Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

[closg00]

Nate Silver is very charitable in his outlook for the Wizards, 32-50 11th seed
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-projections-for-the-2019-20-nba-season/

[nate33]

Nate Silver is very charitable in his outlook for the Wizards, 32-50 11th seed
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-way-too-early-projections-for-the-2019-20-nba-season/

That's a pretty interesting analysis.

Apparently, Silver thanks that Bedrans is a substantially above average player. He also thinks Bryant will be slightly better than average. He doesn't see much help coming from the rest of the roster though, other than Beal, of course. Just about everyone else on the team, including Troy Brown and Rui Hachimura, will be substantially below average.

He has the Wizards ahead of the Hawks because apparently he doesn't have much faith in the Hawks' defense. Nobody on that roster grades out as a positive player except Collins. Even Trae Young's positive offensive impact is outweighed by his negative defense.

In general, Silver doesn't have much faith that many rookies will be helping their teams. Even guys like Morant and Barrett grade out as substantially negative.

[payitforward]

There's a lot of ways to look at nonsense like this. For example, last year 538 gave the Raptors the highest chance of anyone in the East to be in the Finals -- & they were in the finals! Wow.... They gave the Raptors the 2d highest shot to win the title, and they did win the title! Wow....

Of course, they made the Warriors 4 times as likely as Toronto to win the title. Hmmm.... They gave the Wizards a 92% chance to make the playoffs. Hmmm....

Here's a good one: 538 had the Wizards winning 33% more games than the Nets last season; in fact, the Nets won almost 33% more games than the Wizards!

I can't begin to describe how far off that is for a statistical prediction. It's beyond belief. Just on its own that prediction suffices to disqualify every one of their efforts in basketball & to make it clear that their entire basketball methodology is a useless bunch of stuff that adds no value whatsoever.

Imagine that these guys pitch you to sell their services. They do a presentation in your conference room with numbers dancing through hoops. Then you ask them, "how did you do last year with the Wizards & the Nets?"

"We really messed up on those two," they reply; "no question about it! But, look at how well we did with the Toronto Raptors."

Right then & there I throw them out of the building. Any idiot can predict that, after posting the best record in the East in 2017-18 & then adding Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors were very likely to do extremely well in 2018-19. No methodology of any kind is required. No research is required. Ditto for predicting that the Warriors were the most likely team to top the West & win the title. Easy. I did it with my eyes closed.

Not only that, but last year any idiot also could have predicted that the Knicks, Bulls, Phoenix, Memphis, the Mavs & the Cavs were all going to be bad. Again, no research, no special sauce, no Phds... none of that required. Ditto for predicting that the best teams would do well.

What you need all that apparatus for is to predict that the Kings would have the worst record in the league. That the Clippers would have as bad a record as the Grizzlies. That the Lakers would win 48 games & make the playoffs. That we would win 48 games. That Minny would win 20% more games than SA. Etc. etc. etc. I could list at least another dozen examples of futility. More, really.

I'm not talking about places where they are a little off or get the order of records somewhat wrong (i.e. in re: Philly, Boston, etc.). That's to be expected. I'm talking overall, jaw-dropping, totally futile ridiculousness. I.e. most of what would have been outside the ability of an average fan to predict without thinking, they get completely wrong.

Thanks, guys -- don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out....

[payitforward]

I just want to make that last point a little clearer:

What an average fan can predict without thinking, 538 can also predict using all their apparatus.

What an average fan cannot predict without thinking -- meaning their results would be random, sometimes right sometimes wrong -- 538 manages to get almost completely wrong using their apparatus.

What this means is that an average fan, using lets say pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey as his "methodology," would be likely to provide a better, more accurate set of predictions for an NBA season than is 538. At least if we use the 2018-19 season as the sample of their work.

To verify this, one would use a "wisdom of the crowd" methodology. I.e. ask lets say 1000 average fans to each provide season results, & then simply compute the overall result.

Without any doubt that result would be way more accurate than what 538 came up by using their CARMELO methodology (which from the way they describe it seems completely idiotic, btw).

[payitforward]

After you decide that, as usual, I'm full of it (which no doubt I am), but before you light into me (which you are free to do anyway), you might want to click on this spoiler &...

Spoiler:

...see where 538's CARMELO model put Rui Hachimura among prospects in the 2019 NBA draft: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-top-50-nba-draft-prospects-according-to-our-carmelo-projections/ Changing your mind, are you?

