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Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#161 » by stevemcqueen1 » Sun May 12, 2013 12:50 am

Dark Faze wrote:He's a terrible defender with no true position. Those stats are irrelevant. Just look at Mike Beasley and Derrick Williams if you want to think that stats transition to the NBA 1 for 1.


Bennett is certainly not a terrible defender. Dat has been saying this lately and it's not an accurate picture of his ability. I actually watched several UNLV games and I usually came away thinking his defense was good, certainly not terrible. He's probably not going to make any All NBA defense teams, but he can certainly be a solid NBA. And he was not a bad defender at UNLV.

Bennett struggled on occasion playing low post defense at the 5.

That is an entirely different thing from being a bad defender. He's actually a solid multi-positional defender that helped anchor one of the best defenses in D1 this year. UNLV was actually an elite D when he, Khem Birch, and Mike Moser were all healthy. Bennett is a good on ball perimeter defender that can stay in front of much smaller slashing perimeter players and he's also a powerful player that was comfortable muscling for position with college bigs playing Center. The only big I saw give him problems physically was Colton Iverson, a 23 year old 7 foot goon with 20 pounds on Bennett. Bennett has the natural strength to be a low post defender in the NBA and he's going to get bigger and stronger as he ages. Not bad for a guy who will be a PF/SF hybrid in the NBA.

Bennett also has a knack for blocking shots on the perimeter and coming up with big plays. You can't call him a terrible defender if you've seen him pick entry passes, hound a ball handler on the perimeter, or block 3 pointers and trigger fast breaks.

And it goes without saying that Bennett can eat the glass on defense. He was averaging something like 11 RPG before he got hurt.

The only defensive weaknesses that regularly jumped out at me were his tendency to get caught watching the ball and his rotations from the weak side. He's a bit of a gambler from the weak side and he can be slow to help out when he doesn't gamble. He's a perimeter oriented player who didn't have a great comfort level playing team D in the traditional big man role. But Bennett was also playing out of position at the 5 because of Mike Moser's injury, he will not be playing this kind of defensive role in the NBA. Bennett himself was also injured, and he was freshman learning the position on the fly. It was natural for him to struggle. It was a knowledge and effort issue IMO, not an issue of ability. The right system and the right teammates and the right coach could have him playing good defense for a great defensive team. You saw him doing it when he was playing his natural position at forward for a great UNLV D.

If guys who used to be total trash on defense like ZBo and Boozer can be a big part a top two defenses, then Bennett will be fine. Plus Bennett can cover the ball on the perimeter, giving you a little versatility in who you can stick him on that ZBo and Boozer certainly doesn't have.

Bennett has an NBA position too. If Carmelo can play PF full time for a solid defensive team, Bennett can play PF. He's a true face up PF that can play SF in big lineups if he goes to a team like Memphis that has two good bigs already. He's like a more talented Paul Millsap. Handles of a guard, shooting range past three, and a total bear in the lane that can tear the backboard down when he goes up with two hands. And focusing only on his D ignores the fact he's one of the best offensive players in the class and has tremendous offensive potential in the NBA. He's one of the top inside-outside scorers in the class that also has an NBA body and excellent athleticism. He's one of the few players who would be a lotto pick in most draft classes.

If I had any faith in this organization's ability to develop talented but immature young bigs, I would pick him third overall after McLemore and Noel go.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#162 » by mhd » Sun May 12, 2013 2:15 am

Otto Porter signs with David Falk. I wonder if the Wizards wouldn't draft Porter b/c of that.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#163 » by hands11 » Sun May 12, 2013 6:56 am

mhd wrote:Otto Porter signs with David Falk. I wonder if the Wizards wouldn't draft Porter b/c of that.


