Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[payitforward]

Or to say it another way, Wes' habits haven't helped in the win column or in player development.

He got stuck playing lots of minutes for Gibson, Gill and Nunn over the youngsters that are actually playing better than those veterans.

My conclusion is that he has cost us wins this season, stunted development at the same time and by doing so reduced our assets. All to shoot for the 10 spot.

But he is just a second year coach, so maybe he will develop.

Heading into last week's all star break we'd just gone 17-10.

As soon as I hear someone give Wes credit when things go well, I'll start to pay closer attention to the idea that when we lose it's somehow his fault.

Our record -- just like the record of every other team in the league -- is an exact mirror of how good our players have been. Accept it; it's the truth.

[dckingsfan]

Or to say it another way, Wes' habits haven't helped in the win column or in player development.

He got stuck playing lots of minutes for Gibson, Gill and Nunn over the youngsters that are actually playing better than those veterans.

My conclusion is that he has cost us wins this season, stunted development at the same time and by doing so reduced our assets. All to shoot for the 10 spot.

But he is just a second year coach, so maybe he will develop.

Heading into last week's all star break we'd just gone 17-10.

As soon as I hear someone give Wes credit when things go well, I'll start to pay closer attention to the idea that when we lose it's somehow his fault.

Our record -- just like the record of every other team in the league -- is an exact mirror of how good our players have been. Accept it; it's the truth.

I reject it - LOL. I think it is both a mirror of the sum of how the players have been playing AND the coaching.

On a side note, I did give Wes credit for changing the starting lineup to Gafford/Porzingis (although a bit backhanded as I thought that is what it should have been from the start).

[payitforward]

Or to say it another way, Wes' habits haven't helped in the win column or in player development.

He got stuck playing lots of minutes for Gibson, Gill and Nunn over the youngsters that are actually playing better than those veterans.

My conclusion is that he has cost us wins this season, stunted development at the same time and by doing so reduced our assets. All to shoot for the 10 spot.

But he is just a second year coach, so maybe he will develop.

Wes played Jordan Goodwin when he was producing. Deni has been developing. Rui played better here than he is in LA.

Beal, Porzingis, Delon, Morris are all having years that are as good or better than their peak at other stops. The Porzingis/Gafford pairing has worked well....

IOW, it's ridiculous to claim that Wes is holding back anyone's productivity. Agree totally.

OTOH, this...

Whereas Carey has shot .25% in his limited time on the floor. Gibson may be no good, but Carey is well below no good right now, at the NBA level....

...is kinda silly, don't you think? Vernon Carey has played a grand total of 28 minutes in a Wizards uni. He's taken 8 shots, of which only 2 went in.

There is nothing to take away from that fact.

Do you think he'll never miss a FT because he hasn't missed one yet?

[doclinkin]

Or to say it another way, Wes' habits haven't helped in the win column or in player development.

He got stuck playing lots of minutes for Gibson, Gill and Nunn over the youngsters that are actually playing better than those veterans.

My conclusion is that he has cost us wins this season, stunted development at the same time and by doing so reduced our assets. All to shoot for the 10 spot.

But he is just a second year coach, so maybe he will develop.

Wes played Jordan Goodwin when he was producing. Deni has been developing. Rui played better here than he is in LA.

Beal, Porzingis, Delon, Morris are all having years that are as good or better than their peak at other stops. The Porzingis/Gafford pairing has worked well....

IOW, it's ridiculous to claim that Wes is holding back anyone's productivity. Agree totally.

OTOH, this...

Whereas Carey has shot 25% in his limited time on the floor. Gibson may be no good, but Carey is well below no good right now, at the NBA level....

...is kinda silly, don't you think? Vernon Carey has played a grand total of 28 minutes in a Wizards uni. He's taken 8 shots, of which only 2 went in.

There is nothing to take away from that fact.

Do you think he'll never miss a FT because he hasn't missed one yet?

