How would you like to see Arenas play?

[doclinkin]

-I look forward to the day where Blatche (or another PF) can step up and displace Jamison at PF so that Jamison can be an instant-offense 6th man at either forward position. I don't think Blatche is good enough yet, but if he makes that next leap, we'll have a pretty solid defensive cast around Arenas with Stevenson, Butler, Blatche and Haywood.

Right, it would be great if Blatche managed a PER of 23 against opposing power forwards and put up the stats or played the defensive equivalent of a 20/10 game night in night out. But right now the only #'s we have on that say that Jamison was the better player, even defensively until Dray gets a long low base when guarding the perimeter (make them have to run all the way around him, giving Dray more time to react/recover from their first step), more strength for the post, and better stamina/footwork/anticipation playing one on one so he doesn't have to reach/foul so much.

And offensively it ain't even a question. Blatche has no go-to move right now, he's still figuring out what kind of player he's supposed to be.

To me a key question for Arenas' best defensive improvement is whether he can play at least as good offense/defense as... Roger Mason.

Looking at the eFG differential of our most-played line-ups (our effective Field Goal % vs the opponents') Maser showed up in 5 of our 7 best. Most of these can be explained away with the idea that if Mase was in the game the opposing back-ups were prob'ly on the floor. But you would expect the same logic applies for Dray, and he only posted in two of those lines, only one of which was an all-scrub line.

But one of the RMjr lines was our 3rd most used line-up, 4 starters plus Mason:

Mase, 'Face', Tuff Juice, Capitawn, Brendan Todd.

The line on that squad was: eFG .531, opponent eFG was .507; team was -7 on total FT attempts, about even in the turnover department (Wiz 1% more TO's than the opponent), rebounding not quite as good as their usual.

Compare with the same line with Arenas instead, early in the year (with fresh legs maybe-- if wounded and paining) and no rhythm on offense:

eFG an awful .447, but opponent only .481; Wiz +18 FT's vs opponent (in 21 fewer minutes) 15% better rebounding and a (better) -1% in turnovers.

Early on, with everyone fresh, Gil spearheaded a solid defense, against starters. 40 minutes a game, with a rusty kneehinge. They just couldn't score except from the line. (Which was a weakness for the Mason line). You have to expect that Gil would turn that around and begin to score _slightly_ better than the Maser.

And with Gil healthy, AD's defense improves since he plays fewer minutes. The primary drawback then being that suddenly Daniels takes the minutes that Roger had played, which, looking at it this way now seems like that much more of a loss. EDIT-- If we lose Mason. Which we prob'ly will.

Mason had a really good year for us. Makes me suspect that maybe no matter the endgame stats, Nick Young won't have a better year for us than Mason. Until he develops. But on the plus side, Youngns size at the 2-guard seems to have a nice effect on lowering opponent eFG% (3 of those top 7 lines in FG% differential) we just turn the ball over more with him in there, prob'ly because he's not where he's supposed to be. He'll get better.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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have you ever seen Gil force a 21 second violation because the point guard found it difficult to bring the ball up the court? One the areas that Gil hurts this teams defense, is the due to fact that there point guard can easily get his the ball into the right position in order to initiate the offense. Its what gil doesn't do that hurts us on defense.

I can categorically guarantee that no one has ever seen Gil force a 21-second violation. Spider-Man couldn't force a 21-second violation.

[WizarDynasty]

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I can categorically guarantee that no one has ever seen Gil force a 21-second violation. Spider-Man couldn't force a 21-second violation.

what about about a 27-second violation?

[TheSecretWeapon]

Stevenson advantage is that he can usually body up an opposing SG because he has the body mass but Deshaun is extremely POOR at challenging shots.

Well, not exactly. In the detailed defensive tracking I did during the first quarter of the season, Deshawn did quite well challenging shots. His real contribution, though was shot prevention. The guy he was defending tended not to shoot the ball because Deshawn was generally in his grill.

The 3pters allowed this season are a result of strategic decisions made by the coaching staff far more than the ability of players to challenge shots. The team clearly decided to give up the 3 to protect the paint. (I do agree that it's absurd to call Stevenson a "great" defender. He's good, but "great" is way too strong.)

Funneling a point guard to center, no matter how you look at it, leads to a collapse in a defense because someone is shifting off their man and creating an opening.

Funneling seems to work for the Spurs, Celtics, Rockets, etc. -- all the better defensive teams. There's a reason for that -- no one can consistently keep quality NBA players from penetrating the defense. Good defensive teams plan for that by having perimeter players try to take away certain things. Force offensive players to the sideline and to the baseline where they can get help. Challenge the three (I did say "good" defensive teams). Prevent the ball from reaching the middle. Asking perimeter defenders to prevent penetration is ridiculous because it cannot be done.

[WizarDynasty]

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Funneling seems to work for the Spurs, Celtics, Rockets, etc. -- all the better defensive teams. There's a reason for that -- no one can consistently keep quality NBA players from penetrating the defense. Good defensive teams plan for that by having perimeter players try to take away certain things. Force offensive players to the sideline and to the baseline where they can get help. Challenge the three (I did say "good" defensive teams). Prevent the ball from reaching the middle. Asking perimeter defenders to prevent penetration is ridiculous because it cannot be done.