Wonderful

Seems he has a GT connection. He also reps Monroe n Hibbert.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#164 » by Ruzious » Sun May 12, 2013 7:36 am

The Consiglieri wrote:
DCZards wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
But if you isolate out just the scoring tools he [Beal] demonstrated without caring about the numbers, you'd have seen a picture perfect jump shot with awesome range, tremendous shot selection and IQ, a nice little floater game, smooth dribbles and athletic straight line drives with physical finishing ability--i.e. all of the tools to be a big time scorer in the NBA. Remember all of the incredulity about all of the Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen comparisons Beal drew? He was getting them from all over. There were people who saw the similarities in the tools and people who couldn't see it because what they were thinking about were the numbers.


Yup, an over emphasis on numbers at the expense of an eye test can be a mistake. Last year at this time when some on this board were doing back flips over Jae Crowder "numbers," I consistently argued that after watching Crowder numerous times at Marquette he didn't pass the eye test...at least as far as being a lottery pick was concerned. Thus far, I think that's turning out to be true.

People need to get over Bazz's frosh numbers and recognize that, given his impressive offensive versatility, he's likely to be a very good NBA player.

BTW, I also argued that Beal was a better shooter than his frosh numbers showed and that the Zards should draft him over any player not named Anthony Davis.


+2

I was extremely bothered last year w/the rap Beal and Drummond got by a lot of posters here in Feb/March etc. Beal took a ton of stick for his #'s especially circa November-January (they took a bit of an uptick in Feb-March), and Drummond just took a ton of stick in general.

I've always thought that a single year is always small sample size, both because of how small a career it is (20-35 games or so, minutes creeping up, or starting high), and because of the drastic differences between high school and college environments for kids, particularly kids from urban environments (going from say, playing basketball for Castlemont High School in Oakland, or Skyline, and then going onto St. Mary's, or Santa Clara is absolute night and day, and massively disruptive).

That's why I tend to view great numbers as a freshman as great, and mediocre numbers as a freshman as indicative of nothing in particular, especially if the situation is anything but ideal (UConn last year, UCLA this year, North Teas this year etc). I want to give the player a chance to get acclimatized and figure it out. So when a player like McAdoo has issues, I'm of two minds abut it, on the one hand, he definitely hasn't lived up to expectations, on the other, he's also playing out of position, but with two years in, I'm not gonna give him the same rope as I'd give Drummond, Beal, or Muhammad for struggles.

The key for me is to look into the experiences. I just view metrics as reliable in the pro's as really far more accurate than in college, I don't think they help tell the story nearly so well because in college the differences in competition level are so vast, leaving your home and living on your own so difference, and the things out of a players control are enormous (coaching, roster, environment, the drastic change from high school to college etc).

So when Beal struggled w/his shot for months last year, I didn't think it meant squat, and when Drummond was so uneven as a freshman in a horrible situation at UConn, and Muhammad suffered almost identically, the only thing that seemed worth noting for the latter two was the commonalities, imploding coaching environments, lack of leadership and stability with both teams, injuries, and in both cases the players weren't going to be playing college ball right before their respective seasons started (Drummond because he wasn't going to college until he changed his mind, Muhammad because of the NCAA bogus nonsense).

Maybe it's not helpful, but I just view it as ridiculous to perceive statistics as definitive with players undergoing such dramatic changes in their lives. I definitely can see why stats are relevant, and of course they are, but I also think its not worthwhile to toss a player out of the equation automatically if the stats from a single short college season, are what you have to work with. A year ago, most scouts thought Tony Mitchell was a top 4-8 prospect in college basketball, now he sucks? Was there any major difference in '11-'12 to '12-'13. Well, yes, his head coach, which had turned North Texas into an NCAA Tourney squad bailed, and the team imploded under inferior coaching. Muhammad didn't even think he was going to play this year when the season started because of an NCAA ban, and his coach was an inch away from being canned, and the star player from the '11-'12 season/class was being hounded out of the program throughout that season. Is that ideal? No.

At the end of the day, I just view the stat ripping on freshman as counterproductive, on NBA players, by all mean, on college freshman, I just don't think it's helpful, especially when people simply throw away a player because of some metric stat lines, completely ignoring what was going on in that players life, and in the program while his play was underwhelming.

