Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[payitforward]

Still... I do love the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen.

How about Rui Hachimura, Moe Wagner, Chicago's R2 pick, &... something more for Allen?

Who says no?

Edit: or Rui Hachimura & Thomas Bryant for Allen? Would they be tempted?

[Ruzious]

Still... I do love the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen.

How about Rui Hachimura, Moe Wagner, Chicago's R2 pick, &... something more for Allen?

Who says no?

Edit: or Rui Hachimura & Thomas Bryant for Allen? Would they be tempted?

And get them to throw in Musa.

[badinage]

Hells to the no.

Allen is pretty good, but not, clearly, a center who changes the game. (How many are there in that category, anyway?) He rarely plays more than 26 minutes a game. The Nets are mediocre.

Hach has a higher ceiling, and, in the modern NBA, you can put him on the court for longer. I think he’ll become more effective as a scorer as time goes bye. The R2 pick is something not to be surrendered at this point. And why give up Wagner, who in limited minutes has proven to be very effective?

[Ruzious]

Hells to the no.

Allen is pretty good, but not, clearly, a center who changes the game. (How many are there in that category, anyway?) He rarely plays more than 26 minutes a game. The Nets are mediocre.

Hach has a higher ceiling, and, in the modern NBA, you can put him on the court for longer. I think he’ll become more effective as a scorer as time goes bye. The R2 pick is something not to be surrendered at this point. And why give up Wagner, who in limited minutes has proven to be very effective?

You understand why he's averaging just 25 plus minutes a game - DeAndre Jordan was acquired to make his buddies - Kevin and Kyrie - happy. I agree he's not a game-changer, but neither is Rui - by any stretch of the imagination. And Wagner's been mediocre at best since the beginning of the season. The Wiz desperately need interior defense and rebounding, and Allen can provide a lot of that. Rui's actually slightly older than Allen, and there's no reason to think he'll ever be in Allen's league as a defender or rebounder. Rui definitely has trade value, and I understand people liking him - he can become a good player because he works hard - but I just don't see the big-time talent that many think he has.

[gambitx777]

That's way too much I would offer Bryant for Allen and see if they bite on a swap. Two good young centers who just goo different things well. They have a DeAndre Jordan. Bryant would fit well for them off the bench and Allen help our interior D issues.

Still... I do love the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen.

How about Rui Hachimura, Moe Wagner, Chicago's R2 pick, &... something more for Allen?

Who says no?

Edit: or Rui Hachimura & Thomas Bryant for Allen? Would they be tempted?

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[wall_glizzy]

No. We have no more TPEs. All the same... those are all great ideas. Come up with some more of them! You're "thinking out of the box;" keep it up!

We have three, from the Sato, Mcrae, and IT trades. They're all in the ballpark of $1.5 million though, so unlikely (by my understanding of how TPEs can be used) to be of particular value.

[nate33]

Hells to the no.

Allen is pretty good, but not, clearly, a center who changes the game. (How many are there in that category, anyway?) He rarely plays more than 26 minutes a game. The Nets are mediocre.

Hach has a higher ceiling, and, in the modern NBA, you can put him on the court for longer. I think he’ll become more effective as a scorer as time goes bye. The R2 pick is something not to be surrendered at this point. And why give up Wagner, who in limited minutes has proven to be very effective?

I agree.

Allen is a solid player and I'd say he's better than Hachimura at the moment, but I think Hachimura projects to be a better player. No-offense centers have a limited role in today's game and can rarely be on the floor in crunch time minutes. They're just not THAT valuable. Every summer, you can find a free agent center for the MLE (or less) who can give you 95% of what Allen gives you. Why not just acquire Nerlens Noel or Robin Lopez with the MLE?

Meanwhile, Hachimura projects to be the most coveted type of player positionally - a long, mobile forward with a strong base. He can guard (or will be able to guard) the 3, 4 or 5 and can hold his own when switched onto a guard. Those kinds of guys are very rare, and the teams that have them ultimately succeed. Think Pascal Siakam, PJ Tucker, OG Anunoby, Paul Millsap, Justice Winslow, or a poor man's Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green. I think Hachimura will ultimately have that type of defensive versatility.

