability outcome of getting the #6 pick in the draft with the 2nd worst record.

Ultimately, it's better to be lucky than good, and being unlucky can negate being good.

[dckingsfan]

Ummm... just for clarification. Many thought he would be a second option on offense, a two way player and a solid influence in the locker room (He still has to prove that he can be an initiator and not turn the ball over).

And wait for it, wait for it...

A player with an amazing contract.

Good would have been waiting to trade the pick. So, it was a bad trade and we were unlucky. Double whammy. Just sayin'

[9 and 20]

Mavs looking to trade Davis. Not sure we're the spot for him, but with a big contract like that moving, this is where Dawkins needs to earn his money by wedging his way in there and getting a pick or two in exchange for CJ or Mids and whatever other spare parts we might have (we're mostly spare parts, tbh.).

[Silvie Lysandra]

Ummm... just for clarification. Many thought he would be a second option on offense, a two way player and a solid influence in the locker room (He still has to prove that he can be an initiator and not turn the ball over).

And wait for it, wait for it...

A player with an amazing contract.

Good would have been waiting to trade the pick. So, it was a bad trade and we were unlucky. Double whammy. Just sayin'

The problem is that his contract was a lot more valuable to other teams than it was to us, and it was pretty obvious. And the teams his contract was most valuable too were not only trading mostly low picks, but often didn't have picks to trade. Yeah in theory, we could have gone for a Bridges/Bane haul, but the problem is that the Knicks already traded for Bridges, and Orlando already had and has a billion forwards (and Deni wasn't as proven as Bane at the time). The Thunder? In theory, but Presti has been very patient in terms of holding onto assets just in case a super-duper star wants out (maybe too much so?).

Ultimately, we had less leverage than we thought we did, unless we took the risk of trying to tank with him on the roster. At the end of the day, Team 7 has close to half the odds as Team 3 of getting a top 3 pick. And you don't want to **** around and accidentally win too many games until those 2nds convey to the Knicks. It's all a bunch of calculated risks, and sometimes even if you take the "right" calculated risk, you lose. That's the nature of risk.

[nate33]

I look at the Knicks and I cant figure out what they want to do. It seems like they want to make a push for the playoffs; they'd need a player like CJ McCollum for the experience and the points he brings, along with his expiring contract. Oh look, we have a player who is like (a shell of) CJ McCollum. Thing is I cant figure out a trade that would work.
But...
Kispert + Champagnie FOR the battered body of Mitchell Robinson ($13m expiring contract) + Pacome Dadiet + Mohamed Diawara + a 1st rnd pick

That could make everyone happy. No?

No. That's awful for the Knicks. Mitchell Robinson is unquestionably a better player right now than McCollum, and he is cheaper. They would be insane to make that trade.

The bottom line is that CJ has no real trade value. His value will be in the bad contract we take back, and there aren't many bad contracts. Maybe CJ for Fred VanVleet is still a possibility if Houston gets squirrely about counting on Sheppard in a deep playoff run. That's about the only thing I see that makes much sense.

[Dat2U]

Would you trade a guaranteed top 5 pick for Deni. With a -30% chance of a top 2 pick and possible franchise quality talent.

No. I would not give up that 30% shot at Peterson/Dybantsa. I would trade Boozer for Deni though.

And that right there essentially validates the Deni trade.

If we can capture the bottom spot. Top lotto position going into the draft. With the possibility of 2 franchise players. Even a 72% chance of getting somebody else is not worth the risk of missing out on one of the players who could single handedly alter the future of the franchise.

That’s the gamble. That plus a handful of lesser assets. None of which are likely equal to Deni. (Though maybe, since we did get George late and he seems to be in a Deni like mode). If we pull off the strategic tank and actually land a franchise talent then hey. It will have been worth it.

I dunno. I might be willing to through Caleb in there. Another thing to look at is when Deni's deal is ending. Its max contract time thereafter. No more discounts to be certain.

