Wizards 2019 Draft thread. (Tank for Zion, or OTHER NAME HERE)

[Dat2U]

2. Is anyone likely to be there at #6 whom you'd rather have than all 3 of Bitadze, Windler & Ponds? I think you've said Garland. Given the little time he's had to show himself on the court even at the college level, are you sure you'd take him instead of this trade? Anyone else?

In this particular draft, after Zion & Morant, all bets are off. A trade down scenario is enviable to me as I don't see a ton of difference between who's projected at 3 and who's projected at 22.

In a trade down scenario I'd like at least one of: Garland, Bitadze, Herro & Clarke. Doesn't matter who. All are on the same tier to me.

[Ruzious]

If we're drafting 6, 7, or 8, I think ya gotta take a chance on either Bol Bol or Doumbaya or Clarke - rather than pick a clonish swingman or even trading down. Gotta take a chance at greatness when it's there - even though there are risks. But... if all 3 are there, then yeah - see if you can safely trade down.

[payitforward]

...I'm just saying that the trade down for more picks thing only works up to a point. Once you get past the middle of the 2nd round, the pickings are pretty slim. I'd rather have the 35th pick than trade it for the 49th and 53rd pick.

For every Monte Morris you can find, I can find you a Thomas Bryant.

Absolutely! I mean... it can happen that such a trade is a good idea, but it would be reasonably rare.

Looking at it analytically, my point is that the decline of player talent as you move down the draft doesn't resemble a straight line. & that its slope from 4 down through the mid 30s is quite shallow. Which is why the 2-fer trade works so well across that range.

But that doesn't imply that the shallow slope continues to infinity! Past a certain point in R2 it seems to be the differential skill of organizations that makes it possible to draft good players at a high rate. Supplemented by plain good luck.

OTOH, a case like Monte Morris also provides another insight. This was a guy who had terrific college numbers, clearly had a high bbiq (from watching college video), wasn't afraid of the moment, & looked like he might be able to step in & contribute quickly. Yet, he barely snuck into the end of the draft!

There is clearly a prejudice towards youth, 1-and-done players. The prejudice makes sense in re: the very very best prospects -- what would they be waiting for when 10s of millions of dollars are available NOW? But, to me at least, it looks like it's gone way too far & stands in the way of objective analysis.

(There's your model for thinking about Dedric Lawson -- &, at a different spot in the draft, about Clarke as well.)

When you see that some factor is distorting an investment market (which is what the draft is), the thing to do is to bet against that trend. It's not how one of your stocks is doing that matters but how the whole portfolio is performing. & this might be a good metaphor for understanding why I almost always want to trade down.

Now, rosters are limited, & accordingly there's a limit to how much you can do it. But that's not an issue for the Washington Wizards at present. We've got plenty of room, & we're not threatening to contend any time soon either. Yet we do have a $$ problem in our salary structure. We need to be amassing as much low-cost talent as possible.

Make sense?

[TGW]

Bol Bol or Goga?

[Dat2U]

Bol Bol or Goga?

This is a good debate. Bol Bol definitely has the higher offensive upside. Bol could be potentially a devastating offensive option with his skill/b-ball IQ level. Bitadze clearly has the higher floor because he has none of Bol's injury risks. Nor are there questions regarding whether Goga is coachable and his willingness to defend.

Neither is going to be a guy you wanna switch onto guards on D but Goga will at least try. Bol basically refused. Both can deter shots at the rim.

I give the edge to Bitadze because of his development over the past year and he's a well rounded prospect. Has a solid post game and has expanded his range. The comparisons to Kanter & Vucevic are favorable with the fact that Bitadze is much further along defensively in his development than Enes/Nik were in their draft process.

However I cannot understate that Bol is 7-2, can score at all 3 levels and can see the floor well enough to consistently make good decisions with the ball in his hands. He'a a unique prospect. He's in a rarefied air skill wise. Guys with height and who have ++ skill generally don't bust. Even non-athletes like Nikola Jokic, Marc Gasol or even Kelly Olynyk. But none of those guys had the stubbornness or injury risks Bol has. I think his medicals/interviews make or break him as a prospect. Without access to that, it's hard for me to make a case that he's clearly the guy.

Even with the risks Bol is worth a late lottery pick in my opinion. I would not be upset if he was our pick if we landed 6-8 even with my slight preference for Goga as I'm not totally opposed to the high risk, high reward strategy given our current situation.

[JWizmentality]

Bol Bol has Greg Oden written all over him. What's with this team's and fans' obsession with long limbed, awkwardly mobile players?

[payitforward]

...What's with this team's and fans' obsession with long limbed, awkwardly mobile players?

Do you mean the NBA side of the franchise or the WNBA side?

[payitforward]

I don't like the trade. I don't mind trading down, but once you get below 20, it's a total crapshoot. And picks below 45 are no better than undrafted walk-ons.

I might trade our #6 for the 14, 20 and 22, but not for the 14, 22 and 51....

... I would agree the #51 pick has minimal trade value. ...

No question: the #51 pick has minimal trade value (though, keep in mind that "minimal" is not the same as "zero").

No question as well that it can bring you a very good player. We all know the list of guys taken in the last 10 of the draft, so I won't repeat it here....

To me, nate, there's one point you leave out, & it puzzles me that you do: even if we assume that there are, say, 15 players of approximately equal value available at #51, so that you do have a chance to get an equivalent talent undrafted, that still does not mean that the pick is worthless -- not by a long shot.