Look, all you need to do is look at wizards perimeter defenders and understand that none of our players even have the ability to challenge shots effectively. Our starting positions 1-4 ranked the lowest in the league at blocks/per fouls. There is absolutely no way for the wizards to go anywhere in the playoffs without having at least one player in teh SG,SF starting rotation that can effectively challenge a perimeter shot. Our starting 3 of of stevenson, butler, --did not record a single block in 4 games. That is pathetic and if you think funneling is what "works" for perimeter defense...you are sadly mistaken. the most important aspect of a successful perimeter defense are having players who pose a threat of blocking a shot on the perimeter. this is what causes a player to miss. When you have a player that can effectively block a shot..it forces the offensive player to adjust his shot in order to prevent his shot from being blocked...and this adjustment is what effectively decreases the perimeter field goal percentage. AD is the only player capable of blocking a perimeter shot so he is probably the reason we are not absolutely the worst perimeter team. There is no way the wizards go anywhere with a combination of butler, stevenson, and Jamison starting. now if Young is starting...he would at least fit the minimum requirment of having a perimeter player capable of challenging the three.
Secondly Wizards rank lowest in allowing opponents nearly 23 assist per game...the best teams are in the high 18-19. Why because..they all have a perimeter player that can challenge the wide open 3 that results from initial breakdown of a defense from penetration. An assist occurs because tthe 3 pointer was actually made from the kick out. the difference between wiz and good defensive team is the result...of a perimeter shot blocker altering the shot..where as the wizards have no such player on the perimeter in there starting five.

All you need to to do is look at SG/SF blocks/Foul--and you will see the best perimeter defenders. Then look at allowed assist per game. when you look at top 25 shooting guards in league for blocks/fouls--not one wizard..look at top small forward in league for blocks/fouls--no one wizards--look at top 25 powerforwards blocks/fouls--not one wizards. all decent to top playoffs teams have at least one starting player in the top 25. That is pathetic and all hope for wizards ever going anywhere poor perimeter 3 tandem of stevenson, Butler, and jamison is fantasy only. Any one that ever believes these players will take us anywhere deserves to be body slammed in a tub of old cow droppings..and you know who are.

Now a good sign was that in 2006--Arenas recorded .67 blocks per 48 minutes which was unbelievable. Caron Butler also showed outstanding defense with .67/blocks per 48 minutes which indicates that they posed threats to blocking shots. This year in playoffs Caron dropped to .17 blocks per 48 minutes--absolutely horrendous--How many blocks did our best defender stevenson average per 48 minutes in playoffs..well u can guess.

How many blocks per 48 minutes did we from our starting PF--Jamison..a respectable 1.63 but we all know that these were definitely not perimeter related but respectable. However, for perimeter defense gilberts and carons .67 blocks per game showed significant applied defense to perimeter shots...its possible that caron injury caused a significant drop in defense but it appears that wizards philosophy has reduced the defensive intensity that caron displayed in his first year. This can also be said of Arenas. Both players have demonstrated significant drops in defensive perimeter stats.
So the first plan on any championship run for the wizards is having a player in the SF/SG spot that poses a significant risk to blocking a 3pt attempt. One of the signs that a player is effective..is that he actually blocks a shot a decent amount of times when he challenges a shot. the fact that deshaun did not a block a single means that a defender isn't worried about deshaun blocking his shot and thus no worrying when seeing deshaun charging toward him to challenge his shot. If he knows that this supposed good defender could block anyone elses shot in the league...why should I worry about him blocking my shot and his confidence increases and wizards rank toward the bottom because 3pts don't fear their shots will be blocked with our two starting perimeter defenders guarding them...aka butler and stevenson two of the shot blocking starting defenders in the league..especially on a suppose playoff team aiming to be a contender.

[miller31time]

TSW, what do you think the coaching staff's reasoning is for the "protecting the paint" strategy? Why do they seem to value the 2-point shot more than the 3pt shot? Do they know that we broke an NBA record for 3-pointers allowed?

If they're aware of that (the record-setting 3pt defense futility) and keep the same strategy, then I'd have to question if they're capable of teaching defense to the players.....then again, if they don't realize that, I'd also have to question them...

[TheSecretWeapon]

Dynasty: I'm consistently impressed with how much wrong information you can jam into a single post. The "funneling" strategy you're deriding is exactly what works. It's been working for quite a while -- the first formal mention I've seen of it was an article written by Larry Brown for a coaching journal back in the 80s. Funneling perimeter defenders is the basis for the Spurs defense (among the top 3 defensive teams every year for the past decade). It was the basis for the defense played by the Pistons team (coached by Larry Brown) that won the NBA title a few years ago. It's the basic defensive strategy for each of the top defensive teams over the past decade or so.

The defensive strategy is (as Larry Brown described it) to turn stand-still shooters into drivers (running guys off the three-point line), and to force drivers into specific spots on the floor where a teammate can help. This has the effect of limiting the number of open looks from the perimeter, while having a greater proportion of shots defended by tall defenders, who are more likely to force misses. Which, basically describes the Spurs defense. But, I'm sure Popovich, Larry Brown, Hank Egan, Rick Carlisle, Jeff Van Gundy, Scott Skiles will be distressed to learn they're "sadly mistaken" in their approach to defensive basketball.

