Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[Eli Babak]

I am torn about continuing to follow the team, a hellish and very real possibility is that we are facing a complete rebuild with Ernie at the helm for the next 5-6 years, our own Groundhog Day.

Ted: "There's no way you can blame Ernie for the bad luck with Wall's injury. Obviously, Ernie deserves to lead the rebuild. Where did I leave my copy of the 10-point plan?"

What I have learned about a rebuild to date: A 10 point plan. A Washington Capitals perspective (let's think from Wiz perspective):

1. Ask yourself the big question: "Can this team--as constructed--ever win a championship?" If the answer is yes -- stay the course and try to find the right formula -- if the answer is no, then plan to rebuild. Don't fake it--really do the analytics and be brutally honest. Once you have your answer, develop the game plan to try to REALLY win a championship. Always run away from experts that say, "We are just one player away." Recognize there is no easy and fast systemic fix. It will be a bumpy ride--have confidence in the plan--"trust and verify: the progress -- but don't deviate from the plan."

Answer: no. So, what are you going to do, Ted?

2. Once you make the decision to rebuild--be transparent. Articulate the plan and sell it loudly and proudly to all constituencies, the media, the organization, the fans, your partners, family and anyone who will listen. Agree to what makes for a successful rebuild--in our case it is "a great young team with upside that can make the playoffs for a decade and win a Stanley Cup or two."

Start with firing Grunfeld.

3. Once you decide to rebuild--bring the house down to the foundation--be consistent with your plan--and with your asks--we always sought to get "a pick and a prospect" in all of our trades. We believed that volume would yield better results than precision. We decided to trade multiple stars at their prime or peak to get a large volume of young players. Young players will get better as they age, so you have built in upside. Youngsters push vets to play better to keep their jobs, and they stay healthier, and they are more fun--less jaded by pro sports.

At least you're saying the right things.

4. Commit to building around the draft. Invest in scouting, development, and a system. Articulate that system and stay with it so that all players feel comfortable-- know the language-- know what is expected of them-- read the Oriole Way*. It worked and it is a great tutorial. Draft players that fit the system, not the best player. Draft the best player for the system. Don't deviate or get seduced by agents, media demands, or by just stats or hype. Envision how this player will slide into your system.

I haven't followed the Caps because hockey sucks but why you didn't apply this for the Wizards? 2015 playoffs were fun but after that it's been mostly just bad decisions.

5. Be patient with young players-- throw them in the pool to see if they can swim. Believe in them. Show them loyalty. Re-sign the best young players to long term high priced deals. Show the players you are very loyal to them as compared to free agents who achieved highly for another team. Teach them. Celebrate their successes. Use failures as a way to teach and improve. Coaches must be tough but kind to build confidence.

Let's trade Oubre for Ariza. Let's give Wall a supermax asap. Let's hire a coach to a big 5y contract.

6. Make sure the GM, coach, owner and business folks are on the EXACT same page as to deliverables, metrics of success, ultimate goal, process and measured outcomes. Always meet to discuss analytics and don't be afraid of the truth that the numbers reveal. Manage to outcomes. Manage to let the GM and coach NOT be afraid of taking risks, and make sure there are no surprises. Over communicate. Act like an ethnic family--battle around the dinner table--never in public. Be tight as a team. Protect and enhance each other. Let the right people do their jobs.

:D Jesus.

7. No jerks allowed. Implement a no jerk policy. Draft and develop and keep high character people. Team chemistry is vital to success. Make sure the best and highest paid players are coachable, show respect to the system, want to be in the city, love to welcome new, young players to the team, have respect for the fan base, show joy in their occupation, get the system, believe in the coaches, have fun in practice, and want to be gym rats. Dump quickly distractions. Life is too short to drink bad wine.

Wow.

8. Add veterans to the team via shorter term deals as free agents. Signing long-term, expensive deals for vets is very risky. We try to add vets to the mix for two year or three year deals. They fill in around our young core. They are very important for leadership, but they must complement the young core (NOT try to overtake them or be paid more than them). Identify and protect the core. Add veterans to complement them, not visa versa.

"Signing long-term, expensive deals for vets is very risky." THEN WHY DID YOU LET SUMMER 2016 SIGNINGS HAPPEN???

9. Measure and improve. Have shared metrics--know what the progress is--and where it ranks on the timeline-- be honest in all appraisals; don't be afraid to trade young assets for other draft picks to build back end backlog-- know the aging of contracts-- protect "optionality" to make trades at deadlines or in off season; never get in cap jail. Having dry powder is very important to make needed moves.