Okay a career .474 FG% on 57 shots. As a power forward/center, posting an eFG of 48%. And 65% free throw shooter (50% so far in a Wiz uniform).

So, are all his coaches idiots? Because despite being in the league for 2 years, he has earned less than 200 minutes. I would venture to guess that, all told in practice, summer league, and G-League, his coaches have _probably_ seen him play somewhat more than his NBA total of 187 minutes. And thus more than any one of us fans. We may be curious who he is and what he can do, but his NBA game so far has not earned him minutes. Compare and contrast with Jordan Goodwin, a much lower profile player who has scrapped his way onto the team.

Carey is a low post Big who so far, seems like, can't score in the low post against NBA caliber players. And aside from rebounding, can't defend, either inside or out. Seems to me the team's inability to find use for Carey is among the least of their shortcomings.

[payitforward]

You present facts; there's no arguing with facts.
Especially when all I can possibly present are possibilities -- & obviously they may not come true.

OTOH, you're leaving something significant out of the picture.
To earn minutes on this team as a 3d Center, Vernon Carey Jr. has a very low hurdle to vault: the level of productivity of the 38-year-old Taj Gibson, a guy who has been awful in 379 minutes, who is likely in his last season, & certainly is not a guy to invest time in.

If he were playing at the level of Alex Len two years ago, then for sure you could say that, given we just went 17-10, we'd like to see how far we can get, & a vet makes sense over trying to develop a guy who, whatever else is true, is certainly kind of a long shot.

But, he's not. Not at all. Not close.
Still SOP to play Gibson, but he certainly hasn't helped us in any way, so maybe SOP isn't what we need...?

[doclinkin]

You present facts; there's no arguing with facts.

...

Still SOP to play Gibson, but he certainly hasn't helped us in any way, so maybe SOP isn't what we need...?

Okay let's go back to those facts. Or lies, damn lies, and statistics:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2023/on-off/

Same discussion we just had about Kuzma. Gibson has been so terrible that he has helped the team to +5.8 pts/100.

In his 10 egregious minutes per contest, Gibson plays the kind of game that does not show up in his own personal box score, but does affects the opponents' efficiency, and his teammates as well. Gibson sets screens, boxes out, plays positional defense. Per 36 he posts 3 ast, 1 steal, 1 block against 2 TOs. He fouls more than he ever has but that is his role right now. He uses a hard foul to stop a run, fouling with purpose instead of by accident like Gafford.

Which is a key point as far as I'm concerned. Young players have to see how to do it in order to learn how it's done. Who else on the team sets a hard screen? Who uses a hard foul to change momentum? Early in the season Gafford credited Taj for teaching him better how to use his fouls and stick on screens. He still fouls out per 100 possessions, mostly out of a bad habit of being baited into a foul and flinching too early on the illegal screen. Eye test says he is getting better on those two fronts, somewhat more likely to stick and move on those screens, and somewhat more likely to use his fouls on purpose.

I don't fault Wes for 10 minutes of Gill or Taj now and again. They play the game the right way. If Rui learned how to play the pro game by the example of either of them, he could be an all-star. Players like Deni and Gafford need a Vet, there is a reason why it is standard operating practice. No amount of skill, veteran savvy and effort will teach you how how to play like Porzingis. But these guys are undersized pros who earned a career in the league despite lesser natural talents. Taj will surely be a coach on somebody's staff when he retires. A Udonis Haslem type. SOP works well for Miami, seems like we could borrow from them whatever they do that does work. Any young player could learn a ton from watching how these fundamentally solid vets carry themselves in life-fire situations. And yeah sure, Vernon Carey could learn from it too. But I don't think these two are hurting the all-star future of Vernon Carey. Hard to make an argument for that based on his career so far.

[dckingsfan]

That is kind of a compelling argument... I might have to change my mind.

Okay so Nunn over Goodwin? When he was here, Barton over Avdija or Kispert? Or why play Kuz 40 minutes and grind down his effectiveness when you have Avdija and Kispert?

