2024 Draft Thread - Part III

[Frichuela]

I find it odd that ATL's GM says this publicly...

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[willbcocks]

I find it odd that ATL's GM says this publicly...

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Classic CYA. If Sarr blows up and their pick/trade looks bad in retrospect, they can blame Sarr and his agent.

[NatP4]

Yep, built in excuse. You would never reveal something like that if you still planned to draft him or had hopes of maintaining leverage for a team to trade up and get Sarr.

Damage control

[nate33]

I find it odd that ATL's GM says this publicly...

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Classic CYA. If Sarr blows up and their pick/trade looks bad in retrospect, they can blame Sarr and his agent.

Excellent point. This is one more good reason to assume Sarr will be there for us at #2.

[NatP4]

Castle is another good example that makes you question what the heck goes into talent evaluation, the shooting chart posted earlier and Givony’s comments on his shooting are pretty devastating. Yet, Castle appears to be a winner and has the moxy that teams like.

It’s a testament to what teams think about his non-shooting contributions.

28% on open NCAA 3pt line catch and shoot attempts is absolutely terrible.

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[Pitbull]

Unless someone trades up, but that should not be us. We let this play out and select 2 or trade back and pick up an asset.

I would rather be in our position than Atlanta's.. at least for this draft.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

A day away and I'm bummed about the high probability of Sarr being the pick. It would be malpractice if we gave up anything of significant value (ala 26th) to move up to get him, when I don't even want him if we can have him at value at our spot. I get that you have to take some swings for the fences given our position, but the bust potential with him has to be factored in here too.

This talk of there almost being a relationship there with Sarr & Dawkins makes me feel queasy that we've got blinders on. Hope I'm wrong.

[nate33]

Unless someone trades up, but that should not be us. We let this play out and select 2 or trade back and pick up an asset.

I would rather be in our position than Atlanta's.. at least for this draft.

The good news is that Atlanta presumably still wants to stay pretty high in the draft so they can land Clingan or Risacher. And there aren't many teams with very high lotto picks who have a burning desire for Sarr. I don't see Houston, San Antonio, Detroit or Charlotte trading up for him.

The only other possibility would be if a team totally outside the high lottery was willing to trade a high quality player for the #1 pick. The only team that comes to mind with an expendable good youngish player and a need at center is New Orleans with Brandon Ingram.

[DCZards]

Castle is another good example that makes you question what the heck goes into talent evaluation, the shooting chart posted earlier and Givony’s comments on his shooting are pretty devastating. Yet, Castle appears to be a winner and has the moxy that teams like.

It’s a testament to what teams think about his non-shooting contributions.

28% on open NCAA 3pt line catch and shoot attempts is absolutely terrible.

No doubt. It’s probably also a testament to teams’ belief that Castle can improve his shooting.

[NatP4]

This talk of there almost being a relationship there with Sarr & Dawkins makes me feel queasy that we've got blinders on. Hope I'm wrong.

Fully agree with you there. Add in the “French connection” stuff. It’s a bit concerning, and I would rather take Sheppard.

On the other hand, not many 18 year olds produce like Sarr in the NBL (3rd or 4th best league in the world behind NBA, French league, and maybe ACB). Per36: 19 points 9 rebounds 3 blocks 2 assists 1 steals on 57% TS. Played on a solid NBL/playoff team in competitive/high intensity games throughout the year.

He’s got a unique superpower/skill of being able to defend 1-5 at a high level, without fouling. Not just survive on switches, probably better guarding on the perimeter than in the paint. You rarely see prospects like that. It’s upside that you have to gamble on, but there’s a really solid floor with the production.

Comparable numbers to Evan Mobley, who was a year older than Sarr, and played significantly weaker competition in the NCAA.

The entire draft world seemingly has the blinders on with any league that isn’t the French league, possibly due to recency bias with Wemby/Coulibaly. Could be why Risacher and Salaun are ranked so high, ABA guys like Topic/Djurisic are low, NBL guys like Flowers/Hukporti/Klintmann are total afterthoughts. Same with Dadiet and Nunez in the German league.

[doclinkin]

Castle is another good example that makes you question what the heck goes into talent evaluation, the shooting chart posted earlier and Givony’s comments on his shooting are pretty devastating. Yet, Castle appears to be a winner and has the moxy that teams like.

It’s a testament to what teams think about his non-shooting contributions.

28% on open NCAA 3pt line catch and shoot attempts is absolutely terrible.

No doubt. It’s probably also a testament to teams’ belief that Castle can improve his shooting.