You contend that the most important part of playing perimeter defense is being able to block shots on the perimeter. Please tell me who the top perimeter shot blocker has been on the Spurs in the past decade. I'll save you some time -- there isn't one. It's not Ginobili, it's not Parker, it's not Bowen. They don't have one. That's because blocking shots on the perimeter isn't very important -- getting a hand in the shooter's face is the most important part of making opponents miss on the perimeter.

A piece of friendly advice -- next time you're thinking about elevating a stat to an exalted level of importance, visit www.basketball-reference.com and do a little research to see if what you're thinking is accurate. Or present it as a question, and someone else will almost surely be happy to analyze it.

[TheSecretWeapon]

TSW, what do you think the coaching staff's reasoning is for the "protecting the paint" strategy? Why do they seem to value the 2-point shot more than the 3pt shot? Do they know that we broke an NBA record for 3-pointers allowed?

If they're aware of that (the record-setting 3pt defense futility) and keep the same strategy, then I'd have to question if they're capable of teaching defense to the players.....then again, if they don't realize that, I'd also have to question them...

I don't know anything on this because I haven't been over there or talked to the coaches since Ayers came on board. My guess is that the coaching staff thought that they were giving up too many layups and dunks, and they wanted to make it tougher for teams to get to the rim. So they implemented a scheme that's designed to do that.

And, they actually did have a little bit of success changing the mix. In 06-07, 67% of opponent FGA were jumpers -- this season, they raised that to 69%. Not a big change, but it was an additional 131 shots (about 1.6 per game) that were jumpers instead of shots in the paint.

They also reduced opponent efg a little in the paint. This season, the paint efg was .654 -- down from .661 last season, which was down from .687 in 05-06. Opponent efg on jumpers outside the paint was .450 both this season and last season.

In terms of the math, it's a good idea to shut down the lane as a first priority. But, it needs to be done in a way that a) actually shuts down the lane; and b) doesn't just abandon the jumper. Compare with the Spurs, for example -- 70% of shots against the Spurs were jumpers this season (actually up from previous seasons), but the efg on jumpers was just .429. Shots in the paint were converted at .597 -- significantly better than what the Wiz defense did in both categories. And the Spurs weren't as good this past season as they were in previous years. The Wiz did better defending the paint this year, but still weren't good. And they were also bad at defending the perimeter.

[WizarDynasty]

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I don't know anything on this because I haven't been over there or talked to the coaches since Ayers came on board. My guess is that the coaching staff thought that they were giving up too many layups and dunks, and they wanted to make it tougher for teams to get to the rim. So they implemented a scheme that's designed to do that.

And, they actually did have a little bit of success changing the mix. In 06-07, 67% of opponent FGA were jumpers -- this season, they raised that to 69%. Not a big change, but it was an additional 131 shots (about 1.6 per game) that were jumpers instead of shots in the paint.

They also reduced opponent efg a little in the paint. This season, the paint efg was .654 -- down from .661 last season, which was down from .687 in 05-06. Opponent efg on jumpers outside the paint was .450 both this season and last season.

In terms of the math, it's a good idea to shut down the lane as a first priority. But, it needs to be done in a way that a) actually shuts down the lane; and b) doesn't just abandon the jumper. Compare with the Spurs, for example -- 70% of shots against the Spurs were jumpers this season (actually up from previous seasons), but the efg on jumpers was just .429. Shots in the paint were converted at .597 -- significantly better than what the Wiz defense did in both categories. And the Spurs weren't as good this past season as they were in previous years. The Wiz did better defending the paint this year, but still weren't good. And they were also bad at defending the perimeter.

Just to add on..spurs have bruce bowen a small forward that ranks pretty high among SF in his blocks/foul ratio. Wizards have no one ranked in top 25 at sf or sg position when it comes to blocked/foul ratio.

[LyricalRico]

Dynasty: I'm consistently impressed with how much wrong information you can jam into a single post.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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Just to add on..spurs have bruce bowen a small forward that ranks pretty high among SF in his blocks/foul ratio. Wizards have no one ranked in top 25 at sf or sg position when it comes to blocked/foul ratio.

Wrong again. This past season, Bowen ranked 81st among perimeter defenders who played at least 500 total minutes in blocks/foul ratio. He wasn't even the top ranked Bowen. Bruce Bowen and Caron Butler had nearly identical blocks/foul ratios. I don't have time to break it down specifically to SFs, but Bowen won't rank high there either.

[WizarDynasty]

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Block to foul ratio for Playoff SF 2007-2008 as of May 20 2008. here is your wrong info.

