Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[Ruzious]

I think a trade for Collins - which isn't likely - would include Bertans to make it CBA friendly. My guess is Collins contract starts at 25 mil, and Bertans is 16 mil, and it's probably doable starting there and adding either Rui or Deni and something else. Problem is - Collins isn't a particularly good defender, and if we're going with him and Bryant up front - it's not gonna end up well. Gafford helps, but realistically he's a 20 minutes a game player. I'd pass on Collins.

Me too.

If we are looking to trade the future for a win now guy, I think the best option in terms of fit, availability and relative youth is Myles Turner. Something like our #9 pick plus Avdija for Turner. Bryant would be sent away, perhaps to a 3rd party to shed salary

I don't like the trade at all, but it's something I could see the team doing.

We are destined to pick 9th every year, lol. I'd love to get Hunter from Atlanta, but that's probably a pipedream.

[nate33]

Bertans is back up to 62.3% TS. Leads the team in on/off differential by a mile. Pretty much the player we expected him to be when he was re signed. I think it’s safe to say that his trade value is back in the positive.

Would be content keeping him. Good player.

He suffered a bit early in the year with conditioning issues and being unable to practice due to Covid. Since he got past that, starting on February 3rd, he is posting 17 points per 36 on a TS% of .698, which is basically a cheat code. The only caveat is that he isn't playing as much as he did last year, averaging just 24 minutes per game over that stretch. (Last year, he averaged 29.3 minutes per game.)

[Ruzious]

Bertans is back up to 62.3% TS. Leads the team in on/off differential by a mile. Pretty much the player we expected him to be when he was re signed. I think it’s safe to say that his trade value is back in the positive.

Would be content keeping him. Good player.

He suffered a bit early in the year with conditioning issues and being unable to practice due to Covid. Since he got past that, starting on February 3rd, he is posting 17 points per 36 on a TS% of .698, which is basically a cheat code. The only caveat is that he isn't playing as much as he did last year, averaging just 24 minutes per game over that stretch. (Last year, he averaged 29.3 minutes per game.)

I think he's still on a bit of a minutes restriction, but I'm not sure. He should be in the game down the stretch of close games... if we're trying to win them.

[payitforward]

I think a trade for Collins - which isn't likely - would include Bertans to make it CBA friendly. My guess is Collins contract starts at 25 mil, and Bertans is 16 mil, and it's probably doable starting there and adding either Rui or Deni and something else. Problem is - Collins isn't a particularly good defender, and if we're going with him and Bryant up front - it's not gonna end up well. Gafford helps, but realistically he's a 20 minutes a game player. I'd pass on Collins.

Me too.

If we are looking to trade the future for a win now guy, I think the best option in terms of fit, availability and relative youth is Myles Turner. Something like our #9 pick plus Avdija for Turner. Bryant would be sent away, perhaps to a 3rd party to shed salary

I don't like the trade at all, but it's something I could see the team doing.

Oh god... I hadn't thought of this possibility -- & now I wish I could get it out of my head.

[payitforward]

Bertans is back up to 62.3% TS. Leads the team in on/off differential by a mile. Pretty much the player we expected him to be when he was re signed. I think it’s safe to say that his trade value is back in the positive.

Would be content keeping him. Good player.

He suffered a bit early in the year with conditioning issues and being unable to practice due to Covid. Since he got past that, starting on February 3rd, he is posting 17 points per 36 on a TS% of .698, which is basically a cheat code. The only caveat is that he isn't playing as much as he did last year, averaging just 24 minutes per game over that stretch. (Last year, he averaged 29.3 minutes per game.)

I think he's still on a bit of a minutes restriction, but I'm not sure. He should be in the game down the stretch of close games... if we're trying to win them.

How about the rest of his numbers since Feb 3, nate? Davis's best year overall was 2 years ago; I'd love to see him get back to that level & maybe improve from there.

The main thing is that 2 years ago his non-shooting numbers were his best ever. His shooting is a known quantity -- it's great, & in fact it's so good that it'd be hard to see it getting a whole lot better, so if he's to improve overall it'd mostly likely have to be in becoming a bit better across the board on all the other stuff.

