Presti's Tree Reaches DC: The Official Will Dawkins Thread

[nate33]

Definitely also have taken a moment to reflect on the young guys with decent potential on the roster. I'm excited to see what they have in store for this off-season. Would like to dump Kispert and hopefully Poole for some more stuff down the road. Happy to keep one or both of Middleton and Smart. Not sure what the plan is for Bey other than trying to flip him for another 2nd rounder or two.

I'm also worried about over performing next year if they get Flagg and do nothing else. Adding him might put as at 5th worst roster if they do nothing else, which leaves enough room to exceed expectations or for another team or two to stealth tank.

We may need to bring back Grundle and Tommy S. for front office consultations on player acquisitions at the deadline if things start off looking too good.

If they get Flagg, they need to let winning happen organically.

Carrington
Coulibaly
Flagg
George
Sarr

Bench: Poole, Smart, Champagnie, Holmes, Middleton, Smart, Bey

The last three players would be trade bait.

Agreed. If they get Flagg, they should never play anybody over the age of 24. Just roll with this rotation:

PG Carrington/AJ
SG Bilal/C.Jones
SF Flagg/Champagnie
PF George/#19 draft pick
C Sarr/Vukcevic

They would probably still finish in the bottom 7 and keep their 2026 pick given the extreme youth overall and the lack of muscle at center. But if they didn't, so be it.

[payitforward]

KP is an oft-injured vet who didn’t want to be here and the team was not going to resign. So anything the rebuilding Zards got for him was a win, imo....

100% -- for the life of me, I cannot understand the insistence on reframing KP's departure as some kind of a "trade" -- a move engineered by us -- when he had clearly stated he was opting out of his contract *unless* we did the deal.

There. Was. No. Alternative.

[nate33]

KP is an oft-injured vet who didn’t want to be here and the team was not going to resign. So anything the rebuilding Zards got for him was a win, imo....

100% -- for the life of me, I cannot understand the insistence on reframing KP's departure as some kind of a "trade" -- a move engineered by us -- when he had clearly stated he was opting out of his contract *unless* we did the deal.

There. Was. No. Alternative.

We've talked about this before and this is BS.

Porzingis was not going to sign with freaking Detroit. We should have called his bluff and forced Boston to include a pick. They would have. The guy was roughly the 25th best player in the NBA by several metrics.

Heck, as it turned out, even getting nothing at all for Porzingis would have been better than what we got. Tyus Jones ultimately departed for nothing. All he did was cost us a couple of tanking losses while taking away the opportunity to develop Poole and Deni as primary ball handlers. We would have been better off with the cap space.

[payitforward]

If they get Flagg, they need to let winning happen organically.

Carrington
Coulibaly
Flagg
George
Sarr

Bench: Poole, Smart, Champagnie, Holmes, Middleton, Smart, Bey

The last three players would be trade bait.

Agreed. If they get Flagg, they should never play anybody over the age of 24. Just roll with this rotation:

PG Carrington/AJ
SG Bilal/C.Jones
SF Flagg/Champagnie
PF George/#19 draft pick
C Sarr/Vukcevic

They would probably still finish in the bottom 7 and keep their 2026 pick given the extreme youth overall and the lack of muscle at center. But if they didn't, so be it.

100%. I love it! But... they have to play Poole; he helps keep us in the bottom 7.

[payitforward]

KP is an oft-injured vet who didn’t want to be here and the team was not going to resign. So anything the rebuilding Zards got for him was a win, imo....

100% -- for the life of me, I cannot understand the insistence on reframing KP's departure as some kind of a "trade" -- a move engineered by us -- when he had clearly stated he was opting out of his contract *unless* we did the deal.

There. Was. No. Alternative.

We've talked about this before and this is BS.

Porzingis was not going to sign with freaking Detroit. We should have called his bluff and forced Boston to include a pick. They would have. The guy was roughly the 25th best player in the NBA by several metrics.

Heck, as it turned out, even getting nothing at all for Porzingis would have been better than what we got. Tyus Jones ultimately departed for nothing. All he did was cost us a couple of tanking losses while taking away the opportunity to develop Poole and Deni as primary ball handlers. We would have been better off with the cap space.

Actually, nate, your final point is a good one. Tyus Jones was no more than a face-saving sop for a brand-new FO.