Is Beal, afterall, the guy who could not find his shot in the first half of his debut in college, and his debut with the wizards, or is he the guy who was tearing it up with Wall by mid-January, and improving his freshman year by several percentage points in feb/march? If you judged him based on the early returns, he couldn't shoot at all. Time proved he could.

I think we can pick and choose who we like better, but not be so definitive about things. I'm too harsh on Zeller because I didn't see enough improvements, and Porter because he reminds me of a lot of players that lacked elite skills, but had a collection of good ones (these guys tend to be league average or worse), I'm probably too easy on Bennett, and Muhammad because I think the athleticism, and strength, and competitiveness at the NBA level wouldn't scare them at all, plus they have NBA skills, that other guys Im less impressed with, don't seem to have at that respective level.

We'll see, I'd just like us to be more reasonable. It's gonna be crazy if after all of this 100 page thread content, EG just trades the pick for some mediocre player.

Muhammad's situation really wasn't anything like Drummond's. Drummond basically didn't get the ball at UConn unless he got rebounds or loose balls. Bazz was a vital part of UCLA's offense. He played with another freshman wing player who performed more effectively than he did - at both ends of the court. We can talk bad about Drew - their PG - and I did myself - but he improved quite a bit since his UNC days and was a solid college PG for UCLA. Basically, it was complete and utter OMB (oscar meyer bolognasia) that UCLA's situation held back the 20 year old frosh.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#165 » by fishercob » Sun May 12, 2013 11:00 am

Watching Hibbert and Gasol dominate excellent offensive teams makes me think: if you believe Len can eventually have that type of defensive impact, you have to take him.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#166 » by FAH1223 » Sun May 12, 2013 12:31 pm

Yeah. Having a 7 foot center with defensive instincts would be great.

If Len can check out health wise, I'd take him and hope for the best.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#167 » by Wizardspride » Sun May 12, 2013 12:53 pm

hands11 wrote:
mhd wrote:Otto Porter signs with David Falk. I wonder if the Wizards wouldn't draft Porter b/c of that.


Wonderful

Seems he has a GT connection. He also reps Monroe n Hibbert.

Falk is one of John Thompson Jr's best friends as well as being his agent.

That's the connection.

Falk has basically represented every G'Town player. Ewing, Wingate, Floyd, Mutumbo, Mourning, Harrington etc.

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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#168 » by mhd » Sun May 12, 2013 12:54 pm

This Len injury may be a blessing in disguise, although patient GMs (suprisingly like Bryan Colangelo who drafted Jonas V knowing he'd come in 1 year) would probably take him still.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#169 » by hands11 » Sun May 12, 2013 2:27 pm

fishercob wrote:Watching Hibbert and Gasol dominate excellent offensive teams makes me think: if you believe Len can eventually have that type of defensive impact, you have to take him.


And it all comes full circle again.

Its hard to get away from that glaring larger term "Need" part of the formula.

Noel is interesting, but he can't move to PF like Davis did while he adds weight and he doesn't have the offense Davis has. Both are injured. So while there are other players that are interesting additions like VO, Burke, Otto, CJM, Bennett, etc, strategically for building, center is really what they need to add most for longer term.

Next years draft has a lot more SF and PFs and right now we have plenty of them, even if we still have lots of questions about what we have.

As much as I like CJM, I wonder if/how they would work out bringing in another young player like that with Beal here as young as he is. Same thing with Burke and Wall. Seem like bring in solid vets might be a better fit.

Its two different formulas to work out. I know the players I like that I know will produce. The bigger question is which mix in best and how do you grow the team so all the parts compliment each other.

But adding a player like Len who is injured could be a path to a mid level tank next year. Maybe they are still in the lottery. But I doubt it if they are healthy. The think what is clogging things up is knowing what to do with Kevin, Singleton, Booker and Ves. They need to clean that up in order to bring in more new young players.

Its a complicated year regarding what to do.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#170 » by Deeptu McPullup » Sun May 12, 2013 2:53 pm

hands11 wrote:But adding a player like Len who is injured could be a path to a mid level tank next year. Maybe they are still in the lottery. But I doubt it if they are healthy. The think that is clogging things up is knowing what to do with Kevin, Singleton, Booker and Ves. They need to clean that up in order to bring in more new young players.

