Is Wall Top 5 PG?

[payitforward]

Wall is a winner and that's all that matters. Focusing on his turnovers after he single handedly won us the game last night is laughable.

Brett Favre was known as a gun slinger and was guaranteed to turn the ball over frequently. Interceptions were expected from him. Yet, he's still one of the greatest hall of fame QB's to ever play the game of football.

In this case, Walls positives definitely overshadows his negatives.

Ummm, did anyone say they didn't? Was that the question being raised?

At question is whether he is among the top 5 PGs in the league. Answer is no, he's not. He's very very good, but he's not among the top 5. He's also still young, and he might very well keep getting better. He might be among the top 5; he might be the best. One day. Not now.

As to "a winner and that's all that matters" -- we're tied for 8th best record out of 30 teams. I guess you must think John Wall is in the top 27% of all point guards? If winning is all that matters?

[payitforward]

When you have the ball in your hands as much as Wall does, turnovers are bound to come up. IIRC Steve Nash had a bunch of turnovers his MVP years as well....

Well, it's true you can't turn the ball over unless it's in your hands. Can't argue with that.

That must be why Chris Paul turns it over so much? Kyle Lowry as well?

As to Steve Nash -- go take a look at his eFG% and TS%.

[payitforward]

He is definitely in the conversation:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=vorp

Like I said, I little more scoring efficiency and it won't be a debate anymore. He has to get that TS into the .560 range or better. He is at .521 He can do that by making a higher % of FTs back to last year levels and getting his 3 ball back up to .350 which was his last year level.

He is right on the border for overall PG. But if you are talking high usage passing PG, he is already there.

Eh, a lot more goes into TS than just raw percentages. ...The amount of shots he takes from mid range is the entire reason his TS is low in the first place.

Huh? Actually, raw percentages are the only thing that goes into the formula for TS%. Along with number of shots and FTs. John gets to the line a fair amount. The problem with his mid-range shooting is not that he takes too many of that kind of shot, but that he misses too many of them. That will definitely bring down your 2pt FG%. Thing is, if he shot more 3 balls -- I guess that's what you're suggesting? -- his TS% wouldn't go up, not given his current 3pt FG%.

[CobraCommander]

Turnovers ARE an issue with Wall, and it's not nitpicking to say so. This season, among all guards who qualify for the assists leader board, Wall has the third most turnovers per possession. The only guys with more are Tony Wroten and James Harden, neither of whom is a PG.

If I look at players who get 10+ assists per 100 possessions (minimum 150 total minutes played this season), Wall has the third most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Russell Westbrook and Michael Carter-Williams.

If I screen out the non-scorers (anyone below 25 points per 100 possessions -- Wall's at 25.7), he has the 2nd most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Westbrook. Here's the list:

1. Chris Paul -- 2.4
2. Kyle Lowry -- 2.8
3. Mike Conley -- 3.5
4. Stephen Curry -- 4.8
5. Jeff Teague -- 5.0
6. Lebron James -- 5.4
7. John Wall -- 5.8
8. Russell Westbrook -- 8.0

The guys that you have sandwiched wall with invalidate your argument because they are both ranked/rated higher than wall and considered some of the best players in the league. I agree he needs to improve his turn over ratio but so does Curry, Lebron and Westbrook. I would rather wall kept pushing it instead of worrying about the bs turn overs like charges that can go either way (which he got two of last night). I see wall shooting and turning it over a process of him growing and learning- I'm not saying his game is perfect I'm just saying turn overs are a product of his current style of play. He will refine as he gets older

[Nivek]

Yeah, best thing Wall can do to raise his TS% is make more shots.

However, shifting his shot selection to more threes than 2pt jumpers would likely raise his TS% given current shooting rates. His efg on 2pt shots from more than three feet is .390. His efg on 3pt attempts is .464. In other words, 0.78 points per shot on those 2pt attempts from beyond three feet vs. 0.93 points per shot on 3pt attempts.

[Nivek]

Turnovers ARE an issue with Wall, and it's not nitpicking to say so. This season, among all guards who qualify for the assists leader board, Wall has the third most turnovers per possession. The only guys with more are Tony Wroten and James Harden, neither of whom is a PG.

If I look at players who get 10+ assists per 100 possessions (minimum 150 total minutes played this season), Wall has the third most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Russell Westbrook and Michael Carter-Williams.