Well... are you?

[Rafael122]

If the same report was done in July of last year, then 92% chance of making the playoffs sounded about right. On paper the Wizards were a playoff team. I don't think they have a magic 8 ball that will tell them Wall will tear his Achilles, Porter and Oubre would be traded and everything would go to ****.

[payitforward]

If the same report was done in July of last year, then 92% chance of making the playoffs sounded about right. On paper the Wizards were a playoff team. I don't think they have a magic 8 ball that will tell them Wall will tear his Achilles, Porter and Oubre would be traded and everything would go to ****.

Sorry, no, that's not what happened. What was our record when John went down? The record of the team they predicted would win 48 games with a 92% virtual certainty of making the playoffs.

At which time, btw, both Otto & Kelly were still on the team. Not that Kelly Oubre being there or not being there made the slightest difference, since he wasn't & hadn't ever been a good player.

Not to mention that we were only one example of their bad predictions for everything outside of what an average fan could have told you was going to happen.

[Rafael122]

If the same report was done in July of last year, then 92% chance of making the playoffs sounded about right. On paper the Wizards were a playoff team. I don't think they have a magic 8 ball that will tell them Wall will tear his Achilles, Porter and Oubre would be traded and everything would go to ****.

Sorry, no, that's not what happened. What was our record when John went down? The record of the team they predicted would win 48 games with a 92% virtual certainty of making the playoffs.

At which time, btw, both Otto & Kelly were still on the team. Not that Kelly Oubre being there or not being there made the slightest difference, since he wasn't & hadn't ever been a good player.

Not to mention that we were only one example of their bad predictions for everything outside of what an average fan could have told you was going to happen.

Fam, if they wrote the 2018-2019 forecast in July 2018, and in JULY 2018 they predicted however many wins and a 92% chance of making he playoffs, then I would have believed it. They would have had no way of knowing 6 months prior that Wall would tear his achilles and Porter/Oubre would be traded, that's my point. This isn't hard man.

Actually I just checked, they consistently update this based on injuries and other algorithms.

On October 15, they had the Wizards going 48-34 and a 92% chance of making the playoffs. Wall was ruled out for the year on 12/29 at which point their projected record was 35-47 and a 35% chance at making the playoffs.

Porter was traded on 2/6, win totals went down 1 but playoff chances went down to 21%. There's no point in arguing about how wrong this is if its being updated weekly.

[Dat2U]

There's a lot of ways to look at nonsense like this. For example, last year 538 gave the Raptors the highest chance of anyone in the East to be in the Finals -- & they were in the finals! Wow.... They gave the Raptors the 2d highest shot to win the title, and they did win the title! Wow....

Of course, they made the Warriors 4 times as likely as Toronto to win the title. Hmmm.... They gave the Wizards a 92% chance to make the playoffs. Hmmm....

Here's a good one: 538 had the Wizards winning 33% more games than the Nets last season; in fact, the Nets won almost 33% more games than the Wizards!

I can't begin to describe how far off that is for a statistical prediction. It's beyond belief. Just on its own that prediction suffices to disqualify every one of their efforts in basketball & to make it clear that their entire basketball methodology is a useless bunch of stuff that adds no value whatsoever.

Imagine that these guys pitch you to sell their services. They do a presentation in your conference room with numbers dancing through hoops. Then you ask them, "how did you do last year with the Wizards & the Nets?"

"We really messed up on those two," they reply; "no question about it! But, look at how well we did with the Toronto Raptors."

Right then & there I throw them out of the building. Any idiot can predict that, after posting the best record in the East in 2017-18 & then adding Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors were very likely to do extremely well in 2018-19. No methodology of any kind is required. No research is required. Ditto for predicting that the Warriors were the most likely team to top the West & win the title. Easy. I did it with my eyes closed.

Not only that, but last year any idiot also could have predicted that the Knicks, Bulls, Phoenix, Memphis, the Mavs & the Cavs were all going to be bad. Again, no research, no special sauce, no Phds... none of that required. Ditto for predicting that the best teams would do well.

What you need all that apparatus for is to predict that the Kings would have the worst record in the league. That the Clippers would have as bad a record as the Grizzlies. That the Lakers would win 48 games & make the playoffs. That we would win 48 games. That Minny would win 20% more games than SA. Etc. etc. etc. I could list at least another dozen examples of futility. More, really.