[9 and 20]

Yeah, I don't think we'd need to invest all that much into a center, unless it's for a really exceptional player. Otherwise, Gafford and Bryant, should be a fine rotation.

I'm glad Bertans is back to last year's performance - I'd trade him sooner rather than later, though. He let himself get fat and out of shape this past summer and this was after sitting out of the bubble. Maybe I'm petty (I'm definitely petty). I love his shooting, but he is just paid too much for too long, and has too much impact on the salary cap, for what he brings.

[queridiculo]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

[pcbothwel]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

Exactly... Assuming no catastrophic injury, Bertans will age well over the next 4 years. Wait until THJ, Schroder, Fournier, Dinwiddie, Powell, etc. all sign for 10-20% more than Bertans next year for the same amount of years.

[nate33]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

[payitforward]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

Come on, man, you're a businessperson; you know better than this....

1. Based on the "...it's only a matter of time" argument, there are no bad contracts. In fact, on that basis the longer you are locked in the bigger the bargain the contract is. Inasmuch as this can't be true, the premise is faulty.

2. The first thing you "get back" is cap space. If the FO uses it stupidly that's on the FO.

3. If you've overpaid a player, it's hard to make a good player trade work: you're selling something that isn't worth the price tag it comes with.

We were offered a late R1 pick for Davis when he was expiring. It was very dumb not to take it.

[nate33]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

Come on, man, you're a businessperson; you know better than this....

1. Based on the "...it's only a matter of time" argument, there are no bad contracts. In fact, on that basis the longer you are locked in the bigger the bargain the contract is. Inasmuch as this can't be true, the premise is faulty.

2. The first thing you "get back" is cap space. If the FO uses it stupidly that's on the FO.

3. If you've overpaid a player, it's hard to make a good player trade work: you're selling something that isn't worth the price tag it comes with.

We were offered a late R1 pick for Davis when he was expiring. It was very dumb not to take it.

queridiculo said it would make sense to trade Bertans for "a meaningful draft choice".

[payitforward]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

Exactly... Assuming no catastrophic injury, Bertans will age well over the next 4 years. Wait until THJ, Schroder, Fournier, Dinwiddie, Powell, etc. all sign for 10-20% more than Bertans next year for the same amount of years.

First of all: *number* of years. *Amount* of money, but *number* of dollars. Sorry... I'm a writer, can't help it.

Now that we've got that important issue out of the way,

1. How do you know how Davis will "age?" I don't know how he'll age -- do you know something I don't know?

2. Your list of other overpaid players is obviously irrelevant. I can also give you a list -- a much longer list -- of guys who are far better value per dollar than Davis. Hell, you can come up with that list too. Those are the players you want.

Davis is overpaid based on his production last year, when he was better than this year. Ergo, he's overpaid this year. He'll be overpaid next year, when his salary goes up a bit. & he'll be overpaid later on when it goes up again.

Davis Bertans is a tremendous shooter. He also seems like a nice guy. His acquisition was one of the best bargain moves I've ever seen -- kudos to Tommy for it.

Failing to turn that no-cost move into a free R1 pick was dumb, however. Re-signing him for $60+m was dumber yet. Moves like this are how bad teams stay bad.

[payitforward]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

This is another rhetorical re-framing of a problem into an advantage.

How good is our defense? Is it good?

As soon as our defense is good, it will be relevant to point out that it's a bit better w/ Davis on the floor than without.

[WallToWall]

Davis Bertans is a tremendous shooter. He also seems like a nice guy. His acquisition was one of the best bargain moves I've ever seen -- kudos to Tommy for it.

Failing to turn that no-cost move into a free R1 pick was dumb, however. Re-signing him for $60+m was dumber yet. Moves like this are how bad teams stay bad.

Bertans has worked his way back to being a player worth a mid to late 1st round pick, IMO. He has the capacity to win games with a 3 point barrage, and that is worth a 1st to a team that is this type of player away from contention. At this point in time, it is a good move by Tommy. 4 months ago, Bertans looked terrible, and not worth anything, but that is no longer the case.

