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Official Trade Thread - Part XXX

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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1581 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:43 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.

I would let Beal walk. He's fragile and not worth a max deal.


Hmm. Two thoughts. One, expirings will not be necessary this off-season because of the massive cap jump. Two, that's a good base but I think Wall could fetch more. (Not that he's necessarily worth more, but he's a second tier star in the same sense that Melo was. Famous and has a reputation that can get teams to overspend for him.)

So I'd hold out for one of another pick, decent extra prospect, or high value contract on top of the Dunn/first package.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1582 » by TGW » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:47 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.


I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1583 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:51 pm

payitforward wrote:if Satoransky actually comes over (season after next)


Kind of a tangent but that's something else I'd do after blowing up the team - sign Sato to as long term a contract as I could. Something like 24million/4 years, enough to make him kiss Europe goodbye and come over to test the NBA waters.

If he's crap, the first half of his contract is in the rebuilding phase where you don't care. And if he's good, you have a nice two year window of competing with him on a really nice contract. He'd also be very tradeable even if he's 'high end backup' quality.

Would be a nice piece to actually have on the board.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1584 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:52 pm

TGW wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.


I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.


Some of CCJ's proposed deals are way undermarket. This isn't so bad... he's basically proposing a top-5 2016 pick and a future unprotected first from a team bad enough to get that top-5 pick.

I would still hold out for more, but that's not peanuts. It's the start of a real package.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1585 » by TGW » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:06 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
TGW wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.


I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.


Some of CCJ's proposed deals are way undermarket. This isn't so bad... he's basically proposing a top-5 2016 pick and a future unprotected first from a team bad enough to get that top-5 pick.

I would still hold out for more, but that's not peanuts. It's the start of a real package.


Sorry, some guy compared to Jordan Clarkson and an unprotected first that may or may not be a high first, let alone an actual good player, is NOT enough for Wall. If you want to trade Wall, you better get a guaranteed stud in return. Not a bunch of maybes, a pick that might be high, or some kid who hasn't proven anything. It's a sure way to cripple your franchise in the present and future. You want to trade Beal for that....fine. Beal doesn't say healthy enough to keep around long-term. But to trade Wall for that package is ludicrous.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1586 » by thricethefun » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:28 pm

TGW wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
TGW wrote:
I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.


Some of CCJ's proposed deals are way undermarket. This isn't so bad... he's basically proposing a top-5 2016 pick and a future unprotected first from a team bad enough to get that top-5 pick.

I would still hold out for more, but that's not peanuts. It's the start of a real package.


Sorry, some guy compared to Jordan Clarkson and an unprotected first that may or may not be a high first, let alone an actual good player, is NOT enough for Wall. If you want to trade Wall, you better get a guaranteed stud in return. Not a bunch of maybes, a pick that might be high, or some kid who hasn't proven anything. It's a sure way to cripple your franchise in the present and future. You want to trade Beal for that....fine. Beal doesn't say healthy enough to keep around long-term. But to trade Wall for that package is ludicrous.


Wall is a borderline superstar. I'm only trading that type of player for a guy that has a good chance to be a borderline superstar. So if some team gets the #1 pick this year and wants to give it for Wall I would consider it to draft Simmons. If the Knicks were willing to give up Porzingis for Wall I would consider it. But if you are getting multiple first round picks that aren't top 2-3 range it just isn't worth it because the chances are good that none of those players will be even close to as good as him.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1587 » by likwitdesi » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Given that D. Russell is a pariah in the Lakers' locker room, would a S+T of Beal for Russell and Larry Nance Jr. work with both teams having max cap room?
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Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1588 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:58 pm

TGW wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.


I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.


:)

Your hate is strong!

I did say that about Smart and I was wrong.

I should have said Isaiah Thomas, who owns Wall. He's defeated John 9 of 10 meetings.

You're an idiot to say I would do worse than Grunfeld. Your hate only enhances your stupidity. It's been a while sense I've embarrassed you but it's nice of you to poke at me when I'm feeling energetic enough to respond.


No, TGW, I would do better than EG.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1589 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:15 pm

thricethefun wrote:Wall is a borderline superstar. I'm only trading that type of player for a guy that has a good chance to be a borderline superstar. So if some team gets the #1 pick this year and wants to give it for Wall I would consider it to draft Simmons. If the Knicks were willing to give up Porzingis for Wall I would consider it. But if you are getting multiple first round picks that aren't top 2-3 range it just isn't worth it because the chances are good that none of those players will be even close to as good as him.


