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Political Roundtable Part XVII

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stilldropin20
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#161 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:17 am

Wizardspride wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
I don't know. I've read and watched enough reporting about Trump voters to realize there's a strong cognitive dissonance. Years of right wing messaging and brain washing actually has them believing that their services won't be cut, but rather the people that don't deserve it like the blacks, poors and immigrants.
So you're fine with doing away with social security etc and think most Trump voters are fine with it too.


The most frustrating example is a woman that needs the Obamacare to live. She voted for Trump and when the reporter tells her that Trump said he'd get rid of Obamacare, he asks what she'll do if that happens. She says that she'll just accept death. The answer isn't to just die, you vote for the politicians that want to save and improve Obamacare. You donate or join local organizations that are making a push to save Obamacare. Jesus do everything you can to save it, your ideology isn't worth your life.

Sorry for the rant but long story short Republicans are transparent in their attempt to gut social services. it's been that way for decades. But yet the people who need these still keep handing them power.





see thats just it! Liberals are very selfish and very self serving.

This woman cares more about her country than herself. She would rather the country be well and prsoper than have obamacare.

and I would too. I love myself. I love my life. its been amazing. I have no regrets. But frankly I care more about the good of the human race and espeically the United States more than myself. I would rather die at 70 than be a financial burden for 10-20 years on the rest of the tax payers. thats my personal belief for myself. and thats how i see for everyone else.

now if i save some money and want to pay for my own healthcare? or if anyone else does? fine. But why burden your neighbors and friends??

speaking of neighbors...I'm hungry. I want steak tonight!!!! which one of you muthaphuckers is buying me my steak dinner tonight???? I'm muthaphunkin hungry biotches!!!!! Get my phunkin steak over!! STAT!!!

See how that sounds? Thats how you whiny liberals sound to me.

Ok, Now that you got that off your chest, how do you think Trump voters (in general) will react if the GOP goes after those programs?

And I'm not talking about just cutting these benefits. I'm talking about ending them all together..which has always been the goal of the GOP.


Good question. what you realy are asking is how does trump remain in office? And/or how can GOP congressmen remain in office if the bring that kind of legislation to his desk and he signs it?

Tough sell right? not becuase these programs are good for americans or good for the country. they are not good. Not long term. they were all suppose to be temorary. Even social security. SS was suppose to be a win for the US government-who would "keep your money now, earn interest on it for 30 years and pay it back to you at 62, then 65, then 67, now going for 70 and in the high hopes that you die before then. Trust me folks. the bean counters at the IRS and SS office all hope you die before you re-collect your own money. I hope that isn't some "new concept" for too many liberals. emphasis on "too,"

So how do they sell and remain in office? they dont. They do what everyone else has done. stage the retirement and payout ages and payouts in such a way so as to make it sustainable. and give people like me options to keep my money and not collect SS.

Now dont get me wrong. I would never turn it down in its current state. its a windfall for people like me who are 100% healthy, eat well and exercise. I will likely recoup all of my pay in. But most dont. and those that pay in little to nothing over collect.

and TBH SS is not the worst culprit. If done right, the US Goverment should actually "win." they just need to keep moving back the payout ages and retirement ages and society lives longer so as not to "lose money." make the program work and pay for itself and its fine. Its when it does NOT pay for itself that we have a problem. For me? id rather put my annual 4.5 for midicaid/SS into real estate. I'm a savvy investor and my real estate holding do at least 20% annually in cap and another 7% in appreciation. national average is about 10% and 4% though. which is still better than paying 4.5% into medicaid/ss for those people that die before they are 70(which is over half of the population). So if you just buy real estate with that money and as well as hedge it with a term life before you turn 38, you have actually done quite better for your spouse or your children(and yourself if you live beyond 68). and by quite better i mean minimally $500k-multi-Millions better than what you will collect in SS depending on when you die and how smart you were with your real estate. People like me should be given an option. i can do far better with that money each year than the government can and I can sell off my investments or borrow against them way before i turn 65 if i need/want the cash. But people like cammac will argue that my money (again) is necessary to pay for my neighbors SS benefits. To which i say to Cammac, where the phuck is my steak phuckin dinner tonight, muthaphucka!!!??? I want steak!! and I want it now!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

