Predict the Wizards record in 2010-2011

[Benjammin]

Put me down for 30 wins as well. I think they'll have significant trouble on the boards. The bench is quite weak. The fact that Gil has another injury before the season has even started makes me nervous. There are just too many questions with this team. If they put it together well a .500 season is certainly possible, but being a Boulez/Wizards fan, I know not to expect things to all come together.

[AceDegenerate]

Seems it would have been better for the Wizards to get the #1 pick last year with Griffin than Wall. Apparently Wall is not as good as everyone thought considering almost everyone is picking Griffin as ROY and nobody thinks Wall will make any difference in this team's record. Interesting.

[LyricalRico]

Seems it would have been better for the Wizards to get the #1 pick last year with Griffin than Wall. Apparently Wall is not as good as everyone thought considering almost everyone is picking Griffin as ROY and nobody thinks Wall will make any difference in this team's record. Interesting.

Yeah, I also noticed that. It's like everybody has forgotten about Wall.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

It's because he plays on a team where the name is the freaking WIZARDS!

damn we need a name change!

[doclinkin]

Seems it would have been better for the Wizards to get the #1 pick last year with Griffin than Wall.

Yes from me. John Wall is a remarkable talent, but there's role duplication between him and Gil. Blake Griffin is also a supertalent, but in a position where we've been weak forever: power offense in the frontcourt.

Health is the caveat. I'd be even more concerned about the reckless abandon with which Blake plays than I am with John Wall driving into traffic and trying to finish above the rim.

But Gil plus Blake has greater synergy than Gil plus John Wall. Gil at his best is a threat to score with the ball in his hands, driving or shooting. He's less of a danger running off the ball.

[AceDegenerate]

Regardless of Gil though, the consensus at least from the media has been that Griffin is somehow the better player. Even though last year, he wasn't as hyped, I don't get it.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

When I was anti-Wall before the draft I thought it made no sense to draft a PG with Gil on the roster. I wanted Cousins with a pick instead of Wall. That pick could have been used for Babbitt, or Wes Johnson, or possibly Xavier Henry. I think Cousins has a good shot at having more ROY votes than Wall, same as I thought before the draft. The good news is Wall is much better than I thought he would be.

Regarding Blake Griffin, the guy's just a sublime talent. However, he's had an extra year to get his body right and to acclimate to the league. He's a flat out beast, and to me the prohibitive favorite for ROY. He's better than Cousins because Blake is quick, strong, and elevates extremely high. Cousins is more like a bigger, stronger, much more beastly Blatche. Demarcus has some nifty moves for a guy his size.

To me, the Wizards need to hope Wall's a leader and a character guy and that they get great play from Howard and Blatche. I am not counting on Gil.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm going to keep my votes at 37 because as much as I want to say they'll stink w/o Gil, I have a feeling Nick Young at SG will work much better with Wall than folks anticipate. The Wizards will become a grinder team without Gil. Flip likes that kind of team anyway.

Wall and Hinrich can be better tha Hinrich and Gordon right away. Blatche can score. Javale is going to have a beast of a game early on is my prediction. I'm talking a 25/15 type game (like he's done once in the past). McGee's going to blow up.

The team will have holes and lack frontcourt strength, rebounding, and quality play at SF til Howard comes back; but I think they'll still win over 35 games. With or without Gil.

Arenas playing well and healthy is the only way the team really gets over 40 wins IMO.

[dobrojim]

I'm going to go WAY out on a limb and say we're as good
as EJ's best team,

45 wins

of course I'll probably end up being disappointed

such is the fate of a lifetime bullets/wizards fan

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

jim, the team's got a (supposedly) better coach. They've got younger, superior athletes, superior quickness, superior defense, and superior willingness to play within a team concept. Coachable team that will share the ball ...

If Flip coaches em up and if they find a way to rebound, they'll score in transition with the best of them. Your prediction could be looking sweet.

I'm just disappointed by the Gil vibe. I started off saying 50 wins....

I like your 45 win prediction, jim.

[hands11]

When I was anti-Wall before the draft I thought it made no sense to draft a PG with Gil on the roster. I wanted Cousins with a pick instead of Wall. That pick could have been used for Babbitt or maybe a Wes Johnson, or possibly and Xavier Henry. I think Cousins has a good shot at having more ROY votes than Wall, same as I thought before the draft. The good news is Wall is much better than I thought he would be.

Regarding Blake Griffin, the guy's just a sublime talent. However, he's had an extra year to get his body right and to acclimate to the league. He's a flat out beast, and to me the prohibitive favorite for ROY. He's better than Cousins because Blake is quick, strong, and elevates extremely high. Cousins is more like a bigger, stronger, much more beastly Blatche. Demarcus has some nifty moves for a guy his size.

To me, the Wizards need to hope Wall's a leader and a character guy and that they get great play from Howard and Blatche. I am not counting on Gil.

Character, maturity and leadership is what separates talent from stars. From what I have seen from Wall, he has all of that. If not for that a star SF was what I though we should have gotten and Wesley was the player I slotted. Trade down and get more assets and who know what we could have gotten.

But I am more that happy with Wall so not looking back. Howard, AT and Booker can hold down the fort. But we will need to find that SF at some point some how and that won't be easy. It will cost us.

[bulletproof_32]

Put me down for 37-45.

[willbcocks]

I also think that Wall is being underestimated in some of these statistical analyses. Some don't even appear to distinguish between rookies based on draft position. And of course none account for the fact that Wall is going to have much more impact than other rookies because a) he's a beast, and b) he will literally have the ball in his hands most of our offensive player minutes, since Wall loves the ball and Flip loves Wall.