1 Josh Childress, ATL 7 29.4 5 7 0.71 1.17 0.71
2 LeBron James, CLE 13 42.5 17 33 1.31 1.48 0.52
3 Jamario Moon, TOR 5 20.6 3 6 0.60 1.40 0.50
4 Andrei Kirilenko, UTH 12 32.3 20 46 1.67 2.48 0.43
5 Kyle Korver, UTH 12 21.7 8 28 0.67 1.48 0.29
Devean George, DAL 5 12.6 2 7 0.40 1.52 0.29
7 Shane Battier, HOU 6 41.0 5 19 0.83 0.98 0.26
8 Tayshaun Prince, DET 12 39.6 4 18 0.33 0.40 0.22
9 Bruce Bowen, SAS 12 27.9 5 25 0.42 0.72 0.20
Josh Howard, DAL 5 34.0 2 10 0.40 0.56 0.20
11 James Posey, BOS 15 21.5 6 31 0.40 0.89 0.19
12 Michael Finley, SAS 12 24.8 3 21 0.25 0.48 0.14
Marvin Williams, ATL 7 28.4 3 21 0.43 0.72 0.14
14 Julian Wright, NOR 11 11.9 1 8 0.09 0.37 0.13
15 Ime Udoka, SAS 12 14.9 2 17 0.17 0.54 0.12
16 Bonzi Wells, NOR 12 14.3 3 26 0.25 0.84 0.12
17 Matt Harpring, UTH 12 17.4 4 35 0.33 0.92 0.11
18 Luke Walton, LAL 10 20.5 3 30 0.30 0.70 0.10
19 Andre Iguodala, PHI 6 39.0 1 11 0.17 0.21 0.09
20 Carmelo Anthony, DEN 4 36.8 1 17 0.25 0.33 0.06
21 Hedo Turkoglu, ORL 10 40.0 2 35 0.20 0.24 0.06
22 Peja Stojakovic, NOR 12 37.9 1 19 0.08 0.11 0.05
Caron Butler, WAS 6 41.0 1 19 0.17 0.20 0.05

[WizarDynasty]

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Here are you blocks per game for the Playoffs for Small Forwards. This list pretty much captures the best perimeter defenders in the league when it comes to contesting perimeter shots. I will first present SF and then SG and you will see that teams with lowest allowed 3 pt percentage also have the players with the highest blocks per game and blocks per foul at the sg and sf positions. the point of this information to connect perimeter defense with an objective stat--shot blocking per 48 minutes limited to only SF and SG..and Blocks/Fouls--because if you blocked shots but foul alot..both categories negate each other. The best perimeter defenders also have player who rank highly in blocks per game because they challenge the 3 successfully and there challenge actually results in a block shot some of the time.
If your premise is that our SG is good at challenging shots, then we would expect for him to A actually block a shot and b decrease the opponents field goal percentage. My conclusion is, if the wizards want to improve their perimeter defense..funneling players to haywood is not the solution. the solution is to have a starting sg, sf that demonstrates that he can alter shots. He demonstrates this ability by actually blocking shots. Something the best perimeter players..who also happen to have lower than normal 3pt percentage allows demonstrate. I would like my critics to show me a cases where a team ranks in top 5 in 3 percentages allowed and but does not have a player ranked in top
RNK NAME GP MPG BLK PF BLKPG BLKP48M BLK/PF
1 Andrei Kirilenko, UTH 12 32.3 20 46 1.67 2.48 0.43
2 LeBron James, CLE 13 42.5 17 33 1.31 1.48 0.52
3 Shane Battier, HOU 6 41.0 5 19 0.83 0.98 0.26
4 Josh Childress, ATL 7 29.4 5 7 0.71 1.17 0.71
5 Kyle Korver, UTH 12 21.7 8 28 0.67 1.48 0.29
6 Jamario Moon, TOR 5 20.6 3 6 0.60 1.40 0.50
7 Marvin Williams, ATL 7 28.4 3 21 0.43 0.72 0.14
8 Bruce Bowen, SAS 12 27.9 5 25 0.42 0.72 0.20
9 James Posey, BOS 15 21.5 6 31 0.40 0.89 0.19
Devean George, DAL 5 12.6 2 7 0.40 1.52 0.29
Josh Howard, DAL 5 34.0 2 10 0.40 0.56 0.20
12 Matt Harpring, UTH 12 17.4 4 35 0.33 0.92 0.11
Tayshaun Prince, DET 12 39.6 4 18 0.33 0.40 0.22
14 Luke Walton, LAL 10 20.5 3 30 0.30 0.70 0.10
15 Michael Finley, SAS 12 24.8 3 21 0.25 0.48 0.14
Bonzi Wells, NOR 12 14.3 3 26 0.25 0.84 0.12
Carmelo Anthony, DEN 4 36.8 1 17 0.25 0.33 0.06
18 Hedo Turkoglu, ORL 10 40.0 2 35 0.20 0.24 0.06
19 Ime Udoka, SAS 12 14.9 2 17 0.17 0.54 0.12
Caron Butler, WAS 6 41.0 1 19 0.17 0.20 0.05
Andre Iguodala, PHI 6 39.0 1 11 0.17 0.21 0.09
22 Paul Pierce, BOS 15 36.5 2 49 0.13 0.18 0.04
23 Julian Wright, NOR 11 11.9 1 8 0.09 0.37 0.13
24 Peja Stojakovic, NOR 12 37.9 1 19 0.08 0.11 0.05
25 Wally Szczerbiak, CLE 13 28.8 1 32 0.08 0.13 0.03