Its a complicated year regarding what to do.


I'd suspect that if we draft Len, it's an "and then we...." sort of affair. I can't see Ernie drafting Len, resigning Webster, filling out the rest of the roster with minimum level guys and calling it an offseason. Ernie wouldn't be comfortable with that given his contract situation after what happened this year.

The most likely thing would be moving some of Ernie's Kids® with minor assets in exchange for a veteran or two. A fair chance we get a longer term contract and forgo 2014 free agency in my opinion too (I understand many don't like that idea and, while I think that hurts Ernie deeply, he'll do it again anyway).

targets might be Louis Scola, Lou Williams....tempest-tost guys named Lew in general.

Actually, we're probably a threat to make that sort of trade no matter what we do, but doubly so if we take Len.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#171 » by pancakes3 » Sun May 12, 2013 3:14 pm

hands11 wrote:Next years draft has a lot more SF and PFs and right now we have plenty of them, even if we still have lots of questions about what we have.


Nope. Can't think like that. Ariza/Webster are serviceable at SF but hardly "set pieces". The PF situation is laughable. We have an aging and hobbled Nene masquerading as a PF and 3 stooges that basically lied on their resume about being able to handle PF on a professional level. Our roster is dreadfully thin at all 5 spots. No bench to speak of, zero frontcourt depth, and the illusion of youth artificially generated via players like Singleton, Vesely, and Seraphin is a sham of the highest order.

In the great Forward draft of 2014 we HAVE to draft BPA.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#172 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sun May 12, 2013 3:50 pm

Deeptu McPullup wrote:
hands11 wrote:But adding a player like Len who is injured could be a path to a mid level tank next year. Maybe they are still in the lottery. But I doubt it if they are healthy. The think that is clogging things up is knowing what to do with Kevin, Singleton, Booker and Ves. They need to clean that up in order to bring in more new young players.

Its a complicated year regarding what to do.


I'd suspect that if we draft Len, it's an "and then we...." sort of affair. I can't see Ernie drafting Len, resigning Webster, filling out the rest of the roster with minimum level guys and calling it an offseason. Ernie wouldn't be comfortable with that given his contract situation after what happened this year.

The most likely thing would be moving some of Ernie's Kids® with minor assets in exchange for a veteran or two. A fair chance we get a longer term contract and forgo 2014 free agency in my opinion too (I understand many don't like that idea and, while I think that hurts Ernie deeply, he'll do it again anyway).

targets might be Louis Scola, Lou Williams....tempest-tost guys named Lew in general.

Actually, we're probably a threat to make that sort of trade no matter what we do, but doubly so if we take Len.


Len for Cousiins would at least be trading very young for still young.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#173 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sun May 12, 2013 4:05 pm

What this team needs is a new GM with a fresh set of eyes. What concerns me is Ernie still believing Vesely is a good talent that just needs more playing time.

Also believing this team is a good playoff team as is, only held back this year by injuries and some tough breaks.

I'm convinced Ernie has his sights set on Len, with Zeller as his plan B.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#174 » by theboomking » Sun May 12, 2013 4:41 pm

fishercob wrote:Watching Hibbert and Gasol dominate excellent offensive teams makes me think: if you believe Len can eventually have that type of defensive impact, you have to take him.


This makes sense. I like Len a lot as an upside pick. If we are going to be better than a team that can expect a yearly 1st round exit in the playoffs, we need to add another real impact player. Len at least has a chance to be that guy. The fact that he could be that guy as a two way impact center adds even more value. Sure, he could bust, but we will likely be picking at 8 or 9, where any player is going to have warts.

I also don't understand why people are comparing Bennett, Derrick Williams, and Thomas Robinson. Bennett has a far more advanced handle than either of those two, and is also a better shooter. I wouldn't call Bennett undersized, as he is fairly massive, but he doesn't have ideal length for a PF. When I watch him though, I see a guy that could potentially be a real impact pIayer as a stretch 4 on offense.

