Discussing Other Teams' Moves - Part 8

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

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What an epic fail of a trade for LAC. I mean OKC's draft position is stacked even without LAC picks, but damn they played their card perfectly on that trade. Superstar, multiple picks, selling damaged goods.

[Benjammin]

It's scary to think that OKC could get GA and still have a surplus of assets. Obviously I'm not considering the salary cap implications..

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

OKC needs to avoid the idea of adding Giannis.

He would stop the ball. He would take possessions from SGA and Jalen Williams. GA would adversely affect Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively.

[LyricalRico]

OKC needs to avoid the idea of adding Giannis.

He would stop the ball. He would take possessions from SGA and Jalen Williams. GA would adversely affect Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively.

You may be right, but they might still rather have those problems than face Wemby+Giannis in the playoffs for the foreseeable future lol. Standing by while he goes to the Knicks or Hawks is another story.

[nate33]

OKC needs to avoid the idea of adding Giannis.

He would stop the ball. He would take possessions from SGA and Jalen Williams. GA would adversely affect Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively.

Agreed.

They are the defending champions and went 18-1 without JDub. Now they have him back and are 3-0. Why would they screw up that chemistry with Giannis? Not to mention that they can't keep the payroll under control with Giannis plus their Big 3, so they would have to give up one of their Big Three in a trade.

[Dat2U]

The best move OKC can make is no move. They literally have zero flaws, zero needs. Playing near perfect ball after winning a championship. They've got their big three locked up long term and have endless HQ picks to replace vets as they come free agents. A Giannis trade can only have a negative impact. He certainly won't make them better than they already are (just considering the law of diminishing returns and their current standing).

[Dat2U]

OKC needs to avoid the idea of adding Giannis.

He would stop the ball. He would take possessions from SGA and Jalen Williams. GA would adversely affect Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively.

You may be right, but they might still rather have those problems than face Wemby+Giannis in the playoffs for the foreseeable future lol. Standing by while he goes to the Knicks or Hawks is another story.

SA is apparently not giving up Harper (agreed) & Castle (disagree). Without either of those two, I dont see how Milwaukee excepts a trade from SA.

[nate33]

OKC needs to avoid the idea of adding Giannis.

He would stop the ball. He would take possessions from SGA and Jalen Williams. GA would adversely affect Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein defensively.

You may be right, but they might still rather have those problems than face Wemby+Giannis in the playoffs for the foreseeable future lol. Standing by while he goes to the Knicks or Hawks is another story.

SA is apparently not giving up Harper (agreed) & Castle (disagree). Without either of those two, I dont see how Milwaukee excepts a trade from SA.

Yup. Because San Antonio's picks will be pretty devalued from a team with Wemby, Giannis, Harper and Castle. Even if they traded all the picks and all the swaps, I'm not sure if Milwaukee will be all that impressed.

[Benjammin]

I wasn't saying that OKC should trade for Giannis, but that they could and still have a surplus of assets. It's just crazy how well they are positioned.

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[payitforward]

Wasn't so long ago there were several poster tsk-tsking OKC for accumulating so many picks -- the strategy would never work: they were gonna have to sell off picks at a discount. Didn't exactly work out that way, did it?

Presti seems to be a genius pure & simple. Here's hoping he passed some of that off to Will!

[closg00]

Bostons current starting line-up, and where they were drafted:

Jaylan Brown - 3rd
Derrick White - 29th
Jordan Walsh -38th
Payton Pritchard - 26th
Neemias - Queta - 39th

This^ has me rethinking the pain of tanking years. Of-course you have to hit in the lottery, but Boston has superior drafting and coaching that mitigates a dependance on tanking, Boston makes hits later in the draft consistently. Who gets the credit for Boston's resiliency, the scouting , or the coaching staff?

[nate33]

Wasn't so long ago there were several poster tsk-tsking OKC for accumulating so many picks -- the strategy would never work: they were gonna have to sell off picks at a discount. Didn't exactly work out that way, did it?

Presti seems to be a genius pure & simple. Here's hoping he passed some of that off to Will!

Presti is a genius, but I don't think we have proven that he won't have to sell picks at a discount. This is the year where things come to a head for OKC. They are really awesome and very deep, and they already have two recent high FRP's who they haven't had to play at all because of injuries (Sorber and Topic). And this year, they will add 3 or 4 more FRP's, with one of them (the LAC pick) a lottery pick, and possibly a second lottery pick (if Utah finishes with a #9 or later pick).

I don't think they want to try and groom Topic, Sorber and 4 other young players on a team that has no minutes available. I expect them to try and trade current picks for future picks. I also think Topic might be obtainable for less than what a recent FRP typically costs.

This isn't a criticism of their strategy. It's obviously a good problem to have. It's just an acknowledgement of the reality of the NBA in the salary cap era.

[payitforward]

Of course, but these are effects of success not failure!

In any case, wow -- what an extraordinary job they've done!

They're 21-1 this season, & over half their minutes have been played
by guys who were taken in R2 or else went undrafted!

[nate33]

Of course, but these are effects of success not failure!

In any case, wow -- what an extraordinary job they've done!

They're 21-1 this season, & over half their minutes have been played
by guys who were taken in R2 or else went undrafted!