[nate33]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

This is another rhetorical re-framing of a problem into an advantage.

How good is our defense? Is it good?

As soon as our defense is good, it will be relevant to point out that it's a bit better w/ Davis on the floor than without.

No. It's relevant to point out if Davis helps or harms the defense, regardless of whether it is good or not. Who the hell are you to tell me what is relevant and what isn't?

And to your first question, our defense for the entire season is pretty bad, a 3-way tie for 24th. But since we got over Covid, from February 3rd onward, our defense is 12th best in the league.

[Ruzious]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

Yeah, Bertans is surprisingly okay defending out on the perimeter. He's a fish out of water defending near the basket. It's not just his lack of strength; his lack of ability to get off the ground quickly and react quickly in small spaces turns him into a statue.

[9 and 20]

Bertans is paid $15 million per, that's only 50% more than a MLE contract and it won't be much longer before the full MLE starts approaching the $12 million per mark.

With some of those numbers kicked around for the next TV deal I think it's only a matter of time before his contract starts looking even more reasonable than it currently does.

Moving Bertans only makes sense if we get back a productive player that can help us in other areas of need, or if he returns a meaningful draft choice.

There is definitely some merit to this. Like I said, I'm petty, and I'm still mad he was fat and out of shape. If he continues like he's been playing, he's fine. I'd still like to trade him, but if we don't he's a good player and if he's healthy, he helps a lot.

[9 and 20]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

Yeah, Bertans is surprisingly okay defending out on the perimeter. He's a fish out of water defending near the basket. It's not just his lack of strength; his lack of ability to get off the ground quickly and react quickly in small spaces turns him into a statue.

He's pretty terrible everywhere on defense. Definitely agree that he's better on the perimeter than on the inside, where he gets crushed consistently. But, better is relative and his value is tied up almost entirely in his offense. It makes not that much difference at all where he plays on defense. If he's hitting threes, he's a positive wherever he plays. If he's missing, he's trash at either the 3 or the 4.

[9 and 20]

Apparently, we almost traded for Markkanen from the Bulls at the deadline. He seems worse than Collins from the Hawks defensively. Also a free agent at the end of the year so it would have to be a sign and trade.

Bertans plus something for him? I'm not sure what the Bulls want, and I'm not sure how much it helps us. I wouldn't trade our first for him. He does check the Euro/overseas box for the Wizards. Got to corner that Finnish market. Sardines night incoming!

[Ruzious]

One thing that helps this year is that both Hachimura and Avdija can guard power forwards. So basically, when Bertans is in the game, he is playing SF where his lack of girth doesn't kill us defensively and on the glass. The defense is actually marginally better with Bertans in the game than when he is out.

Yeah, Bertans is surprisingly okay defending out on the perimeter. He's a fish out of water defending near the basket. It's not just his lack of strength; his lack of ability to get off the ground quickly and react quickly in small spaces turns him into a statue.

He's pretty terrible everywhere on defense. Definitely agree that he's better on the perimeter than on the inside, where he gets crushed consistently. But, better is relative and his value is tied up almost entirely in his offense. It makes not that much difference at all where he plays on defense. If he's hitting threes, he's a positive wherever he plays. If he's missing, he's trash at either the 3 or the 4.

People say that he's worthless when he's not hitting, but I don't thing that's even true. His presence causes other teams to defend the Wiz differently - spreading out the defense, and he makes things easier for his teammates. I'm not sure what the +/- numbers are for the Wiz, but I expect he's at or near the top.

Edit: Just looked it up - he's 8th in the NBA among small forwards in Real Plus Minus http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/position/5 and 2nd in Offensive Real Plus Minus http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/5 - ahead of guys like Kawhi, Butler, Tatum, and Middleton. His defense is a negative - but his offense more than makes up for it. And this is with his awful offensive and defensive start to the season. Btw, those stats include backups. He was also 8th and 2nd among small forwards last season. Again, Lebron was the only other 3 with a better ORPM. I see a trend there.