For the rest, I know this is your position.... The problem is your certainty about what Boston "would have" done isn't based on anything -- &, note, I don't mean that as a provocation to argue, b/c I don't know what they would have done either! if push had come to shove. You might be right. But, in fact, push MIGHT have come to shove. There might have been a stare down, & they determined reasonably that they'd be better to get something than nothing.

Point is that neither of us was in on the discussion. Yet, we both know that every GM tries to get the best deal he can in any deal. Surely, it's at least a little bit of a simplification to imagine that we just said "yes" to whatever they placed before us.

You can't simply assume that KP's management was bluffing with the opt out statement. Over the top bluffs aren't a common business strategy.

But, please, let's not get dragged down the rabbit hole of this argument. It's water over the dam. There's also a chance you are right or partly right -- thus,"no alternative" was an overstatement on my part.

[DCZards]

KP is an oft-injured vet who didn’t want to be here and the team was not going to resign. So anything the rebuilding Zards got for him was a win, imo....

100% -- for the life of me, I cannot understand the insistence on reframing KP's departure as some kind of a "trade" -- a move engineered by us -- when he had clearly stated he was opting out of his contract *unless* we did the deal.

There. Was. No. Alternative.

We've talked about this before and this is BS.

Porzingis was not going to sign with freaking Detroit. We should have called his bluff and forced Boston to include a pick. They would have. The guy was roughly the 25th best player in the NBA by several metrics.

Heck, as it turned out, even getting nothing at all for Porzingis would have been better than what we got. Tyus Jones ultimately departed for nothing. All he did was cost us a couple of tanking losses while taking away the opportunity to develop Poole and Deni as primary ball handlers. We would have been better off with the cap space.

I think the spanking new Zards FO was more interested in moving on from KP than they were in playing poker with KP or Boston. I’m fine with that.

It’s hindsight to now criticize the addition of Tyus Jones, a move most of us liked at the time.

[AFM]

The irony is the PHX experiment didn't work out for Jones

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2025/04/12/phoenix-suns-tyus-jones-devin-booker-frustration-missing-nba-playoffs/83060596007/

Read on Twitter

[dobrojim]

Re the Exit interview YouTubes.

I watched the Keyshawn George and most of the
AJ Johnson ones late last night. Interesting to listen
then respond to the questions although the questions
were difficult to actually hear.

[Kanyewest]

KP is an oft-injured vet who didn’t want to be here and the team was not going to resign. So anything the rebuilding Zards got for him was a win, imo....

100% -- for the life of me, I cannot understand the insistence on reframing KP's departure as some kind of a "trade" -- a move engineered by us -- when he had clearly stated he was opting out of his contract *unless* we did the deal.

There. Was. No. Alternative.

We've talked about this before and this is BS.

Porzingis was not going to sign with freaking Detroit. We should have called his bluff and forced Boston to include a pick. They would have. The guy was roughly the 25th best player in the NBA by several metrics.

Heck, as it turned out, even getting nothing at all for Porzingis would have been better than what we got. Tyus Jones ultimately departed for nothing. All he did was cost us a couple of tanking losses while taking away the opportunity to develop Poole and Deni as primary ball handlers. We would have been better off with the cap space.

Yeah, I just think Jones was a miss. They thought he was a starting caliber point guard- and he wasn't. They thought he would net the Wizards a first rounder in a trade, and he didn't. Yes the Grizzlies were very effective that one season with Jones starting in place of Ja Morant. But the Grizzlies were still a very deep team- (Jackson, Bane, Clarke) etc. - the defense of Grizzlies specifically compensated for Jones's weakness on that end but it's been consecutive teams that Jones couldn't compensate for the weakness of his teammates who were not at best not strong defensively (Poole, Beal, Nurkic).

I think people are still defending this move because they want to believe in the front office and the line of reasoning that they made the move was justifiable at the time. I have to agree though that getting nothing would have been better, which I wouldn't have said so at the time, even though I thought the return for KP was underwhelming.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thanks.

Flagg (or Queen) and Sorber would make this team too good to tank.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nate33, i understand the Advija and Porzingis trades should have netted more, but wouldn’t you describe the Beal trade as exceptional?

Yes. And it looks even better in hindsight with the rapid decline of Beal and the rapid decline of the fortunes of Phoenix.

Interestingly, at the time when it happened, most on this board were disappointed in the return.