Now for an analysis of Starting playoff SG. Again, my original Hypothesis is that a team has either a Starting SG or Starting SF
that ranks highly in shots blocked per 48 minutes. A starting position statisfies minimum playing time. Willie Green and Rodney Carney are not starters by teh way
RNK NAME GP MPG BLK PF BLKPG BLKP48M BLK/PF
1 Willie Green, PHI 6 23.8 4 19 0.67 1.34 0.21
2 Rodney Carney, PHI 6 14.0 2 9 0.33 1.14 0.22
3 Tracy McGrady, HOU 6 41.3 5 8 0.83 0.97 0.63
4 Kobe Bryant, LAL 10 40.5 7 33 0.70 0.83 0.21
5 Delonte West, CLE 13 34.8 6 40 0.46 0.64 0.15
6 Ronnie Brewer, UTH 12 25.5 4 29 0.33 0.63 0.14
7 Morris Peterson, NOR 12 23.3 3 29 0.25 0.52 0.10
8 Anthony Parker, TOR 5 39.0 2 12 0.40 0.49 0.17
Sasha Vujacic, LAL 10 19.5 2 19 0.20 0.49 0.11
10 Brent Barry, SAS 11 11.5 1 12 0.09 0.38 0.08
11 Manu Ginobili, SAS 12 33.3 3 31 0.25 0.36 0.10
12 Ray Allen, BOS 15 37.6 4 32 0.27 0.34 0.13
13 Allen Iverson, DEN 4 39.5 1 3 0.25 0.30 0.33
14 Raja Bell, PHO 5 42.8 1 19 0.20 0.22 0.05
15 Richard Hamilton, DET 12 37.8 2 32 0.17 0.21 0.06
16 Maurice Evans, ORL 10 28.3 1 12 0.10 0.17 0.08

FG PCT. 3PT PCT.

TEAM OWN OPP OWN OPP
Cleveland 41.95 42.56 0.35 0.3
LA Lakers 48.75 43.65 0.4 0.31
Toronto 43.46 47.19 0.35 0.32
Boston 44.86 41.07 0.34 0.32
Orlando 46.95 42.93 0.36 0.33
Utah 44.5 44.89 0.35 0.34
Detroit 45.52 44.6 0.34 0.34
San Antonio 45.37 45.39 0.39 0.36
Houston 40.89 44.71 0.29 0.36
Phoenix 46.12 46.71 0.34 0.37
New Orleans 46.4 42.52 0.41 0.38
Washington 42.57 43.1 0.31 0.38
Atlanta 41.08 45.98 0.32 0.38
Philadelphia 41.74 48.78 0.23 0.38
Denver 42.66 48.29 0.25 0.4
Dallas 40.1 48.53 0.35 0.46

the bold indicates what each playoff team allowed for their opponents 3pt field goal percentage. This number is significant because playoffs games are weight heavier than regular season. Me as fan could care less how a player performs in the regular season, when what really matters is how a player performs in clutch playoff games that actually matter. This statistic tells how each playoffs perimeter defenders performed when games actually matter. and close analysis, one should notice that there is a strong correlation between teams with low 3pt percentage completions and you will also see they have at least a starting sg or sf that ranks in the top percentile when in comes to blocks per 48 minutes.

the wizards are one the worst and more importantly don't have a starting sg or sf that ranks highly in blocks per game at their respective position, and as a result...ranks lowest in 3pt percentage allowed. this problem will not be solved by changing the defensive scheme as some of my naive counter parts suggests, rather it is an inherit flaw of the player at the his particular starting position. I don't see how the coaches are going to improve a wing players shot blocking ability.

As with the comment about Kyle Korver, he demonstrated in clutch playoff time to alternate 9 shots for sure so clearly he is demonstrated that in clutch time when it mattered most, he can decrease the opposing teams perimeter field goal percentage and effectively challenge a shot even if he doesn't actually block for his opponents knows taht he has demonstrated on previous occassions that he could in fact block their shot. This forces the offensive player to respect and as result adjust his shot leading to lower field gold percentage.
Our players in fact, don't demonstrate this and lose the battle in actually altering shots against their playoff counter parts at respective positions as well as lose the psychological advantage of instill fear on an offensive opponents worry that his shot will be block before the shot is even released. the term soft on defense does not capture the added liability of inability to contest and alter 3 pt shot in playoff. We can look at regular season and I have strong feeling that we will discover a similar trend.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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Block to foul ratio for Playoff SF 2007-2008 as of May 20 2008. here is your wrong info.

1 Josh Childress, ATL 7 29.4 5 7 0.71 1.17 0.71
2 LeBron James, CLE 13 42.5 17 33 1.31 1.48 0.52
3 Jamario Moon, TOR 5 20.6 3 6 0.60 1.40 0.50
4 Andrei Kirilenko, UTH 12 32.3 20 46 1.67 2.48 0.43
5 Kyle Korver, UTH 12 21.7 8 28 0.67 1.48 0.29
Devean George, DAL 5 12.6 2 7 0.40 1.52 0.29
7 Shane Battier, HOU 6 41.0 5 19 0.83 0.98 0.26
8 Tayshaun Prince, DET 12 39.6 4 18 0.33 0.40 0.22
9 Bruce Bowen, SAS 12 27.9 5 25 0.42 0.72 0.20
Josh Howard, DAL 5 34.0 2 10 0.40 0.56 0.20
11 James Posey, BOS 15 21.5 6 31 0.40 0.89 0.19
12 Michael Finley, SAS 12 24.8 3 21 0.25 0.48 0.14
Marvin Williams, ATL 7 28.4 3 21 0.43 0.72 0.14
14 Julian Wright, NOR 11 11.9 1 8 0.09 0.37 0.13
15 Ime Udoka, SAS 12 14.9 2 17 0.17 0.54 0.12
16 Bonzi Wells, NOR 12 14.3 3 26 0.25 0.84 0.12
17 Matt Harpring, UTH 12 17.4 4 35 0.33 0.92 0.11
18 Luke Walton, LAL 10 20.5 3 30 0.30 0.70 0.10
19 Andre Iguodala, PHI 6 39.0 1 11 0.17 0.21 0.09
20 Carmelo Anthony, DEN 4 36.8 1 17 0.25 0.33 0.06
21 Hedo Turkoglu, ORL 10 40.0 2 35 0.20 0.24 0.06
22 Peja Stojakovic, NOR 12 37.9 1 19 0.08 0.11 0.05
Caron Butler, WAS 6 41.0 1 19 0.17 0.20 0.05

