Woj: Deni to Portland for 14th pick and Brogdon

[Kanyewest]

Does Bub Carrington ever compare himself to Deni Avdija? (whom he was traded for on draft night)

“I don’t. I hear that he’s a good player. … Obviously that trade — I didn’t want the trade, Deni didn’t ask for the trade, it’s way above both of us. I ain’t got no beef with Deni.”

Via Varun Shankar of the Washington Post

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

There is no doubt whatever that Deni is playing great basketball & is responsible for most of Portland's improvement this year as the team has gone from 21 to (likely) 36 wins.

That's a 71% improvement which, if matched by the (imagined) Wizards-with-Deni version of our team, would have given us a 26-win season. We would quite likely be the 5th-worst team in the league rather than the 2d-worst as we are now.

Our chances at the top pick would be much lower. Our chances for a top 3 pick would be much lower. We still may not wind up with a top 3 pick, but it would be a whole lot less likely in a scenario where we keep Deni.

Plus, our expectations for the '25-6 season would be for more wins than I'd say is practical as things stand. Hence we'd be likely to pick out of the top 5 in the '26 draft as well. We might endanger protection on our '26 pick as well. & risk losing it.

Of course we might be able to solve that last problem by trading Champagnie to NY for increased protection. Under that scenario

1. We wouldn't have Bub.
2. We'd have a significantly lower 2025 R1 pick.
3. We might not have our 2026 R1 pick or we might have a lower pick.
5. We wouldn't have Champagnie.

Conclusion: keeping Deni did not accord with a thorough rebuild.

Add to that the Deni we kept wouldn't necessarily be playing as well as the Portland Deni.

Remember Rip Hamilton?

Wizards Rip was decent, but MJ thought his Carolina brethren Jerry Stackhouse was better. (I knew that was a mistake day one, BTW) What happened? Rip Hamilton became a highly efficient player and a champion with Detroit.

Deni is definitely the same caliber player.

[badinage]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

[nate33]

Yes, but as doclinkin reiterated, I don't think the Deni of today with Portland would be the same as a Wizard. Avdija blew up only after changing teams, and IMO changing roles and expectations.

I disagree completely.

Deni made a huge leap last season and was posting 19, 9 and 4 for the second half of the season on .600 TS%. His role in Portland isn't really any different. He just got incrementally more efficient so he was given more usage. But he's doing basically the same stuff: pushing it on the fast break, attacking closeouts with that shoulder-bump floater, and running the occasional secondary pick-and-roll. The main difference is that he is hitting the catch-and-shoot 3 better, which would have happened here too. That's just practicing in the gym.

[nate33]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

I agree. I think it's possible that we may have fallen to fourth-worst by catching the Pelicans, but that's the worst it would have gotten.

[badinage]

Chances cooper Flagg is better than this deni we’re watching now? Wiz wasted a full season sucking to get a 14% chance on picking a carbon copy of the player they gave away for peanuts.

Imagine having both. It would be like our own version of Tatum and Brown: two big, versatile, switch-everything big men who can shoot, pass and rebound. Our lineup into next season would look something like this:

PG Poole/AJ
SG Bilal/Smart
SF Avdija/Middleton
PF Flagg/George
C Sarr/Vukcevic

Depth: Kispert, Bey, #23 FRP, Champagne

I would trade Champagne to NY in exchange for increasing the protection on our 2026 pick we owe, and just go out and try and win with that lineup. The only nod to tanking would be to play Smart and Middleton off the bench. That's probably a 35-win team next year unless Sarr or Bilal makes a quick leap into an above-average starter. Two years from now as Sarr fills out and we find a beefy center to complement him, they're a regular playoff team. And our swap rights with Phoenix in 2026 and 2030 may keep us picking in the lottery.

I'd love to watch a positionless 5-man lineup of Avdija, Middleton, Bilal, Flagg, Sarr.

Incredible to think about.

And not at all far-fetched.

The defense alone!

[payitforward]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

I agree. I think it's possible that we may have fallen to fourth-worst by catching the Pelicans, but that's the worst it would have gotten.

Sorry, no. The NBA is not comedy hall theater.

You win as many games as your guys deliver by how they play. If you are saying that Deni wouldn't be worth, say, 9 extra wins for the Wizards -- even though that's a good bet for how many wins his play alone has added to the Portland total this year -- then there's really no discussing anything on an objective basis.

Has Deni been outstanding this year? Yes, he has. Outstanding players increase your win total by a lot.

If you want to argue that we should have kept Deni instead of trading him, go ahead -- his level of play makes that argument worth taking seriously. But if you want to say that playing the way he has played wouldn't add a ton of wins, then there's no need to take your POV seriously.