Beal really didn't decline. He's been overrated. Same with Kuzma.

Bradley wasn't any better than players making a lot less money. Desmond Bane, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Austin Reeves, and Christian Braun are all as good as Beal IMO.

Phoenix and Milwaukee made Wizard GMEG trade for the big-name veteran deals. They probably let players play GM. Durant had to approve of Beal.

[closg00]

Nate33, i understand the Advija and Porzingis trades should have netted more, but wouldn’t you describe the Beal trade as exceptional?

Yes. And it looks even better in hindsight with the rapid decline of Beal and the rapid decline of the fortunes of Phoenix.

Interestingly, at the time when it happened, most on this board were disappointed in the return.

Beal really didn't decline. He's been overrated. Same with Kuzma.

Bradley wasn't any better than players making a lot less money. Desmond Bane, Norman Powell, Tyler Herro, Austin Reeves, and Christian Braun are all as good as Beal IMO.

Phoenix and Milwaukee made Wizard GMEG trade for the big-name veteran deals. They probably let players play GM. Durant had to approve of Beal.

Here-here, Brad Beal was ALWAYS overrated, he had some good seasons, but he was ALWAYS a fools gold of an NBA SG, he benefited immensely by being on a woeful Wizards team.

[nate33]

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

[TheBlackCzar]

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

It's like they completely forgot he steadily improved into a very good player...... Like damn can't give the man any credit for how far he advanced with us....SMH

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

It's like they completely forgot he steadily improved into a very good player...... Like damn can't give the man any credit for how far he advanced with us....SMH

Beal gets significantly less free throws, and he takes fewer field goal attempts in his minutes as a Suns player. He was elite the year he averaged 31. I'd say he was very good when he made the leap from attempting 4 free throws to attempting 8 free throws a game. Roughly seasons four through nine.

However, he's never been elite like Devin Booker, Klay Thompson, or Jimmy Butler. I think Beal is closer to the players I mentioned.

I stand by what I said earlier. Closg00 is right. Beal is fool's gold.

Why? He's guaranteed to miss 15-20 games per season.

[closg00]

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

At his peak, Beal averaged 31 points per game on a 59.3 TS%, which was 2% above league average of 57.2%. That's elite production.

It's like they completely forgot he steadily improved into a very good player...... Like damn can't give the man any credit for how far he advanced with us....SMH

Beal gets significantly less free throws, and he takes fewer field goal attempts in his minutes as a Suns player. He was elite the year he averaged 31. I'd say he was very good when he made the leap from attempting 4 free throws to attempting 8 free throws a game. Roughly seasons four through nine.

However, he's never been elite like Devin Booker, Klay Thompson, or Jimmy Butler. I think Beal is closer to the players I mentioned.

I stand by what I said earlier. Closg00 is right. Beal is fool's gold.

Why? He's guaranteed to miss 15-20 games per season.

The critical thing for me is that Brad Beal is not a clutch shooter, that is the difference between a star player putting up numbers on a bad team, and being The Guy who can take-over games and hit the dagger for you, the data has born this out:
AI:

Bradley Beal’s clutch shooting percentage has shown significant highs and lows compared to other NBA players. In the 2022-23 season, Beal led all players with at least 15 clutch attempts by shooting 69% (11-for-16), which was the best mark among 47 players in that group at the time.
However, over larger samples and previous seasons, his clutch shooting has been much less efficient. For the 2010s decade, Beal was ranked among the least efficient clutch shooters, with a -57.6 points over average and an effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) that was near the bottom among high-volume clutch shooters. In some seasons, his clutch field-goal percentage dipped as low as 30%, which was among the lowest for players with similar usage.
In summary:
• At his best, Beal has posted elite clutch shooting percentages in small samples.
• Over longer periods, his clutch efficiency has generally ranked below league average compared to other high-usage players

We all saw this^ with our own eyes, that is why so-many were adamantly opposed to throwing big money at him, feel free to look-up his numbers.

[payitforward]

...I think people are still defending this move because they want to believe in the front office and the line of reasoning that they made the move was justifiable at the time....

No. I think they are defending the move because, nate to the contrary notwithstanding, KP explicitly said he was opting out. Explicitly. Committed to it.

As nate points out, we could have forced him to come through on that explicit commitment. In which case, he'd have had to spend a few months in Detroit before winding up on the Celtics. & we wouldn't have gotten anything whatever for him.

