Shams: Kuz and Baldwin to Bucks for Middleton, Johnson, '28 Pick Swap

[nate33]

Middleton is a perfect mentor for Kyshawn George. George's ceiling is probably something like prime Middleton.

[Frichuela]

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[doclinkin]

The Wizards fleeced the bucks so badly in this trade that before long, I expect people to start complaining that Khris Middleton is ruining the tank.

My favorite is when Bucks fans pop in here telling us that Kuzma just needs to unlearn the bad habits from a losing team. So he goes on to post the worst +/- numbers of his career. Meanwhile the Wiz start winning, and more importantly, playing better team ball. Sometimes the common denominator of all that losing is the guy who is doing the losing. Just a thought.

[J-Ves]

The Wizards fleeced the bucks so badly in this trade that before long, I expect people to start complaining that Khris Middleton is ruining the tank.

My favorite is when Bucks fans pop in here telling us that Kuzma just needs to unlearn the bad habits from a losing team. So he goes on to post the worst +/- numbers of his career. Meanwhile the Wiz start winning, and more importantly, playing better team ball. Sometimes the common denominator of all that losing is the guy who is doing the losing. Just a thought.

So many fans have their cause and effect backwards. Good players equates to more wins. All the talk about winning/losing culture is incredibly overblown

[payitforward]

Good point!
I don't know if he's the guy, but somebody's doing it! We're 6-4 in the last 10 games!

wait... what happened to the post i was responding to...?!!!?

Edit... Oh here it is:

The Wizards fleeced the bucks so badly in this trade that before long, I expect people to start complaining that Khris Middleton is ruining the tank.

[payitforward]

The Wizards fleeced the bucks so badly in this trade that before long, I expect people to start complaining that Khris Middleton is ruining the tank.

My favorite is when Bucks fans pop in here telling us that Kuzma just needs to unlearn the bad habits from a losing team. So he goes on to post the worst +/- numbers of his career. Meanwhile the Wiz start winning, and more importantly, playing better team ball. Sometimes the common denominator of all that losing is the guy who is doing the losing. Just a thought.

So many fans have their cause and effect backwards. Good players equates to more wins....

You are absolutely correct.

Better players put up better numbers. That's what "better" means.

Team numbers are simply the sum of player numbers. You get better team numbers if your players are better.

Better team numbers equate to more wins. No exceptions.

[Despy]

Maimi heat exist

[payitforward]

Miami heat exist

Yep.

& when Lebron, Wade & Bosch were there, Miami's culture was so great that they won a title.

Plus, in '18-19 they won 39 games. Fortunately, Jimmy Butler arrived in the subsequent off season, & their culture improved immediately.

[Despy]

Miami heat exist

Yep.

& when Lebron, Wade & Bosch were there, Miami's culture was so great that they won a title.

Plus, in '18-19 they won 39 games. Fortunately, Jimmy Butler arrived in the subsequent off season, & their culture improved immediately.

There might have been some infrastructure before lebron joined that held to a title or more than just jimmy that lead to two finals appearances

[payitforward]

Miami heat exist

Yep.

& when Lebron, Wade & Bosch were there, Miami's culture was so great that they won a title.

Plus, in '18-19 they won 39 games. Fortunately, Jimmy Butler arrived in the subsequent off season, & their culture improved immediately.

There might have been some infrastructure before lebron joined that held to a title or more than just jimmy that lead to two finals appearances

Sure! & there is no better example than Miami of the point you want to make. An incredibly disciplined organization that has vision, sticks to its vision, & recognizes & rewards talent.

All the same, this is a players' game. & when prime Dwayne Wade, Lebron James, & Chris Bosh join your team, you are going to contend for a title! Now... they may decide to come to you with your organization's virtues in mind. No doubt.

In short... I don't think we really disagree. &, just as we are laying a foundation of talent here, we are also giving evidence of having organizational goals, structure & commitment -- of building a "culture," in other words!

[gambitx777]

I mean man
How this team was able to dump beal and Liz the way they did. That was wild. I know they **** up with not getting picks from Dallas but **** it this was a killer trade.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

I really wish that protects pick didn't depend on Portland. Having pure unprotected swap rights would have been sweet.