If I screen out the non-scorers (anyone below 25 points per 100 possessions -- Wall's at 25.7), he has the 2nd most turnovers per 100 possessions behind Westbrook. Here's the list:

1. Chris Paul -- 2.4
2. Kyle Lowry -- 2.8
3. Mike Conley -- 3.5
4. Stephen Curry -- 4.8
5. Jeff Teague -- 5.0
6. Lebron James -- 5.4
7. John Wall -- 5.8
8. Russell Westbrook -- 8.0

The guys that you have sandwiched wall with invalidate your argument because they are both ranked/rated higher than wall and considered some of the best players in the league. I agree he needs to improve his turn over ratio but so does Curry, Lebron and Westbrook. I would rather wall kept pushing it instead of worrying about the bs turn overs like charges that can go either way (which he got two of last night). I see wall shooting and turning it over a process of him growing and learning- I'm not saying his game is perfect I'm just saying turn overs are a product of his current style of play. He will refine as he gets older

So, you contend that the numbers invalidate my "argument" and then agree with it?

Cool.

[dlts20]

you guys nit pick so much stuff. He has a higher assit to turnover ratio then guys like Teague so who cares about the turnovers? Also, stop always just grouping guys by stats without taking into context of the systems and the style of play. Again, his numbers would look alot different all around if he played with a true stretch big. Everytime we go small he carves teams up and he magically starts getting to the rim at will. Its just harder to do when you start Gortat-Nene and you have a coach who tells him to shoot the J.

I watch these other teams and their o is way more free flowing then ours. Its much more wide open. It just is. You cant just gauge who is better. You put Wall in the Raps lineup and he kills it. You put Wall on the Suns last year with Frye and you wouldnt be able to compare Dragic & Bledsoe to him. Again, just watch the 4th quarter of the first C's game and the 2nd OT when we were down 7 and Witt took Gortat out. That is the Wall you would see all the time if he didnt have to play with 2 true bigs.

Put him on BK last year with Kidd playing Pierce at the 4 and watch how crazy his numbers would be. Stats are good but you have to put the all into context. I mean if we start Gortat-Nene-Hump all at the same time, you think his numbers are still going to be the same? You think it wont effect anything? If you play with a running team or a motion O vs a low post halfcourt O, you think it doesnt effect anything? I hate it when fans judge all these guys the same without taking other factors into context.

[pancakes3]

From the few bits and pieces that I've been able to pick up, it looks like Wall's made huge strides in his change-of-pace game and has passed Rondo as far as not being a shooting liability. The turnovers are a bit worrisome to me despite the a/to ratio. TO's are never a good thing even if it's offset by assists. Frankly, I don't know how useful a stat that assist/turnover REALLY is.

Had to b-r Wall and check how old he was. STILL just only 24. Amazing.

[hands11]

Yeah, best thing Wall can do to raise his TS% is make more shots.

However, shifting his shot selection to more threes than 2pt jumpers would likely raise his TS% given current shooting rates. His efg on 2pt shots from more than three feet is .390. His efg on 3pt attempts is .464. In other words, 0.78 points per shot on those 2pt attempts from beyond three feet vs. 0.93 points per shot on 3pt attempts.

Right.

So if he just gets back to his norm for FT shooting % and close to last years number from 3 ( not yet a norm since last year was the first year he showed he could shoot from three ) then he should raise that TS and get more solid placement as a top 5 PG regardless of if people are looking at passing PGs or scoring PGs.

This year, his FTr is back up from .295 to .378 which still isn't as high as his first 3 years where he was in the .400's with a peak of .450.

But now his 3PAr is down from .230 to .186 and he % down from .351 to .309

His FT shooting is .777 down from low .800's the last two years.

So the easiest thing to fix is just making more of the FTAs he already gets. That will help some.
Getting back to .350% from 3 and I suspect would help more in regards to getting his TS up into the .550/.560% range from his current .521.

I haven't actually run the numbers to see exactly the end results, but as a wage, looks like that should get him in range. A little better FT shooting. Get back to his 3P % range of last year and just a little more 3 ball shooting.

That should do it. Add that to a winning team and he should be solid top 5 PG regardless of what kind of PG you like.

[hands11]

you guys nit pick so much stuff. He has a higher assit to turnover ratio then guys like Teague so who cares about the turnovers? Also, stop always just grouping guys by stats without taking into context of the systems and the style of play. Again, his numbers would look alot different all around if he played with a true stretch big. Everytime we go small he carves teams up and he magically starts getting to the rim at will. Its just harder to do when you start Gortat-Nene and you have a coach who tells him to shoot the J.

I watch these other teams and their o is way more free flowing then ours. Its much more wide open. It just is. You cant just gauge who is better. You put Wall in the Raps lineup and he kills it. You put Wall on the Suns last year with Frye and you wouldnt be able to compare Dragic & Bledsoe to him. Again, just watch the 4th quarter of the first C's game and the 2nd OT when we were down 7 and Witt took Gortat out. That is the Wall you would see all the time if he didnt have to play with 2 true bigs.