Offensively, as he hones his 3-point shot, he'll be a respectable floor spacer who is good enough in the paint to punish a team if they switch a guard onto him. A best case scenario is that he develops an unstoppable midrange shot that he can get whenever he wants a la Kawhi Leonard.

[payitforward]

Both these responses are off in about every possible way. In fact, I wrote one of my usual screeds proving that point, 500 plus words, but... I'm doing everyone a favor & not posting it! (sound of applause...)

The 2 main points were a) you are way way underestimating Jarrett Allen, & b) you are rating Rui on the hopes we have for him which there's no real reason to be confident he will fulfill (he may, of course).

[payitforward]

Hey, I realize that I completely derailed the discussion of trading for Jarrett Allen by suggesting it be Rui we traded. There's a lot of emotive response to anything about Rui, & that led to a couple of responses that, to me at least, seemed as if they had to downgrade J.A. out of loyalty to R.H.

But, of course, there is no connection between the two guys! For which reason I'd like to look at Allen w/o reference to Rui. Let's see if you agree that he'd be a terrific target for us -- if he were available -- for a different trade package not including Hachimura.

Keep in mind that this is what I was responding to --

we "... absolutely need a rebounding & defense focused starter at the spot next year.... Find a way to leverage some of these fellow young assets & 2nd rd picks into Jarrett Allen - the Nets are committing to old DeAndre to appease Durant and Kyrie....

I don't think we get Allen for a (as nate always calls it) poo poo platter of meh assets. I doubt they're willing to trade him at all. But, if they were, he'd be a really great get. Here's why:

1. After a deep dive into his numbers, I am pretty sure he's the best young Center in the league. Now, for context, keep in mind that Jarrett Allen is still only 21 years old. He's a couple of months younger than Rui Hachimura. There will be a lot of guys drafted in June who are older than him.

2. The guy he is most like is... Rudy Gobert. It's true! Their numbers are amazingly close, although (in his 7th season) Gobert's are just a touch better overall.

3. Before looking at numbers, let me acknowledge that Gobert is the best defensive Center in the league according DRPM. Unless Allen also ranked high in that metric, it would be fair to question the comparison. But, he does: if we are looking at 25+ minute-a-game players, Allen is only 4 below Gobert on the same list -- i.e. he's the 5th best defensive Center in the league. And, I remind you, he's 21 years old!

4. On all the usual non-scoring numbers (defensive & offensive boards, assists, steals, TOs, block & fouls), their numbers are eerily close, with Allen having a marginal overall lead.

5. On scoring, Gobert gets .9 more points than Allen per 40 minutes on identical usage -- so his TS% is 70% compared to Allen at 65.8% (also great). But, Gobert is in his 7th year, his prime! On his career, his TS% is the same as Allen's at 21 years old.

In short, those are some really great numbers posted by this 21-year old kid.

So... my thought is that if you can drop from your thoughts the idea of trading Rui for him, now what do you think of the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen -- & what would you think of giving for him?

[nate33]

So... my thought is that if you can drop from your thoughts the idea of trading Rui for him, now what do you think of the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen -- & what would you think of giving for him?

I'm pretty nervous about sacrificing significant assets to acquire a guy who will be a free agent after 1 more season in a market where lots of teams will have cap room. Chances are, we'd be forced to spend max money or near max money to retain him - and that's unwise for a center other than Embid, Jokic or Davis.

Recent history suggests that it's just not worth it to have one-dimensional centers on expensive contracts. Guys like Steven Adams and Andre Drummond ultimately turned out to be negative value contracts. Even Rudy Gobert seems to get played off the floor in the playoffs and Utah is going to have to do some soul searching on whether or not it's worth it to pay him a max contract to retain him. Clint Capela is another guy that Houston decided to offload because he can't stay on the floor in the playoffs.

So instead of sacrificing multiple 1sts and a max contract for Allen, I'd much rather just acquire Nerlens Noel or Robin Lopez for the MLE or less.

[Ruzious]

Hells to the no.

Allen is pretty good, but not, clearly, a center who changes the game. (How many are there in that category, anyway?) He rarely plays more than 26 minutes a game. The Nets are mediocre.

