nate33 wrote:Illmatic12 wrote:The Stepien writers have done an analysis on hundreds of NBA draft prospects , and one of the main correlations between NCAA production and NBA success is rebounding. A pro player vs inferior competition will generally stand out in terms of their anticipation, reflexes , physical toughness and rebounding is one way to filter these players to the top.
Players like Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard, Robert Covington were examples of outlier rebounders for their size in NCAA competition.. not necessarily because they were the biggest players , but because they were reading the game on a higher level and had a certain instinct or “nose” for the ball that can’t be taught.
They ran a similarity comparison and on average the players who comp’d to Reddish in terms of Reb/blk production .. were 6’4 guards.
Cam’s low rebounding numbers for his size are indicative of a general inactivity and sluggishness/poor anticipation that may doom him at the professional level. Deandre Hunter is another player who has an unusually low production level in “activity” stats , which gives me some pause on his upside as well.
Another relevant Stepien article I read discussed the situations when a single team had 3 top 25 prospects on their team (like Duke with Zion, Barrett and Reddish, or Kentucky with Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Terrence Jones or Florida with Noah, Horford and Brewer). In almost all cases the 3rd "star" is highly overrated and ends up disappointing in the NBA.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/03/04/draft-notes-non-zion-duke-freshmen/
With all that being said, they ranked him at 12. And I highly recommend you read his section on Cam possibly going to Atlanta and how he fits.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/05/16/draft-notes-quick-thoughts-question-answer-dropbox/
That being said, let’s talk about Cam Reddish on Atlanta. Reddish is clearly one of the most divisive prospects in the class. A prospect with excellent height and length, nice fluidity, decent speed, poor burst and explosion, above average but not elite defensive potential and highly diverse shooting arsenal that one might overlook because of distance percentages (silly) and his on the court red flags (how he lacks influence, his horrid 2-point percentage and percentage at the rim, and also lack of decision-making and awareness).
On Atlanta, if he ends up there, Reddish is going to have a very good opportunity to be excellent. It’s not because he’s McGrady. (He’s not.) It’s not because he’s the second coming of Klay Thompson. (He probably wouldn’t be so efficient with such attention given to him.) It’s because Trae Young, like Stephen Curry, can space the floor vertically in the way few players can, while being an even more dynamic passer.
Shooters in Atlanta’s offense are already getting wide open looks from 3 like this one. More than a few of those are going to go to Reddish, either on the direct pass or on ball movement against a rotating defense.
Then there’s the problem for opponents of how to guard both Huerter and Reddish. I’m not sure any team has ever had two players so tall who were so comfortable off of such an array of shooting actions. One of those two is likely to draw a weaker defender in regards to track-and-follow and off-ball switches on screens, and accounting for these two is going to be a nightmare.
Yes, I am not convinced about Reddish’s in-the-run-of-play decision-making, or his ability to score contested shots at the rim. That would usually be a big deal, but Atlanta has a player who is greatly going to simplify decision-making for Reddish. First decision: shoot the ball or not. Possible second decision: swing the ball to a wide open man or pump fake and then shoot the ball off of one dribble. That’s basically it.
If you believe in Cam Reddish’s stroke, and if Reddish gets his eye focus right (something that should be easily fixable with enough practice, though it’s possible he might need contacts, which is also easily fixable) there are a lot of reasons to believe in Reddish’s shot.
There’s the 89 makes from 3 as a freshman and the 267 total attempts. There’s the ten attempts per 40 minutes from 3. And there’s the eye test, where the shot looks fluid and bankable even when it misses.
There are situations and contexts that can mitigate a lot of the concerns we might have about a prospect’s future. Atlanta’s offense is one of them, with three players already that will draw loads of defensive attention (Trae, Collins, Huerter) and with Trae’s ability to see the floor and find whoever has the best opportunity.
We forget now but Otto Porter Jr. shot 23 percent from 3 as a freshman. Kyle Kuzma shot 30 percent for his college career and 63 percent from the free throw line. We can learn a lot from numbers, but it’s clear we can also pay too much attention to run-of-play percentages as a definitive indicator of future success. There are other reasons to bet on Reddish’s shot, especially on a team in which he’ll begin as the 4th player in the pecking order, and more importantly he’ll get tons of open looks just handed to him.
If the Hawks are Warriors East, then there are a lot of reasons to equate a possible Reddish selection back to the Warriors pick of Harrison Barnes.
The attention that Beal would draw, would do the same exact thing for Reddish on the Wiz that Trae Young would do for Cam on the Hawks.
Give me a pass, please. & if I'm snarky again, please call me on it immediately.