[doclinkin]

That is kind of a compelling argument... I might have to change my mind.

Okay so Nunn over Goodwin? When he was here, Barton over Avdija or Kispert? Or why play Kuz 40 minutes and grind down his effectiveness when you have Avdija and Kispert?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/WAS/2023/on-off/

Nunn +6.4 pts/100. Good for the best mark on the squad except for small sample time bench players.
Goodwin -6.0 pts/100. Hard to say the coach made a bad choice. Statistically. Developmentally, maybe. Though again, we couldn't play Goodwin after the 50 game mark for a 2-way contract until we negotiated a buy-out with Barton. Fortunately Nunn's good play took pressure off. Too Nunn plays in relief of Beal, both have a dribble drive attack and can create. Goodwin is closer to Delon in play, and Delon is better. When Beal is out, what backcourt player can force the action?

Kuzma +4.8. Best of the starters, despite playing more minutes than everybody. Show me that 'grind down' in his effectiveness? He has missed only 5 games all year. 2 of which were the last 2 games before the trade deadline. (I expect at some point we hear about the deal we didn't make, where Kuz was discussed as a principal piece. Durant maybe?).

Too I think if the mandate is to keep Kuz (right or wrong), we may not be able to offer him championship contention but a leadership role and large minutes demonstrate his value to this organization. 'Loyalty' and $ are the only advantage we have in keeping control of our own free agents.

Barton got benched after 30 games, a few later outings dangling him for trade but he didn't show anything. OK, Maybe should have been sat earlier, but we had backcourt injuries and Goodwin hadn't come on strong yet. But sure, Wes gave his vet minutes he did not deserve. How many games to decide if a player is in a slump vs washed? That's something a veteran coach might have seen sooner.

[payitforward]

Gibson has been so terrible that he has helped the team to +5.8 pts/100.

...Gibson plays the kind of game that does not show up in his own personal box score, but does affects the opponents' efficiency, and his teammates as well. Gibson sets screens, boxes out, plays positional defense. ...uses a hard foul to stop a run, fouling with purpose instead of by accident like Gafford....

All good points, doc.

...Gafford credited Taj for teaching him better how to use his fouls and stick on screens. ... Eye test says he is getting better on those two fronts....

...I don't fault Wes for 10 minutes of Gill or Taj now and again. They play the game the right way....

I don't disagree at all. &, anyway, given Taj has played all of 379 minutes this season, no one could tag him with responsibility for any of our troubles.

Remember, this exchange isn't about Taj; it's about Vernon Carey Jr.
In essence, all I'm asking for is to play Carey "for 10 minutes... now and again."

Overall, my argument would be that we aren't a good enough team that 10 minutes of Taj vs. 10 minutes of Carey matters to our overall fate this season. At least some significant part of our focus has to be on our future, on decisions & development related to that future.

If, somehow, we manage to slip into the first round, we are going to be brushed aside by Boston. We can't afford to ignore a potentially meaningful asset that's future-oriented. We have an option on Carey for next year. Are we picking up that option? Or are we letting him go.

If the guy wasn't killing it in the G League, or if Taj Gibson had a 3-year future for us, I could see never playing Carey.

...If Rui learned how to play the pro game by the example of either of them, he could be an all-star....

But, he didn't. & that should be a hint to the fact that your argument cuts both ways.

Still, although Taj's presence didn't help Rui, you suggest that it is helping Gaff, & I'm happy to concede the point. OTOH, we don't really know how much of that teaching/learning process is happening in practice. Anyway, the kid learning from the savvy vet who takes him under his wing is a standard trope not an actual empirical argument.

Plus, nothing about that trope depends much on the vet's floor time. Thus:

...Taj will surely be a coach on somebody's staff when he retires....

Agreed!

...A Udonis Haslem type....

Perfect comparison!

...SOP works well for Miami, seems like we could borrow from them whatever they do that does work....