Rule of thumb -- big sample size better than small sample size. Over the course of an entire season, and compared to an entire league, Bowen has a thoroughly unimpressive blocks/fouls ratio. It's about the same as Caron Butler's. In a much smaller sample size, compared to a much smaller group of players, he still ranks only 9th.

Just to see, I decided to look at how valuable this blocks/pf stat might be in determining who does best at defending perimeter shots. I ran a correlation on blk/pf and opponent 3pt%. As I anticipated, the correlation was a -0.097 -- in other words there's no relationship between the two numbers. Suggesting that blk/pf is NOT a good indicator of who defends well on the perimeter.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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Here are you blocks per game for the Playoffs for Small Forwards. This list pretty much captures the best perimeter defenders in the league when it comes to contesting perimeter shots.

1 Andrei Kirilenko, UTH 12 32.3 20 46 1.67 2.48 0.43
2 LeBron James, CLE 13 42.5 17 33 1.31 1.48 0.52
3 Shane Battier, HOU 6 41.0 5 19 0.83 0.98 0.26
4 Josh Childress, ATL 7 29.4 5 7 0.71 1.17 0.71
5 Kyle Korver, UTH 12 21.7 8 28 0.67 1.48 0.29
6 Jamario Moon, TOR 5 20.6 3 6 0.60 1.40 0.50
7 Marvin Williams, ATL 7 28.4 3 21 0.43 0.72 0.14
8 Bruce Bowen, SAS 12 27.9 5 25 0.42 0.72 0.20
9 James Posey, BOS 15 21.5 6 31 0.40 0.89 0.19
Devean George, DAL 5 12.6 2 7 0.40 1.52 0.29
Josh Howard, DAL 5 34.0 2 10 0.40 0.56 0.20
12 Matt Harpring, UTH 12 17.4 4 35 0.33 0.92 0.11
Tayshaun Prince, DET 12 39.6 4 18 0.33 0.40 0.22
14 Luke Walton, LAL 10 20.5 3 30 0.30 0.70 0.10
15 Michael Finley, SAS 12 24.8 3 21 0.25 0.48 0.14
Bonzi Wells, NOR 12 14.3 3 26 0.25 0.84 0.12
Carmelo Anthony, DEN 4 36.8 1 17 0.25 0.33 0.06
18 Hedo Turkoglu, ORL 10 40.0 2 35 0.20 0.24 0.06
19 Ime Udoka, SAS 12 14.9 2 17 0.17 0.54 0.12
Caron Butler, WAS 6 41.0 1 19 [/b]0.17 [b] 0.20 0.05
Andre Iguodala, PHI 6 39.0 1 11 0.17 0.21 0.09
22 Paul Pierce, BOS 15 36.5 2 49 0.13 0.18 0.04
23 Julian Wright, NOR 11 11.9 1 8 0.09 0.37 0.13
24 Peja Stojakovic, NOR 12 37.9 1 19 0.08 0.11 0.05
25 Wally Szczerbiak, CLE 13 28.8 1 32 0.08 0.13 0.03

So, Kyle Korver blocks more shots than Bruce Bowen, and has more blocks per foul. By your standard, this must mean that Kyle Korver is better at defending perimeter shots than Bruce Bowen. Is that your contention?

[WizarDynasty]

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So, Kyle Korver blocks more shots than Bruce Bowen, and has more blocks per foul. By your standard, this must mean that Kyle Korver is better at defending perimeter shots than Bruce Bowen. Is that your contention?

He has demonstrated in playoff time to be better than bruce bowen at challenging perimeter shots a very important aspect of defense that wizard perimeter players failed to demonstrate...which also correlates strongly with their allowed 3pt percentage for opponents as team and fits in with my initial hypothesis that you can go ahead and review to clarified cobwebs that might exist.
Hopefully some actual numbers from ESPN can smack some sense into number interpretation for relative Playoff performance comparing starting players at the same position.

[Ed Wood]

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He has demonstrated in playoff time to be better than bruce bowen at challenging perimeter shots a very important aspect of defense that wizard perimeter players failed to demonstrate...which also correlates strongly with their allowed 3pt percentage for opponents as team and fits in with my initial hypothesis that you can go ahead and review to clarified cobwebs that might exist.
Hopefully some actual numbers from ESPN can smack some sense into number interpretation for relative Playoff performance comparing starting players at the same position.