I'm not talking about places where they are a little off or get the order of records somewhat wrong (i.e. in re: Philly, Boston, etc.). That's to be expected. I'm talking overall, jaw-dropping, totally futile ridiculousness. I.e. most of what would have been outside the ability of an average fan to predict without thinking, they get completely wrong.

Thanks, guys -- don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out....

But didnt you predict the Wizards would win 47 games last year and just like the other 95% of us, you weren't even close?

So maybe this isn't a strength of yours either?

[DCZards]

If the same report was done in July of last year, then 92% chance of making the playoffs sounded about right. On paper the Wizards were a playoff team. I don't think they have a magic 8 ball that will tell them Wall will tear his Achilles, Porter and Oubre would be traded and everything would go to ****.

Agree. You can't blame 538 for getting it wrong in July 2018 when they had no way of knowing that Wall would only play 32 games, Howard would play just 9 games and Porter would be traded in February. Many of us, myself included, considered the Zards a playoff team last July.

[payitforward]

There's a lot of ways to look at nonsense like this. For example, last year 538 gave the Raptors the highest chance of anyone in the East to be in the Finals -- & they were in the finals! Wow.... They gave the Raptors the 2d highest shot to win the title, and they did win the title! Wow....

Of course, they made the Warriors 4 times as likely as Toronto to win the title. Hmmm.... They gave the Wizards a 92% chance to make the playoffs. Hmmm....

Here's a good one: 538 had the Wizards winning 33% more games than the Nets last season; in fact, the Nets won almost 33% more games than the Wizards!

I can't begin to describe how far off that is for a statistical prediction. It's beyond belief. Just on its own that prediction suffices to disqualify every one of their efforts in basketball & to make it clear that their entire basketball methodology is a useless bunch of stuff that adds no value whatsoever.

Imagine that these guys pitch you to sell their services. They do a presentation in your conference room with numbers dancing through hoops. Then you ask them, "how did you do last year with the Wizards & the Nets?"

"We really messed up on those two," they reply; "no question about it! But, look at how well we did with the Toronto Raptors."

Right then & there I throw them out of the building. Any idiot can predict that, after posting the best record in the East in 2017-18 & then adding Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors were very likely to do extremely well in 2018-19. No methodology of any kind is required. No research is required. Ditto for predicting that the Warriors were the most likely team to top the West & win the title. Easy. I did it with my eyes closed.

Not only that, but last year any idiot also could have predicted that the Knicks, Bulls, Phoenix, Memphis, the Mavs & the Cavs were all going to be bad. Again, no research, no special sauce, no Phds... none of that required. Ditto for predicting that the best teams would do well.

What you need all that apparatus for is to predict that the Kings would have the worst record in the league. That the Clippers would have as bad a record as the Grizzlies. That the Lakers would win 48 games & make the playoffs. That we would win 48 games. That Minny would win 20% more games than SA. Etc. etc. etc. I could list at least another dozen examples of futility. More, really.

I'm not talking about places where they are a little off or get the order of records somewhat wrong (i.e. in re: Philly, Boston, etc.). That's to be expected. I'm talking overall, jaw-dropping, totally futile ridiculousness. I.e. most of what would have been outside the ability of an average fan to predict without thinking, they get completely wrong.

Thanks, guys -- don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out....

But didnt you predict the Wizards would win 47 games last year and just like the other 95% of us, you weren't even close?

So maybe this isn't a strength of yours either?

Absolutely! I drank the Koolaid for the first time -- & I liked the way it tasted! But, dat, I'm a fan. I'm not walking around claiming I have some super-special intellectual property, a method all in caps with a trademark sign! Above all, I'm not in business saying I have the ability to use all this good stuff to provide really valuable predictions.

[payitforward]

If the same report was done in July of last year, then 92% chance of making the playoffs sounded about right. On paper the Wizards were a playoff team. I don't think they have a magic 8 ball that will tell them Wall will tear his Achilles, Porter and Oubre would be traded and everything would go to ****.

Sorry, no, that's not what happened. What was our record when John went down? The record of the team they predicted would win 48 games with a 92% virtual certainty of making the playoffs.

At which time, btw, both Otto & Kelly were still on the team. Not that Kelly Oubre being there or not being there made the slightest difference, since he wasn't & hadn't ever been a good player.

Not to mention that we were only one example of their bad predictions for everything outside of what an average fan could have told you was going to happen.