Put him on BK last year with Kidd playing Pierce at the 4 and watch how crazy his numbers would be. Stats are good but you have to put the all into context. I mean if we start Gortat-Nene-Hump all at the same time, you think his numbers are still going to be the same? You think it wont effect anything? If you play with a running team or a motion O vs a low post halfcourt O, you think it doesnt effect anything? I hate it when fans judge all these guys the same without taking other factors into context.

So true.

We can debate numbers. It is one data point worthy of doing. But context is also important. The challenge with doing that is that it is a little harder because its something that you can only speculate. Granted, I think you are spot on in what you are saying regarding his numbers and systems so its a solid speculation, but since its not what we are seeing a lot of yet, its not in his numbers and the numbers are there in black and white so they give something easier to point to.

Numbers are always backward looking and don't tell the entire story. But they have their place in the debate.

Adding in the eye test, I think its easy to see Wall still has more room to grown and get more efficient. He is doing well growing his game and settling down as the PG regarding knowing what to do and when. If he is right on the edge of a top 5 PG now, I think its easy to project he will only become more solid in that placement as time goes on. He is young. CP3 is 29. Lowry is 28 and will be 29 in March. Wall is 24

I think what fair to say at this point is, the league has some good PGs. Being top 5 is a relative comparison to what is in the league at any given time. At any given point, the top 5 PG then can be compared with different time periods.

[Nivek]

Man folks sure do get defensive about Wall.

I like Wall a lot. He's a terrific player, and worth every penny he's getting. I'm very happy the Wizards have him.

Yet...he can play better. A lot better. Talking about his turnovers may seem like nitpicking, but it's an area where he can (and should) do better. Some turnovers are inevitable, but Wall gets careless at times, and his carelessness in those instances wastes possessions and costs the team points. That doesn't matter much when they're playing a sorry team like nearly everyone in the East, but it's likely to matter a lot against better opponents and when they're in the playoffs.

I think that his best years are still ahead of him. I think he can be the best PG in the NBA. But, he's not that now, and he won't be if he doesn't improve certain aspects of his game -- shooting/shot selection and turnovers.

[fishercob]

Man folks sure do get defensive about Wall.

I like Wall a lot. He's a terrific player, and worth every penny he's getting. I'm very happy the Wizards have him.

Yet...he can play better. A lot better. Talking about his turnovers may seem like nitpicking, but it's an area where he can (and should) do better. Some turnovers are inevitable, but Wall gets careless at times, and his carelessness in those instances waste possessions and cost the team points. That doesn't matter much when they're playing a sorry team like nearly everyone in the East, but it's likely to matter a lot against better opponents and when they're in the playoffs.

I think that his best years are still ahead of him. I think he can be the best PG in the NBA. But, he's not that now, and he won't be if he doesn't improve certain aspects of his game -- shooting/shot selection and turnovers.

Before even seeing this post, it occurred to me that Wall's needed areas of improvement -- shot selection and turnovers -- strike me as areas that he both can and will improve in. I think it just takes take and maturation. He's shown that he can get better, and I think he'll continue to do so. A John Wall who takes better shots and turns it over less will wreak havoc on the league. Yay.

[tontoz]

Two years ago Nivek was criticizing Wall about his turnovers. At the time i argued that i wasn't worried about it, that he was a young guy who had gone through some difficult circumstances (lockout, injuries, poor teamates). I will willing to cut Wall some slack, hoping that he would learn over time and reduces his turnovers.

Here we are 2 years later and he hasn't made any improvement in his turnovers or his TS. Granted it is still early in the season but it would be nice to actually see some improvement instead of just hoping for it.

[Dat2U]

ESPN's RPM thingy seems to back this up, but IMO it appears Wall's impact is greater than the raw numbers. Maybe it's because when he locks in defensively he really does wreck an opponents offense.

Offensively, yes, he's got a lot of room for continued growth, specifically in waisting less possessions. I'm more worried about the long 2s than the TOs as he's not getting any help from the coaching staff on tamping those down. The last few games the long 2s have been trending downward so maybe that's a hopeful sign.

[Dat2U]

Two years ago Nivek was criticizing Wall about his turnovers. At the time i argued that i wasn't worried about it, that he was a young guy who had gone through some difficult circumstances (lockout, injuries, poor teamates). I will willing to cut Wall some slack, hoping that he would learn over time and reduces his turnovers.

Here we are 2 years later and he hasn't made any improvement in his turnovers or his TS. Granted it is still early in the season but it would be nice to actually see some improvement instead of just hoping for it.

Yeah, your right, maybe he is never gonna get it. Maybe we can get a PG with a lower TO rate & higher TS number. Brian Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the league. Or How bout Cory Joseph? Guys with a higher TS? Where do I begin? Pablo Prigioni is killing it with a .659 TS%. Or how bout Kendall Marshall with a gaudy .608. Maybe we could do a 2 for 1 deal and get a good shooter AND someone that doesn't turn over the ball. Where's CCJ at?