That is indeed what many people think about Wall. Unfortunately, Wall's poor shot selection and turnovers prevent it from being true.

But since he is viewed as a superstar, then I do agree with twisting arms until someone gives a superstar package! That's why I think 2 high picks isn't enough, only the start of a good package.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1590 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:20 pm

TGW wrote:Sorry, some guy compared to Jordan Clarkson and an unprotected first that may or may not be a high first, let alone an actual good player, is NOT enough for Wall. If you want to trade Wall, you better get a guaranteed stud in return. Not a bunch of maybes, a pick that might be high, or some kid who hasn't proven anything. It's a sure way to cripple your franchise in the present and future. You want to trade Beal for that....fine. Beal doesn't say healthy enough to keep around long-term. But to trade Wall for that package is ludicrous.


Teams rarely swap stars. If you're holding out for that, it could be a while. Most of the time teams are either looking to move stars for picks, or move young players/picks for stars. "Sure thing" swaps are exceedingly rare. And how would that actually help the team rebuild?

Do you mean that you'd want a Simmons/Ingram type of young stud?

And also, I agreed that it wasn't enough for me to make that swap. I just thought it was actually a decent start to a deal.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1591 » by TGW » Wed Mar 30, 2016 5:21 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
TGW wrote:Sorry, some guy compared to Jordan Clarkson and an unprotected first that may or may not be a high first, let alone an actual good player, is NOT enough for Wall. If you want to trade Wall, you better get a guaranteed stud in return. Not a bunch of maybes, a pick that might be high, or some kid who hasn't proven anything. It's a sure way to cripple your franchise in the present and future. You want to trade Beal for that....fine. Beal doesn't say healthy enough to keep around long-term. But to trade Wall for that package is ludicrous.


Teams rarely swap stars. If you're holding out for that, it could be a while. Most of the time teams are either looking to move stars for picks, or move young players/picks for stars. "Sure thing" swaps are exceedingly rare. And how would that actually help the team rebuild?

Do you mean that you'd want a Simmons/Ingram type of young stud?

And also, I agreed that it wasn't enough for me to make that swap. I just thought it was actually a decent start to a deal.


There's a difference between getting Simmons and Ingram, who would go top 1/2 in almost any draft, and taking a guy who would go maybe 10-15th in a good draft. It's a huge difference in talent--forget where they are picked because this draft past the second pick is a crapshoot.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1592 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:10 pm

TGW wrote:There's a difference between getting Simmons and Ingram, who would go top 1/2 in almost any draft, and taking a guy who would go maybe 10-15th in a good draft. It's a huge difference in talent--forget where they are picked because this draft past the second pick is a crapshoot.


Sure, that's fair. I would be concerned that Wall won't fetch a Simmons/Ingram type #1 dude, but it's worth trying for.

I think where we differ is that I'm valuing the extra picks a little higher, in that if they came from a team bad enough for a top-5 pick in this weaker draft, it's likely at least one of the extras will be top-5 in a stronger one. For some reason, bad teams and bad organizations tend to stay bad. >.> And we have empirical evidence that Wall can't make a bad team good. :banghead:
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1593 » by TGW » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:19 pm

Illuminaire wrote:
TGW wrote:There's a difference between getting Simmons and Ingram, who would go top 1/2 in almost any draft, and taking a guy who would go maybe 10-15th in a good draft. It's a huge difference in talent--forget where they are picked because this draft past the second pick is a crapshoot.


Sure, that's fair. I would be concerned that Wall won't fetch a Simmons/Ingram type #1 dude, but it's worth trying for.

I think where we differ is that I'm valuing the extra picks a little higher, in that if they came from a team bad enough for a top-5 pick in this weaker draft, it's likely at least one of the extras will be top-5 in a stronger one. For some reason, bad teams and bad organizations tend to stay bad. >.> And we have empirical evidence that Wall can't make a bad team good. :banghead:


I'd like to see that evidence, because IMO the roster has been underwhelming ever since Wall was drafted. It was underwhelming when they made the playoffs too. Other than Gortat, everyone else on the team has pretty much been average at best. JW has been the team's only all-star the past few years.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1594 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 6:26 pm

TSW made a post a few days ago where he showed that the Wizards supporting cast around Wall has been effectively average. Wall has an average sum of talent around him and the result is average. A few years back he had a worse group, and the result was a 23, 20, and 29 wins.