You're a few standard deviations removed from empirical proof right now. Presumably you realize that the Korver question was a litmus test for the cogence of your argument. To recap: a hypothesis that must lead to the conclusion that Ashton can "D" it has more trouble with internal validity than I do, and have you seen me post lately?

Blocks on the perimeter are pretty neat, make the guy who took the shot feel pretty small, but that doesn't mean they have much defensive value. Hell, steals don't have much defensive value (or I should say they don't correlate with defensive efficiency) and that's taking a possession away from the other team. Sure contesting perimeter shots is probably pretty good policy if you want to hold your opponent under a buck forty on a regular basis, but that's not even close to the same thing, statistically.

[TheSecretWeapon]

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He has demonstrated in playoff time to be better than bruce bowen at challenging perimeter shots a very important aspect of defense that wizard perimeter players failed to demonstrate...which also correlates strongly with their allowed 3pt percentage for opponents as team and fits in with my initial hypothesis that you can go ahead and review to clarified cobwebs that might exist.
Hopefully some actual numbers from ESPN can smack some sense into number interpretation for relative Playoff performance comparing starting players at the same position.

Challenging shots does lower opponent shooting percentage. Blocked shots does not necessarily mean a guy is actually challenging more shots. For example, when I was tracking the Wizards defense in 05-06, Etan blocked slightly more shots per minute than did Haywood. But tracking showed that Haywood was a much more active defender -- involved in defending more than 4 additional shots per 48 minutes in the games I tracked that season (a difference of about 19%).

It is possible that perimeter blocks do correlate with lower opponent 3pt percentage, but it's impossible to do this correlation because there isn't a stat for perimeter blocks -- all blocks are lumped together into a single category.

If you're genuinely interested in meaningful numbers for the NBA, I highly recommend reading Dean Oliver's book "Basketball On Paper," one of John Hollinger's books, and perhaps David Berri's "Wages of Wins." You could also join the Association for Professional Basketball Research (I'm a member, and it's free) or participate in the message board at APBRmetrics -- the APBR board dedicated specifically to statistical analysis.

Here's a link to a page full of links about the use of advanced stats in basketball -- http://www.countthebasket.com/statlinks.htm.

[WizarDynasty]

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Challenging shots does lower opponent shooting percentage. Blocked shots does not necessarily mean a guy is actually challenging more shots. For example, when I was tracking the Wizards defense in 05-06, Etan blocked slightly more shots per minute than did Haywood. But tracking showed that Haywood was a much more active defender -- involved in defending more than 4 additional shots per 48 minutes in the games I tracked that season (a difference of about 19%).

It is possible that perimeter blocks do correlate with lower opponent 3pt percentage, but it's impossible to do this correlation because there isn't a stat for perimeter blocks -- all blocks are lumped together into a single category.

If you're genuinely interested in meaningful numbers for the NBA, I highly recommend reading Dean Oliver's book "Basketball On Paper," one of John Hollinger's books, and perhaps David Berri's "Wages of Wins." You could also join the Association for Professional Basketball Research (I'm a member, and it's free) or participate in the message board at APBRmetrics -- the APBR board dedicated specifically to statistical analysis.

Here's a link to a page full of links about the use of advanced stats in basketball -- http://www.countthebasket.com/statlinks.htm.

Blocked shots for a perimeter player indicates that not only does he put himself in a successful position to challenge a shot but also that he drop the percentage of the shot going into the basket to absolute zero. the entire point behind challenging a shot is decreasing field goal percentage. Often times a player makes an attempt to block a shot but is unsuccessful due to an alteration by the offensive player. What is most important is understanding that NBA players are professionals at shooting and the un natural element is a hand in their face that literally deflects their shot. The closer a defensive player is to actually blocking a shot, the more adjustment an offensive player must make in order to prevent this. The greater his adjustment, the lower his field goal percentage. Apparently your statistics have failed to uncovered this insight that comes from actually playing on both sides.
A perimeter player that has over riden an offensive players adjustment to successfully block a shot..has demonstrated overcoming the an offensive players adjustment.
The ability to over ride an offensive players shot adjustment to a defender shot challenge is what Wizard's perimeter player failed to demonstrate in the playoffs. the best shooter field goal percentage will drop substantially if he is forced to greatly alter his normal shooting mechanics to prevent a block. But this adjustment can only be forced when a player successful puts his hand..and thus body in a position to challenge the shot on the perimeter.
SG and SF play the majority of their defense on the perimeter and we can make a qualified deductions that the majority of their blocked shots don't occur in the post..and thus the perimeter. Blocking the shot on the perimeter takes completely different skills than blocking a shot in the paint. When a perimeter player such as a shooting guard or even a small forward demonstrates blocks..we can assume that more times than not..the blocked occurred on the perimeter and the player successfully overcame a shooters adjustment to deny his shot being blocked.
Again, it takes an ability to block a shot on the perimeter and many players...wizards starting sg and sf failed to show this ability in the most important games of the season relative to their starting counterparts on top defensive play off teams.
Your stats geeks will fail to see this relationship due to their lack of playing experience on both sides. No number is going to broadcast this relationship but actual playing experience makes this relationship apparent .