Just because I'm bored on a Saturday morning, I decided to do a deep dive on OKC's cap situation. Here is what it looks like right now assuming they keep all 4 of their picks and all team options are kept:



It's totally untenable. They would be $65M over the luxtax and $43M over the 2nd Apron next year if nothing is done.

So let's assume they let Dort and Kenrich Williams walk. And let's assume they resign Hartenstein to a team friendly deal because they had a wink-wink agreement when they somewhat overpaid him $30M a year these last 2 years. Then it would look something like this:



It's still 16 players so someone has to go - probably one of their 2026 picks gets traded into the future. And they are still $29M over the luxtax threshold and $7M over the 2nd Apron. This is why I think they need to look at moving Topic and/or some of those FRP's. Their only other real option is to try and move Caruso, but he would have to go to a team with pure cap room available and that team would probably demand some pick compensation to absorb a guy who doesn't play more than 1200 minutes a year. And losing both Caruso and Dort might be a pretty big blow to their defensive identity.

Alternatively, maybe they have confidence in Sorber filling the Hartenstein role so they just let all 3 of Dort, Hartenstein and K.Williams walk. Then it looks like this:



They get through next season staying under the 2nd apron and only paying a mild luxtax fee. But they are relying on an extremely young group of guys. And even in this scenario, it still gets dicey in 2027-28 when SGA gets his new contract. They could cut Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams, but that still leaves them $4M over the luxtax and only $18M under the 2nd apron and they haven't even resigned Cason Wallace yet, nor have they paid their 2027 picks. And then Ajay Mitchell is a free agent in 2028.

The TLDR version is that we should be circling the OKC roster like vultures. At a minimum, I think it's possible that we could receive a late FRP from them in order to absorb the contract of a pretty good player like Caruso, Wiggins or Joe.

[nate33]

I wonder if they would give us Topic to absorb Caruso off their books. That clears up a lot of long term cap problems and it doesn't really hurt them on the court much with Wallace emerging as a Caruso replacement. Assuming they resign Hartenstein at a team friendly deal, they would even have enough 2nd Apron room to retain Dort for one more year. That would basically keep their team intact (except Caruso) and give them an additional year to threepeat before any major changes are necessary. Their payroll would look like this:



Move one of those 2026 FRP's into the future and the payroll drops below the 2nd apron next year and the roster drops down to 15 players. And they can probably stay below the apron in 2027-28 if they cut Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams while extending Wallace.

Topic would probably help us a great deal, and we could try and flip Caruso someplace else (since we'd be okay with taking on a salary in return).

[pcbothwel]

Great stuff Nate. Personally, I think they are fine.
1) They will move those picks for future picks
2) Hartenstein/Dort will be gone next year
3) Just a hunch, but I dont think both Jalen and Chet see the end of their deals with OKC.

[nate33]

Great stuff Nate. Personally, I think they are fine.
1) They will move those picks for future picks
2) Hartenstein/Dort will be gone next year
3) Just a hunch, but I dont think both Jalen and Chet see the end of their deals with OKC.

The point is that they will have to make some choices. You are assuming they part ways with Hartenstein/Dort and picks. I think they are better off trying to get off of Caruso and using the totally superfluous Topic as incentive. Then they can keep one or both of Dort/Hartenstein who I think are important players to their identity.

[dckingsfan]

Great stuff Nate. Personally, I think they are fine.
1) They will move those picks for future picks
2) Hartenstein/Dort will be gone next year
3) Just a hunch, but I dont think both Jalen and Chet see the end of their deals with OKC.

The point is that they will have to make some choices. You are assuming they part ways with Hartenstein/Dort and picks. I think they are better off trying to get off of Caruso and using the totally superfluous Topic as incentive. Then they can keep one or both of Dort/Hartenstein who I think are important players to their identity.

Would this be an deadline move or off-season move?

[nate33]

Great stuff Nate. Personally, I think they are fine.
1) They will move those picks for future picks
2) Hartenstein/Dort will be gone next year
3) Just a hunch, but I dont think both Jalen and Chet see the end of their deals with OKC.

The point is that they will have to make some choices. You are assuming they part ways with Hartenstein/Dort and picks. I think they are better off trying to get off of Caruso and using the totally superfluous Topic as incentive. Then they can keep one or both of Dort/Hartenstein who I think are important players to their identity.

Would this be an deadline move or off-season move?

Offseason. They're fine right now - $2M below the luxtax level.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Bostons current starting line-up, and where they were drafted:

Jaylan Brown - 3rd
Derrick White - 29th
Jordan Walsh -38th
Payton Pritchard - 26th
Neemias - Queta - 39th

This^ has me rethinking the pain of tanking years. Of-course you have to hit in the lottery, but Boston has superior drafting and coaching that mitigates a dependance on tanking, Boston makes hits later in the draft consistently. Who gets the credit for Boston's resiliency, the scouting , or the coaching staff?

Brad Stevens has always had a sharp eye for talent. Shelvin Mack outplayed his draft pick selection. Gordon Hayward was a terrific player also out of Stevens' repeat Final Four team at Butler.

For Boston Celtics talent, also don't underestimate Baylor Scheierman 30th or Hugo Gonzalez 28th.