That seems like a fair bit of evidence to me.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1595 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 30, 2016 7:59 pm

Beal for D'Angelo Russell? Apparently there's an immaturity factor with Russell, but he's just 20. I assume we can do a sign and trade. The Lakers are going to have a ton of cap room, so they can do it. What it does is give us 3 more years to avoid paying max free agent prices for our shooting guard. And taking away the ball-handling duties from Russell probably helps him focus on what he was great at at Ohio State - scoring. He's much more a 2 than a 1.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1596 » by pcbothwel » Wed Mar 30, 2016 8:37 pm

Ruz,
I would consider that simply because of the flexibility if provides us. But for a guy with great vision like Russell, he turns it over a lot. And for a guy with as great a shot he has, he is shooting 73% from the line.
So you have a guy with below average athleticism, small size (for a SG), who doesnt do well defensively, turns it over a lot and shoots a poor FT% (strong correlation to shooting ability). He is far from a shoe-in.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1597 » by The Consiglieri » Wed Mar 30, 2016 9:53 pm

TGW wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:At this point I would trade Wall for the rights to Kris Dunn, expiring deals and a future first.


I'm sure you would. You also said you'd trade Wall for Marcus Smart and a pick.

At least we know there's someone out there who would do a worse job than Grunfeld.

*edit* and yes, I'm putting you on ignore. No need to even say it.


Let's be fair here though, yes CCJ has never liked Wall, but I also know that his 2010-2011 draft day haul would have included Cousins, and Faried (front court issues solved), and then he'd have a 17th overall pick, and 35th from '10, the 6th and 34th from '11 (Dont remember who he wanted with those picks), the third in '12 (cant remember if he would have grabbed Beal, Drummond or Robinson), I am fairly certain his wish list was either Crowder or Barton with that 32nd pick, both of which would have been steals, the third pick in '13 and our second rounder (he wouldn't have thrown that away), wouldn't have dealt away the clarkson pick in '14 (don't remember if he would have taken Clarkson,but I know he wouldn't have traded the pick) and both picks in '15 (I think he was in line with the consensus to go with Portis).

CCJ's track record with picks is quite strong, with the occasional head scratcher, his Wall distaste has always been a bit odd, but somewhat understandable, he saw Cousins as a transformative elite big man, as did I, and preferred him, as almost did I (the knucklehead issues made him unavailable to me). He was right about Cousins, kind of wrong about Wall, and is sticking with that a bit. He also absolutely nailed Faried.

If nothing else, the team would fundamentally be better with picks made by CCJ from '09-'15 just as it would be by most of us.

My picks good and bad:
'09: Curry or Rubio (i leaned Rubio, but probably would have gone Curry because Curry wasn't a strict PG only type) and Blair.
'10: Wall, Seraphin and Lawal
'11: Leonard (i preferred to trade up for kantner), Faried (i kept flipping between Faried, Harris, Butler, Motiejunas, Mirotic and Singleton, Faried impressed me in the tourney)
'12: Drummond or Beal (charlotte saved me from Kidd-Gilchrist, who had above both of them), Miller, Barton, Crowder, D. Lamb, and Denmon were my 2nd round guys, and I stupidly had Q Miller above crowder and Barton
'13: Noel (i had anthony bennett #3 after Noel and Oladipo, dodged a bullet there like in '12, and I had Mitchell, Wolters, Withey and Muscala as the target at 2nd round slot. Probably go Wolters
'14: Was against the Gortat deal so protested this draft, paying zero attention whatsoever.
'15: Portis was my pick until I found out about the Oubre option. He was a top 8-10 recruit from the '14 class, and I was perfectly fine with aiming high with him, though I would have preferred moving up for Winslow, Turner or Lyles.

For sure, what's interesting is how the core would evolve, Rubio or Curry would have changed the '10 pick to Cousins, with Leonard Faried, Cousins, and Curry, would not take Drummond in '12, would go with Beal, in '13, with Cousins, and Faried up front, no need for Noel, and then I catastrophically make the Bennett pick (which is funny because just as I had the biggest bust up so high, I also had Gobert, and Giannis higher than virtually anybody, very much hit and miss).