Hach has a higher ceiling, and, in the modern NBA, you can put him on the court for longer. I think he’ll become more effective as a scorer as time goes bye. The R2 pick is something not to be surrendered at this point. And why give up Wagner, who in limited minutes has proven to be very effective?

I agree.

Allen is a solid player and I'd say he's better than Hachimura at the moment, but I think Hachimura projects to be a better player. No-offense centers have a limited role in today's game and can rarely be on the floor in crunch time minutes. They're just not THAT valuable. Every summer, you can find a free agent center for the MLE (or less) who can give you 95% of what Allen gives you. Why not just acquire Nerlens Noel or Robin Lopez with the MLE?

Meanwhile, Hachimura projects to be the most coveted type of player positionally - a long, mobile forward with a strong base. He can guard (or will be able to guard) the 3, 4 or 5 and can hold his own when switched onto a guard. Those kinds of guys are very rare, and the teams that have them ultimately succeed. Think Pascal Siakam, PJ Tucker, OG Anunoby, Paul Millsap, Justice Winslow, or a poor man's Kawhi Leonard or Draymond Green. I think Hachimura will ultimately have that type of defensive versatility.

Offensively, as he hones his 3-point shot, he'll be a respectable floor spacer who is good enough in the paint to punish a team if they switch a guard onto him. A best case scenario is that he develops an unstoppable midrange shot that he can get whenever he wants a la Kawhi Leonard.

We usually agree, but this is one where we don't. I wish I saw the defensive ability you see in him. I don't. He certainly doesn't have the footwork on the perimeter to play 3's, and while he has solid length, he doesn't know how to use it - as evidenced by how few blocks he has while always going for fakes and never using them on offense. I'd like to say some of it is inexperience, but really - either ya got it or ya don't - and he don't. Near the basket, players shoot right over the top of him.

What he is - is a poor man's Juwan Howard - and I wasn't crazy for the real Juwan Howard. He's a good mid-range shooter - and that's not what works well in today's game. The one thing I really liked about his game is he will attack the rim - but he gets so many of his shots blocked against better athletes - he's 6'8 with average explosion and never pump-fakes. Yes, he showed some ability to hit 3's in one of the international tournaments, but he never did in college, and he's rarely done it in the NBA. His shot is relatively flat - which makes it harder - Rashard Lewis is the only player I remember with that flat a shot that was also a good 3 point shooter.

I'd like to be wrong - particularly about his defense. Even with coronavirus shutting down the season, Carmelo Anthony is probably scoring on him right now. Great kid and a hard worker.

[payitforward]

... what do you think of the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen -- & what would you think of giving for him?

I'm pretty nervous about sacrificing significant assets to acquire a guy who will be a free agent after 1 more season in a market where lots of teams will have cap room. Chances are, we'd be forced to spend max money or near max money to retain him - and that's unwise for a center other than Embid, Jokic or Davis.

Recent history suggests that it's just not worth it to have one-dimensional centers on expensive contracts. Guys like Steven Adams and Andre Drummond ultimately turned out to be negative value contracts. Even Rudy Gobert seems to get played off the floor in the playoffs and Utah is going to have to do some soul searching on whether or not it's worth it to pay him a max contract to retain him. Clint Capela is another guy that Houston decided to offload because he can't stay on the floor in the playoffs.

So instead of sacrificing multiple 1sts and a max contract for Allen, I'd much rather just acquire Nerlens Noel or Robin Lopez for the MLE or less.

Independent of whether we traded for Allen (who has 2 more seasons before free agency, I think?), I'd be happy to sign Nerlens Noel at a reasonable salary.

Here's what I don't understand: if you are right in thinking that the Center position (at least as played by someone like Allen -- or Capela or even Gobert) has been devalued in its impact on the game, then why won't it be devalued economically as well? Won't NBA front offices start paying them less? For that matter, won't they begin to be drafted lower as well.

In that case, why would it cost max money or near max money to retain a guy like Allen? In fact, if Centers have value along the lines you suggest, won't trade values drop as well b/c of less competition to get these guys?

In that case, why would anyone have to sacrifice significant assets to trade for a guy like Jarrett Allen? Maybe the OP is right, & we can get him for R2 picks & some other stuff.