welfare, food stamps and medicare are even more ridiculous than SS/medicaid. Again, i have no problem with "help" or a fresh start for a "brief" period of time to get someone on their feet. but the real purpose of government is not to provide free things, especially long term. the real purpose is to provide a pathway to education which will provide a pathway to employment. but we can NOT have system of entitlements where young girls (and boys?) are encouraged to have babies just to collect a check each month. and collect it for 18 years. this is not a proper environment to raise children. These children that grow up on this "system" 16 year-olds that were raised by 16 year olds that now have 3 children of their own. are. completely. lost. they dont know which way is up. It often takes decades to recover from this type of upbringing. and maybe 1 in 10 children escape the entitlement "trap." Drugs, violence, abuse, and neglect are rampant in these households. they simply dont know better. are overwhelmed. and often end up bitter and angry. its a vicious cycle and I would argue its evil and ends up repeating itself generation after generation. Our government should NOT encourage this as an option or lifestyle. yet it does and has done so for over 50 years.

Instead? we can identify children that might fall prey to this entitlement "trap" and let them know that there will be no "free check for longer than saaaaay 6 months? every 3 years? that if "they want the check" they will have to "work." And I would put fathers into jail for not paying child support. Separate jails than regular prison. these jails would be state sponsored labor camps where dead beat dads must show up and work and the child support gets taken from their checks.

get corporations involved. get small business involved. and give them tax breaks to hire these kids or old people. Another anecdote, this is actually an untapped market. My best employees are single and semi single moms that do NOT have college degrees and do NOT want to live off of entitlements but are too busy being moms to find/keep gainful employment at a large corporation. if they are coming off entitlements and You give them a good job, with a good paycheck, and a sense of purpose and room for growth, they will work for you like its their own business. But you often have to let them arrive later or leave early due to being a single mom. Or sporadic days off. which a lot of corporate places wont allow. and it forces me have to keep more people on staff. so it costs me more money. if the US government was smart, they would reward small business like mine to hire entitlement risks. I should be awarded tax breaks for putting these young single moms to work that would have trouble finding employment elsewhere. But again, I figured out that if I over pay them and let them slide on some things I end up with the most loyal employees literally on the planet that are extremely happy and extremely grateful. But again. Most corporations dont have the patience for that and their bean counters wont over pay.

As an aside it will help bring low wage manufacturing back to the united states if you force dead beat dads work those low skilled jobs (or got to jail or as a form of jail)...until they are gainfully employed elsewhere and can pay their child support.

Now Is that all you got? what can i fix next??? give me something hard man!
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#162 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:43 am



obama had 8 years of MSM sucking his nadz. and only edged trump, Dr. Evil, by 3 points? 17% to 14% even after 15 straight months of getting dumped on by CNN and NBC?? yeah, I'm not impressed with the victory.

buried lead? new comer Nikki haley taking 1% of female vote while HRC and Michelle took about about 8% each. haley comes in 9th! There's your next president ladies and gentlemen. :nod: :nod:
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#163 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:24 pm

Wizardspride wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
stilldropin20 wrote:
ma gawd!!! do your own damn research on that particular post. Obama and the Clinton "got uber wealthy" upon leaving the white house.

and trumps net worth has gone down. His brand has taken a major hit from half of the country. Lots of people wont step foot in his hotels where prior they would often visit. He has also had to kill deals overseas due to conflict of interest.

Come on guys. What are you peddling. Your stupid effin "heros" got rich while in office or shortly after being in office. Obama 11 times richer and he just left!!!! Clintons over 1000 times wealthier. That's not a problem for you??????

yet you want to put trump's finances under a damn microscope?? The hypocrisy is blinding !!! The irony deafening!!! The audacity overwhelming!!!!

Out of curiosity, where did the majority of Obama's wealth come from?

Hey sd20. Maybe you missed this post so I"'ll ask again: Where did the majority of President Obama's wealth come from?

I'll wait for your response


Thanks


You and I both know the answer. Obama's current wealth is mostly from book deals. which is clean enough for me. But the DOJ should track and unveil even those dollars. especially the $90M advance he signed when he left office. So its not about just current net worth. its about all the potential future assets. I say watch it all. track it all. surveil this man. same for the clintons. same for the heads of his entire cabinet and depart heads. all of them. they were running a damn cartel!

Dont ever forget what i told you all when i began posting. the real scandal is Uranium One. Selling american uranium to russia. and it left the US via canada and was shipped overseas. Thats a big effin deal man!!! Obama had not collected his "share" yet on those deals. the plan was to collect once HRC won.

