Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[NatP4]

KCP also plays on one of the 3 best teams in the league with Jokic. It was a win win trade for both teams IMO.

[dckingsfan]

Why I don't do the trade.
1) Never sold on Barton
2) Gets in the way of the minutes for Deni/Kispert
3) I valued KCP over Morris
4) KCP would be an expiring at the end of this season and I felt would have more trade value
5) I felt like KCP would be better taking the minutes from a Beal injury

Morris is a smart, game manager who almost never takes a bad shot and rarely turns the ball over. His also averaging a career high in assists. Morris gives the Zards something that no PG on last year’s team provided. And, as much as I like Wright, he’s not nearly the poised, oncourt leader that Morris is.

I understand why you might value KCP over Morris, especially given the season KCP is having. But Morris' steady and heady PG play is providing the Zards with something that’s a greater need and much more important, imo, than what KCP would be providing.

Fair enough... I have always wanted the offense with this group to not run through Morris. So there is that... and I value defense over "steady". But, I wanted Gafford to start with Porzingis from the beginning, so there is that too.

[dckingsfan]

KCP also plays on one of the 3 best teams in the league with Jokic. It was a win win trade for both teams IMO.

Definitely good for Denver and the league anyway...

[payitforward]

I love Goodwin and he deserves a contract.... But do you maybe bring in a big or bring in Jackson instead? To help in the event of an injury where you're thin?

There's no need to "bring in" Jackson. He's on a 2-way contract. & once Goodwin is converted we can add a big as the other 2-way guy.

But those guys can't play in the play offs can they?

Good point.
OTOH, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves!

[payitforward]

...
Why I don't do the trade.
1) Never sold on Barton
2) Gets in the way of the minutes for Deni/Kispert
3) I valued KCP over Morris
4) KCP would be an expiring at the end of this season and I felt would have more trade value
5) I felt like KCP would be better taking the minutes from a Beal injury

Now let's look at the numbers.

Code: Select all

Player   Raptor   WAR
KCP         2.2   5.4
Morris      0.3   2.1

In advance of your rant on straight number - I dismiss the rant

No problem -- just tell me this... how is Raptor calculated?

"Never sold on Barton" -- well, all the same, it's still obvious that his numbers this year absolutely fell off a cliff! If he'd come in & played at the level of '21-22, we'd have had a very different record through the first 30 games.

In the end, this whole kind of thing does get boring -- &, really, it's impossible to keep "simple preference" out of one's view.

Moreover, obviously, we don't have a "laboratory situation" to make these assessments. Which means that, overall, the most important fact is our record, & if I want to claim anything positive for Morris b/c of that fact, I'm stuck when I turn to criticize Kuzma, right?

KCP is having a nice season, as I've written. & he's certainly shooting the 3 at an amazing clip! He's a good player.

[gambitx777]

Why I don't do the trade.
1) Never sold on Barton
2) Gets in the way of the minutes for Deni/Kispert
3) I valued KCP over Morris
4) KCP would be an expiring at the end of this season and I felt would have more trade value
5) I felt like KCP would be better taking the minutes from a Beal injury

Morris is a smart, game manager who almost never takes a bad shot and rarely turns the ball over. His also averaging a career high in assists. Morris gives the Zards something that no PG on last year’s team provided. And, as much as I like Wright, he’s not nearly the poised, oncourt leader that Morris is.

I understand why you might value KCP over Morris, especially given the season KCP is having. But Morris' steady and heady PG play is providing the Zards with something that’s a greater need and much more important, imo, than what KCP would be providing.

I think it would have been better if we had kept KCP and just traded for Morris some how or was able to turn Barton into something useful.

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[nate33]

I was not in favor of the trade at the time, but as it turned out, I think it ended up being a win-win. My biggest concern was that I expected Morris to be a total sieve defensively, when, in fact, he has turned out to be somewhat serviceable, albeit still a bit of a minus.