"Never get in cap jail." Enjoy your sentence.

10. Never settle--never rest--keep on improving. Around the edges to the plan, have monthly, quarterly and annual check ups. Refresh the plan when needed but for the right reasons-- "how are we doing against our metrics of success and where are we on our path to a championship." Never listen to bloggers, media, so called experts--to thine own self be true. Enjoy the ride.

This "plan" worked for Caps but you don't care about Wiz at all. **** off.

Ted & Ernie are so awful.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I am torn about continuing to follow the team, a hellish and very real possibility is that we are facing a complete rebuild with Ernie at the helm for the next 5-6 years, our own Groundhog Day.

Ted: "There's no way you can blame Ernie for the bad luck with Wall's injury. Obviously, Ernie deserves to lead the rebuild. Where did I leave my copy of the 10-point plan?"

Double bottom line time.

Sent from my SM-J337T using RealGM mobile app

[Eli Babak]

Dear payitforward, it's time to update your list.

Ted let Ernie trade Porter so I guess nothing's gonna change. I don't know why I even keep following this team. Do you know why they became my favorite team? I started watching basketball back in 2011 and got this NBA 2K video game. I started MyCareer with a center and was totally clueless about rules etc. Well, I got drafted by the Wizards and decided they're my favorite team. What's also funny is that I was athletic big but had no skills so it would've been such a #SoWizards move irl as well.

Going through the rebuild around Wall wasn't that bad because I didn't watch games that often and just didn't know that much about NBA. Nowadays I'm a geek and I can't go through another one with Ernie as the leader.

[lastemp3ror]

Ernie isn’t going anywhere soon. If he was, You wouldn’t let him be in charge of trading players to begin the tank mode we are about to go through.


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[tontoz]

Another rebuild for EG.

Look at other teams that are winning without any top 3 picks. When was the last time Toronto had a top 3 pick? The Nets traded all their picks years ago in a desperate win now strategy, it blew up in their face, and they are still better than us.

We have 3 guys drafted in the top 3. All three panned out well and we resigned them to max deals. All 3 guys are in their prime yet here we are again in rebuild mode. Unreal.

I checked out last year so it doesn't bother me that much, but I have to wonder what would have to happen for EG to finally get fired.

[queridiculo]

Ernie isn’t going anywhere soon. If he was, You wouldn’t let him be in charge of trading players to begin the tank mode we are about to go through.

That was my take away following the Oubre deal. No way you let a lameduck GM make those kind of decisions.

These moves are sanctioned from the top and they're all part of the plan Ernie keeps getting credit for following.

[queridiculo]

Dear payitforward, it's time to update your list.

Ted let Ernie trade Porter so I guess nothing's gonna change. I don't know why I even keep following this team. Do you know why they became my favorite team? I started watching basketball back in 2011 and got this NBA 2K video game. I started MyCareer with a center and was totally clueless about rules etc. Well, I got drafted by the Wizards and decided they're my favorite team. What's also funny is that I was athletic big but had no skills so it would've been such a #SoWizards move irl as well.

Going through the rebuild around Wall wasn't that bad because I didn't watch games that often and just didn't know that much about NBA. Nowadays I'm a geek and I can't go through another one with Ernie as the leader.

That is the saddest story I ever heard #soWizards

Just imagine how differently your life would have been if you decided to reload the game for a re-draft and got picked up by the Warriors!

I became a Bullets fan hot of the heels of being a Jordan/Bulls stan.

That Bulls era was coming to an end, I was a huge Webber fan and always had a keen interest in the Bullets because of Harvey Grant, the twin brother of my second favorite Bulls player, Horace Grant.

The Webber trade kickstarted me as a Bullets fan and it wasn't too long into my tenure that I got my first kick in the balls with the terrible Mitch Richmond, Otis Thorpe deal.

[nate33]

I think we should all take a moment to contemplate the staggering ineptitude of Ernie Grunfeld.

This team is going to finish in the bottom eight. Going forward, they have literally 3 able-bodied players under contract: Beal Mahinmi and Brown. But because of the deadweight contracts of Wall and Howard, the team will have $80M in salary obligations. Furthermore, they have already given away their second round pick in the next four drafts.

Their only means of acquiring competent players is free agency. But what free agent wants to come play for a franchise that is doomed for the next four years? Anyone they get, including Sato and Bryant, will probably come at a premium price.