HRC/WJC/clinton foundation(s) already made hundreds of millions off of that deal alone.

That was part of her stepping down in 2008 paving the way for Obama to run and win the general. She was made sec of state and as head of state she and the FBI, CIA, and NSA all looked the other way and as they signed off on Uranium One deal a year later. WJC was already negotiating this deal beginning in 2006. It was no secret that HRC was going to run in 2008 and everyone thought she'd win then. Penny Pritzker got in her way via Barrack Obama. If one "white" devil wasnt enough Obama apparently made a second deal with another, HRC. Which is odd. for such a smart man.

And the entire Uranium One deal was done under Obama's watch. That one is going to hurt him at some point.

And Thats the real scandal. thats the real russia story. Thats why they cooked up the dossier which was used to obtain a FISA warrant on a GOP nominee Donald trump and his election team. Once he began to carve out a path to victory they had to stop him. A cooked up dossier to surveil trump a private citizen who was going to become the nest US president. You literally cant make this stuff up. Thats why CNN and NBC ran with their fake polls for 15 straight months. Even playing the grab em by th epuzzy take for 1 month straight couldn't stop the man. The last ditch effort was for Obama to booby trapped the entire DOJ on his way out and impeach trump before he and his team could shine a full light on all of this.

because this goose was cooked. HRC was suppose to be president this whole time. it was Obama's turn to tour the world and "get rich." He would go off and negotiate more deals (in violation of the logan act) while HRC was president and it was all going to continue to be swept under the rug. Obama was going to become the billionaire and nothing was going to stop him.

But something happened to Obama and Michelle and the clinton's on their way to the piggy bank. the american people happened. they saw through it. against all effin odds!!! they saw through it!!! they made the right choice. Its all coming to light now. this tale is so dark. and so twisted that most of it will be sealed. But past and present DOJ officials will retire.lose pensions. and some will even do time. Hopefully wealth will be confiscated. they know too much that will harm the US even worse if they are brought to true justice so the penalties wont be too harsh. But their time is up. and thats enough for me.

But yeah, Obama is still going to tour. still going to raise money for the DNC. His foundation will grow. and that is what you need to watch. his foundation(s). And if I'm trump, he has enough on the outgoing administration that he can get a FISA on every single one of them. I'd watch them all for the entire 8 years. if Obama violates the Logan act even once, id throw the book at him and strip him of all his wealth as the money will flow into his foundation from foreign sources associated/tied with foreign heads of state. same for the clintons. throw the book at them.

But at least the cat. is. out. of. the. bag.
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#164 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:54 pm

Read on Twitter
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#165 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:55 pm

this one makes me want to cry. thats how real it is.

Read on Twitter
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#166 » by stilldropin20 » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:01 pm

Read on Twitter
like i said, its a full rebuild.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#167 » by Jamaaliver » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:25 pm

Interesting read from the 'failing NYT' on revamped Health Care in a couple of smaller nations on the other side of the globe:

The Leap to Single-Payer: What Taiwan Can Teach

How one nation transformed a health care system. Can America do big things anymore?


Taiwan is proof that a country can make a swift and huge change to its health care system, even in the modern day.

The United States, in part because of political stalemate, in part because it has been hemmed in by its history, has been unable to be as bold.

Singapore, which we wrote about in October, tinkers with its health care system all the time. Taiwan, in contrast, revamped its top to bottom.

...a task force [was implemented] to design a new system. The task force studied countries like the United States, Britain, France, Canada, Germany and Japan.

In the end, Taiwan chose to adopt a single-payer system like that found in Medicare or in Canada, not a government-run system like Britain’s.

The health insurance Taiwan provides is comprehensive. Both inpatient and outpatient care are covered, as well as dental care, over-the-counter drugs and traditional Chinese medicine. It’s much more thorough than Medicare is in the United States.

Access is also quite impressive. Patients can choose from pretty much any provider or therapy. Wait times are short, and patients can go straight to specialty care without a referral.

Premiums are paid for by the government, employers and employees. The share paid by each depends on income, with the poor paying a much smaller percentage than the wealthy.