W/ the pick, you get to choose the one you want, & he's yours. If, OTOH, you have to sign an undrafted player that you think has a shot to be good as a FA, you are very likely to be competing with other teams. This is non-trivial (esp. given the list of players I didn't repeat).

This year, I'd translate that as the possibility of either Dedric Lawson or Shamorie Ponds being available. If one or more of them were there, wouldn't you want the opportunity to seal the deal of acquiring him simply by writing his name on the piece of paper you give the runner who takes it up to the podium? Rather than hoping that a) no one picks him, & b) his agent doesn't sign him to a different team.

Seems pretty straightforward to me. Of course, like any player at any draft spot, Lawson might *not* be there at #51. Again, as with any draft position, you have to multiple scenarios in mind &, ideally, multiple targets. No question that's not easy, & I'm happy to admit that it gets really hard down in the last half of R2. But -- 2 points: 1) NBA FO people get paid to be good at their jobs; the fact that it's hard is no excuse for doing a bad job, & 2) if I know that Monte Morris is a high-value prospect, what excuse do the FOs have that picked badly in the previous 8-10 picks?

...picks below 45 are no better than undrafted walk-ons.

Take a look at what Sterling Brown has done in year 2 w/ the Bucks.

I'm not disagreeing for the sake of argument. The Wizards are incredibly talent poor. Yet we have to rebuild. Can't afford to ignore any source of talent or to do a bad job at any aspect of talent search.

[JWizmentality]

...What's with this team's and fans' obsession with long limbed, awkwardly mobile players?

Do you mean the NBA side of the franchise or the WNBA side?

I don't watch the WNBA.

[payitforward]

Seems like you didn't get my joke ("long-limbed ...mobile") -- then again... it wasn't much of a joke!

[AFM]

PIF if I ever catch you trying to be funny again I'm gonna spank your ass complete erotic style

[nate33]

[Dat2U]

Back in 2010, I got the feeling the Wizards would land the #1 pick. Of course I felt the same in 2011 and was completely wrong. I felt like we would move up in 2012, we did. Didnt think we'd move up in 2013 but we somehow did. I get the feeling we will move up again... but not necessarily land #1.

I thought Memphis for most of the second half of the year would be one to land Zion, today for some reason I get the vibe New Orleans will land the pick.

I will honestly be surprised if a team in the 6-9 range doesn't end up with Zion.

[Ruzious]

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing we get the 2nd pick.

[Dat2U]

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing we get the 2nd pick.

Ja could have a better career than Zion. I couldn't bring myself to pick Ja over Zion but Ja's IQ and feel are just so advanced for a 19 year old PG. I'm talking Chris Paul level-advanced and Ja is an other worldly athlete to boot.

My biggest fear (slightly lessened with EG gone) is that because of Wall's presence we'll prioritize Barrett over Ja. Yikes!

[Ruzious]

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing we get the 2nd pick.

Ja could have a better career than Zion. I couldn't bring myself to pick Ja over Zion but Ja's IQ and feel are just so advanced for a 19 year old PG. I'm talking Chris Paul level-advanced and Ja is an other worldly athlete to boot.

My biggest fear (slightly lessened with EG gone) is that because of Wall's presence we'll prioritize Barrett over Ja. Yikes!

The thing I do like about RJ, you don't notice it much since he played next to Zion, but he is physically strong and tough - at 18 years old. He's a 3 in the NBA, and he's going to have a physical advantage over most 3's - he'll either be stronger or more athletic or both. He's a better caliber athlete than a guy like Evan Turner. If he can get with a good shooting coach, he'll be multi time all-star. But yeah, he's clearly behind Ja.

[Dat2U]

Bol Bol is just a unicorn offensively. Even without any extra weight his skill level will allow him to score efficiently away from the rim! Espite all the stated risks, I'm wavering back & forth on him and Bitadze.

[Dat2U]

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing we get the 2nd pick.

Ja could have a better career than Zion. I couldn't bring myself to pick Ja over Zion but Ja's IQ and feel are just so advanced for a 19 year old PG. I'm talking Chris Paul level-advanced and Ja is an other worldly athlete to boot.

My biggest fear (slightly lessened with EG gone) is that because of Wall's presence we'll prioritize Barrett over Ja. Yikes!

The thing I do like about RJ, you don't notice it much since he played next to Zion, but he is physically strong and tough - at 18 years old. He's a 3 in the NBA, and he's going to have a physical advantage over most 3's - he'll either be stronger or more athletic or both. He's a better caliber athlete than a guy like Evan Turner. If he can get with a good shooting coach, he'll be multi time all-star. But yeah, he's clearly behind Ja.

My biggest gripe on Barrett is his shot. The worst part about his struggles is it's not is form. Its repeatable, its clean and quick enough. The results just vary wildly. I question his touch which other scouts have questioned considering his struggles at the FT line but then he displays a real nice touch absorbing contact at the rim. So I'm like I

[miller31time]

Anxiously awaiting Ji to start a lottery thread minutes before the Draft Lottery guaranteeing us the 1st pick.

[Ruzious]

Bol Bol is just a unicorn offensively. Even without any extra weight his skill level will allow him to score efficiently away from the rim! Espite all the stated risks, I'm wavering back & forth on him and Bitadze.

He does things offensively that are almost freighteningly impressive for a player his size. I've never seen anything like him. He's a better prospect than Porzingis, imo. But the injury and durability issue is always going to be there. I have him as the 4th best player in the draft - behind Zion, Ja, and Garland.