Its impossible to predict how things evolve because different selections push forward different future slots, but it's clear that both CCJ, myself, and virtually everyone here would have built a better team than what we actually have if for no other reason than virtually none of us (there are exceptions, but not many) would have screwed the pooch so thoroughly with the '09, and '11 drafts. That was where the roots of the current debacle lay, two top 6 picks, this board collectively: about 90-95% of us wanted players vastly superior to what we got, particularly in '11 where the consensus seemed to be Leonard, Faried, Harris, Walker, (there was at least one poster who was as crazy as I was with Bennett, liking Marcus Morris), Vucevic,Mirotic, basically the board would have hit big with the 2nd first rounder, and probably with the first as well since I think Leonard had a majority of support with the 6 slot.

Add in that the board would have likely gone Curry (with some posters going another direction due to having more faith in Arenas coming back again from injury) with that '09 pick and it's truly horrifying to think about.

As a west coast Wiz fan/victim from the bay its incredibly fascinating to see the parallel's with both teams falling apart around the same time, both teams bottling rebuilds in the mid-nineties and early aughts with horrible trades and draft picks, both experiencing tiny blips of success in the mid-aughts, only to both crater by '09, and then you see that with virtually identical records in '09, you can see where Golden State got there rebuild so right, even while totally bollocking up picks and never landing a truly top pick, while we landed 3 top 3 picks (5 total top 6 picks), and ended up blowing things badly in every way possible (terrible selections, terrible trades, terrible usage of assets and team building). We could have been the warriors now, actually better because we had better assets to work with in terms of picks, and yet the Warriors did a better job of it with virtually every asset they had. Very depressing.
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1598 » by Ruzious » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:18 pm

But would you have picked Karl Malone over Kenny Green and Clyde Drexler over Jeff Malone?
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1599 » by Illuminaire » Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:23 pm

It's probably fair to knock CCJ for some of his trade ideas - he tends to undersell players he doesn't love - but his scouting acumen has always been impressive.

Also, it's weird to talk about a man who is standing in the same virtual room. Uh... hey man... how goes? :P
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Re: Official Trade Thread - Part XXX 

Post#1600 » by Ruzious » Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:08 am

payitforward wrote:Ruz: look forward to seeing the plan. There are probably some posters here who don't enjoy this kind of stuff -- but I do. Maybe we should have a "post your plan" thread? Call it something like "The Wiz: From Here to Where?"

Dudley: I don't think you can get players for the minimum who produce at his level and will give you the almost 2200 minutes we'll have gotten from him; I think that's unrealistic. I probably overestimate what he'll earn in my post above, but it'll likely be *more* not less than he earned this year.

Play him at the 3, and he is considerably above average. In fact, he's played some 2 for a good part of his career. If he were the primary backup at both wing positions, we could hardly do better. We've played him mostly at the 4, which makes no sense.

Had we signed Biyombo last off season, and not bothered w/ Anderson or Neal, and not made the trade for Morris, we'd have had roster room for a young 4 like Alan Williams, we'd have been a better team and had a better record, and we'd have a mid-R1 pick in the upcoming draft.

It's amazing how quickly the soup tastes bad once Ernie starts p#ssing in it.

Ok PIF, I spent a good/bad half hour plus on this, so hopefully it's not terrible or completely unrealistic. It does involve getting a lot younger, fwiw. I'm assuming a 92 mil cap because that's the last I heard.

Trades: Gortat for moves that net us 3 2nd round picks - 1 high and 2 mediums. Even an Ernie Grunfeld should be able to do that.
With those 3 picks, going by where draftexpress has them, I pick: Brice Johnson (33), Caris LaVert (40), and Monte Morris (43). I guesstimated the rookies cost 1,200,000 each.

Sign 2 free agents and Beal: Whiteside at the full 25% of the cap = 23 million. And Sullinger - I'm guessing at a contract starting at 10 million. He should actually cost less, because he had a disappointing season. But I think he can turn things around - especially if he gets his weight down. Jones from Houston is an alternative. I just made a guess for Beal at 18 mil.

Sign Sato to a multi-year deal starting at 4 million.

Sign 2 veteran minimum players. Hey, we have 2 guys like that - Thornton and Hickson make sense. By rule, you can go over the cap to sign them.

That gives us 13 players. You can fill the other 2 spots as needed with D League types. Roster is:

Wall 16,957,900
Sato 4,000,000
Morris 1,200,000
Beal 18,000,000
LaVert 1,200,000
Oubre 2,066,640
Porter 5,893,981
Morris 7,400,000
Sullinger 10,000,000
Johnson 1,200,000
Whiteside 23,000,000
Hickson
Thornton

It comes to 90,918,521 plus the minimum salary players. I think it's a good young balanced roster. Not a championship team but a team that could get around 50 wins and continue getting better.
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