Fam, if they wrote the 2018-2019 forecast in July 2018, and in JULY 2018 they predicted however many wins and a 92% chance of making he playoffs, then I would have believed it. They would have had no way of knowing 6 months prior that Wall would tear his achilles and Porter/Oubre would be traded, that's my point. This isn't hard man. ...

You're right. It isn't hard at all. Nor does it matter what you would have believed, or what I would have believed. Nor does John Wall going down bear on this at all. Here's why it doesn't:

John Wall's last game was on 12/22. He led the team in points, rebounds & assists that night. At the end of the game, our record was 13-22, which translates into a 30-52 record. In other words, our record improved after John went down. It didn't get worse, it got better. Hence, his going down had zip to do with how bad 538's ability to predict is. Got it?

Plus, what's your point? Take out the bunnies from 538's predictions for the season ("Toronto will be good; the Warriors will be good"), & they are terrible on all the rest of it -- not just us. This isn't about the Wizards. It's about the uselessness of 538's algorithms assessing player value.

Or maybe you agree with their considered opinion that Rui Hachimura was the 36th best prospect in the 2019 NBA draft? Do you?

That assessment was produced using the same method they use to come up with season predictions.

[Ruzious]

There's a lot of ways to look at nonsense like this. For example, last year 538 gave the Raptors the highest chance of anyone in the East to be in the Finals -- & they were in the finals! Wow.... They gave the Raptors the 2d highest shot to win the title, and they did win the title! Wow....

Of course, they made the Warriors 4 times as likely as Toronto to win the title. Hmmm.... They gave the Wizards a 92% chance to make the playoffs. Hmmm....

Here's a good one: 538 had the Wizards winning 33% more games than the Nets last season; in fact, the Nets won almost 33% more games than the Wizards!

I can't begin to describe how far off that is for a statistical prediction. It's beyond belief. Just on its own that prediction suffices to disqualify every one of their efforts in basketball & to make it clear that their entire basketball methodology is a useless bunch of stuff that adds no value whatsoever.

Imagine that these guys pitch you to sell their services. They do a presentation in your conference room with numbers dancing through hoops. Then you ask them, "how did you do last year with the Wizards & the Nets?"

"We really messed up on those two," they reply; "no question about it! But, look at how well we did with the Toronto Raptors."

Right then & there I throw them out of the building. Any idiot can predict that, after posting the best record in the East in 2017-18 & then adding Kawhi Leonard, the Toronto Raptors were very likely to do extremely well in 2018-19. No methodology of any kind is required. No research is required. Ditto for predicting that the Warriors were the most likely team to top the West & win the title. Easy. I did it with my eyes closed.

Not only that, but last year any idiot also could have predicted that the Knicks, Bulls, Phoenix, Memphis, the Mavs & the Cavs were all going to be bad. Again, no research, no special sauce, no Phds... none of that required. Ditto for predicting that the best teams would do well.

What you need all that apparatus for is to predict that the Kings would have the worst record in the league. That the Clippers would have as bad a record as the Grizzlies. That the Lakers would win 48 games & make the playoffs. That we would win 48 games. That Minny would win 20% more games than SA. Etc. etc. etc. I could list at least another dozen examples of futility. More, really.

I'm not talking about places where they are a little off or get the order of records somewhat wrong (i.e. in re: Philly, Boston, etc.). That's to be expected. I'm talking overall, jaw-dropping, totally futile ridiculousness. I.e. most of what would have been outside the ability of an average fan to predict without thinking, they get completely wrong.

Thanks, guys -- don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out....

But didnt you predict the Wizards would win 47 games last year and just like the other 95% of us, you weren't even close?

So maybe this isn't a strength of yours either?

Absolutely! I drank the Koolaid for the first time -- & I liked the way it tasted! But, dat, I'm a fan. I'm not walking around claiming I have some super-special intellectual property, a method all in caps with a trademark sign! Above all, I'm not in business saying I have the ability to use all this good stuff to provide really valuable predictions.

Well, maybe if you did, you coulda woulda shoulda been the GM for the GS Warriors.

[DCZards]

John Wall's last game was on 12/22. He led the team in points, rebounds & assists that night. At the end of the game, our record was 13-22, which translates into a 30-52 record. In other words, our record improved after John went down. It didn't get worse, it got better. Hence, his going down had zip to do with how bad 538's ability to predict is. Got it?