All of this could be forgivable if the team was coming off a long championship run. Elite teams often have to mortgage the future to keep their championship run alive. But the Wizards are not elite, and have never been elite. During their "run", they never once won 50 games, never once finished in the top 4 in the standings, and never once made it to the Conference Finals.

How does Ernie Grunfeld still have a job?

[Ruzious]

Simple question for Ernie & Ted from the fan base, What in the bleep is your plan???

Why do you hate your fanbase?

[queridiculo]

Simple question for Ernie & Ted from the fan base, What in the bleep is your plan???

Why do you hate your fanbase?

Duh, that's the whole point of having a secret plan.

[pancakes3]

if you're EG, wouldn't you be personally tired of failing? you're 63, you've been sh*t at your job since 2003 and you're staring down the barrel of another 3-5 years of awfulness. i'd retire out of sheer embarrassment and exhaustion if i were him.

[trast66]

Failure?! In Ted/Ernie mind these moves have made the team better this year and now have more flexibility going forward. This team is going for the playoffs, no tanking here. They wish Otto and Markieff the best, they were part of best performance by the franchise since the 70's, but needed to move on to get better players this year and make the playoffs. They are accomplishing all this despite the "bad luck" with John and Dwight. They want to resign everyone left on the roster for next season, run that group back with Scott Brooks. The goal this year and every year is the playoffs, no excuses, except bad luck. This strategy will result in Monumental maximizing its profits.

[FAH1223]

I think we should all take a moment to contemplate the staggering ineptitude of Ernie Grunfeld.

This team is going to finish in the bottom eight. Going forward, they have literally 3 able-bodied players under contract: Beal Mahinmi and Brown. But because of the deadweight contracts of Wall and Howard, the team will have $80M in salary obligations. Furthermore, they have already given away their second round pick in the next four drafts.

Their only means of acquiring competent players is free agency. But what free agent wants to come play for a franchise that is doomed for the next four years? Anyone they get, including Sato and Bryant, will probably come at a premium price.

All of this could be forgivable if the team was coming off a long championship run. Elite teams often have to mortgage the future to keep their championship run alive. But the Wizards are not elite, and have never been elite. During their "run", they never once won 50 games, never once finished in the top 4 in the standings, and never once made it to the Conference Finals.

How does Ernie Grunfeld still have a job?

Howard has a player option. Mahinmi is the deadweight contract.

[nate33]

Howard has a player option. Mahinmi is the deadweight contract.

I'm betting Howard opts in, but doesn't play more than 20 more games in a Wizards uniform (if any at all). He's damaged goods but he's going to keep cashing checks.

At least Mahinmi is physically able to play basketball and is actually a competent backup center.

[FAH1223]

Trading Otto Porter does little to fix the Wizards’ systemic, long-term issues

By Kevin Broom
Feb 7, 2019, 12:48pm EST

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images


With the Achilles tear sidelining John Wall for most of next season, the Wizards needed to get out of the luxury tax and create financial space to construct a roster for the future. The trade of Otto Porter for Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker qualifies as “something,” albeit not something that makes much sense.

In basketball terms, Porter for Portis and Parker is bad. Porter, even while having a down shooting year by his standards, made the team better. For all his perceived flaws and limitations, over the past two seasons, the Wizards went just 5-13 in games he missed (not including last night’s drubbing by the Milwaukee Bucks).

A couple years ago, Parker seemed to be on a trajectory to becoming a good player, but a second ACL tear and indifference on defense have made him borderline unplayable this season. His contract has a $20 million team option for next season, which the Wizards will decline. It would be astonishing to see him return to Washington next season.

Portis plays hard and is sometimes even effective. He’s a solid shooter with three-point range and he rebounds well, but he’s turnover prone and has been a poor defender. Last season was the best of his young career (he rated a little above average in my analysis), though his defense was problematic. This season, he’s battled injuries, but he’s young and it’s reasonable to expect improvement. The difficulty is that he’s a restricted free agent this summer, which means the Wizards will need to pay market price if they want to keep him.

Realistically, the trades (including the companion deal sending Markieff Morris to New Orleans for Wesley Johnson) don’t begin to fix what’s wrong with the Wizards. Barring an extended run of great fortune (such as winning the Zion Williamson lottery and finding multiple Thomas Bryant-like surprises), the Wizards won’t be more than a fringe playoff team until they’re finished paying Wall.

Last summer, my analysis predicted that Wall had a couple more seasons of near-peak production before his performance would decline. One of those was this year. He’ll miss the next one with the Achilles tear. When Wall gets back on the court at 30 years old, he’s going to be a whisper of what he once was. And he’s likely to continue having health issues.