As far as the argument about evaluating freshman players based on stats, maybe shooting stats aren't best evaluated on such a small sample size. However, looking at stats that evaluate athleticism and motor, such as blocks, steals and rebounds, seems very appropriate. This is what separates someone like Beal from someone like Muhammad. Beal had a long history of AAU, HS and National team play to suggest that his shooting numbers in college didn't represent his talent as a shooter. Beal's blocks and steals and rebounds spoke to the fact that he had the requisite athleticism and would contribute to the game in multiple ways. Muhammad has a much better 3P% than FT% which often implies that the 3P% is going to come back down to earth at some point, and is shooting much better from distance than ever in the past. He also contributes in almost no other way. His rebounds, blocks, steals and assists are terrible.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#175 » by The Consiglieri » Sun May 12, 2013 5:56 pm

Ruzious wrote:
The Consiglieri wrote:
DCZards wrote:
Yup, an over emphasis on numbers at the expense of an eye test can be a mistake. Last year at this time when some on this board were doing back flips over Jae Crowder "numbers," I consistently argued that after watching Crowder numerous times at Marquette he didn't pass the eye test...at least as far as being a lottery pick was concerned. Thus far, I think that's turning out to be true.

People need to get over Bazz's frosh numbers and recognize that, given his impressive offensive versatility, he's likely to be a very good NBA player.

BTW, I also argued that Beal was a better shooter than his frosh numbers showed and that the Zards should draft him over any player not named Anthony Davis.


+2

I was extremely bothered last year w/the rap Beal and Drummond got by a lot of posters here in Feb/March etc. Beal took a ton of stick for his #'s especially circa November-January (they took a bit of an uptick in Feb-March), and Drummond just took a ton of stick in general.

I've always thought that a single year is always small sample size, both because of how small a career it is (20-35 games or so, minutes creeping up, or starting high), and because of the drastic differences between high school and college environments for kids, particularly kids from urban environments (going from say, playing basketball for Castlemont High School in Oakland, or Skyline, and then going onto St. Mary's, or Santa Clara is absolute night and day, and massively disruptive).

That's why I tend to view great numbers as a freshman as great, and mediocre numbers as a freshman as indicative of nothing in particular, especially if the situation is anything but ideal (UConn last year, UCLA this year, North Teas this year etc). I want to give the player a chance to get acclimatized and figure it out. So when a player like McAdoo has issues, I'm of two minds abut it, on the one hand, he definitely hasn't lived up to expectations, on the other, he's also playing out of position, but with two years in, I'm not gonna give him the same rope as I'd give Drummond, Beal, or Muhammad for struggles.

The key for me is to look into the experiences. I just view metrics as reliable in the pro's as really far more accurate than in college, I don't think they help tell the story nearly so well because in college the differences in competition level are so vast, leaving your home and living on your own so difference, and the things out of a players control are enormous (coaching, roster, environment, the drastic change from high school to college etc).

So when Beal struggled w/his shot for months last year, I didn't think it meant squat, and when Drummond was so uneven as a freshman in a horrible situation at UConn, and Muhammad suffered almost identically, the only thing that seemed worth noting for the latter two was the commonalities, imploding coaching environments, lack of leadership and stability with both teams, injuries, and in both cases the players weren't going to be playing college ball right before their respective seasons started (Drummond because he wasn't going to college until he changed his mind, Muhammad because of the NCAA bogus nonsense).

Maybe it's not helpful, but I just view it as ridiculous to perceive statistics as definitive with players undergoing such dramatic changes in their lives. I definitely can see why stats are relevant, and of course they are, but I also think its not worthwhile to toss a player out of the equation automatically if the stats from a single short college season, are what you have to work with. A year ago, most scouts thought Tony Mitchell was a top 4-8 prospect in college basketball, now he sucks? Was there any major difference in '11-'12 to '12-'13. Well, yes, his head coach, which had turned North Texas into an NCAA Tourney squad bailed, and the team imploded under inferior coaching. Muhammad didn't even think he was going to play this year when the season started because of an NCAA ban, and his coach was an inch away from being canned, and the star player from the '11-'12 season/class was being hounded out of the program throughout that season. Is that ideal? No.