[dckingsfan]

Ummm... just for clarification. Many thought he would be a second option on offense, a two way player and a solid influence in the locker room (He still has to prove that he can be an initiator and not turn the ball over).

And wait for it, wait for it...

A player with an amazing contract.

Good would have been waiting to trade the pick. So, it was a bad trade and we were unlucky. Double whammy. Just sayin'

The problem is that his contract was a lot more valuable to other teams than it was to us, and it was pretty obvious. And the teams his contract was most valuable too were not only trading mostly low picks, but often didn't have picks to trade. Yeah in theory, we could have gone for a Bridges/Bane haul, but the problem is that the Knicks already traded for Bridges, and Orlando already had and has a billion forwards (and Deni wasn't as proven as Bane at the time). The Thunder? In theory, but Presti has been very patient in terms of holding onto assets just in case a super-duper star wants out (maybe too much so?).

Ultimately, we had less leverage than we thought we did, unless we took the risk of trying to tank with him on the roster. At the end of the day, Team 7 has close to half the odds as Team 3 of getting a top 3 pick. And you don't want to **** around and accidentally win too many games until those 2nds convey to the Knicks. It's all a bunch of calculated risks, and sometimes even if you take the "right" calculated risk, you lose. That's the nature of risk.

Meh, I think we would have had a lot more leverage later on... it just doesn't explain away the return for a a two-way player that can be a #2 option with a great contract. It was just a bad trade. Nothing more, nothing less. It happens in a rebuild. And again for the record, I am fully in favor of the rebuild.

I am just hoping that we luck into a great player this time around and one of the youngsters fully develops into a #2 two-way option. It could very well be Sarr.

Okay, I will let this go. I shouldn't have pipped up in this thread - sorry for the derailing post.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/trade-machine/_/year/2025/team1/chi/team2/was

Kispert to the Bulls for Jalen Smith to Washington.

https://www.espn.com/nba/trademachine

Which trade checker is best?

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/8882040

Kispert for Jalen Smith increases minutes for Cam and Tre. It improves front court depth from just Vukcevic. Smith is 25. Corey is 26. Smith is way better and from Maryland.

[Dat2U]

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/trade-machine/_/year/2025/team1/chi/team2/was

Kispert to the Bulls for Jalen Smith to Washington.

https://www.espn.com/nba/trademachine

Which trade checker is best?

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/8882040

Kispert for Jalen Smith elevate Cam and Tre while improving on Vukcevic. Smith is 25. Corey is 26. Smith is way better and from Maryland.

I don't think any move is coming this year to solely improve the fit of the roster. Maybe this off-season or next year. Instead if Corey is moved in-season, its likely for a future assets (even if its just a couple of 2nds).

More than likely we'll see Middleton bought out if he can't be traded by the deadline which should free up some minutes for Riley, etc. I think we'll keep CJ unless we can find a deal for him or he asks out. I also think we'll see more A.J. if Bub continues to struggle badly.

[Dat2U]

So storytime:

The Deni trade was two fold. They really locked eyes on Bub and wanted another pick in the late lottery to scoop him. They also wanted to create a runway for Bilal to breakout and knew Deni & Kuz liked the ball in their hands and could get in Bilal's way. The Bulls were interested and we're willing to take Kuzma for the 11th... (I forgot the filler mentioned in return) but the Bulls were demanding the later 1st rounder in return (which the Wiz later turned into Kyshawn). The Wizards did not want to trade that pick so negotiated a deal with Portland to ship Deni there instead as there were guys in Portland's front office who were enamored with Deni during his draft process.

In retrospect they should have taken the Bulls offer and just draft Matas Buzelis and then try to trade back into the 1st to see if they could also get Kyshawn (maybe unlikely?).

[payitforward]

Interesting, Dat.... Where'd you come up w/ the Bulls info?

[Dat2U]

Interesting, Dat.... Where'd you come up w/ the Bulls info?

I was trying to find the article. I couldnt remember if it was Aldridge or someone else that mentioned the Bulls option right after the Deni trade was finalized.