Official Trade Thread - Part XXV

[FAH1223]

I'd expect Gortat to get a Tiago Splitter deal. 4 years $36 million.

Kevin Durant dreams are going to be long gone.

[verbal8]

I'd do Ariza+seraphin+'Booker for for Williams and Dieng.

I think that could be a good deal for both teams. It probably would take place when both Porter and Turiaf are playing, so each team has some depth. The plus for Minnesota is that Ariza is the best player in the deal and expiring. I think Dieng is the key to it being a good deal for the Wizards, I think he can be a solid back-up center at a good price.

[jivelikenice]

Whats the consensus here on Shumpert? I've been reading where the Knicks may move him now that JR is back. I don't know if we'd have any interest but I was curious about opinions on him. He seems like a good defensive player (although it could just be rep playing in NYC), he can hit an open shot and he can handle the ball at times. Would he be a good target as a 3rd guard to add some backcourt depth? With his size he can also play some 3 in a smaller lineup?

[nuposse04]

Minny guys like Dieng though, and rightfully so. Unless flip likes seraphin better I don't think he'd be prone to trade Dieng.

[nuposse04]

Whats the consensus here on Shumpert? I've been reading where the Knicks may move him now that JR is back. I don't know if we'd have any interest but I was curious about opinions on him. He seems like a good defensive player (although it could just be rep playing in NYC), he can hit an open shot and he can handle the ball at times. Would he be a good target as a 3rd guard to add some backcourt depth? With his size he can also play some 3 in a smaller lineup?

Shumpert will need to be paid pretty well pretty soon. We have enough 3 pt shooters, our primary targets should be long term backup PGs and a 4/5 off the bench.

[payitforward]

I don't really understand the love for Asik. Yes he's a good defender and an elite rebounder, but I don't think I've ever seen him do anything impressive in the post. He's also 27, kind of a known commodity at this point. I don't see him improving too much now. While he is a massive upgrade over our bench, if I had to choose between him and Gortat for the next 3 seasons, I think I'd choose Gortat.

I like Gortat -- quite a bit. But if you compare Asik's numbers to his, Asik is the better player. And younger.

And, "I don't think I've ever seen him do anything impressive in the post" doesn't mean much -- maybe he's done some things you haven't seen? Moreover, you don't judge a player by what he doesn't do; you judge him by the impact of what he *does* do.

That said, it's all kind of irrelevant. We'll keep Gortat, and a smarter GM will wind up with Asik. We're all in to become an average team -- we'll have wasted a #1 pick, a #6 pick, a #3 pick, and another #3 pick (along w/ any number of other assets) to reach that great height. Then, when it falls apart, we'll rebuild again.

By then, Grunfeld will be old enough that he'll be out of the picture. I don't have much confidence in Ted's ability to pick a successor, but it'd be hard to do worse.

[nuposse04]

I don't really understand the love for Asik. Yes he's a good defender and an elite rebounder, but I don't think I've ever seen him do anything impressive in the post. He's also 27, kind of a known commodity at this point. I don't see him improving too much now. While he is a massive upgrade over our bench, if I had to choose between him and Gortat for the next 3 seasons, I think I'd choose Gortat.

I like Gortat -- quite a bit. But if you compare Asik's numbers to his, Asik is the better player. And younger.

And, "I don't think I've ever seen him do anything impressive in the post" doesn't mean much -- maybe he's done some things you haven't seen? Moreover, you don't judge a player by what he doesn't do; you judge him by the impact of what he *does* do.

That said, it's all kind of irrelevant. We'll keep Gortat, and a smarter GM will wind up with Asik. We're all in to become an average team -- we'll have wasted a #1 pick, a #6 pick, a #3 pick, and another #3 pick (along w/ any number of other assets) to reach that great height. Then, when it falls apart, we'll rebuild again.

By then, Grunfeld will be old enough that he'll be out of the picture. I don't have much confidence in Ted's ability to pick a successor, but it'd be hard to do worse.

I don't think he's a better player. I think he's a marginal offensive player who knows how to play within himself for the most part but pays no real dividends in half court sets outside of offensive rebounds. His utility is mainly on the boards and man D. While I think he could start on many teams, I don't think he is a player I would covet. I think he would help accrue some regular season wins as he'd patch up the backup center spot for us, but from every game I've seen of him...his hands aren't that great, not a reliable FT shooter and rather uninspiring post game for someone his size. He's the perfect backup big I suppose...but if you plan to advance in the playoffs with him as your starting center...you better have one talented PF. He's efficient, but unspectacular..Kind of like prime brendan haywood. Oh and HOU is really not helping his trade value by playing him next to Howard.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My expectation is that Gortat will get a four year deal and Ernie/Ted will be forced to bite the bullet and pay it. If they don't. He's gone.