We know now that John was not healthy from the start of last season. He was playing with painful bone spurs. 538 had no way of knowing that when they made their prediction.

No telling what the Zards record would have been if John had been healthy the entire season. It may have been better than it ended up…or it may have been worse.

I have a tendency to agree with 538 that there was a very good chance that the Zards make the playoffs with a healthy WallStar…given that imo they are a much better team with him than without him.

[Dat2U]

John Wall's last game was on 12/22. He led the team in points, rebounds & assists that night. At the end of the game, our record was 13-22, which translates into a 30-52 record. In other words, our record improved after John went down. It didn't get worse, it got better. Hence, his going down had zip to do with how bad 538's ability to predict is. Got it?

We know now that John was not healthy from the start of last season. He was playing with painful bone spurs. 538 had no way of knowing that when they made their prediction.

No telling what the Zards record would have been if John had been healthy the entire season. It may have been better than it ended up…or it may have been worse.

I have a tendency to agree with 538 that there was a very good chance that the Zards make the playoffs with a healthy WallStar…given that imo they are a much better team with him than without him.

2017-18 should have given us some insight into what was coming. Because he came in out of shape in 17-18 (right after he signed the extension) and followed that up in 18-19 by adding weight to painful bone spurs. We can question why he did that or the logic behind it but he was very slow and heavy when the season first started.

Then you get to the off-court stuff. The stuff that leaked out about agendas and infighting. The Wall vs Otto beef. Wall vs Beal. Wall vs. Brooks. Oubre vs. Brooks, etc.

My point is... this is the excuse I see on twitter. "If only Wall was healthy" and to me it's BS. I think honestly it's more like "if Wall cared enough professionally to actually be in shape and let his play do the talking". Hopefully with Wall keeping the weight off now, this is a sign of him taking his profession more seriously.

[payitforward]

John Wall's last game was on 12/22. He led the team in points, rebounds & assists that night. At the end of the game, our record was 13-22, which translates into a 30-52 record. In other words, our record improved after John went down. It didn't get worse, it got better. Hence, his going down had zip to do with how bad 538's ability to predict is. Got it?

We know now that John was not healthy from the start of last season. He was playing with painful bone spurs. 538 had no way of knowing that when they made their prediction.

No telling what the Zards record would have been if John had been healthy the entire season. It may have been better than it ended up…or it may have been worse.

I have a tendency to agree with 538 that there was a very good chance that the Zards make the playoffs with a healthy WallStar…given that imo they are a much better team with him than without him.

Zards... I wasn't writing about the Wizards; I was writing about 538. It's not a question of whether they were right about the Wizards.

They are using a proprietary set of statistical models to predict the NBA. They weren't "wrong about the Wizards." They were wrong about essentially everything -- except the simplest bunny predictions that required no proprietary models.

Anything more than that their heap-deep intellectual property got wrong. Up and down the line. That's what my point was.

As to John Wall, if you take the guy at his best & add him to any NBA team, that team will be better. They will win more games. Nor is this because of something special about him as an individual. John Wall at the top of his game is an outstanding NBA player. Add any outstanding NBA player, not just John, to any team, not just the Wizards, & that team improves. How could that not be so?

[DCZards]

John Wall's last game was on 12/22. He led the team in points, rebounds & assists that night. At the end of the game, our record was 13-22, which translates into a 30-52 record. In other words, our record improved after John went down. It didn't get worse, it got better. Hence, his going down had zip to do with how bad 538's ability to predict is. Got it?

We know now that John was not healthy from the start of last season. He was playing with painful bone spurs. 538 had no way of knowing that when they made their prediction.

No telling what the Zards record would have been if John had been healthy the entire season. It may have been better than it ended up…or it may have been worse.

I have a tendency to agree with 538 that there was a very good chance that the Zards make the playoffs with a healthy WallStar…given that imo they are a much better team with him than without him.

2017-18 should have given us some insight into what was coming. Because he came in out of shape in 17-18 (right after he signed the extension) and followed that up in 18-19 by adding weight to painful bone spurs. We can question why he did that or the logic behind it but he was very slow and heavy when the season first started.

Then you get to the off-court stuff. The stuff that leaked out about agendas and infighting. The Wall vs Otto beef. Wall vs Beal. Wall vs. Brooks. Oubre vs. Brooks, etc.

