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2021 Draft Thread - Part II

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#161 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:02 am

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:I think it depends on draft night if someone who was supposedly top 7-12 starts falling and is there at 15 then yeah someone absolutely could call and be like yo trade back and we might. It just depends on what's happening if not on falls and no one sees the value in it we gonna have to make the best of it.

But specifically, it has to be either NY or Houston that has such an epiphany. That reduces the odds considerably.

Why just NY or Houston?

E.g. OKC has the #18 & both the #34 & #36. They owe us a R2 pick in 2024. We could take the #18 plus the #36 in return for the #15 & that 2024 R2 pick they owe us.

There's always a way....



Nice, I like it !!

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#162 » by wall_glizzy » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:03 am

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Preferred a trade down 2 years ago. Preferred staying put last year and I prefer staying put this year although I don't completely rule a trade down out. I've cooled on the idea of trading down for 2nds. An additional first? That would interest me more. I'd still want a chance at either Cooper or Springer and settling the 3rd or 4th choice would be a little disappointing to me. Cooper strikes me as clear lottery pick. Springer late lottery. I also think there's a decent chance someone unexpected falls (like Haliburton did last yr - and Deni too).

Well, of course such a trade could be structured to either happen or not happen depending on who was on the board when #15 came around. I would guess that it's usually like that -- in one way or another there's a way out if a surprise drops a superior player to your pick.

Edit: by the way, this trade illustrates another point about the draft -- a far more significant point! Imagine if the Kings hadn't wanted to go for Portland's trade.

The Blazers would have been stuck taking any two of the following players: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White & Josh Hart. Instead they got Zach Collins.


Or maybe they'd have made the same picks the Kings did with the #15 and #20 - Harry Giles and Skal Labissiere.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#163 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:10 am

Yes indeed -- they might have. Because NBA teams make major draft-pick mistakes all the time. In this case, the team that traded up picked a guy who hasn't worked out. & the team that traded down picked two guys who haven't worked out! :)

Meanwhile, the guy who was picked #51 that same year has turned into one of the best young point guards in the game.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#164 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:04 am

NBA DRAFT ROOM
Latest: Jared Butler given a clean bill of health to play in the NBA!


I'd have no problem if we take Butler at 15. Love everything about him! If he checks out healthwise he should be strongly considered.


I am still hoping for trade down. McBride and Wieskamp are both being undervalued IMO, and I would love to come away with the two of them.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#165 » by gambitx777 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:20 am

I really like Mann and springer. If we move back I'd keep an eye on those two.

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#166 » by FAH1223 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:36 am

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#167 » by queridiculo » Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:43 am

Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#168 » by gambitx777 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 11:55 am

queridiculo wrote:Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?
I thought of the idea of trading
Bryant,gill and unprotect the 23
For
Martin Jr, 24

Or Bryant , gill ,15. We get 2023 girls back but they get pick swap rights with us in 22 and 23
For
Martin Jr, 23,24

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#169 » by pcbothwel » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:18 pm

queridiculo wrote:Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?


Everyone's answer SHOULD be the same for this. Which is: Depends.
If we move Beal and rebuild, then that pick could be in the 5-10 range in what appears to be a loaded draft. Hard Pass.
If we extend Beal, then I trust that we would be a borderline playoff team and therefore, yes, I would make that trade.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#170 » by Ruzious » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:32 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
gambitx777 wrote:I think it depends on draft night if someone who was supposedly top 7-12 starts falling and is there at 15 then yeah someone absolutely could call and be like yo trade back and we might. It just depends on what's happening if not on falls and no one sees the value in it we gonna have to make the best of it.

But specifically, it has to be either NY or Houston that has such an epiphany. That reduces the odds considerably.

Why just NY or Houston?

E.g. OKC has the #18 & both the #34 & #36. They owe us a R2 pick in 2024. We could take the #18 plus the #36 in return for the #15 & that 2024 R2 pick they owe us.

There's always a way....

I think it's Memphis that owes us a 2024 round 2 pick; not Houston. https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#171 » by Ruzious » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:39 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
queridiculo wrote:Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?


Everyone's answer SHOULD be the same for this. Which is: Depends.
If we move Beal and rebuild, then that pick could be in the 5-10 range in what appears to be a loaded draft. Hard Pass.
If we extend Beal, then I trust that we would be a borderline playoff team and therefore, yes, I would make that trade.

It's a no for me either way - I'm not going to bet on the Wiz doing well. Also, I think Butler slides farther than that. It's great that he got a ruling allowing him to play with his heart condition, but when teams hear "heart condition" they get nervous - and Butler isn't a game-changer.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#172 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:55 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:But specifically, it has to be either NY or Houston that has such an epiphany. That reduces the odds considerably.