[tontoz]

Two years ago Nivek was criticizing Wall about his turnovers. At the time i argued that i wasn't worried about it, that he was a young guy who had gone through some difficult circumstances (lockout, injuries, poor teamates). I will willing to cut Wall some slack, hoping that he would learn over time and reduces his turnovers.

Here we are 2 years later and he hasn't made any improvement in his turnovers or his TS. Granted it is still early in the season but it would be nice to actually see some improvement instead of just hoping for it.

Yeah, your right, maybe he is never gonna get it. Maybe we can get a PG with a lower TO rate & higher TS number. Brian Roberts has the lowest TO rate in the league. Or How bout Cory Joseph? Guys with a higher TS? Where do I begin? Pablo Prigioni is killing it with a .659 TS%. Or how bout Kendall Marshall with a gaudy .608. Maybe we could do a 2 for 1 deal and get a good shooter AND someone that doesn't turn over the ball. Where's CCJ at?

I think you have me confused with someone else. I am not posting Wall trades or saying some rookie will be better than Wall.

All I am saying is that in order for him to be a top 5 pg he needs to cut down his turnovers and improve his TS, two things he hasn't done over the last two years. I don't see why that is such a controversial opinion.

[Kanyewest]

you guys nit pick so much stuff. He has a higher assit to turnover ratio then guys like Teague so who cares about the turnovers? Also, stop always just grouping guys by stats without taking into context of the systems and the style of play. Again, his numbers would look alot different all around if he played with a true stretch big. Everytime we go small he carves teams up and he magically starts getting to the rim at will. Its just harder to do when you start Gortat-Nene and you have a coach who tells him to shoot the J.

I watch these other teams and their o is way more free flowing then ours. Its much more wide open. It just is. You cant just gauge who is better. You put Wall in the Raps lineup and he kills it. You put Wall on the Suns last year with Frye and you wouldnt be able to compare Dragic & Bledsoe to him. Again, just watch the 4th quarter of the first C's game and the 2nd OT when we were down 7 and Witt took Gortat out. That is the Wall you would see all the time if he didnt have to play with 2 true bigs.

Put him on BK last year with Kidd playing Pierce at the 4 and watch how crazy his numbers would be. Stats are good but you have to put the all into context. I mean if we start Gortat-Nene-Hump all at the same time, you think his numbers are still going to be the same? You think it wont effect anything? If you play with a running team or a motion O vs a low post halfcourt O, you think it doesnt effect anything? I hate it when fans judge all these guys the same without taking other factors into context.

Perhaps a different offense would lower turnovers. A stretch 4 may help but even the turnover rates of a guy like Steph Curry is pretty high. I would think that Curry's turnover rate would be even higher if he handled the ball as much as John Wall.

The big thing for me is that Wall's 3 point shooting has regressed so far- so much so that Wall is taking 1 less 3 per game than last season. I hope Wall continues to work on that shot because the Wizards playoff fortunes may rest upon him knocking down a couple of open 3s.

And sometimes he just goes through stretches where he is turnover prone. Wall had 0 turnovers against the Celtics in the first half. All his turnovers occurred in the 2nd half, 5 in the 3rd quarter and 4 in the 4th quarter.

[Kanyewest]

BTW here's a breakdown of the turnovers from the last game (the last one probably should have gotten Wall free throws)

1. John Wall ran a fast break which he threw an alley oop to Beal, which was mistimed
2. Wall throws an alley oop to Gortat off a backdoor cut which was knocked away
3. Wall Jumps in the air off a drive and has nowhere to pass the ball
4. Wall tries a crossover and gets the ball stolen by Marcus Smart
5. Wall again crosses up Marcus Smart but gets the ball stolen from a deflection from behind
6. Wall telegraph’s a pass to Pierce which results in a clear path foul
7. Wall jumps up in the air and tries to pass the ball but has nowhere to go
8. Instead of taking the open 3 pointer, Wall tries to drive in the lane and Smart draws an offensive foul
9. Wall drives into the lane and gets called for an offensive foul – which was probably a blocking foul

http://on.nba.com/1yuCvSW

[Ruzious]

I'd like to see him drive all the way to the basket more - and I think that can help in decreasing his to's. A lot of his to's are from when he drives just to the foul line and dishes out for a corner 3 as defenders peal off him to cover the passing lane knowing he's most likely not going all the way to the hoop. The more he drives to finish, the less defenders can cheat to the passing lanes. Then again, the more hard fouls he takes, so there's a trade-off, and he does have to pick his spots. He picked em right in the 2nd OT against Boston.

[dobrojim]

I'd just like to see him jump to pass less frequently. Yes he gets away with it a lot
but it's still a fundamentally unsound practice. You would never teach a budding
young PG in HS to do that. You would teach them NOT to do that. And for good
reasons.