Right. The fact that he shot 72% in the motion shooting drills at the Combine with all eyes on him (as well as his fine % from the FT) goes towards his mental strength and probability of improvement in any areas of weakness in his game. So far in his short career when he was challenged to do a thing he met the challenge. He is being drafted for defense, but also for his determination and focus along with the raw potential of a guy who is able to match up with PGs but has the strength to play frontcourt positions. It's an upside play. Nobody in this draft is perfect. You are drafting for hope. Projection. Same with Sarr or Holland or Topic. You are drafting for your best guess on their likelihood to improve. Those of us who are doubters on Sarr think he may not meet that potential. Those of us who like Castle are betting on the dawg in him, to overcome whatever flaws he shows today.

Otherwise you take Reed Sheppard. Knowing he will never grow taller, but does already show a complete game. Fundamentally unflawed. Other than being a little overmatched defending his best NBA position.

Or you know. You trade back and draft both Castle and the big guy. The 2x Naismith winner. An even more finished product.

[wewillnevertank]

Comparable numbers to Evan Mobley, who was a year older than Sarr, and played significantly weaker competition in the NCAA.

IIRC, Mobley was far more polished at this age, and was far more productive as a shotblocker.

[closg00]

I find it odd that ATL's GM says this publicly...

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Classic CYA. If Sarr blows up and their pick/trade looks bad in retrospect, they can blame Sarr and his agent.

Luka/Trae is burned into the memories of the fans forever and the fans definitely don’t want to pass-up on Sarr, the GM needs cover.

[joshuacf]

Comparable numbers to Evan Mobley, who was a year older than Sarr, and played significantly weaker competition in the NCAA.

IIRC, Mobley was far more polished at this age, and was far more productive as a shotblocker.

Mobley's numbers as a freshman were significantly higher across the board than Sarr's in the NBL. 16.4 ppg, 8.7 rbds, 2.9 blcks, 2.4 asts for Mobley versus 9.4ppg, 4.3 rbds, 1.5 blks, 0.9 asts for Sarr.

Shooting wise they're actually very similar, 30% 3P and 68% FT for Mobley vs 30% 3P and 71% FT for Sarr.

I also don't buy the significantly weaker competition thing; Mobley was (the best player) on a very good USC team that made the Elite 8 and had, according to SportsRef, the 19th hardest schedule in the entire NCAA.

It's kind of a moot point anyway because Mobley was a year older than Sarr is, and Mobley would have been the consensus #1 in this years draft. Gotta take what you can get.

[closg00]

Count me in for Simpson as well. Had a chance to watch 3-4 of his late season games…and it seemed like he took over at the end of every game with his shooting, passing and penetration.

On this upload they mention Simpson glowingly, sometimes the eyeball test and analytics come together.

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[NatP4]

Mobley's numbers as a freshman were significantly higher across the board than Sarr's in the NBL. 16.4 ppg, 8.7 rbds, 2.9 blcks, 2.4 asts for Mobley versus 9.4ppg, 4.3 rbds, 1.5 blks, 0.9 asts for Sarr.

This is really basic stuff. Mobley played 34 mpg, Sarr played 18 mpg.

Per36:

Mobley(age 19, NCAA): 17.4 points 9.2 rebounds 2.5 assists 3.1 blocks 0.8 steals 2.4 turnovers 62% TS

Sarr(age 18, NBL): 19.2 points 9.0 rebounds 2.1 assists 3.1 blocks 0.9 steals 2.1 turnovers 57% TS

NBL is significantly tougher competition than NCAA. Should not even be a discussion.

[Silvie Lysandra]

I also don't buy the significantly weaker competition thing; Mobley was (the best player) on a very good USC team that made the Elite 8 and had, according to SportsRef, the 19th hardest schedule in the entire NCAA.

The bottom NBL team has rotational guys who would be a top 3 player at minimum on *every* NCAA team. The NCAA is more top heavy, but overall its VERY weak compared to the top 5 or so pro leagues.

[nate33]

IIRC, Mobley was far more polished at this age, and was far more productive as a shotblocker.

Mobley's numbers as a freshman were significantly higher across the board than Sarr's in the NBL. 16.4 ppg, 8.7 rbds, 2.9 blcks, 2.4 asts for Mobley versus 9.4ppg, 4.3 rbds, 1.5 blks, 0.9 asts for Sarr.

Shooting wise they're actually very similar, 30% 3P and 68% FT for Mobley vs 30% 3P and 71% FT for Sarr.

I also don't buy the significantly weaker competition thing; Mobley was (the best player) on a very good USC team that made the Elite 8 and had, according to SportsRef, the 19th hardest schedule in the entire NCAA.

It's kind of a moot point anyway because Mobley was a year older than Sarr is, and Mobley would have been the consensus #1 in this years draft. Gotta take what you can get.

Tankathon has the per 36 numbers:



The shooting percentages look pretty bad for Sarr, but most of it is because he takes too many 3-pointers. (That's bad for statistical production, but probably good from a developmental perspective). Their 2P% is .577 for Sarr and .608 for Mobley.

[NatP4]

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[J-Ves]

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lol Chris Miller at the end. Got to love that guy even if he sucks as a play by play man