so you ask..what are the underpinnings behind a great defensive player. --non-Preparation. Why was Jared our best defender. Because he was physical freak on defense. How often can opposing team prepare for playing against 6'11 player on perimeter. Stevenson is 6'5--very easy for an offensive player to practice against his physical dimension with a player on his on team during practice and thus refine his shooting mechanics. How often can that same player find a player with jared physical attributes to play against in real time on the perimeter. EAch night in NBA, players have different match up and caron and stevenson both are norm in terms of physical dimensions for their respective positions. A player like lebron on the perimeter with his wingspan, or prince with his wingspan--are abnormal and there is not enough time for an offensive player to adjust his shooting mechanics to make up for extended wingspan. If you are use to 6'6-with 6'9 wingspan player charging you on a nightly basis, your shooting mechanics adjust. Now if you throw in '610 player with 7'2 4 nights straight in a two week time span...that two weeks is not enough time for you reprogram your brain and your muscle coordination to adjust to those physical dimension. Sure if you had maybe two months you could do it..

but only two weeks preparation time to adjust your mechanics to alonger player is surely going to drop your field goal percentage.
The more abnormal a player is on defense the longer it will take for a shooter to adjust their mechanics and as result..decrease shooting percentage. Caron is definitely not use to go up against the physical dimension of Lebron each night..and he suffered when trying to adjust his game in such a short period. Same can be said for Arenas who is abnormal freak on offense at the point guard position. Point guards rarely play against a player with his dimensions so they usually aren't prepared to play against him 7 games straight in the playoffs.

So you have your regular season--vs playoff matchup adjustments and championship team has to be built with this in my mind.
Granted it is very difficult at times to even make the playoffs let alone build your team to exploit these short time gap adjustment in 7 game series but this is what separates a championship contender with a 1st round playoff team and obviously only the most brilliant of basketball minds can construct such a team in such a competitive free agency environment. For example..Posey and Horry..both have physical dimensions and playoff attributes that allow them to match up easily even with physical freaks. 6'8 posey on perimeter--bowen 6'7--robert horry 6'10 playing SF.
There versatily to match up in 7 game series is the key reducing time frame for adjusting to opposing teams personnel abnormalities. You definitely need a 6'8 SF defensive star. and usually a powerforward that can play perimeter and create mismatch problems but not a huge liability on defense. Posey was with Miami, and then Boston..tayshaun on detroit...robert horry when he was with blazers, lakers, and spurs...even spurs use of 6'8 stephen jackson. You always need 6'7 or greater with along wingspan to cover perimeter and strong enough to hold post position.

[nate33]

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Blocked shots for a perimeter player indicates that not only does he put himself in a successful position to challenge a shot but also that he drop the percentage of the shot going into the basket to absolute zero. the entire point behind challenging a shot is decreasing field goal percentage. Often times a player makes an attempt to block a shot but is unsuccessful due to an alteration by the offensive player. What is most important is understanding that NBA players are professionals at shooting and the un natural element is a hand in their face that literally deflects their shot. The closer a defensive player is to actually blocking a shot, the more adjustment an offensive player must make in order to prevent this. The greater his adjustment, the lower his field goal percentage. Apparently your statistics have failed to uncovered this insight that comes from actually playing on both sides. A perimeter player that has over riden an offensive players adjustment to successfully block a shot..has demonstrated overcoming the an offensive players adjustment.
The ability to over ride an offensive players shot adjustment to a defender shot challenge is what Wizard's perimeter player failed to demonstrate in the playoffs. the best shooter field goal percentage will drop substantially if he is forced to greatly alter his normal shooting mechanics to prevent a block. But this adjustment can only be forced when a player successful puts his hand..and thus body in a position to challenge the shot on the perimeter.
SG and SF play the majority of their defense on the perimeter and we can make a qualified deductions that the majority of their blocked shots don't occur in the post..and thus the perimeter. Blocking the shot on the perimeter takes completely different skills than blocking a shot in the paint. When a perimeter player such as a shooting guard or even a small forward demonstrates blocks..we can assume that more times than not..the blocked occurred on the perimeter and the player successfully overcame a shooters adjustment to deny his shot being blocked.
Again, it takes an ability to block a shot on the perimeter and many players...wizards starting sg and sf failed to show this ability in the most important games of the season relative to their starting counterparts on top defensive play off teams.
Your stats geeks will fail to see this relationship due to their lack of playing experience on both sides. No number is going to broadcast this relationship but actual playing experience makes this relationship apparent .

Again, you are stating, pure unsubstantiated opinion as fact. You have presented no evidence whatsoever to support the notion that a perimeter player who averages a high number of blocked shots is effective at reducing 3-point percentage. You just repeat it over and over again in a vain hope that repetition will make it true.

Has the thought ever occurred to you that the perimeter defender who is always flying around going after blocked shots is highly susceptable to ball fakes and is not in position to recover, box out, or rotate? Since you are such an experienced ball player, I would have hoped that you would have considered this. Apparantely you have not.

Compare the blocks per minute of players in their 1st and 2nd season versus how they fare in their 4th or 5th season. Almost without exception, rookies block more shots and get more steals per minute. But in general, rookies are lousy defenders relative to 5th-year vets. How can this be? The simple answer is that players who generate a lot of steals and blocks often do so at the expense of playing good position defense within a team concept.