From the RealGM pick tracker page:

2028 first round draft pick from Milwaukee or Portland (Washington, Brooklyn, Philadelphia or Phoenix outgoing to Milwaukee) [this overlaps with another incoming pick to Washington]
Portland will receive the more favorable of its 2028 1st round pick, protected for selections 15-30 if Portland has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Chicago by 2027, and Milwaukee's 2028 1st round pick; Washington will receive the more favorable of (i) the more favorable of (a) Washington's 2028 1st round pick and (b) the least / less favorable of Brooklyn's 2028 1st round pick, Philadelphia's 2028 1st round pick, which would be protected for selections 1-8 if Philadelphia does not convey a 1st round pick to Brooklyn in 2027 and otherwise conveyable if Philadelphia has conveyed a 1st round pick to Oklahoma City by 2026, and Phoenix's 2028 1st round pick and (ii) the less favorable of the Milwaukee pick and the Portland pick if conveyable and Milwaukee will receive the less favorable of (i) and (ii); if the Portland pick is not conveyable, then Milwaukee's obligation to Portland will be extinguished and Washington will instead have the right to swap for the Milwaukee pick [see (ii) above] (via Portland's right to swap for Milwaukee; via Washington's right to swap Washington, Brooklyn, Philadelphia or Phoenix for Milwaukee or Portland) [Milwaukee-Phoenix-Portland, 9/27/2023; Milwaukee-New York-Washington, 2/6/2025]

It took me a while, but I think I finally figured out this pick situation.

The issue is that Portland still owes a pick to Chicago which is lotto-protected through 2028. There are 3 scenarios:

• Portland makes the playoffs in either 2025-26 or 2026-27, then that pick will convey to Chicago and Portland will have their own pick available in 2028 to swap with Milwaukee. Portland will execute that swap first, and then we have the option to swap our pick with the worst of MIL/POR pick that is leftover in Milwaukee's possession.
• Portland misses the playoffs in 2025-26, 2026-27, and 2027-28. Their pick obligation to Chicago would be extinguished (or rather, converted into SRP's), which means they still have their 2028 pick to swap, and they will execute that swap with MIL if advantageous for them. Again, we will get sloppy seconds on that swap, which probably means it won't help us much.
• Portland misses the playoffs in 2025-26 and 2026-27, but makes the playoffs in 2027-28. In that scenario, they would be forced to complete their obligation with Chicago and send their 2028 FRP to Chicago. That leaves them with no pick to swap with Milwaukee. That means our swap with Milwaukee would still be in place, unfettered by Portland. If Milwaukee is worse than us in 2027-28, the pick swap could be very helpful.

Finally, if all three of Brooklyn, Phoenix and Philadelphia finish with a worse record than us, and Philly also finishes outside of the bottom 8, then we would have the option to swap our pick with the worst pick between Brooklyn, Phoenix and Philly if that pick happened to be better than the POR/MIL pick we would end up getting from the above scenario. Ultimately, this one seems fairly unlikely. One of those teams is probably going to be better than us, or at least better than the best of POR/MIL.

TLDR: we should root for Portland to miss the playoffs in each of the next two seasons, and then make the playoffs in 2027-28 while hopefully Milwaukee bottoms out in the same season.

[doclinkin]

It took me a while, but I think I finally figured out this pick situation.

The issue is that Portland still owes a pick to Chicago which is lotto-protected through 2028. There are 3 scenarios:

[list][*]Portland makes the playoffs in either 2025-26 or 2026-27, then that pick will convey to Chicago and Portland will have their own pick available in 2028 to swap with Milwaukee. Portland will execute that swap first, and then we have the option to swap our pick with the worst of MIL/POR pick that is leftover in Milwaukee's possession.

I think this is the most likely scenario. The Blazers were 3 wins away from the play-in games. Behind teams like the Suns and Mavs who are older and vulnerable to injury. Likewise the Lakers and Clippers who rely on stars on the downslope of prime. There will be teams who make a choice to tank heavy next year making a virtue of necessity.

The only question then is whether the Blazers can sustain their ascension. Deni is on the rise. You figure Scoot has too much talent not to grow and improve. Players like Camara and Sharpe are talented. Clingan is a difference maker in the middle. A small playoff run may help them all gel. Add a lotto pick this year and they could be decent next year. Going forward the question is if they can keep it all together.