PIF is right that you can't compare Morris' production this year versus KCP this year, because KCP would not have played as well here as he is playing in Denver (which is a perfect situation for him). A better apples-to-apples comparison is Morris this year versus KCP last year. And in that respect, I'd say it's pretty close to even, except that Morris plays a position of greater need. KCP would have taken minutes from Kispert and Deni, which wouldn't have improved our team all that much.

There is no question that Denver won the trade even more than we did, but I don't think the trade turned out bad for us.

My favorite scenario would have been to keep KCP and trade Kuzma for Derrick White (who I thought might be available after Boston acquired Brogdan). That would have left us with:

PG White/Wright
SG Beal/KCP
SF KCP/Kispert
PF Avdjia/Rui
C Porzingis/Gafford

That's a lot of really good defenders around Beal. It would also have given more opportunity for Avdija to develop. And with White locked up until 2025, we wouldn't have the luxtax concerns we now have with Kuzma's impending free agency.

Even better still, if we would have draft Tari Eason, that would have shored up the forward depth even if Rui was ultimately traded.

[dckingsfan]

...
Why I don't do the trade.
1) Never sold on Barton
2) Gets in the way of the minutes for Deni/Kispert
3) I valued KCP over Morris
4) KCP would be an expiring at the end of this season and I felt would have more trade value
5) I felt like KCP would be better taking the minutes from a Beal injury

Now let's look at the numbers.

Code: Select all

Player   Raptor   WAR
KCP         2.2   5.4
Morris      0.3   2.1

In advance of your rant on straight number and rhetorical questions - I dismiss the rant

No problem -- just tell me this... how is Raptor calculated?

"Never sold on Barton" -- well, all the same, it's still obvious that his numbers this year absolutely fell off a cliff! If he'd come in & played at the level of '21-22, we'd have had a very different record through the first 30 games.

In the end, this whole kind of thing does get boring -- &, really, it's impossible to keep "simple preference" out of one's view.

Moreover, obviously, we don't have a "laboratory situation" to make these assessments. Which means that, overall, the most important fact is our record, & if I want to claim anything positive for Morris b/c of that fact, I'm stuck when I turn to criticize Kuzma, right?

KCP is having a nice season, as I've written. & he's certainly shooting the 3 at an amazing clip! He's a good player.

Fixed.

And yes to preference - definitely just opinion(s). I didn't want Barton because I believed it would cut into Deni & Kisperts minutes. I like KCP more than Morris. And I believed there would be a better deal in the future for KCP.

And part of my criticism of this move is it tastes a lot like last year's panic.

[dckingsfan]

I was not in favor of the trade at the time, but as it turned out, I think it ended up being a win-win. My biggest concern was that I expected Morris to be a total sieve defensively, when, in fact, he has turned out to be somewhat serviceable, albeit still a bit of a minus.

PIF is right that you can't compare Morris' production this year versus KCP this year, because KCP would not have played as well here as he is playing in Denver (which is a perfect situation for him). A better apples-to-apples comparison is Morris this year versus KCP last year. And in that respect, I'd say it's pretty close to even, except that Morris plays a position of greater need. KCP would have taken minutes from Kispert and Deni, which wouldn't have improved our team all that much.

There is no question that Denver won the trade even more than we did, but I don't think the trade turned out bad for us.

My favorite scenario would have been to keep KCP and trade Kuzma for Derrick White (who I thought might be available after Boston acquired Brogdan). That would have left us with:

PG White/Wright
SG Beal/KCP
SF KCP/Kispert
PF Avdjia/Rui
C Porzingis/Gafford

That's a lot of really good defenders around Beal. It would also have given more opportunity for Avdija to develop. And with White locked up until 2025, we wouldn't have the luxtax concerns we now have with Kuzma's impending free agency.

Even better still, if we would have draft Tari Eason, that would have shored up the forward depth even if Rui was ultimately traded.

Heck yes. Although I would have had it at - still can't believe the draft but oh well...:

PG White/Wright
SG Beal/KCP
SF KCP/Kispert; Avdjia
PF Porzingis; Avdjia
C Gafford; Porzingis

[DCZards]

And part of my criticism of this move is it tastes a lot like last year's panic.