Again, I agree entirely, doc, & thanks for making my argument for me:

Udonis Haslem has played 46 minutes this year. Meanwhile...
undrafted rookie Jamal Cain has gotten 182 minutes
undrafted rookie Orlando Robinson 387 minutes
even undrafted rookie Jamaree Bouyea has gotten 65 minutes
undrafted rookie Dru Smith got 67 with the Heat (now w/ the Nets).

That's on a far better team than the Wizards, one that has a lot more at stake this season than we do.

Oh, & then there's the undrafted Caleb Martin who got 317 minutes his rookie year, 800+ his 2d year, & is now a starter.

So, yeah...

...we could borrow from them whatever they do that does work....

Or have you changed your mind, & now you don't want to borrow from them any more?

...I don't think these two are hurting the all-star future of Vernon Carey. Hard to make an argument for that based on his career so far.

You know better than that foolish, dismissive remark.

In fact, you know better than this whole foolish argument you're pretending to make.
For example, you know perfectly well that...

under Ernie, over & over, season after season, we kept trying to use end-of-career vets as bandages. It didn't work. It's not working in the case of Taj Gibson either.

[doclinkin]

Udonis Haslem has played 46 minutes this year. Meanwhile...
undrafted rookie Jamal Cain has gotten 182 minutes
undrafted rookie Orlando Robinson 387 minutes
even undrafted rookie Jamaree Bouyea has gotten 65 minutes
undrafted rookie Dru Smith got 67 with the Heat (now w/ the Nets).

Cool cool. Except. Miami has 5 players under the age of 25. They have played a total of 2551 minutes. Of which Tyler Herro accounts for 1699 of those minutes.

Whereas the Wizards have played 11 Eleven (!!) players under the age of 25. A total of 5,661 minutes. The bulk being played by Deni 1526 mins, Kispert 1402 minutes, Gafford 1093 minutes, Goodwin 742 mins, Rui Hachimura 728 mins.

And your contention is that we are not finding enough minutes to develop young players?

Miami has had 7 players over the age of 30. 2 of which are heavy minute starters. Just traded for 14 year vet Kevin Love who is averaging 23 minutes for them.

The Wizards have only 4 players 30 and up. Gill and Taj playing 10 mins each, Delon playing 22 mins, Barton averaged less than 20 before being benched in favor of 23 yr old Jordan Goodwin. Beal is 29 playing heavy minutes, otherwise all are at or below that NBA peak. Mostly below.

Point being, the Wizards are not playing spot minutes for their young cats because they are busy developing their young players in heavy rotation. As starters and bench stalwarts.

What's not working is that it is very difficult to get maximal production out of young teams whose players are under that NBA peak age of 26-29. Young teams, no matter how talented, rarely win much.

How in Hades do you get the impression that this team is following anything like an Ernie model? It would be a foolish fool who made that comparison. We have one 1 older vet --on a team with an average age of 25 yrs old. If that is the Ernie model, you might ask the nurse who blends your food for you if it is time for another cognitive assessment

It is not a strategic flaw for the team to play a handful of veterans spot minutes to exemplify how the game should be played. There are only so many young players you can develop at once. The strategic flaw is that our talent is not good enough to overcome their lack of experience. Drafting, not development is our most difficult problem. But if development is a problem, then spot minutes for vets help, not hinder, in that department.

[DCZards]

Some of the heady plays made by Taj tonight against ATL in the 14 mins he was on the court were an example of why experience and smarts sometimes trumps youth.

[nate33]

Some of the heady plays made by Taj tonight against ATL in the 14 mins he was on the court were an example of why experience and smarts sometimes trumps youth.

Yup. I wholeheartedly agree with doc. It’s nice to develop young guys, but it’s self-defeating to try and develop too many youngsters at once. I’m happy with Taj as a stable veteran presence while we develop a bunch of other young players like Goodwin, Deni, Kispert and Gafford.