My point is... this is the excuse I see on twitter. "If only Wall was healthy" and to me it's BS. I think honestly it's more like "if Wall cared enough professionally to actually be in shape and let his play do the talking". Hopefully with Wall keeping the weight off now, this is a sign of him taking his profession more seriously.

I agree with this, especially your last paragraph. I also know it's coming from someone who has been one of Wall's most consistent supporters and advocates in the past.

Wall does indeed deserve the lion's share of the blame for his inconsistent play the last couple of years. Being out of shape (although I question whether that was really true), hanging out too hard on the DC club scene, and beefing with teammates and coaches is not a good look. It's also detrimental to both your team and your career.

Let's hope JW has learned that lesson.

[payitforward]

Well, for everyone not just players, at some point you look in the mirror & say "I only have so much time to do this (whatever it is), & if I want to make my mark I'm going to have to get serious about everything that's in my way." Just have to hope you do it when there's still a way to maximize yourself.

[The Consiglieri]

Well I hope you are not asking how Lavine & Dunn for Beal would fly. If you want a good player, you have to give good players. Unfortunately, at present you don't have many of those. The best guys you have you are certainly not going to want to trade (viz. Markkanen).

Hey, I'm from Chicago! I want the Bulls to be a good team. But, you'll have to do it through the draft. Start by firing your FO!!

Well that was the base package with possibly a 1st thrown in. I mean last year de didtake on OP's salary in that trade. I think at the time Wash was just looking at salary relief. LaVine is an All Star and should improve on help and onball D this year. On O he is just sweet and I expect his 3 pt% & TS% to improve. Dunn with a change of scenery could blossom into a decent PG.

The Otto trade was basically a horrific corrective to total mismanagement by a completely incompetent GM. It wasn't a good trade, it was a horror show patchover for a litany of mistakes. IF we trade Beal (and I'm in the definitely we'll trade him group) we'll be looking for something a touch below (unless we're crazy lucky) what OKC got for George, we will want to add loads of pieces to reboot the team from scratch. Adding the options you mention would do literally nothing to help in that regard. Trading Beal means rock bottom for us, and if we're digging that far down, we'll want to start the slab with legit pieces like OKC did after it blew up its team this summer, or what New Orleans did when they traded Davis. Barring a miracle, we won't get quite that kind of package, and maybe not close to it, but that's what the fan base and the F.O. would be demanding. Ask for the moon, settle for the sky. The package you mention would be a swindling, and while those sometimes happen w/incompetent F.O.'s like ours has been, you already got one of those deals for Porter in that salary dump. I do not expect something of that sort to happen again.

[The Consiglieri]

The reality is that this is only a basketball forum. If the Wiz trade Beal we won't have any power over what they get in return. But I'm not going to let that fact dictate what I think a good return for him is. Beal has the power to turn a one star team into a legit contender and he has two years left on his deal. Ergo, I expect to be compensated in the same ball park as a New Orleans. That's where trade talks start with me. I don't care to get rid of Wall's contract. We won't be competing for the next few years regardless. I want assets to build the team going forward.

I like your points here. One of the things the infuriates me while listening to those Simmons podcasts breaking down the offseason is the always idiotic ideas about moving Beal (he seems to premise every offer around dumping Wall's contract, which makes zero sense, if it's 80% insured, than the owners complaints about the deal are already taken care of, at that point, the question is whats better for a rock bottom franchise, to get rid of an albatross contract, or to acquire as many picks/prospects as possible to build around. The correct answer to that question is preposterously easy and yet he keeps throwing in Wall Dump ideas?!?!). I generally agree w/the idea that he'll be moved. Yes it's possible he'll be okay w/wasting several more years of his prime here, but I tend to doubt it. We are about to go on an 82 game rock bottom endeavor. That may leave a sour taste in his mouth if not something worse. Maybe he'll want to stay, we'll get some signal a week or so from now, but at a base level I think it's a fools errand to operate as if his word in an interview is all we need to put the kibosh on trade talks and ideas.

The only question to me is when we can get max value, now, the trade deadline, or during the start or end of next year's terrible free agent crop where he'd be easily the marquee piece a team trying to win it all could acquire. Normally I would've said the sooner the better, but I just saw the insanely moronic deals the Lakers gave the Pelicans, and the Clippers gave OKC, and if from a position of weakness, those teams could swindle that thoroughly, could we do the same, or is it just specific to this offseason where the Warriors have exited stage left due to the Durant and Thompson departure and injury? Was it a one off deal? How can we get relatively similar comp?