Analyzing the trades is worth doing, but more pressing is what it signals about the team’s failed leadership. Ernie Grunfeld has been in charge of the franchise since the summer of 2003. Through a compendium of bad moves, squandered assets and borrowing from the future, Grunfeld constructed an expensive team that somehow lacks top-end talent and depth. The latest plan is to rebuild around Bradley Beal, but this is predicated on the delusion that Beal is an elite player.

Further, their refusal to trade older veterans like Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green is downright malpractice. They may be good guys, but neither should figure into any kind of plan for the future because they’re average players and they’re 32 and 33 years old. The likelihood of either playing this well even next season is small.

While the trades give the Wizards some space to re-sign upcoming free agents, they’re now loaded with restricted free agents likely to see significant salary increases next season. They could, in theory, renounce all of them and create $18-19 million in cap space (depending on how much the cap grows), but that would mean the departures of Tomas Satoransky, Thomas Bryant, Portis, and Sam Dekker, plus unrestricted free agents Trevor Ariza and Jeff Green. They could get another $5.6 million if Dwight Howard opts out of the second year of his contract.

That would leave them with just four players under contract: Beal, Wall, Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown.

But, the notion that the Wizards would pursue a cap space strategy is fanciful at best. The front office doesn’t believe Washington is a preferred free agent destination. They will not try recruiting an elite player with a barren roster and no maximum salary slot.

The team’s meager resources leave them vulnerable to free agent poaching. When franchises with real cap room fail to sign a premier free agent, they could turn their interest to Satoransky on a one-year deal similar to what Philadelphia did with J.J. Redick, Phoenix did with Ariza, and Orlando did a couple seasons ago with Green. When franchises with real cap room fail to sign a premier free agent, they could turn their interest to Satoransky and make him an offer too lucrative for Washington to match.

If there’s any good news for the team, it’s that the collective bargaining agreement places limits on Bryant’s earnings and put the Wizards in a strong position to retain him. Offer sheets are restricted to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception in the first year, and a five percent raise in the second. Teams could leap his salary to the maximum in years three and four of an offer sheet, but the Wizards would still be able to match. Other CBA provisions would allow the Wizards to start a new contract with Bryant at 105% of the average salary, which would be approximately $9.5 million.

This is small consolation, however. Grunfeld and Leonsis have driven the franchise into a ditch. They’re expensive, lack talent, and don’t have the resources for a quick infusion. The team’s history suggests they may keep borrowing from the future by trading draft picks for players now, but these are short-term fixes destined to fail.

Trading Porter in a salary dump is yet one more example of their front office failure. The team’s on-court prospects won’t change until Leonsis pursues what they need most: new, competent leadership to provide the franchise with strategic direction that isn’t based on job preservation and delusion.

[BigA]

He may very well be caught in the gravity of the Grunfeld Fluke Flux. There is a powerful field around our GM where, when his job is in jeopardy, he manages to pull off a wild card out of nowhere and land a player who for a short term period of time plays out of their mind. Saving Ernie's job, saving their career, earning fan acclaim, earning a big deal on the renewal. And then flaming out. Ruining our cap and future.

You know we are still paying Martell Webster this year?

Thought this observation by doclinkin needed to be brought here from another thread. Will the GFF carry the Wizards to the playoffs?

[Ruzious]

Gotta consider - If Parker helps get the Wiz in the playoffs (taking us out of the lottery) and then leaves via free agency, isn't that really worst case scenario, while EG and Ted think of it as best case scenario?

[BigA]

Gotta consider - If Parker helps get the Wiz in the playoffs (taking us out of the lottery) and then leaves via free agency, isn't that really worst case scenario, while EG and Ted think of it as best case scenario?

The funniest thing about "the plan," is looking through and seeing how almost everything Ernie and Ted have done is antithetical to "the plan."

[Ruzious]

Howard has a player option. Mahinmi is the deadweight contract.

I'm betting Howard opts in, but doesn't play more than 20 more games in a Wizards uniform (if any at all). He's damaged goods but he's going to keep cashing checks.

At least Mahinmi is physically able to play basketball and is actually a competent backup center.

Meh, I don't want either one, and one costs a lot more than the other. Mahinmi is a terrible basketball player - at this point there's no hope for him, and there is hope for Howard. Not that I want Howard, but there's just no advantage for Ian - no matter how you slice it.

[FAH1223]

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