Besides, Carey Jr.’s ceiling is that of a backup anyhow. There’s no point in developing a backup center when you can find one in free agency every summer for less than $5M, or even the vet minimum. Just grab a guy like Mo Wagner or Luke Kornet if you want depth. Don’t sacrifice wins to develop a mediocre talent like Carey Jr.

[payitforward]

Some of the heady plays made by Taj tonight against ATL in the 14 mins he was on the court were an example of why experience and smarts sometimes trumps youth.

Asbolutely -- Taj didn't hurt us last night at all. & we won the game -- tho we did that in the 4th quarter with "experience and smarts" from some other sources!

I'm not interested in being identified as the critic of Taj Gibson. Nor would I insert Vernon Carey Jr. into a close game we were struggling to win.

But I'd like to see him get 10 minutes now & again. I.e., I'd like to have seen him get a few hundred minutes this season.

[payitforward]

Some of the heady plays made by Taj tonight against ATL in the 14 mins he was on the court were an example of why experience and smarts sometimes trumps youth.

Yup. I wholeheartedly agree with doc...

I'm glad Taj had a good outing. I'm not "anti Taj."

It’s nice to develop young guys, but it’s self-defeating to try and develop too many youngsters at once....

You've written that any number of times, but it simply isn't the case.

Can we try to discuss this point (& in particular the question of minutes for young players like Carey) w/o turning the discussion into an argument at that extreme level of rhetoric?

Memphis just beat the Lakers. They played 4 rookies, 2 guys out of the '21 draft, 2 guys from the '20 draft & another 3 from the 2019 class. Plus the 23 year old JJJ.

Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones, & Luke Kennard shared the remaining 63 minutes.

Now, it's obvious that Memphis isn't a typical case. Instead they are a team that was every bit as bad as the Washington Wizards in 2018-19. & that knows how to choose & develop young players.

...I’m happy with Taj as a stable veteran presence...

Sure! Again, don't turn this into "anti-Taj" vs. "pro-Taj."

...while we develop a bunch of other young players like Goodwin, Deni, Kispert and Gafford....

That's a pretty small "bunch"! But, of course we should develop them!

...Besides, Carey Jr.’s ceiling is that of a backup anyhow... a mediocre talent....

I was wondering what happened to the crystal ball I used to have! I see you've got it!

Carey completely dominated the competition as a Freshman at Duke, he's dominating the competition in the G League (.691 TS%), & he just turned 22 last weekend. I don't know what his ceiling is, & neither do you. But I do know that he is by no means a "mediocre talent."

In any case, what's at stake here is the ability to build a team with some real future -- not whether we "sacrifice wins" out of the thirty-something we have the capacity to manage year in & year out.

You're looking at the same team that I'm looking at, & you certainly know better than the attitude you've somehow convinced yourself you ought to take.

Vernon Carey needs some minutes. Quenton Jackson needs some minutes. If Miami can develop Max Strus (undrafted in 2019, 2d on the team in minutes), Caleb Martin (undrafted in 2019, same number of minutes as Jimmy Butler), etc. we can do better than we are doing.

To tell the truth, I wonder what room a team thinking along the lines you're insisting on would have given Jimmy Butler to develop. Another mediocre talent drafted way down in the 30s. Just like Vernon Carey, Jr.

[payitforward]

Udonis Haslem has played 46 minutes this year. Meanwhile...
undrafted rookie Jamal Cain has gotten 182 minutes
undrafted rookie Orlando Robinson 387 minutes
even undrafted rookie Jamaree Bouyea has gotten 65 minutes
undrafted rookie Dru Smith got 67 with the Heat (now w/ the Nets).

Cool cool. Except. Miami has 5 players under the age of 25. They have played a total of 2551 minutes. Of which Tyler Herro accounts for 1699 of those minutes.

Whereas the Wizards have played 11 Eleven (!!) players under the age of 25. A total of 5,661 minutes. The bulk being played by Deni 1526 mins, Kispert 1402 minutes, Gafford 1093 minutes, Goodwin 742 mins, Rui Hachimura 728 mins.