It'll be interesting to follow this issue. Btw, though I'm probably misremembering, I thought you were interested in trading for Clint Capela earlier this season...? Ditto Myles Turner? Did I have that wrong?

I guess one other thing: given that Bryant is judged to be deficient b/c of bad defense, i.e. we can't count him as part of our core (if I'm not misrepresenting what you posted a week or so ago), it starts to become difficult to see what kind of Center actually is valuable. Maybe no kind? Well... maybe a guy with Bryant's offense & Allen's defense!

[nate33]

... what do you think of the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen -- & what would you think of giving for him?

I'm pretty nervous about sacrificing significant assets to acquire a guy who will be a free agent after 1 more season in a market where lots of teams will have cap room. Chances are, we'd be forced to spend max money or near max money to retain him - and that's unwise for a center other than Embid, Jokic or Davis.

Recent history suggests that it's just not worth it to have one-dimensional centers on expensive contracts. Guys like Steven Adams and Andre Drummond ultimately turned out to be negative value contracts. Even Rudy Gobert seems to get played off the floor in the playoffs and Utah is going to have to do some soul searching on whether or not it's worth it to pay him a max contract to retain him. Clint Capela is another guy that Houston decided to offload because he can't stay on the floor in the playoffs.

So instead of sacrificing multiple 1sts and a max contract for Allen, I'd much rather just acquire Nerlens Noel or Robin Lopez for the MLE or less.

Independent of whether we traded for Allen (who has 2 more seasons before free agency, I think?), I'd be happy to sign Nerlens Noel at a reasonable salary.

Here's what I don't understand: if you are right in thinking that the Center position (at least as played by someone like Allen -- or Capela or even Gobert) has been devalued in its impact on the game, then why won't it be devalued economically as well? Won't NBA front offices start paying them less? For that matter, won't they begin to be drafted lower as well.

In that case, why would it cost max money or near max money to retain a guy like Allen? In fact, if Centers have value along the lines you suggest, won't trade values drop as well b/c of less competition to get these guys?

In that case, why would anyone have to sacrifice significant assets to trade for a guy like Jarrett Allen? Maybe the OP is right, & we can get him for R2 picks & some other stuff.

It'll be interesting to follow this issue. Btw, though I'm probably misremembering, I thought you were interested in trading for Clint Capela earlier this season...? Ditto Myles Turner? Did I have that wrong?

I guess one other thing: given that Bryant is judged to be deficient b/c of bad defense, i.e. we can't count him as part of our core (if I'm not misrepresenting what you posted a week or so ago), it starts to become difficult to see what kind of Center actually is valuable. Maybe no kind? Well... maybe a guy with Bryant's offense & Allen's defense!

I was indeed interested in Capela. His $17M a year contract was a big high, but not too much. And given our desperate need for interior defense, I thought it was justifiable.

If Allen would cost only $17M, I'd be okay with it. I just fear someone will give him $25M a year. I think the dynamics of the 2021 offseason is going to result in a lot of overpayments.

[nate33]

We usually agree, but this is one where we don't. I wish I saw the defensive ability you see in him. I don't. He certainly doesn't have the footwork on the perimeter to play 3's, and while he has solid length, he doesn't know how to use it - as evidenced by how few blocks he has while always going for fakes and never using them on offense. I'd like to say some of it is inexperience, but really - either ya got it or ya don't - and he don't. Near the basket, players shoot right over the top of him.

What he is - is a poor man's Juwan Howard - and I wasn't crazy for the real Juwan Howard. He's a good mid-range shooter - and that's not what works well in today's game. The one thing I really liked about his game is he will attack the rim - but he gets so many of his shots blocked against better athletes - he's 6'8 with average explosion and never pump-fakes. Yes, he showed some ability to hit 3's in one of the international tournaments, but he never did in college, and he's rarely done it in the NBA. His shot is relatively flat - which makes it harder - Rashard Lewis is the only player I remember with that flat a shot that was also a good 3 point shooter.

I'd like to be wrong - particularly about his defense. Even with coronavirus shutting down the season, Carmelo Anthony is probably scoring on him right now. Great kid and a hard worker.