&, I suppose it's possible that, as nate maintains, Boston could have been forced to throw in a pick. We'll never know.

Except, of course, we DO know. Or, rather, we do know what we actually got in the deal -- because, the deal brought us more than Tyus. Way more.

It also brought us the #35 pick in the 2023 draft -- which we moved to the Bulls for two future R2 picks. & it also brought us Mike Muscala & Danilo Gallinari, whom we traded for Bagley, whom we then traded (along with a R2 pick & Johnny Davis, who was immediately waived) for Marcus Smart, Colby Jones, & the Grizzlies' 2025 R1 pick.

So, in all, even though Porzingis had committed himself to opting out, we nonetheless managed to turn him (along with a R2 pick) into Marcus Smart, Colby Jones, a 2025 R1 pick, & 2 R2 picks.

Now how does the deal look?

[Northwest Roddy]

I’m so grateful to finally be on the other side of these trading for players on the wrong side of their careers. From Dan Roundfield to Mitch Richmond to Rod Strickland to Ike Austin etc.

[dobrojim]

...I think people are still defending this move because they want to believe in the front office and the line of reasoning that they made the move was justifiable at the time....

No. I think they are defending the move because, nate to the contrary notwithstanding, KP explicitly said he was opting out. Explicitly. Committed to it.

As nate points out, we could have forced him to come through on that explicit commitment. In which case, he'd have had to spend a few months in Detroit before winding up on the Celtics. & we wouldn't have gotten anything whatever for him.

&, I suppose it's possible that, as nate maintains, Boston could have been forced to throw in a pick. We'll never know.

Except, of course, we DO know. Or, rather, we do know what we actually got in the deal -- because, the deal brought us more than Tyus. Way more.

It also brought us the #35 pick in the 2023 draft -- which we moved to the Bulls for two future R2 picks. & it also brought us Mike Muscala & Danilo Gallinari, whom we traded for Bagley, whom we then traded (along with a R2 pick & Johnny Davis, who was immediately waived) for Marcus Smart, Colby Jones, & the Grizzlies' 2025 R1 pick.

So, in all, even though Porzingis had committed himself to opting out, we nonetheless managed to turn him (along with a R2 pick) into Marcus Smart, Colby Jones, a 2025 R1 pick, & 2 R2 picks.

Now how does the deal look?

I agree with you but it just seems like a long winding
road to get here. A great deal of patience was
required.

[payitforward]

The critical thing for me is that Brad Beal is not a clutch shooter, that is the difference between a star player putting up numbers on a bad team, and being The Guy who can take-over games and hit the dagger for you, the data has born this out:
AI:

Bradley Beal’s clutch shooting percentage has shown significant highs and lows compared to other NBA players. In the 2022-23 season, Beal led all players with at least 15 clutch attempts by shooting 69% (11-for-16), which was the best mark among 47 players in that group at the time.
However, over larger samples and previous seasons, his clutch shooting has been much less efficient. For the 2010s decade, Beal was ranked among the least efficient clutch shooters, with a -57.6 points over average and an effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) that was near the bottom among high-volume clutch shooters. In some seasons, his clutch field-goal percentage dipped as low as 30%, which was among the lowest for players with similar usage.
In summary:
• At his best, Beal has posted elite clutch shooting percentages in small samples.
• Over longer periods, his clutch efficiency has generally ranked below league average compared to other high-usage players

All in all this kind of thing is pure hooey. The sample sizes are small in all cases, & no one -- pure & simple: no one -- can show any statistical relationship between so-called "clutch" shooting & victories any greater than the relationship between first quarter shooting & victories.

It's true that Brad was never one of the, say, 25 best players in the league. Any more than John Wall was. The numbers just plain don't support the idea.

But, that's not because of some "secret weakness."

First off, the points you score in the first quarter have the exact same relationship to your chances to win the game as the points you score in quarters 2, 3 & 4.

& there's more to winning NBA games than scoring. Brad was above average for a 2 guard in a bunch of other things as well.

In short, Brad was a very good player whose career went South in his early 30's. That's not unusual. & it's mean-spirited to give him a hard time about it.

Ted & Tommy gave him an absolutely idiotic contract. Criticize them. He didn't say no, that's true -- would you have?