Ariza is a different story. I'd be shocked if he's back. What would that say about Porter if we not only keep Martell, but we also keep Ariza the following year? I doubt Porter is a 3rd string SF going into next year. Plus Ariza is probably looking for the most money out there. Either Ariza gets traded this season or leaves as a free agent in the offseason.

Agreed on both counts. Ariza is gone and we are going to make a big offer to Gortat.

Agreed. Ariza is gone this offseason. They should view Otto as potentially a rich man's Ariza. If we strike out on a max RFA, then I have no problem re-signing Marcin on a short term deal based on what we've seen. At that point we should use the balance of our cap space on a 3rd big (maybe an amenstied player?) or a combo guard.

Agree on Ariza. He is balling but I seriously doubt he'll be back next season.

The Wizards IMO should have drafted Kelly Olynyk and Nate Wolters. Maynor is third in the NBA in assist to turnover ratio. Andre Miller is second. NATE WOLTERS is first. Wolters is already at least a good backup at 22. Boston is winning games, even against the Heat, with KO starting. Washington woukd have been WAY BETTER OFF drafting those two playersn...and actually keeping them. Trading Wolters was a big mistake!

They could have saved the pick they traded to rent Gortat. They could have signed Blair for even less than what they paid Maynor. They also could have waited until later to trade Okafor; perhaps as part of a larger trade (like for Carmelo Anthony). That same pick used for Gortat with Ariza/Okafor might have been enough. Had they drafted Olynk (or Zeller or Adams) and Wolters they would not have used "all their powder" in a playoffs or bust myopic frame of mind.

Year after year they don't get it right. It's like they take great ideas and laugh at me each year. Well, I think they earned every insult I can think to hurl their way.

Drafting Otto, after signing Webster and keeping contract year, balling Ariza (with SF not a need), made little sense. Mr. Leonsis for what I suggested you coukd have succeeded years back. But keep doing business as usual ....

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[noworriesinmd]

Just because a player is ballin on another team does not mean they would be good on the Wiz.

I remember after the BkLyN game everyone was talking about Livingston.....however I remember, he was called worthless on this board MANY times.

I agree that our draft and personnel strategy has been horrible. That points to one person only.
Until I see that person go, I will reserve judgement on the players and coach.

[fishercob]

I'd expect Gortat to get a Tiago Splitter deal. 4 years $36 million.

When you apply this logic, Nivek's 4/$50M estimate makes more sense.

When Webster hit free agency, I expected him to get Danny Green money -- 3 years, $11.2M. Webster instead signs for four years, $22M. The Spurs get their players to buy in (literally) to the whole being more important than the individual. The Wizards nearly always pay top dollar.

[tontoz]

I'd expect Gortat to get a Tiago Splitter deal. 4 years $36 million.

When you apply this logic, Nivek's 4/$50M estimate makes more sense.

When Webster hit free agency, I expected him to get Danny Green money -- 3 years, $11.2M. Webster instead signs for four years, $22M. The Spurs get their players to buy in (literally) to the whole being more important than the individual. The Wizards nearly always pay top dollar.

Even when there are not other bidders. That's because EG is an invertebrate.....no spine.

[shrink]

Minny guys like Dieng though, and rightfully so. Unless flip likes seraphin better I don't think he'd be prone to trade Dieng.

As a MIN fan, I'd say that's pretty accurate. Flip traded down in the draft to get that extra pic, which he used on Dieng, so I think he's his guy (unlike Shabazz, that I think was just a value choice at 14). Adelman likes Dieng also and gives him minutes. His defense and role as a rim-protector matches well with Love, and his low salary fits well in the future with $12+ mil deals on Pek and Love.

I'd also mention that while I think Ariza would be a nice fit on the Wolves, Corey Brewer has been crazy good so far. He plays defense, hits corner threes, and runs down the court for Love outlet passes. This time around in MIN, with a more defined role, he's been terrific. I think Williams would certainly benefit from a defined role (or even a defined position!) as well -- he's just not going to get it on the Wolves.

Finally, I'll mention that Ariza would be a rental for MIN. They won't re-sign him and jeopardize their Rubio money unless they send out some other swingman. Ariza > Williams right now, so the win-now Wolves may do the deal straight up, but they liked Williams enough to give him that extra year.