While I would have agreed with this take over the first 25 games of the season, I think Hachimura has shown MASSIVE improvement defensively since returning from injury. He has been our 3rd most reliable player since then, and Brooks won't take him off the floor in crunch time. His +/- since his return has been positive (+0.3), which is much better than the -8.2 he was posting in his first 25 games. (He's also shot 40% from 3-point range since his return.)

[DCZards]

We usually agree, but this is one where we don't. I wish I saw the defensive ability you see in him. I don't. He certainly doesn't have the footwork on the perimeter to play 3's, and while he has solid length, he doesn't know how to use it - as evidenced by how few blocks he has while always going for fakes and never using them on offense. I'd like to say some of it is inexperience, but really - either ya got it or ya don't - and he don't. Near the basket, players shoot right over the top of him.

What he is - is a poor man's Juwan Howard - and I wasn't crazy for the real Juwan Howard. He's a good mid-range shooter - and that's not what works well in today's game. The one thing I really liked about his game is he will attack the rim - but he gets so many of his shots blocked against better athletes - he's 6'8 with average explosion and never pump-fakes. Yes, he showed some ability to hit 3's in one of the international tournaments, but he never did in college, and he's rarely done it in the NBA. His shot is relatively flat - which makes it harder - Rashard Lewis is the only player I remember with that flat a shot that was also a good 3 point shooter.

I'd like to be wrong - particularly about his defense. Even with coronavirus shutting down the season, Carmelo Anthony is probably scoring on him right now. Great kid and a hard worker.

While I would have agreed with this take over the first 25 games of the season, I think Hachimura has shown MASSIVE improvement defensively since returning from injury. He has been our 3rd most reliable player since then, and Brooks won't take him off the floor in crunch time. His +/- since his return has been positive (+0.3), which is much better than the -8.2 he was posting in his first 25 games. (He's also shot 40% from 3-point range since his return.)

Rui is also using pump fakes more often. He's not using them enough...but you can see that he's learning the value/importance of pump fakes. He will likely never be an explosive athlete but Rui has no problem being physical and trying to bully people in the paint. With more time in the weight room that bullying will pay off in more buckets.

I agree that Rui's shot is flat...the midrange jumper that supposed to be his bread-and-butter hasn't been there lately. However, there's still a place for a good midrange jumper in today's analytics-driven NBA. Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and DeMar Derozan continue to prove that.

Rui needs to become a better ballhandler so that he can use the dribble to get to those spots on the floor where he can get his midrange jumper off.

[prime1time]

Still... I do love the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen.

How about Rui Hachimura, Moe Wagner, Chicago's R2 pick, &... something more for Allen?

Who says no?

Edit: or Rui Hachimura & Thomas Bryant for Allen? Would they be tempted?

We say no. Guys like Jarrett Allen can easily be found. And the team obviously believes in Rui. Just because you don't doesn't impact how the team values him.

[payitforward]

If you think that players like Jarrett Allen are easily acquired, it's hard to take your comment seriously.

If you think that "I believe in X" -- whatever X is -- is evidence that what you believe in is true, no rational conversation on the subject is possible.

Then there's the fact that you didn't bother to read the thread, viz.:

Hey, I realize that I completely derailed the discussion of trading for Jarrett Allen by suggesting it be Rui we traded. There's a lot of emotive response to anything about Rui, & that led to a couple of responses that, to me at least, seemed as if they had to downgrade J.A. out of loyalty to R.H.

But, of course, there is no connection between the two guys! For which reason I'd like to look at Allen w/o reference to Rui. Let's see if you agree that he'd be a terrific target for us -- if he were available -- for a different trade package not including Hachimura.

Keep in mind that this is what I was responding to --

we "... absolutely need a rebounding & defense focused starter at the spot next year.... Find a way to leverage some of these fellow young assets & 2nd rd picks into Jarrett Allen - the Nets are committing to old DeAndre to appease Durant and Kyrie....

I don't think we get Allen for a (as nate always calls it) poo poo platter of meh assets. I doubt they're willing to trade him at all. But, if they were, he'd be a really great get. Here's why:

1. After a deep dive into his numbers, I am pretty sure he's the best young Center in the league. Now, for context, keep in mind that Jarrett Allen is still only 21 years old. He's a couple of months younger than Rui Hachimura. There will be a lot of guys drafted in June who are older than him.