Either Deni is a good enough player that it would have been worth it to win 9-10 more games this year, or he isn't. If he is, then that's a perfectly legit point of view.

But you can't have it both ways. Sorry.

[payitforward]

Chances cooper Flagg is better than this deni we’re watching now? Wiz wasted a full season sucking to get a 14% chance on picking a carbon copy of the player they gave away for peanuts.

This is bulskit -- but it's of the kind that's worth taking seriously.

1. For starters DukeLecker -- why don't you point to where you said Deni was going to blow up in the way he has?
Oh, you can't do it? Then maybe you should lower your bragging about being able to see what the weather is like today. We can all do that.

2. No one had Deni as anything like the kind of prospect Cooper Flagg is viewed as. No one. Ever.

3. All the same, we have a very small chance of landing Cooper Flagg! We didn't trade Deni for a chance at him.

everybody's got an opinion. If there's real thinking behind it all the better.

[doclinkin]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

I agree. I think it's possible that we may have fallen to fourth-worst by catching the Pelicans, but that's the worst it would have gotten.

Sorry, no. The NBA is not comedy hall theater.

You win as many games as your guys deliver by how they play. If you are saying that Deni wouldn't be worth, say, 9 extra wins for the Wizards -- even though that's a good bet for how many wins his play alone has added to the Portland total this year -- then there's really no discussing anything on an objective basis.

Has Deni been outstanding this year? Yes, he has. Outstanding players increase your win total by a lot.

And it's not just Deni. It's more Deni, less Kuzma. Also less George. Less Bilal. Probably not less Sarr. And we would not have a rookie PG leading the team in minutes.

Unless of course you benched Deni in order to protect your losses. But that sends a worse message to your young players than letting them play all the minutes and living with the losses. If you are going to sit a guy for playing the right way, it dampens the enthusiasm of those players for doing it right.

First you win, then you get good. Players have to see how to win, feel what that tastes like, then learn how to consistently do that thing. But if you win then shut it down you can't build consistency.

I firmly agree with CCJ. You commonly see players breakout with a change of scenery. If Deni was once again playing behind Kuzma or benched for developmental minutes for worse players, a la Rui, I don't see him developing as swiftly he has with the Blazers. But possibly backsliding as he did over his first few years when he was subbed out for worse guys. If you're not trying to win why bother?

This rookie crew is actually trying to win. And they were over the first half of the season. Playing the veteran Valanciunas in a reserve role is not the same as benching a young productive player entering his prime. We played heavy minutes for Kuzma and Poole. We would have played Deni. And won even more when Kuzma was finally traded.

Yes. Deni playing at a near all-star level makes the trade look worse. Today anyway. It may look different after this draft, or next. Some aspects were predictable. Even those who support the trade knew Deni was on the rise. Hoped he'd be a mentor for whomever we got with the #2 and the Gafford pick. Still, the reasoning behind the trade is sound. On a 15 win team nobody is sacred. If the FO gambled that 5 assets were better than a very good young player on a bargain contract. Hey, they rolled the dice. We have yet to see if overall they hit on a winning combination. As of right now it looks like the guy across the table has the numbers. Shrug, we'll see.

[AFM]

It's a good thing we're all just playing GM here. This board would now trade the 1st pick in this draft for Deni Avdija.

By the way, anyone see our previous game? Bub had 32/9/7 on .867 TS%. With only one turnover. He's 19. Too bad he'll never, ever be as good as Deni Avdija.

[payitforward]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

BS mon ami. Better players win more games. Period. There are no exceptions.

Nor do we analyze reality by employing daydreams.

(I feel free to write w/o softeners, b/c you & I are friends!)

[payitforward]

It's a good thing we're all just playing GM here. This board would now trade the 1st pick in this draft for Deni Avdija.

By the way, anyone see our previous game? Bub had 32/9/7 on .867 TS%. With only one turnover. He's 19. Too bad he'll never, ever be as good as Deni Avdija.

HOF post!

[Kanyewest]

Meanwhile, the comments on Wizards reddit in reaction to quote about Bub on Deni.

Why on earth would a 19 year old point guard compare himself to a 24 year old wing?

Why on earth are grown ass adults making this comparison as well?

If you ever go to realgm wizards they have the longest thread going for Deni, pretty sad.

I am ready for realgm vs reddit war.

[payitforward]

I agree. I think it's possible that we may have fallen to fourth-worst by catching the Pelicans, but that's the worst it would have gotten.

Sorry, no. The NBA is not comedy hall theater.

You win as many games as your guys deliver by how they play. If you are saying that Deni wouldn't be worth, say, 9 extra wins for the Wizards -- even though that's a good bet for how many wins his play alone has added to the Portland total this year -- then there's really no discussing anything on an objective basis.