[LyricalRico]

Chemistry issues already surfacing in Detroit, just as many predicted after they signed Josh Smith to play SF. How about adding shrink's Ariza-to-Minny idea to this deal to get Monroe:

Wizards trade: Ariza, Porter and Booker
Wizards receive: Monroe and Shved

Wolves trade: DWill and Shved
Wolves receive: Ariza and Booker

Pistons trade: Monroe
Pistons receive: DWill and Porter

Seems like Detroit would need a bit more, unless they really love both guys. Maybe we can add some type of conditional future first (if that's allowed).

[nate33]

I think the real problem is that Derrick Williams has no trade value whatsoever. It's looking more and more like he's a bust - merely a high volume, low efficiency offensive player who is undersized defensively. He's Thomas Robinson all over again. I don't even think he's worth Ariza straight up - other than for the fact that we are unlikely to retain Ariza since we have 2 other SF's under contract.

Minnesota siphons value off this deal. If we could launder Ariza somewhere else, with a respectable 3rd big going to Detroit, it would make more sense. For example, if Ariza went to Toronto with Amir Johnson going to Detroit (along with Porter), then it starts making sense. (Unfortunately, Toronto needs Johnson more than they need Ariza so that suggestion wouldn't work either, but you get the idea.)

[Upper Decker]

Chemistry issues already surfacing in Detroit, just as many predicted after they signed Josh Smith to play SF. How about adding shrink's Ariza-to-Minny idea to this deal to get Monroe:

Wizards trade: Ariza, Porter and Booker
Wizards receive: Monroe and Shved

Wolves trade: DWill and Shved
Wolves receive: Ariza and Booker

Pistons trade: Monroe
Pistons receive: DWill and Porter

Seems like Detroit would need a bit more, unless they really love both guys. Maybe we can add some type of conditional future first (if that's allowed).

Don't worry LR, the Wizards roster is loaded with recent mid to high 1st round draft picks that can be added for incentive...wait a minute?!

[Dark Faze]

I honestly think a trade of Tristan Thompson and CJ Miles for Trevor Ariza would be great for both teams.

As much as the Cavs like Tristan, he's not a great a player, plays their number 1 picks position (Bennett), and they have big man depth in the form of Bynum and Varejao.

They can give Karasev all of Miles' minutes, throw Bennett into the fire and see what they really have, while getting a player that's GREAT for them in Ariza.

Irving, Waiters, Ariza, Bennett, Bynum.

For us I think it solves a lot of problems. We can move Nene to the bench and get a better, more physical player and defender in Thompson and give Miles all of Maynors minutes.

Wall, Beal, Webster, Thompson, Gortat
Miles, Rice, Porter, Nene, Seraphin

[nate33]

I'd love that trade, but I don't see the Cavs doing it. Thompson is a solid big man who can start in this league. You don't give a guy like that away for a 28-year-old 3&D wing player on an expiring contract.

[LyricalRico]

I'd love that trade, but I don't see the Cavs doing it. Thompson is a solid big man who can start in this league. You don't give a guy like that away for a 28-year-old 3&D wing player on an expiring contract.

And if the rumors of Cleveland trying to get Luol Deng over the summer were true, I would guess they'd try to get him instead of Ariza.

[Dark Faze]

I'd love that trade, but I don't see the Cavs doing it. Thompson is a solid big man who can start in this league. You don't give a guy like that away for a 28-year-old 3&D wing player on an expiring contract.

I don't know how much his stats reflect that. A 13 and 10 player in an absurd 38 MPG. Advanced stats are really unimpressive--low offensive rating, simply average defensive rating, he isn't even an elite rebounder.

And he's inevitably a bench player for them. They took Bennett first overall. They have no choice but to eventually start him, otherwise the GM might as well just quit.

[nate33]

I'd love that trade, but I don't see the Cavs doing it. Thompson is a solid big man who can start in this league. You don't give a guy like that away for a 28-year-old 3&D wing player on an expiring contract.

I don't know how much his stats reflect that. A 13 and 10 player in an absurd 38 MPG. Advanced stats are really unimpressive--low offensive rating, simply average defensive rating, he isn't even an elite rebounder.

And he's inevitably a bench player for them. They took Bennett first overall. They have no choice but to eventually start him, otherwise the GM might as well just quit.

Low sample size.

Last year, Thompson posted an ORtg of 108 and a PER of 16.1 at age 21 while being an iron man who didn't miss a game. Here's a list of players 6-8 and over, age 21 or less, who broke a PER of 15.5 and an ORtg of 107, and had a DRtg less than 110.

Some good names on that list. Admittedly, Thompson belongs near the bottom of that list alongside guys like Buck Williams, Thad Young and Joe Smith; but it still suggests he's going to be a real solid NBA player.