And your contention is that we are not finding enough minutes to develop young players?...

Blast it, doc. I wish you would stop doing this annoying thing of bringing up facts all the time!

...Miami has had 7 players over the age of 30. 2 of which are heavy minute starters. Just traded for 14 year vet Kevin Love who is averaging 23 minutes for them.

The Wizards have only 4 players 30 and up. Gill and Taj playing 10 mins each, Delon playing 22 mins, Barton averaged less than 20 before being benched in favor of 23 yr old Jordan Goodwin. Beal is 29 playing heavy minutes, otherwise all are at or below that NBA peak. Mostly below.

Point being, the Wizards are not playing spot minutes for their young cats because they are busy developing their young players in heavy rotation. As starters and bench stalwarts....

The only reason Miami came into the discussion was b/c you put Taj & Haslem in comparison.

...What's not working is that it is very difficult to get maximal production out of young teams whose players are under that NBA peak age of 26-29. Young teams, no matter how talented, rarely win much....

With some exceptions, the key one of which from my POV is Memphis -- & it is Memphis (not Miami) that I've brought up over & over as providing the template we fail to use.

...How in Hades do you get the impression that this team is following anything like an Ernie model? We have one 1 older vet....

Fair point -- if I said we were "following... an Ernie model" overall, I was wrong. I'll take a look.... I didn't. Still, this ...

...It is not a strategic flaw for the team to play a handful of veterans spot minutes to exemplify how the game should be played....

...is certainly fine.
Only... the claim made was that playing Taj Gibson was the best way to maximum our wins -- nothing to do with your point.

...There are only so many young players you can develop at once...

"Limits," as Charles Olson once remarked, "are what we are all inside of."

...our talent is not good enough to overcome their lack of experience. Drafting, not development is our most difficult problem....

We have many problems, & drafting is what we've done worst over the years of Tommy's tenure -- as was also true of Ernie's tenure.

All the same, the sum total of what I actually said amounts to:

1. We don't know good an NBA player Carey can be, especially given how dominant he was his one year in college, how young he still is, & how outstanding he's been this year in the G League.

2. We need to find out, because we have a decision to make about him.

3. Hence we need to give him some floor time. I think I called for 10 minutes now & again.

2. If he's not on the floor b/c Taj is, & if the justification is that the experienced vet will help us maximize our wins, then the appropriate response is that

a) Taj isn't playing well enough to make a positive difference in our record
b) & anyway, maximizing the wins of a 30-something win team (which we've been for now going on 5 years not to mention for most of the previous decade, on average) is a fool's game

I'm done with this subject.

[AFM]

ITT: 2 aging nerds argue over fringe players’ minutes on a terrible basketball team

[dckingsfan]

Citing a small sample size of one game to justify a long-term strategy

[Kanyewest]

Random observations that I've had over time about Gibson/Carey

- From the two games that I went to, Gibson always comes out before the game to practice his shot. Maybe this doesn't actually mean much for an actual argument of why Gibson should see playing time, but I imagine that this may be something that the coaching staff and front office value and may reward him for playing time.
- I've only observed Carey once at the Phoenix game- when he was going through the warmups- he didn't look very engaged. And also didn't seem to be that highly motivated - although he did have a couple rebounds and an assists which would be very productive in garbage time minutes.
- Just from a general eye test Carey doesn't seem that athletic. I'm also wondering how much G league stats correlate to success. I think it's interesting that Carey was a top 6 high school basketball player- https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2019.
- Gibson seems like a perfect trap veteran for a coach to play over a developing young player. He was trained in the defensive dark arts under Thibs- even battled Beal and playoff Nene back in 2014. So he's going to always know where to be defensively after it being drilled to him by Thibs. He's kind of good offensively especially when lesser defensive teams forget to guard him and he cuts for a wide open layup at the rim.
- Gibson also a former college teammate of Nick Young. Some reporter needs to ask him about some Nick Young stories.

[BearlyBallin]

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[BearlyBallin]

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