Also, Wall has the type of game that stat guys don't evaluate well because of his low efficiency. Efficiency is good to see how people convert opportunities, but the thing with Wall is through his speed and leadership, he will be creating lots of opportunities the team otherwise wouldn't have. He's the type of player who needs to be evaluating with on/off stats. CCJ is one of our stat guys but he's changed his tone on Wall for these very reasons.

In all, I think Wall adds 10-15 wins for this team. Sadly, I don't think this team is built for winning this year at all, so without Wall I would have predicted 15 wins. Give Wall 13 and you have my prediction of 28.

[AlohaWiz]

Historically speaking, the Wizards play at a .750 clip with Josh Howard in the lineup. Assuming he doesn't play until December (after 16 games are in the books), the team should win about 49 or 50 games. Any wins in the first 16 would be gravy.

But, seriously, given the youth and lack of depth on this squad, this is looking like a 30-something win year. Put me down for 34 wins. (But really hoping they can manage closer to 40 wins, squeak into the playoffs and knock out LeBron somehow).

[WizStorm]

Update...

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli, nuposse04
45 wins: Krizko Zero, dobrojim
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery
42 wins: JonathanJoseph, GilArenas88, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304, 1974onWizFan, Tyrone Messby
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca, wizfan1984, miller31time
38 wins: DallasShalDune, CrankyTodd
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart, JAR69, bulletproof_32
36 wins: MJG, nate33, Dat2U, bgroban, jimij, wermolwermol777, Donkey McDonkerton
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl, Severn Hoos, lupin
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, AlohaWiz
33 wins: Hooplotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator, LyricalRico, Benjammin
29 wins: noDinhibachi
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins:
26 wins: fugop
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

And from the "experts"...
32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets

30.0 wins: Basketball Prospectus, Bradford Doolittle uses a different statistical prognostication method, which he used to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. In his system, the Wizards finish 28th on average with 30.0 wins. Doolittle predicts the Wizards as having a 1.0% chance of finishing .500, a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of making the Finals or winning the title. In his 10,000 simulations, the Wizards' high in wins was 45, their low was 8.

23.1 wins: Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has updated season predictions based on his statistical projection system, which he calls SCHOENE. He plugs in the numbers and simulates the season 1,000 times. The average from those simulations says the Wizards will win 23.1 games and finish with the league's worst record. In those simulations, the Wizards and Clippers were the only teams to not make the playoffs even once.

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

Jeff Sagarin has the Wizards at 27th in the league

[Rafael122]

Posted this on Facebook but 39 wins and the 8th seed in the playoffs. It going to take another draft and another offseason to bring in a couple of more players. But because of Wall, our odds of making the playoffs increased.

[Nivek]

I agree with doc. If I had a choice between Griffin and Wall, I'd take Griffin too.

[Ruzious]

I take Wall over Griffin - even with Wall's very suspect jump shot - because of defense. I love Griffin's offensive game and rebounding, but just like Kevin Love (who's game I "love" maybe even more), I see defensive limitations. Watching the Celtics/Heat inauguration game last night, it was a great example of what defense means. KG is still the top defensive PF in the game by a mile - completely controlling Bosh - the great offensive PF. Even while having a so-so offensive game, KG was easily the more impactful PF. But even more impactful was Boston's PG - who made 2 FGs all game - and was still arguably the best player on the floor last night. He controlled the offense beautifully and played great defense. That's what Wall can do - even if he's not going to be a big scorer as a rook. All things being equal, he'll be more of a winning player than Griffin.

I can't blame the media for being negative about the Wizlets. They have a lot of questions to answer.

[Dat2U]

Seems it would have been better for the Wizards to get the #1 pick last year with Griffin than Wall.

Yes from me. John Wall is a remarkable talent, but there's role duplication between him and Gil. Blake Griffin is also a supertalent, but in a position where we've been weak forever: power offense in the frontcourt.

Health is the caveat. I'd be even more concerned about the reckless abandon with which Blake plays than I am with John Wall driving into traffic and trying to finish above the rim.

But Gil plus Blake has greater synergy than Gil plus John Wall. Gil at his best is a threat to score with the ball in his hands, driving or shooting. He's less of a danger running off the ball.

Blake is a supertalent but your right to be concerned about the way he plays. He's so reckless that I don't believe his style of play is conducive to remaining healthy long term. And he's got a history of getting hurt to go along with that.

Wall's body control is so good, it seems like he's able to avoid taking some of those brutal & punishing trips to the floor unlike a guy like Antonio Daniels. I don't see the injury risk there that I do with Blake. That's why I'd choose Wall over Griffin.

I hate to say this, but synergy with Gil is pretty much irrelevant at this point. Gil frankly just needs to show the ability to stay on the court. I don't know how we can continue to rely on a guy that just can't stay healthy. I'm growing weary of it all and I've been one of his biggest supporters.

[AceDegenerate]

See, I don't see how a player misses his ENTIRE Rookie Season and somehow is more hyped coming in the next year?

So, how about Greg Oden over John Wall then too? What happens if Blake misses significant time this year as well? Highly likely considering he missed ALL of last season. I don't get how a player as fragile as Griffin can be hyped over John Wall, when Wall was one of the most hyped players since LeBron. It's pretty apparent that since the Wizards ended up with #1, he has pretty much faded to the background.