Regardless of which health system you might prefer, Taiwan’s ambition showed what’s possible. It took five years of planning and two years of legislative efforts to accomplish its transformation. That’s less time than the United States has spent fighting over the Affordable Care Act, with much less to show for it.
NY Times
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#168 » by Wizardspride » Thu Dec 28, 2017 2:31 pm

Read on Twitter

President Donald Trump referred to African countries, Haiti and El Salvador as "shithole" nations during a meeting Thursday and asked why the U.S. can't have more immigrants from Norway.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#169 » by cammac » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:00 pm

In a State where the Republicans have done everything in there power to eliminate freedom to the ballot box. The "Bible Bigot & Sexual Predator" I'm the Judge Roy Moore filed a brief on voter fraud! :crazy: :crazy:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/28/1728122/-Alabama-Sen-Moore-Wants-New-Election-Because-Voter-Fraud-Files-Lawsuit
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#170 » by dckingsfan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:09 pm

stilldropin20 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Let's face it... Trump is rolling back Obama. Next president will roll back Trump.

Nothing to see here until one of the parties truly becomes the adult in the room.

Nikki Haley will likely be the next president. Unless Trump pushes hard for Ivanka. You will know its Ivanka if she gets a more important job in 2019 like chief of staff then possibly UN ambassador in 2021. and sec of state in 2022. Paving the way for a run in 2024. I'd put it at 99% likely that Ivanka is DJT's choice to ensure his legacy. but he'd be happy with Haley. and Ivanka might not want the job. But either would be a great first female US president.

Not. Have you ever heard Haley speak? And it won't be Ivanka either - she will end up running as hard as she can away from the job as she can - plus, isn't she going to lose on the birther rumors?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#171 » by Zonkerbl » Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:42 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Guys don’t feed the troll you know better. Let the trumpites think they’ve won already and can go back to snorting meth while we take the country back in 2018 and throw trump and all his flunkies in jail where they belong. 2018 elections are going to be a bloodbath.


I love it. You are so out of touch with reality its truly entertaining. The best part is you're on a big damn island with a lot of people who really believe this. Fact is, we are at the beginning of what will be a great decade for this country and its citizens... And we'll take you kicking and screaming along the way. MAGA


Oh yeah dude you’re *totally* right. Congratulations, EVERYBODY agrees with you and loves Trump. You win!
I've been taught all my life to value service to the weak and powerless.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#172 » by cammac » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:13 pm

Is a liberal message getting through in "Red States" and are the Republican politicians not just listening? No state represents a Republican bastion more than Utah 60% of the population is Mormon and the two Senators couldn't be more right wing in Hatch and Lee. This is a State because of the predominance of the "Church of the Latter Day Saints" has always preached self reliance. But in a recent poll on expansion of Medicaid the consensus was overwhelming in favor of expansion.
Fifty-nine percent of Utahns support a full Medicaid expansion, according to a poll conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for UtahPolicy.com.

Thirty-six percent oppose expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while 4 percent don't know.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/366673-6-in-10-utahns-support-medicaid-expansion-effort

The only seat that the Democrats can hope to get is Utah#4 which is held by GOP Mia Love a Haitian born GOP Congresswoman and the only Afro American Congresswoman in the GOP caucus. This is a seat that has elected Democrats and while still light pink is a possible pick-up.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#173 » by cammac » Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:56 pm

Zonkerbl wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Zonkerbl wrote:Guys don’t feed the troll you know better. Let the trumpites think they’ve won already and can go back to snorting meth while we take the country back in 2018 and throw trump and all his flunkies in jail where they belong. 2018 elections are going to be a bloodbath.


I love it. You are so out of touch with reality its truly entertaining. The best part is you're on a big damn island with a lot of people who really believe this. Fact is, we are at the beginning of what will be a great decade for this country and its citizens... And we'll take you kicking and screaming along the way. MAGA


Oh yeah dude you’re *totally* right. Congratulations, EVERYBODY agrees with you and loves Trump. You win!


It would be nice to produce some antidotes to prove your points PC?
Trump ran on getting illegal immigrants out of the USA how did he do?
Reality Obama deported 25% more illegals in his last year than Trump did in his 1st that was prorated to 11 months each.
Trump is the"Deporter in Chief" WRONG
China is a currency manipulator and I will correct that! Again under Trump the deficit in trade increased.
US Trade Deficit at 9-Month High:
The US trade deficit widened to USD 48.7 billion in October of 2017 from an upwardly revised USD 44.9 billion gap in September and above market expectations of USD 47.5 billion. It is the highest trade shortfall in nine months as imports jumped 1.6 percent to a record high boosted by purchases of crude oil, food, cellphones and other goods while exports were flat.