Why just NY or Houston?

E.g. OKC has the #18 & both the #34 & #36. They owe us a R2 pick in 2024. We could take the #18 plus the #36 in return for the #15 & that 2024 R2 pick they owe us.

There's always a way....

I think it's Memphis that owes us a 2024 round 2 pick; not Houston. https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/team

Yes, but OKC owns that pick & traded it to us in return for swapping the #37 last year for the #53 which we used to take Winston. This was, btw, an absolutely terrible move. Small scale but a steal for OKC.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#173 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:56 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:We need a player who can guard elite offensive scorers and at least make them work. Rui is simply not that guy.

I think Rui is that guy. He'll be a legit stopper in this league....

You've said this kind of thing about Rui several times. I would be really grateful if you'd explain why you think this -- & above all why you seem to be so extraordinarily confident about it. To a point approaching certainty.

Am I misreading you? If I'm not, then anything to support that projection would be most useful & welcome.

You keep asking this question, but I can't answer it to your satisfaction because you only believe box score stats, and defense isn't measured by box score stats.

The best I can tell you is that, I watch the games and I watch how teams treat Rui. Nobody runs screens to try to force a mismatch against Rui. They go at other players - virtually any other player on the roster. Likewise, the Wizards try to have Rui guard the opposition's best offensive forward. They always do.

When you watch the playoffs wear on, you see how teams attack weak defenders, ultimately forcing coaches to shorten their rotation to extreme levels. Phoenix only plays 6 guys now: the starters plus Cam Johnson. Milwaukee is really only comfortable with 5 guys: Jrue, Middleton, Connaughton, Tucker and Giannis, and they hold their breath whenever Portis or Lopez are in the game.

Rui is a guy who can stay in a game defensively. Indeed, looking at our roster, the only guys that look like they can play in a Finals game without getting played off the floor are Beal, Westbrook and Rui. Maybe Gafford has a chance, but probably not against a team like Milwaukee that can take out their center and force Gafford to defend someone on the perimeter. We saw this in our playoff matchup against Philly. Rui, Russ and Beal each played over 170 minutes. The next highest guys were Gafford (117), Neto (112), Ish (111) and Bertans (106); and we all know that playing Neto and Ish is not ideal, and that Bertans can't play when it matters. Basically, we played 3-and-a-half guys: Beal, Russ, Rui and Gafford, and all the other guys played only because there were no other options, not because those were guys we actually wanted to have on the floor.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#174 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:41 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
queridiculo wrote:Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?

Everyone's answer SHOULD be the same for this. Which is: Depends.
If we move Beal and rebuild, then that pick could be in the 5-10 range in what appears to be a loaded draft. Hard Pass.
If we extend Beal, then I trust that we would be a borderline playoff team and therefore, yes, I would make that trade.

I wouldn't think about it that way. But, I also wouldn't have it depend on Butler.

What it should depend on is whether there is a guy on the board at #24 who has a solid chance to be at least an above average NBA player.

Essentially you are saying that you'd take the #24 this year for a #16 2 years from now but not for a #10 2 years from now. I'd say that significantly over-values the difference between those 2 picks.

As to "rebuilding" -- of course we'll be rebuilding in 2 years! We're rebuilding right now.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#175 » by Shoe » Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:41 pm

payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:
payitforward wrote:Well... you more or less repeated my proposal to trade with Houston. They will never do 15 for 23 & 24. If 15 & 2 would get them 1, so would 23, 24 & 2, so why trade?

But, as I say... remove/lighten the protections on our #23 r1 & maybe there's a deal there.


Because teams value higher picks. History has shown your valuation of 23 + 24 is way higher than NBA GMs. Probably because your valuation of an open roster spot is way lower than NBA GMs.

Hey, you may be right, but... it's not "my" valuation of 23 + 24. Thinking about this kind of trade, I use Kevin Pelton as my starting point (http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2). There's plenty of work behind his chart; he's not guessing, he's using research & analysis.

Of course, he could still be all wrong -- but... does it seem likely? Even if he's not all wrong, though, it's still not some kind of hard and fast rule -- how could it be? Plus, there would also have to be exceptions. Or other considerations -- e.g. Memphis took on Mario Hezonja's salary when they made that draft day trade for Desmond Bane.

But, maybe you've got an actual trade in mind that would make it easy to believe someone would take 15 for 23 & 24. If so, then you're for sure correct. What trade do you have in mind?


Pistons already have 4 picks this year and a young roster. Easy to believe they prefer 15 to 23/24.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#176 » by closg00 » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:07 pm

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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#177 » by pcbothwel » Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:23 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
queridiculo wrote:Question, would you remove the protection from the pick we owe to the Rockets in exchange for the 24th pick if Jared Butler slides?