Has Deni been outstanding this year? Yes, he has. Outstanding players increase your win total by a lot.

And it's not just Deni. It's more Deni, less Kuzma. Also less George. Less Bilal. Probably not less Sarr. And we would not have a rookie PG leading the team in minutes.

Unless of course you benched Deni in order to protect your losses. But that sends a worse message to your young players than letting them play all the minutes and living with the losses. If you are going to sit a guy for playing the right way, it dampens the enthusiasm of those players for doing it right.

First you win, then you get good. Players have to see how to win, feel what that tastes like, then learn how to consistently do that thing. But if you win then shut it down you can't build consistency.

I firmly agree with CCJ. You commonly see players breakout with a change of scenery. If Deni was once again playing behind Kuzma or benched for developmental minutes for worse players, a la Rui, I don't see him developing as swiftly he has with the Blazers. But possibly backsliding as he did over his first few years when he was subbed out for worse guys. If you're not trying to win why bother?

This rookie crew is actually trying to win. And they were over the first half of the season. Playing the veteran Valanciunas in a reserve role is not the same as benching a young productive player entering his prime. We played heavy minutes for Kuzma and Poole. We would have played Deni. And won even more when Kuzma was finally traded.

Yes. Deni playing at a near all-star level makes the trade look worse. Today anyway. It may look different after this draft, or next. Some aspects were predictable. Even those who support the trade knew Deni was on the rise. Hoped he'd be a mentor for whomever we got with the #2 and the Gafford pick. Still, the reasoning behind the trade is sound. On a 15 win team nobody is sacred. If the FO gambled that 5 assets were better than a very good young player on a bargain contract. Hey, they rolled the dice. We have yet to see if overall they hit on a winning combination. As of right now it looks like the guy across the table has the numbers. Shrug, we'll see.

Another HOF post.

You know what? It's an awful lot of fun to hang out on this forum. Some of the smartest basketball input I've ever experienced -- & I do not mean just when you guys write something I agree with.

Everyone here gives a sh8t. Everyone here bears down. &, of course, everyone has his own personal dream of how it coulda shoulda woulda been if only.... That's ok too.

Btw, if I'm getting short-tempered on the deni stuff, that's on me, & I apologize. I don't need to give anyone a hard time. We're all just fans -- me, you, & the other guys. Peace!

[payitforward]

Meanwhile, the comments on Wizards reddit in reaction to quote about Bub on Deni.

Why on earth would a 19 year old point guard compare himself to a 24 year old wing?

Why on earth are grown ass adults making this comparison as well?

If you ever go to realgm wizards they have the longest thread going for Deni, pretty sad.

I am ready for realgm vs reddit war.

Let'em sit on a boot heel over there.

Someone point to what Bub said about Deni, please....

[smoothSeph]

At what point are yall ok with moving on? After the draft? Game 36 of next season? 2036?

He’s not here anymore and not coming back. Bad trade or good trade it is what it is at this point.

[badinage]

The assumption that Deni being here would have kept the team out of the Top 3 worst records isn’t true. We see how it’s done — it’s not hard to play well and, oops, fumble away a game in the fourth.

BS mon ami. Better players win more games. Period. There are no exceptions.

Nor do we analyze reality by employing daydreams.

(I feel free to write w/o softeners, b/c you & I are friends!)

Better players can make you a better team — yes, absolutely. Can give you a team with better players — also true.

And it’s also true that a team that wants to lose can find all sorts of ways to lose.

[Kanyewest]

Meanwhile, the comments on Wizards reddit in reaction to quote about Bub on Deni.

Why on earth would a 19 year old point guard compare himself to a 24 year old wing?

Why on earth are grown ass adults making this comparison as well?

If you ever go to realgm wizards they have the longest thread going for Deni, pretty sad.

I am ready for realgm vs reddit war.

Let'em sit on a boot heel over there.

Someone point to what Bub said about Deni, please....

Does Bub Carrington ever compare himself to Deni Avdija? (whom he was traded for on draft night)

“I don’t. I hear that he’s a good player. … Obviously that trade — I didn’t want the trade, Deni didn’t ask for the trade, it’s way above both of us. I ain’t got no beef with Deni.”

Via Varun Shankar of the Washington Post

[Despy]

At what point are yall ok with moving on? After the draft? Game 36 of next season? 2036?

He’s not here anymore and not coming back. Bad trade or good trade it is what it is at this point.

Probably never at this point. For some hes the best wizard player theyve seen which is sad on soo many levels. The guy just inched to 11ppg.

Gotta try to remember my reddit password

[Ed Wood]

There's a now rich and well established tradition of people being intensely weird about Deni by denigrating him to bizarre degrees on the board too. No need for false modesty - this is getting to 80 pages via a deeply collaborative effort.