WRONG

Can you give me one thing that Trump has done that gets a positive reaction from the American people?
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#174 » by dckingsfan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:34 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#175 » by cammac » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:01 pm

dckingsfan wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.


I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#176 » by dckingsfan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:13 pm

cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.


I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.

Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#177 » by cammac » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:57 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.


I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.

Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.


I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#178 » by dckingsfan » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:01 pm

cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
cammac wrote:
I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.

Yep, but it is still messy until the Ds have their message... If I was betting - I would say the house would fall and the senate will be tied or stay R.


I think I was the only one to call Alabama for Jones. If the Ezra Klein story is correct the sexual misconduct may have been a + for Moore in the latter stages of the election but before Jones had a solid chance without it.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/26/16810116/doug-jones-alabama-polls-roy-moore
So I can't see Mississippi not being in play likely 2 Senate races in 2018 with possible Bannon Alt. Right candidates.Mississippi 40% Afro American another 2 or 3% minorities with a high % turnout for minorities and 6 or 7% white vote it goes blue.
Also in Arizona with McCain likely a Senate race in 2018/19 for that seat because of health.

I think it is way to hard to predict the senate, especially the Democrats in Republican territory of Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri - I could see some of those going to the Rs.
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#179 » by dobrojim » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:46 pm

dckingsfan wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.


The thing about this is that all it will really take is for one house to flip and then control of the
various oversight and investigating committees, including decisions on issuing subpoenas, will
convey to the party in power. Rick Wilson has commented on the atrocious degree of tribalism
affecting CongressCritters responsible for oversight (ha!). Many in the GOP perhaps aren't even sure
what they've been concealing, or complicit in concealing. One thing I would predict that is almost
guaranteed to happen if a house flips is that DJT's taxes will become public. It'll be interesting
and no doubt entertaining to see how Biff will try to spin what's in there.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
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Re: Political Roundtable Part XVII 

Post#180 » by dobrojim » Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:52 pm

cammac wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:It will be interesting to see what happens in '18 and '20. '18 is a traditional year for the incumbent party to get blasted. I see no evidence that this won't happen.

The senate could cling to a narrow majority for the Rs or it could shift to the Ds by the slimmest of margins. Either way, it will make it exceedingly difficult to get legislation through the senate.

The house could actually flip. Heading into the 2010 Obama's job approval rating was below 45 percent, D's lost a bunch of races and the house flipped. So, I could easily see this happening in '18 (in a historical context).

But it is messy. The Ds don't yet have an identified leader and running against Pelosi is easy. And although the DNC is starting to get their act together they are still cleaning up from their (essentially) bankruptcy. So, they might not be able to get everyone on message.


I agree with you on most of your points in that I believe the Democrats need to have an agenda. I dislike any party that runs on being against things rather than having solutions and policies.The Republicans were the party of no the Democrats need to be the party yes.
They have the ability to present a potpourri of positive messages to highlight the doom and gloom Trump America.
#1 New Trickle Up Tax policy
#2 1st stages of fixing ACA
#3 Rejoin the Paris Accords
#4 Work to fix the problems within NAFTA if they did Canada would be a willing partner
#5 Push for jobs that reflect the 21st century not the 19th

Yes Pelosi is a drag used by Republicans at the polls.
But the Democrats have McConnell and Ryan who are much more unpopular than Pelosi.
Plus Donald will be a drag in both 2018 and 20.

I'm more optimistic about the Senate than you are I think Doug Jones has created a halo effect. With proper organization some states that should be Republicans can fall Mississippi , Cruz in Texas you will have a better handle on that and Tennessee. Think both Arizona and Nevada are close to sure things for the Democrats.


In principle, I agree. (But) If we look at recent history ie 2010, I'm not sure that's true.
Even the wealth of the 0.1% spent on a relentless stream of negative ads seems unlikely
to be able to overcome facts on the ground. Pollsters say gerrymandering has provided
the GOP with a 4% cushion in garnering seats above votes. Right now, generic polls put
their deficit considerably higher than 4%. So one or both houses could flip. That said,
we're an eternity from election day 2018.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

When you are accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression

Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities

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