Everyone's answer SHOULD be the same for this. Which is: Depends.
If we move Beal and rebuild, then that pick could be in the 5-10 range in what appears to be a loaded draft. Hard Pass.
If we extend Beal, then I trust that we would be a borderline playoff team and therefore, yes, I would make that trade.

I wouldn't think about it that way. But, I also wouldn't have it depend on Butler.

What it should depend on is whether there is a guy on the board at #24 who has a solid chance to be at least an above average NBA player.

Essentially you are saying that you'd take the #24 this year for a #16 2 years from now but not for a #10 2 years from now. I'd say that significantly over-values the difference between those 2 picks.

As to "rebuilding" -- of course we'll be rebuilding in 2 years! We're rebuilding right now.


You are making light of the pick difference. This team with no Beal (And probably no Russ) in a full rebuild will, AT BEST, pick 10th... but its really more likely to be closer to 5.
This team with Russ & Beal (Along with growth from Rui, Deni, Gafford, 15, and 24) is probably closer to the 5th/6th seed.

So its not 10 vs 16... but more like 7 vs 18. But you also cant rule out that we end up picking top 5. This team with no Beal is EASILY worse than the Raptors and TWolves from the last year.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#178 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:33 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:I think Rui is that guy. He'll be a legit stopper in this league....

You've said this kind of thing about Rui several times. I would be really grateful if you'd explain why you think this -- & above all why you seem to be so extraordinarily confident about it. To a point approaching certainty.

Am I misreading you? If I'm not, then anything to support that projection would be most useful & welcome.

You keep asking this question, but I can't answer it to your satisfaction because you only believe box score stats, and defense isn't measured by box score stats....

Please don't act like I'm simple-minded or one-dimensional, nate -- I don't pull that attitude on you. In particular, my question couldn't have been framed more respectfully. & if I'm engaging with an individual, I hope he will notice that respect & respond in kind -- as you usually do.

For the sake of clarity, box scores are data. They aren't inherently a form of knowledge, tho of course they do provide information, hence there is something to learn from them. Thus, I notice that you use box score data whenever you find that it supports a point you want to make (e.g. on/off -- but all the rest of them as well: it's from the box score that we learn Rui's 3pt %, & it's from box scores that we learn about the changes in rebounding patterns per position).

None of this should be a surprise, given that a box score tells you unambiguously who won or lost a game, & quite often suffices as well to tell you why a team won or lost.

You are absolutely correct, however, that the box score tells you nothing about defense. &, in fact, defense is obviously so much a matter of teamwork that it can be really hard to judge individual defenders -- e.g. one guy who doesn't pay attention can put another guy in a position to look like a bad defender.

For that reason, I appreciate what you go on to write:

nate33 wrote:...The best I can tell you is that, I watch the games and I watch how teams treat Rui. Nobody runs screens to try to force a mismatch against Rui. They go at other players - virtually any other player on the roster. Likewise, the Wizards try to have Rui guard the opposition's best offensive forward. They always do....

Thanks, that's to the point of my question; it's a reason why you think something. Of course, being a team's best defender doesn't necessarily mean that a guy is a good defender, but still this is what I was asking about. & if you can be a little more granular about it, I'll be appreciative. I.e. what is Rui doing that dissuades the opponent from going at him?

nate33 wrote:...When you watch the playoffs wear on, you see how teams attack weak defenders, ultimately forcing coaches to shorten their rotation to extreme levels. Phoenix only plays 6 guys now: the starters plus Cam Johnson....

I thought of Torrey Craig as a player known for his high-level (or at least high-effort?) defense, but he gets no PT.

nate33 wrote:...Milwaukee is really only comfortable with 5 guys: Jrue, Middleton, Connaughton, Tucker and Giannis, and they hold their breath whenever Portis or Lopez are in the game. ...

Pat Connaughton really is having a great series. I'm glad you mentioned him.

nate33 wrote:...Rui is a guy who can stay in a game defensively. Indeed, looking at our roster, the only guys that look like they can play in a Finals game without getting played off the floor are Beal, Westbrook and Rui....

Ok, thanks -- I have an idea what you mean.

Overall, it seems like defense is largely a question of 1) focus & attention, & 2) individual athleticism (i.e. as opposed to specific highly-developed "skills"). Since Rui is clearly a hard worker & is obviously more than adequately athletic even for an NBA player, it makes sense that he would establish himself more quickly & at a higher level on defense than on offense.
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#179 » by dckingsfan » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:35 pm

9 days to go...
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Re: 2021 Draft Thread - Part II 

Post#180 » by dckingsfan » Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:39 pm

closg00 wrote:
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This doesn't have Murphy or Garuba falling to us... much less both being available in the 20s.

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