What was “last year’s panic”?

[payitforward]

And part of my criticism of this move is it tastes a lot like last year's panic.

What was “last year’s panic”?

"tastes like" made me think that "panic" was mistyped for "picnic."

In which case the point would be that the move was a rehash of an outworn & ineffective strategy.

Of course, dckingsfan probably meant something completely unrelated to that!

[dckingsfan]

And part of my criticism of this move is it tastes a lot like last year's panic.

What was “last year’s panic”?

"tastes like" made me think that "panic" was mistyped for "picnic."

In which case the point would be that the move was a rehash of an outworn & ineffective strategy.

Of course, dckingsfan probably meant something completely unrelated to that!

LOL, was playing off of "feels like".

Last year's PG panic was Dinwiddie + Holiday and that was no picnic

[Frichuela]

Great chart that shows who are our best on ball defenders (Wright, Goodwin, Deni) and who are unsurprisingly the worst (Kispert, Barton). Surprisingly , Morris appears to be quite solid.

Read on Twitter

?s=61&t=eUiASLN-TvBZ6iEy055aKg

[payitforward]

What was “last year’s panic”?

"tastes like" made me think that "panic" was mistyped for "picnic."

In which case the point would be that the move was a rehash of an outworn & ineffective strategy.

Of course, dckingsfan probably meant something completely unrelated to that!

LOL, was playing off of "feels like".

Last year's PG panic was Dinwiddie + Holiday and that was no picnic

I know there's knock knock joke that would extend this in a "funny" way, but I'm restraining myself!

[tleikheen]

Wright is quietly putting together a stellar defensive season. In addition to his 2.0 steals per game, which would rank second in the league if he had played enough minutes to qualify, Wright is tallying 5.5 deflections per 36 minutes, a league best among players who have played at least 500 minutes. The 30-year old point guard also currently has a 3.8 Defensive Box Plus/Minus, which is among the league’s best. Moreover, the Wizards have a 19-10 record when Wright has played.

Simply put, Wright gives the Wizards a terrific point-of-attack defender, strengthening the Wizards’ defensive spine alongside Daniel Gafford. Thus, it won’t come as a shock if Wright manages to claim the starting job within the Wizards’ final 24 games. In turn, Monte Morris should also do well leading the second unit, as he could look to hunt for his shot more often when the Wizards’ offensive stars are resting.

https://clutchpoints.com/washington-wizards-3-bold-predictions-after-2023-nba-all-star-break

Starting to see DWright playing in winning time and post all star break would be a good time to insert Delon into the starting clineup.
The last 8 games (February) Wright has avg 26 mpg ,so his minutes are already increasing. It makes sense to stick the league leader in deflections at the pt of the opposing offensive attack.I also think Delon will raise the defensive intensity of the starting unit alot more than Morris does . Its time to set the lineup and roster for the playoffs .

[DCZards]

The Zards are playing well (as is Morris) with Monte in the starting lineup and Wright is playing quality (and late game) minutes off the bench. Why change that? If it ain’t broke don’t fix it.

[Dat2U]

It won't make much of a difference. Offense runs better with Monte so your sacrificing that for more defense.

[dckingsfan]

It won't make much of a difference. Offense runs better with Monte so your sacrificing that for more defense.

Not better partnering Wright/Beal & Morris/Deni? I dunno... I think it would help.

But I don't think it would be worth the turmoil in the locker room or at this point in the season.

Edit: I guess I am agreeing with you but for different reasons.

[gambitx777]

I think weights better off the bench you can hide his bad offence against sup par bench gunners but you probably can't against starting caliber defenders.

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[payitforward]

Over the last few years, Wright has played more minutes at the 2 than at the 1. You could also phrase that as a reference to Wright's "versatility."

Which probably implies that it makes more sense for him to be the 3d guard rather than one of the starters.

In any case, minutes are what matters.