At the end of the day, I just view the stat ripping on freshman as counterproductive, on NBA players, by all mean, on college freshman, I just don't think it's helpful, especially when people simply throw away a player because of some metric stat lines, completely ignoring what was going on in that players life, and in the program while his play was underwhelming.

Is Beal, afterall, the guy who could not find his shot in the first half of his debut in college, and his debut with the wizards, or is he the guy who was tearing it up with Wall by mid-January, and improving his freshman year by several percentage points in feb/march? If you judged him based on the early returns, he couldn't shoot at all. Time proved he could.

I think we can pick and choose who we like better, but not be so definitive about things. I'm too harsh on Zeller because I didn't see enough improvements, and Porter because he reminds me of a lot of players that lacked elite skills, but had a collection of good ones (these guys tend to be league average or worse), I'm probably too easy on Bennett, and Muhammad because I think the athleticism, and strength, and competitiveness at the NBA level wouldn't scare them at all, plus they have NBA skills, that other guys Im less impressed with, don't seem to have at that respective level.

We'll see, I'd just like us to be more reasonable. It's gonna be crazy if after all of this 100 page thread content, EG just trades the pick for some mediocre player.

Muhammad's situation really wasn't anything like Drummond's. Drummond basically didn't get the ball at UConn unless he got rebounds or loose balls. Bazz was a vital part of UCLA's offense. He played with another freshman wing player who performed more effectively than he did - at both ends of the court. We can talk bad about Drew - their PG - and I did myself - but he improved quite a bit since his UNC days and was a solid college PG for UCLA. Basically, it was complete and utter OMB (oscar meyer bolognasia) that UCLA's situation held back the 20 year old frosh.


That's not the analogy I'm making. The analogy I'm making is that in both cases, both players didn't follow the 99.9% path of college hoops recruits, Drummond got w/UConn several months later than recruits later than normal, Muhammad set up with UCLA at the end of the recruiting process, but then was suspended for the season, and understood he wouldn't be playing in '12-'13 until the NCAA reversed its self during the season. In both situations the run up to the season was not normal.

Secondly, both players played for teams that had no senior leadership to speak of, no leaders to speak of, and massive instability at the coaching level, and poor to horrible chemistry.

If you want to talk specifics on how the offense worked, that's fine, Muhammad had 10x the involvement as Drummond, or even Len for that matter, or hell, even Beal (who had to deal w/shot jackers around him as well), definitely had more say and more opportunity. I would not disagree. My entire post wasn't addressing that issue though, it was attacking the issue of arriving in a new environment that may not be a comfortable one AND dealing with an environment that is horrible for young players to develop in. Calhoun was being hounded into retirement by an array of sanctions possibly coming down on the program, and the leadership at UConn had left, Walker had left, and nobody there was able to really help Drummond learn the ropes in a safe environment like with the Pistons, with Muhammad, Howland was being hounded out the program, all UCLA affiliated peeps despised his system and felt he wasn't using Muhammad or the talent available properly at all, and UCLA had been hit with a massive bullying, instability rap w/one of their stars the previous year that was so bad, perhaps their best young player was set to be booted. No leadership there either.

I don't disagree w/what you had to say, but your points in the end, didn't really address anything that I was actually discussing, which was focused on how elite recruits (#1/#1a ranked Drummond in '11, #1/#1a ranked Muhammad in '12), can have iffy seasons when the environment isn't remotely well suited to their needs. Compare what Drummond went through in '11-'12, w/what Davis and MKG went through that season? It's night and day. These are 18 year old kids, and ended up in a hideous environment that's a powderkeg of negativity like both did in the previous two years probably had a little something to do with their iffy seasons, and you can triple down on that with Muhammad's lack of health/fitness to start the year AND the fact that up until a few games into the season, he thought hit college career was already over before it started.