2. The guy he is most like is... Rudy Gobert. It's true! Their numbers are amazingly close, although (in his 7th season) Gobert's are just a touch better overall.

3. Before looking at numbers, let me acknowledge that Gobert is the best defensive Center in the league according DRPM. Unless Allen also ranked high in that metric, it would be fair to question the comparison. But, he does: if we are looking at 25+ minute-a-game players, Allen is only 4 below Gobert on the same list -- i.e. he's the 5th best defensive Center in the league. And, I remind you, he's 21 years old!

4. On all the usual non-scoring numbers (defensive & offensive boards, assists, steals, TOs, block & fouls), their numbers are eerily close, with Allen having a marginal overall lead.

5. On scoring, Gobert gets .9 more points than Allen per 40 minutes on identical usage -- so his TS% is 70% compared to Allen at 65.8% (also great). But, Gobert is in his 7th year, his prime! On his career, his TS% is the same as Allen's at 21 years old.

In short, those are some really great numbers posted by this 21-year old kid.

So... my thought is that if you can drop from your thoughts the idea of trading Rui for him, now what do you think of the idea of acquiring Jarrett Allen -- & what would you think of giving for him?

All that said, if no one is interested in the guy, fine... nothing to discuss. It was just an idea. Move on to another one!

[prime1time]

I stand by my comment. Non-skilled big men that protect the rim and can finish at the hoop efficiently are a dime a dozen. Jarrett Allen was drafted at 22, why would we trade Rui who the team loves and Bryant who, although he had a disappointing, season for him? What's the difference between Jarrett Allen and Mitchell Robinson? Robinson was drafted in the 2nd round. Now can we easily go out and find a player like that right now? No. But can they be found for relative pennies on the dollar if you look? Yes. So I stand by my comment. You've never like Rui from the moment we've drafted him and this has permeated each of your comments.

Why would we trade a likely 1st or 2nd team rookie who we love for a guy who will soon be overpaid? I have to wonder if your trade proposal should be taken seriously. I'd rather go small like Houston than trade for Allen tbh.

[payitforward]

Mitchell Robinson -- another terrific player.

Be nice if you read what I wrote before claiming to have the slightest idea of who I "like" or "don't like." Then again, it doesn't much matter given the more serious matters at hand these days.

Yet, why wouldn't I like Rui Hachimura? He seems exceptionally likable. Perhaps you mean that I don't think he can become a really good NBA player? Yet, I've written more times than I can count that he "has a shot to be an outstanding NBA player," so... why would you think that?

OTOH, no, I don't think picking Rui was the optimal move to make using the #9 pick last year; I think the optimal move was to trade down. I've also specified the trade I'd have made (if possible -- it works in the context of history, but that doesn't ensure that it could have been made) & the players I'd have taken, both of whom have been better than Rui already.

You don't have to agree; in fact, when outcomes prove me right, you don't even have to remember! &, I'm pretty sure you won't. Why bother -- it just ain't that important. But, in any case, none of that means I don't like Rui Hachimura.

As to where Allen was drafted -- are you kidding? What difference does that make? Anthony Bennett was drafted #1, Otto #3, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, KC-P & Trey Burke from #4 through #10. Michael Carter-Williams was #11, Kelly Olynyk & Shabazz Muhammad soon followed. Then, way down at #15, came Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course Dieng (#21) was also better than most of those guys, & Rudy Gobert (#27) is better than every single player taken before him except Giannis. Hell, James Ennis, the 50th pick, has been better than virtually all of them! I picked that year at random; whether you like it or not, it's pretty much the same every year.

Drop it.

[gambitx777]

Would personally trade Bryant for Allen in a heart beat. But I would not add much value on to it. The trade actually works well for both teams. Allen is what Jordan is they could use a good offensive big man off the bench since they already have their big minutes defender/rim protector in Jordan. This saves them from maybe over paying a guy they don't really wanna keep and Bryant is on a team friendly deal. The wizards who already have two other offensively inclined bigs in mo and AP use Bryant to get the mobile defender and rebounder they need and he's younger and on a rookie contract for another year. And his extension likely isn't going to be much more than Bryant's 8 mill a year probably him cap hold of 9 or maybe even mid level money. And he's a year younger. It helps out both teams honestly.

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