In 2026 Simons and Ayton are Unrestricted. So whatever they add to that playoff run may be gone. No big deal in the case of Ayton since he only played 40 games and Clingan should take over for him. Simons has competition in talented players coming up behind him so maybe they let him go and still maintain. Use the high cap number from these two to fill other holes. Though they have to save some of their powder to re-up other guys on their roster coming due. Shaedon Sharpe is a RFA in '26. They'll extend Scoot. Add pieces.

Of course they will be missing one of those pieces if their pick ships to the Bulls. They also have no 2nd round picks in 26 except a heavily protected Grizzlies pick (they get it if it's 43 or later).

By 2027 they only have on the books Deni and Jerami Grant. Scoot and Kris Murray hit restricted free agency (if Scoot isn't already extended) and Camara is unrestricted. And two first round picks.

By 2028 Pretty much it comes down to if they draft well in this lotto, and one of the 26/27 drafts, and what they do with the cap room from Ayton and Simons expiring. They could be good with young talented players entering their prime, and cap room from expiring deals (and new TV deals) allowing them to hold on to core players. Or they could be picked apart by vultures who themselves have new cap money to peel off some of the Blazers key free agents. They have serious decisions to make. All depends on if you think their brain trust has it all in check and is making smart decisions. The Deni acquisition says sure. SMall market but maybe the Deni led teams look fun to free agents trying to join an uptempo team that is improving.

Still, after a playoff run, players whose contracts are coming due look attractive to other teams. All I know is their multi year salary table is blazing with color after this year. https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/yearly That's either an opportunity to upgrade across the board or a chance that a short term success turns to a mess trying to keep it all together.

Either way Milwaukee is probably in a worse state. Dame and Giannis up for renewal, Kuzma the only one on the books.

Never know what will happen, if we luck out in the lotto, pick well, trade well, and our youth all gel, we may be in a better situation than both of the teams, so the added value of a pick swap is just a little extra sweetener at the end of a good season. 3 years away is a lot of growth time for a young and developing team.

Though we will just be entering the same problem as Portland, with all our rookie contracts coming due. Shrug.

[Northwest Roddy]

How does our pick swap with Milwaukee interact with our 2028 pick swap with the Suns?

[nate33]

How does our pick swap with Milwaukee interact with our 2028 pick swap with the Suns?

Think of it as a parallel track.

Basically, we have pick swap rights with both Milwaukee and Phoenix. But in each case another team has higher swap rights.

With the Milwaukee pick, it's a 3-way deal between us, Portland and Milwaukee. Portland first decides whether they want to swap with Milwaukee. Then we decide whether we want to swap our pick with the worst of the POR/MIL pick.

Concurrently, there is another 3-way deal between us, Brooklyn and Phoenix. (Philly is also in the mix but probably not.) In that 3-way, Brooklyn first decides if they want to swap with Phoenix, and then we decide whether we want to swap our pick with the worst of the BRK/PHX pick.

So, in summary, we will opt in on a swap only if both POR and MIL have a worse record than us, or if both BRK and PHX have a worse record than us. I'd say the latter is much more likely than the former.

There are a few wrinkles with that Milwaukee pick. If things break right and Portland misses the playoffs each of the next two years, but makes the playoffs in 2028, then they drop out of the pick swap equation and it's just an optional swap between us and Milwaukee.

[Northwest Roddy]

Awesome, thanks. Very clear. With great good hope, we will be a strong team by 2028.

[DukeLecker]

I still can’t believe Jon Horst got an extension after he made this trade for Kuzma, who looked predictably totally awful in the playoffs. Even if AJ goes on to stink, and the pick ends up trash, getting off of Kuzma is such a win for the Zards.

[bsilver]

I still can’t believe Jon Horst got an extension after he made this trade for Kuzma, who looked predictably totally awful in the playoffs. Even if AJ goes on to stink, and the pick ends up trash, getting off of Kuzma is such a win for the Zards.

I was just lurking on the Bucks forum. Half the comments about last night's game were about the unfortunate (for them) Kuzma trade.
Have to feel bad for their fans. The misguided Lillard trade, Middleton and Lillard injuries, Kuzma trade, and the collapse last night. They probably couldn't compete with the best in the East anyway, but with a healthy Lillard and Middleton, who knows.

[AFM]

Kyle "I feel like I'm an all star" Kuzma

He an all star on the worst dressed bums team

[tontoz]

Kuzma's game really fell off a cliff this year. Not that he was that good in the first place but we should consider ourselves lucky that we were able to get rid of him. Should have traded him last year.