To me it's kind of insane that these issues are totally ignored by posters, and his shooting percentage inside the paint in 25+ games in totality has been viewed as trumping it to the extent that his critics here don't even acknowledge his situation. The same thing happened last year with Drummond, and it's absurd to me. There are plenty of concerns with Muhammad which is why he'll presently go #6-#9 pending workouts and the combine, and that's at a 4-7 slot discount on what scouts viewed him as 9 months ago. That discount makes him a value at our slot, not an overpay. I can see why we would want to keep Martell, and go after a Len, or a trade down, or a trade up, what I can't see is why people seem to refuse to acknowledge that these players are more human, than #'s, particularly when they're freshman with limited sample size in horrible situations as I've discussed.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#176 » by The Consiglieri » Sun May 12, 2013 6:11 pm

man, my home laptop keyboard has become a nightmare for some reason, dropping letters repeatedly. Count me in as one who sees the preference now in the F.O. as a trade for a vet, or a Len selection, or a trade up. I could see the Len angle simply because I'm sure E.G. and Leonsis view the Beal/Wall record as indicative of where the team could be, and perhaps even better if Nene hadn't spent the whole season dealing with serious injuries from the Olympics. IF those stats are to believe then the floor of the team w/no additions or subtractions is probably 45 wins in '13-'14, good for #4-#6 playoff slot. So why not draft a Len, nurture him along while Nene takes the summer off, and everybody's healthy and good to go by November? The team would make the playoffs barring another injury riddled year, and if there was any slippage we'd be rewarded w/a nice pick in the best draft in a decade. I'd rather actually add a long term upside addition like Len, or somebody else w/that kind of eval, then a plug and play mediocre player.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#177 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sun May 12, 2013 6:13 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Deeptu McPullup wrote:
hands11 wrote:But adding a player like Len who is injured could be a path to a mid level tank next year. Maybe they are still in the lottery. But I doubt it if they are healthy. The think that is clogging things up is knowing what to do with Kevin, Singleton, Booker and Ves. They need to clean that up in order to bring in more new young players.

Its a complicated year regarding what to do.


I'd suspect that if we draft Len, it's an "and then we...." sort of affair. I can't see Ernie drafting Len, resigning Webster, filling out the rest of the roster with minimum level guys and calling it an offseason. Ernie wouldn't be comfortable with that given his contract situation after what happened this year.

The most likely thing would be moving some of Ernie's Kids® with minor assets in exchange for a veteran or two. A fair chance we get a longer term contract and forgo 2014 free agency in my opinion too (I understand many don't like that idea and, while I think that hurts Ernie deeply, he'll do it again anyway).

targets might be Louis Scola, Lou Williams....tempest-tost guys named Lew in general.

Actually, we're probably a threat to make that sort of trade no matter what we do, but doubly so if we take Len.


Len for Cousiins would at least be trading very young for still young.



I would definitely consider #8 and Vesely for Cousins.

Follow that with some kind of Seraphin/Singleton trade for a veteran piece. Swap our 2 2nd rounders to move up for someone like Green or Muscala to add a rookie.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#178 » by The Consiglieri » Sun May 12, 2013 8:05 pm

Its certainly worth it to talk shop w/them, especially w/a sale coming, a new ownership group might consider the 6th and 8th pick overall and a piece very attractive. I tend to think we undersell how much sac may value him. Everyone knows hes a knucklehead w/issues, particularly on the defensive end, and w/effort, but he is valued because the potential ceiling is so high. I would def try to initiate discussions though, as he's fundamentally superior to all the prospects in the draft not named Noel.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#179 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sun May 12, 2013 9:14 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:Its certainly worth it to talk shop w/them, especially w/a sale coming, a new ownership group might consider the 6th and 8th pick overall and a piece very attractive. I tend to think we undersell how much sac may value him. Everyone knows hes a knucklehead w/issues, particularly on the defensive end, and w/effort, but he is valued because the potential ceiling is so high. I would def try to initiate discussions though, as he's fundamentally superior to all the prospects in the draft not named Noel.




Yeah, on further thought, it would probably take something more like the #8 with Seraphin and Vesely.

I think that's something that could work for both teams.
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Re: Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part IV 

Post#180 » by hands11 » Sun May 12, 2013 9:20 pm

Deeptu McPullup wrote:
hands11 wrote:But adding a player like Len who is injured could be a path to a mid level tank next year. Maybe they are still in the lottery. But I doubt it if they are healthy. The think that is clogging things up is knowing what to do with Kevin, Singleton, Booker and Ves. They need to clean that up in order to bring in more new young players.

Its a complicated year regarding what to do.


I'd suspect that if we draft Len, it's an "and then we...." sort of affair. I can't see Ernie drafting Len, resigning Webster, filling out the rest of the roster with minimum level guys and calling it an offseason. Ernie wouldn't be comfortable with that given his contract situation after what happened this year.

The most likely thing would be moving some of Ernie's Kids® with minor assets in exchange for a veteran or two. A fair chance we get a longer term contract and forgo 2014 free agency in my opinion too (I understand many don't like that idea and, while I think that hurts Ernie deeply, he'll do it again anyway).

targets might be Louis Scola, Lou Williams....tempest-tost guys named Lew in general.

Actually, we're probably a threat to make that sort of trade no matter what we do, but doubly so if we take Len.


As I mentioned before. With Ernie being in his last year of a two year extension and having been here as long as he has, I don't think it up to him to do whatever he wants. Ted will set the parameters and I doubt they are the same short term ones as what Abe had last time when they cashed in the 5th for Foye and Miller.

I'm not saying they won't add vets. I think they will try. But it will be with a longer term horizon then Abe's, let try to win it all next year. They are still building with a 2-3 year horizon. And until we see what they do with Trevor A, Webster, Okafor, Kevin S, Ves, Booker and Singleton, we just don't know what that will look like. They could do some cleaning up now or they may weight another year.

Only player I am pretty sure won't be back is C Martin.

Often I feel like they should do what they need to do to clear out Kevin S, Singleton and Ves and reload those positions now even if the value of doing so is not ideal. That group just seems stale. On the other hand, I could see them giving all of them one more year since this was the first year they were presented with this higher standard for playing time. They may give them all a summer to address their skills issues before seeing who can stay and who they can trade for more value then they have right now. And that could make sense if the right master deal comes along. They would have assets and expiring contracts to deal.

It's a messy/fluid situation. They just have to decide which direction to go in and do it. We just don't know what it is yet. And its one of those situation that whichever they choose, there will be room to complain about it. And I expect we will read plenty of it here.

The only thing that gives me some confidence it will work out is the fact that they have Wall and Beal. There they have two very solid pieces and both are still very young. So they have 2 years to build a team around them that will be the foundation for the six plus year run after that. That is the long term goal and I expect Ted to set that as the parameter. As such, I don't see them adding raw draft picks that will take years to develop like a Kevin S, Singleton or Ves were. Whoever they add will need to be able to contribute and fit in right away. I think that leads away from a player like Bennett who we aren't sure of his position and Noel who will take a few years to fill out. I even think that counts out Shabazz.

If they use the top pick, something like VO, CJM, Len, Dieng, Otto, Burke and maybe Kelly Olynyk, seems to be their best chance of not messing up. I feel confident those plays will do what we know they can do at the next level and do it year one. I also expect most if not all to keep good value in about that order.

But if they can get some Mike Muscala, Nate Wolters, Erik Murphy, Reggie Bullock, Erick Green, Pierre Jackson I will feel a lot more confident they will get players that can produce well for their value and draft position that will help and integrate well.

Problem is, it would be so much better if you could actually know who you could get later in the draft before picking earlier in the draft. Because depending on who I could get later, I might take a different player earlier. For me, the keys is Mike Muscala and Erik Murphy. And it would be nice to know who you could get in FA.

There is the real challenge.

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